Arbeitsbereich

Bevölkerungsdynamik und Nachhaltiges Wohlbefinden

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team

Projekt

The Impact of Climate Change and Environmental Exposures on Health and Mortality

Risto Conte Keivabu, Ugofilippo Basellini, Emilio Zagheni

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Climate change is posing several threats to societies and human well-being. Moreover, environmental exposures, including heat waves, floods, and wildfires, are expected to increasingly affect populations. These forms of environmental exposure influence a large number of demographic outcomes and have implications for individual well-being and macro-level population dynamics. For example, climate change is expected to redefine mortality trends. Critically, some sociodemographic groups and geographic areas might be at greater peril. Therefore, mapping and understanding risk can help to inform climate adaptation policies and protect the most vulnerable.

In recent years, research on the impact of environmental phenomena on health and mortality has increased. Several studies have shown how extreme temperatures affect mortality and morbidity. Beyond temperature, a growing body of evidence indicates that air pollution, especially from wildfires, has detrimental effects on multiple health outcomes. Nevertheless, evidence is lacking on some countries (i.e., low- and middle-income countries), on disparities across sociodemographic groups, and on geographical inequalities. Crucially, the rapid and sustained emergence of sources of data on demographic outcomes and environmental exposures at fine-grained geographic and temporal levels opens up new and exciting possibilities to improve our understanding of the relationships between population and environment. For example, Eurostat currently provides weekly deaths counts for several countries at the NUTS 3 level that can be matched with meteorological information at the same geographic and temporal unit provided by the Copernicus Data Store.

This project has two main aims. The first aim is to leverage novel sources of climatic and demographic data to create databases that suit the needs of researchers interested in analyzing the impact of environmental exposures on population dynamics. Second, by relying on these databases, the project aims to provide new evidence on the impact of environmental phenomena on health and mortality. To do so, it will leverage information on demographic outcomes across countries and sociodemographic groups at high levels of temporal and geographic granularity to determine which populations are more vulnerable to climate change and environmental exposures.

In existing studies, we have documented racial disparities in temperature-related deaths in the United States (Conte Keivabu, Basellini & Zagheni 2024) and socioeconomic gradients in heat-related mortality risk in Spain (Conte Keivabu, 2022). We have also examined vulnerability among specific populations, including older adults with dementia in Germany (Conte Keivabu, Zagheni & Fink 2024) and older adults with morbidity across Europe (Zanasi & Conte Keivabu 2024). Additionally, we have investigated harvesting effects in extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy (Kannankeril et al., 2026). Finally, the project has produced novel spatiotemporal repositories of temperature extremes for European regions (Ronnkvist et al. 2025) and the United States (Fard et al. 2025), thus providing data infrastructure for the broader research community.

Ongoing and future work extends this agenda in new directions, including by examining how environmental exposures affect health provision that is consequential for mortality and morbidity, such as vaccination uptake in low- and middle-income countries, and by continuing to deepen the evidence base on climate-driven health inequalities across understudied populations and settings.

Temperaturexposition und Sterblichkeit, nach ethnischen Gruppen, in den Vereinigten Staaten

Anstieg der monatlichen Sterblichkeitsrate (pro 1.000) bei Exposition gegenüber Temperaturbereichen, die die Anzahl der Tage zwischen der 1. und 99. county-spezifischen Temperaturperzentile in den Vereinigten Staaten zählen. Die Schätzungen nach Ethnie beruhen auf einer Interaktion zwischen den Temperaturbereichen und den Rassenkategorien. © Conte Keivabu, R., Basellini, U., Zagheni, E. (2022) Racial disparities in deaths related to extreme temperatures in the United States between 1993 and 2005. MPIDR Working Paper WP-2022-028.

Schlagworte:

Alterung, Sterblichkeit und Langlebigkeit, Daten und Erhebungen, Demografischer Wandel, Gesundheitsversorgung, Public Health, Medizin und Epidemiologie

Schlagworte (Region):

Europa, Vereinigte Staaten, Welt