October 16, 2015 | News | Suessmilch Lecture

Agent-based modeling in demography: Epistemological and methodological challenges

On October 26, 2015, demographer Jakub Bijak of the University of Southampton, Great Britain, will give a lecture at the MPIDR. He will talk about the epistemological and methodological challenges demographers face when using agent-based modeling.

Abstract
Agent-based models and other computer-based complex simulations offer population scientists many new and exciting research possibilities. In particular, in a discipline that is notorious for its lack of strong theories explaining the phenomena of interest, the prospect of generating explanatory mechanisms through simulations is very appealing. However, with regard to offering practical solutions to filling the theoretical void, the agent-based methodology is still in its infancy. In this lecture, I will discuss the main epistemological and methodological challenges of agent-based demography. In particular, I will focus on two interrelated areas: the sources of our knowledge on social mechanisms, and the relations between simulation models and statistical inference. In conclusion, I will sketch the outline of a model-based research program for the future, which would take advantage of the possibilities offered by complex computational modeling, whilst still remaining true to the empirical tradition of population sciences.

About the presenter
Dr. Jakub Bijak is an Associate Professor in Demography at the University of Southampton. He holds a PhD from Warsaw School of Economics. Before joining Southampton, Jakub worked in the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research in Warsaw, and in the Demographic Unit of the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. His research interests encompass applications of quantitative methods in population studies, with focus on population forecasting, agent-based modelling in population studies, migration, demography of armed conflict, and mortality. In particular, Jakub is interested in quantifying demographic uncertainty and its impact on decision making. He has published Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View (Springer), and co-authored over fifty journal articles and book chapters, and over forty other contributions. He is a laureate of the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) and the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015), obtained respectively for contributions to Polish and European demography.

Time and Venue
Monday, October 26, 2015, 2:30 p.m. in the Institute's Auditorium

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The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.