Arbeitsbereich

Bevölkerungsdynamik und Nachhaltiges Wohlbefinden

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team

Projekt

Cohort Perspectives on Mortality Shocks and Child Loss (Dissertation)

Geleitet von Emilio Zagheni; Maria Laura Miranda, Ugofilippo Basellini, Roland Rau; in Zusammenarbeit mit Emily Smith-Greenaway, Enrique Acosta (beide: MPIDR)

Ausführliche Beschreibung

The main goal of this doctoral dissertation is to assess how mortality shocks and structural socioeconomic inequalities shape survival and bereavement at the population and individual levels. Mortality shocks are events that occur throughout one's lifetime, and their actual impact on population-level mortality can be better assessed by adopting a cohort perspective, and thus going beyond the standard period measures that provide momentary snapshots. Furthermore, despite the recent overall decline in mortality rates, the experience of losing a child remains common in low-income countries, and there are still gaps in our understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of this phenomenon.

The first study aims to highlight the dangers of misinterpreting life expectancy losses during mortality crises. In these contexts, period life expectancy assumes that a hypothetical group of individuals would experience the extreme conditions of a crisis throughout their lives. Using the example of the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate that while period life expectancy suggests that substantial losses occurred, cohort life expectancy indicates that the pandemic led to smaller yet more interpretable and meaningful effects on the average lifespan. For instance, despite reductions in period life expectancy of up to 70 months in Mexico during the first two years of the pandemic, cohort life expectancy estimates reveal considerably smaller reductions of up to four months for the most affected cohorts born in the 1950-60s. The figure below shows the discrepancies between the reductions estimated by the two measures in six countries. Unlike period life expectancy, which provides only a momentary snapshot, cohort life expectancy indicates how mortality shocks should be interpreted within the broader trajectory of a cohort’s mortality experience, while taking into account the different life stages and exposure duration to the crisis.

The aim of the second study is to provide a more comprehensive understanding of disparities in mothers’ experiences of child loss. Despite the recent overall decline in mortality rates, parental bereavement – the experience of losing a child – remains common in low-income countries and can have profound consequences for parents. This study explores the relationship between maternal education and the overall composition of bereavement experiences, including the timing and number of losses. For this analysis, we restrict our research to Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, regions known for having high mortality and health inequalities. Using a life course perspective, this study examines child loss as a series of evolving experiences, rather than as a single event. Additionally, by examining the relationship between education and maternal bereavement, the study reveals how structural inequalities are embedded in the life course, leading to cumulative advantages or disadvantages for mothers. The third study is yet to be fully developed, but will focus on the effect of educational expansion on reducing the prevalence of child loss in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Publikationen

Miranda, M. L.; Basellini, U.; Acosta, E.; Zagheni, E.:

How period life expectancy can distort our interpretation of mortality crises

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-033. (2025)