Arbeitsbereich

Bevölkerungsdynamik und Nachhaltiges Wohlbefinden

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team

Projekt

Demographic Perspectives on Kin Availability and Kin Loss

Mallika Snyder, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni, Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal, Tom Theile, Carolina Coimbra Vieira, Benjamin-Samuel Schlueter, Sha Jiang, Ivan Williams (University of Buenos Aires, Argentinien)

Ausführliche Beschreibung

The study of family structures has a long tradition in demography. Early formal demographic work aimed to determine the degree to which population change influences kinship networks. Yet the implementation of demographic models for early kinship was hampered by limited data availability and restricted computational power. The same was true of subsequent work that used demographic microsimulation to model kinship structures. Meanwhile, the question of how kinship networks are structured has gained further relevance in the context of rapid and global family change.

The degree to which individuals have access to kinship resources varies greatly and is shaped by past and present population dynamics. While some countries are experiencing rapid population aging and demographic decline, others continue to have high levels of fertility and mortality. These dynamics shape not only how many kin an individual might have, but also the likelihood that the individual will experience their loss. 

We study how demographic change affects the availability of kinship resources throughout the life course and the exposure to kin loss within the family through the deaths of relatives or through other ways in which kin may be "lost" (e.g., disappeared persons, family dissolution, migration). For our analysis, we develop new measures to quantify population-level inequalities in kin availability and kin mortality under different demographic regimes. Methods for estimating shared lifetimes between different kin types across time and over the life course are, for example, particularly needed in low-income settings where traditional analyses cannot be performed given the inadequacy of existing data for direct estimation. Measures of the frequency and timing of kin losses matter because these events have long-lasting negative effects for bereaved relatives, as empirical research has shown. However, we lack a clear understanding of the demographic dynamics underlying this phenomenon. The project also explores the potential of using novel data sources (e.g., crowdsourced online genealogies and social media data) and computational approaches (e.g., demographic microsimulation) to quantify kinship dynamics in populations around the world.

Our recent research has focused on: (a) estimating the long-run impact of changing population dynamics on kin availability and loss, with a focus on the implications for caregivers and bereaved relatives; (b) highlighting the demographic composition and potential support needs of individuals bereaved as a result of cause-specific mortality (such as through COVID-19 excess mortality, violence, or conflict); and (c) methodological studies that seek to use digital trace data and computational methods more effectively in order to explore these and other questions related to population dynamics and inequalities.

Erwartete Zahl der Todesfälle von Nachkommen im Laufe des mütterlichen Lebens für Frauen, die 1950 in drei ausgewählten Ländern geboren wurden

Erwartete Zahl der Todesfälle von Nachkommen im Laufe des mütterlichen Lebens für Frauen, die 1950 in drei ausgewählten Ländern geboren wurden (schwarze Punkte, nicht kumulative Zählungen auf Bevölkerungsebene). Die farbigen Flächen zeigen das Alter der Nachkommen beim Tod. Der Verlust von Nachkommen konzentriert sich in Schweden auf das höhere Alter, während er in Guatemala und Angola jüngere Mütter betrifft (beachten Sie die unterschiedlichen y-Achsen in den einzelnen Feldern). © Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Basellini, U.; Zagheni, E.: When do parents bury a child? Quantifying uncertainty in the parental age at offspring loss MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-016. (2022)

Publikationen

Abrams, L. R.; Jiang, S.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Acosta, E.; Zagheni, E.:

Adverse mortality trends have increased the number bereaved in the United States

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)    

Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Basellini, U.; Zagheni, E.:

When do mothers bury a child? Heterogeneity in the maternal age at offspring loss

Population Studies 79:1, 45–57. (2025)    

Calderón-Bernal, L. P.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Zagheni, E.:

Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation

European Journal of Population 41:34, 1–30. (2025)    

Jiang, S.; Liang, H.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Zagheni, E.:

Human capital investment helps mitigate family caregiving challenges in aging China

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-021. (2025)    

Jiang, S.; Zuo, W.; Guo, Z.; Tuljapurkar, S.:

Changing demographic rates reshape kinship networks

Demography 62:3, 899–922. (2025)    

Potter, A. L.; Schlueter, B.-S.; Alexander, M. J.; Yang, C. J.; Kiang, M. V.:

Youths experiencing parental death due to cancer

JAMA Network Open 8:7, 1–5. (2025)    

Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Acosta, E.; Zagheni, E.; Williams, N. E.:

The long-lasting effect of armed conflicts deaths on the living: quantifying family bereavement

Science Advances 10:30, 1–12. (2024)    

Chong, M.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Alexander, M. J.; Zagheni, E.:

Correcting historical mortality rate bias in big crowd-sourced online genealogies

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-005. (2022)    

Coimbra Vieira, C.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Nepomuceno, M. R.; Theile, T.:

Desaparecidxs: characterizing the population of missing children using Twitter

In: WebSci '22: proceedings of the 14th ACM Web Science Conference, Barcelona, Spain, 26-29 June 2022, 185–190. New York: Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). (2022)    

Snyder, M.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Williams, I.; Zagheni, E.:

Estimates from 31 countries show the significant impact of COVID-19 excess mortality on the incidence of family bereavement

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119:26, e2202686119–e2202686119. (2022)    

Stelter, R.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

Representativeness is crucial for inferring demographic processes from online genealogies: evidence from lifespan dynamics

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119:10, e2120455119–e2120455119. (2022)    

Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Kolk, M.; Zagheni, E.:

Women's experience of child death: a global demographic perspective

Demography 58:5, 1715–1735. (2021)    

Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Mason, C.; Zagheni, E.:

The “Sandwich Generation” revisited: global demographic drivers of care time demands

Population and Development Review 47:4, 997–1023. (2021)    

Smith-Greenaway, E.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Trinitapoli, J.; Zagheni, E.:

Global burden of maternal bereavement: indicators of the cumulative prevalence of child loss

BMJ Global Health 6:4, e004837–e004837. (2021)    

Williams, I.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

Mortality change and its impact on child survival

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2021-001. (2021)