January 06, 2016 | News | New Publication

The impact of violence on Mexico’s life expectancy

Improvements in public health, nutrition and living standards during the second half of the 20th century helped increase life expectancy in Mexico. That trend slowed in the beginning of the new century and has been moving in reverse since 2005. This is the main finding of a study, that EDSD-doctoral student José Manuel Aburto and colleagues from Mexico, the United States and Denmark published today in the journal Health Affairs. They estimated that stagnation in life expectancy in Mexico has mainly been due to increases in homicide mortality rates.

As in most Latin American countries, life expectancy in Mexico grew steadily over the second half of the 20th century. From 1940 to 2000 life expectancy increased by about four years per decade. This trend was reversed from 2005 onwards rather abruptly: women experienced small increases in life expectancy, while mortality among men increased dramatically, leading to large reductions in life expectancy in all 32 states. Importantly, this period coincides with the enactment of a major health reform, which gave access to medical care to everybody. With his study published today in Health Affairs, José Manuel Aburto and colleagues investigated the impact on life expectancy of conditions amenable to medical service - those sensitive to public health policies and changes in behaviors, homicide and diabetes- by analyzing mortality trends at the state level.

The researchers found that the increase in male mortality is partly attributable to diabetes. But the bigger part of the increase was due to the unprecedented rise in homicides. The homicide rates in the country more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, and in some areas shot up incredibly high. For example, in the northern Mexican region, Chihuahua (the northern Mexican state bordering New Mexico and Texas in the United States) experienced a loss of life expectancy of about three years from 2005 to 2010.

Although most people in Mexico have access to health services through public health programs and institutions, large health disparities remain among states. Even more worrisome is the harmful effect of homicide mortality on population health, “ The rise of Mexico’s homicide rate since 2005 reversed the public health improvements achieved in the first decade of the 21st century”, says José Manuel. It is clear that policies implemented by the Mexican government in the past 10 years have not controlled the high levels of violence in the country. These policies should be discontinued and new strategies incorporating a public health perspective should be implemented to minimize the effect of violence on the health status of the Mexican population, the authors concluded.

José Manuel Aburto is a Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research fellow at the European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) at Sapienza University, Rome. He is supervised by MPIDR scientists Alyson van Raalte and Tim Riffe.

The European Doctoral School of Demography (EDSD) is an 11-month program organized by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR). The program is open to students with a master's degree, and who are enrolled in the first year of a European PhD program. Students acquire a solid knowledge base on the causes and consequences of demographic change, population data, statistical and mathematical demography, modeling, simulation, and forecasting. Leading international experts in the fields of study covered provide instruction.

More Information

Homicides in Mexico reversed life expectancy gains for men and slowed them for women, 2000–10, José M. Aburto, Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, Victor M. García-Guerrero, and Vladimir Canudas-Romo,  Health Affairs 35, No. 1 (2016), DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0068