Hybrid Format

Smoothing trends and seasonality in short term baseline mortality forecasts

Ainhoa-Elena Leger (University of Southern Denmark)
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), October 25, 2023

Hybrid Talk Seminar, October 25, 2023 from 11am to 12pm (CEST)

Abstract

Excess mortality is a useful measure to quantify the death toll of various health shocks, from the impact of seasonal influenza to the effects of heatwaves, and pandemics of infectious diseases. Methodological choices about the model to forecast baseline mortality in the absence of a shock can lead to varying estimates of excess death. Starting from modulation models for seasonal death counts developed by Eilers et al. 2008 and combining them with the P-splines forecasting approach developed by Currie et al. 2004, a forecasting strategy is proposed for baseline seasonal patterns. Different specifications of the model are compared. An illustration is shown for Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden in 2007-2023, using monthly data from national statistical offices. Preliminary results show the forecasts obtained modelling smooth trends and smooth seasonality components.

About the speaker

Ainhoa is a second-year PhD student at the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics at the University of Southern Denmark. She holds a BSc and a MSc in Statistics from the University of Padua. She pursued graduate training at the European Doctoral School of Demography. She is interested in developing statistical methods for demographic research, and her current work focuses on short-term mortality forecasting and the estimation of excess death.