Arbeitsbereich

Bevölkerungsdynamik und Nachhaltiges Wohlbefinden

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team

Projekt

Forecasting Individual-Level Mortality

Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni, Maria Laura Miranda (MPIDR / Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brasilien), Monica Alexander (University of Toronto, Kanada), Luca Badolato (The Ohio State University, Columbus, Vereinigte Staaten), Ari Gabriel Decter-Frain (Cornell University, Ithaca, Vereinigte Staaten), Nicolas Irons (University of Washington, Seattle, Vereinigte Staaten), Erin Walk (MPIDR / University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Vereinigte Staaten), Elnura Zhalieva (Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, Vereinigte Arabische Emirate)

In this project, we provide novel insights into the predictability of individual lifespans, employing both classic statistical models and emerging machine learning approaches. We focus on prediction accuracy and inequalities in predictability across socioeconomic groups.  Ausführliche Beschreibung

Prediction accuracy of individual-level lifespan for different models by gender, race and ethnicity, and education

Integrated Brier Score and Mean Area Under the Curve by gender (panel a.), race and ethnicity (panel b.), and education (panel c.). Prediction accuracy across models is worse for Men, non-Hispanic Blacks and low-educated individuals as compared to other socioeconomic groups. © © Badolato et al. (2023)

Publikationen

Badolato, L.; Decter-Frain, A. G.; Irons, N. J.; Miranda, M. L.; Walk, E.; Zhalieva, E.; Alexander, M. J.; Basellini, U.; Zagheni, E.:

The limits of predicting individual-level longevity: insights from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study

Demography 63:1, 351–374. (2026)    

Li, Z. R.; Wu, Z.; Chen, I.; Clark, S. J.:

Bayesian nested latent class models for cause-of-death assignment using verbal autopsies across multiple domains

Annals of Applied Statistics 18:2, 1137–1159. (2024)    

Badolato, L.; Decter-Frain, A. G.; Irons, N. J.; Miranda, M. L.; Walk, E.; Zhalieva, E.; Alexander, M. J.; Basellini, U.; Zagheni, E.:

The limits of predicting individual-level longevity

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2023-008. (2023)