Arbeitsbereich
Bevölkerungsdynamik und Nachhaltiges Wohlbefinden
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Projekt
Climate Change and Population Dynamics: Estimating the Implications for Health and Mortality (Dissertation)
Vinod Joseph Kannankeril Joseph, Muttarak Raya (University of Bologna, Italien), Emilio Zagheni, Risto Conte Keivabu
Ausführliche Beschreibung
The first study of this dissertation project synthesizes existing evidence on climate change and population dynamics in the Global South, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting how environmental stressors influence fertility, mortality, and migration patterns. It reviews the evidence and sketches out the mechanisms through which climate change influences population dynamics. Furthermore, it pinpoints the unequal burden borne by low-income countries and the need to integrate climate considerations into demographic research and policy. Climate change increases mortality risks via health and livelihood shocks and drives both internal and cross-border migration. The most vulnerable communities often experience “trapped” situations in which they are constrained by limited resources and adaptive capacity. This study underscores the need to systematically integrate climate considerations into demographic research and welfare state planning in order to foster equitable adaptation and resilience strategies across the Global South.
The second study empirically investigates temperature-related mortality among older adults in Italy. It focuses on the harvesting effect of short-term mortality displacement following extreme temperature events. Using province-level mortality data combined with high-resolution temperature data and other meteorological indicators, Poisson regression models reveal that both extreme cold and heat substantially increase mortality risks in Italy. The findings indicate that high winter mortality reduces vulnerability to heat in subsequent summers. However, extremely hot days still lead to significant increases in deaths, which shows that stronger public health measures are needed to help people adapt.
The third study empirically analyzes the impact of thermal stress on child health outcomes in India by linking climate reanalysis data with Demographic and Health Survey data. Logistic regression models show that the likelihood of acute undernutrition (wasting and underweight) increases significantly with higher heat exposure, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged households, whereas stunting levels decrease. The analysis identifies heterogeneity by sex, residence, maternal education, and access to electricity. The findings underscore the role of heat stress as a determinant of acute child malnutrition, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Integrating climate information into public health and nutrition programs is critical to safeguarding child growth and resilience in a warming climate.
Collectively, these studies demonstrate that climate change is not merely a background condition, but an important factor shaping population dynamics and health outcomes. Demographic research has traditionally focused on socioeconomic development, health care improvements, and economic growth as the main determinants of mortality decline, fertility transitions, and migration patterns. This thesis points out that climatic factors may also play a substantial and independent role in these processes. The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated climate and population policies to protect vulnerable groups and ensure sustainable demographic futures in a changing climate.
Publikationen
Kannankeril Joseph, V. J.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-011. (2026)
Kannankeril Joseph, V. J.; Conte Keivabu, R.; Muttarak, R.; Zagheni, E.; Mazzuco, S.:
European Journal of Population 42, 1–37. (2026)
Kannankeril Joseph, V. J.; Conte Keivabu, R.; Muttarak, R.; Zagheni, E.; Mazzuco, S.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-018. (2025)