Fertilität und Wohlbefinden

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team


A Spatial Approach to European Fertility Trends (Dissertation)

Nicholas Campisi, Mikko Myrskylä, Mathias Lerch, Hill Kulu (University of St Andrews, Großbritannien), Sebastian Klüsener (Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Deutschland), Julia Mikolai

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Two groups of countries emerge when looking at fertility levels in Europe over the last 20 years. The first group includes countries in Southern and Eastern Europe; these see very low fertility. The second group consists of countries in Western and, especially, Northern Europe; these witness (relatively) high fertility still below the replacement level. Since 2010, however, several countries in the group of high fertility have been experiencing fertility declines. The rapid onset and seemingly unprecedented nature of these declines question our understanding of fertility contexts and of the economic, socioeconomic, and demographic factors that construct these patterns. New endeavors to understand fertility change often overlook contextual factors of fertility, such as lower fertility in urban places when compared with rural places.

With this project, we seek to understand how subnational variation contributes to recent national- and continental-level patterns. We use a spatial approach to understand how subnational fertility patterns are related to ongoing changes in fertility at the European level. Gaining deeper insights into the subnational patterns that contribute to overall trends is important to understand how and where fertility will continue to change.

We first examine the splitting of European countries into a high and a low fertility group. Using data for small-area spatial units across many European countries in 2010 (the height of the splitting period), we aim to understand how subnational variation and differences in urban and rural fertility contribute to continental patterns. To improve our understanding of fertility contexts in the Nordic countries, we analyze a panel of Nordic fertility data for small-area spatial units and covering the years 2000-2019. Lastly, we home in on Finland, a country that has experienced the most rapid fertility decline and the most drastic increases in childlessness of all countries seeing fertility decline. We use individual-level register data from Statistics Finland to understand how individual-level preferences and childbearing intentions construct national-level trends.


Campisi, N.; Kulu, H.; Mikolai, J.; Klüsener, S.; Myrskylä, M.:
Population, Space and Place 26:4, e2308–e2308. (2020)    
Das Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (MPIDR) in Rostock ist eines der international führenden Zentren für Bevölkerungswissenschaft. Es gehört zur Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, einer der weltweit renommiertesten Forschungsgemeinschaften.