December 01, 2015 | News | Suessmilch Lecture

Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries

Population Density, Fertility, and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries
On December 8, David de la Croix of the Université catholique Louvain will give a talk at the MPIDR. He will explain how population density and fertility are connected in developing countries.

Abstract

Whether population tends to a long-run stationary value depends on demographic convergence forces. One of such forces is when fertility rates are negatively affected by population density. We test the existence of such effect in 44 developing countries, matching georeferenced data from the demographic and health survey for half a million woman with population density grid. When we correct for selection and endogeneity bias and control for the usual determinants of fertility such as education and income, a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer goes with a decrease in fertility by about 0.6 child. Duration analysis shows that age at marriage and age at first birth both increase with density.

About the person

David de la Croix is Professor of Economics and member of both Institut de Recherches Économiques (IRES) and Center for Operations Research (CORE) at Université catholique Louvain, Belgium. He has taught on a visiting basis at UCLA, Copenhagen, Aix-Marseille, Nanterre, Capetown, Sao Paulo and Rostock. He is the instigator and editor-in-chief of the Journal of Demographic Economics, and was associate editor for the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, the Journal of Development Economics, and the Journal of Public Economic Theory. His research interests cover demographic economics, human capital, conflict between generations, and growth. His choice of topics reveals that he is mostly interested in understanding households’ incentives and how they shape the future of our societies. 

Time and Venue

Tuesday, December 8, 4 p.m., in the Institute's Auditorium