Journal Article

Oldest-old mortality in China

Zeng, Y., Vaupel, J. W.

Demographic Research, 8:7, 215-244 (2003)


Keywords: China, age, models, mortality


We find that the Kannisto model, a two-parameter logistic formula, fits Han Chinese death rates at oldest-old ages better than the Gompertz and four other models. Chinese death rates appear to be roughly similar to Swedish and Japanese rates after age 97 for both males and females. Because reports of age seem to be serviceably reliable up to age 100 and perhaps age 105 in China, we think that this convergence may be mainly due to mortality selection in the heterogeneous Chinese population. We show that in China, as in developed countries, the rate of increase in mortality with age decelerates at very old ages.