Arbeitsbereich

Demografische Daten

Auf einen Blick Projekte Publikationen Team

Projekt

Estimating Mortality and Human Losses during Health Crises

Geleitet von Dmitri A. Jdanov; Domantas Jasilionis, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Inna Danilova, László Németh; in Zusammenarbeit mit David Leon (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Großbritannien)

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Epidemics, military conflicts, and natural disasters create major challenges for population statistics. In situations where official registration systems are not able to cover all vital events or deliberately exclude some subpopulations, estimating total mortality during these crises leads to incorrect estimates. Unadjusted mortality estimates based on official data can be further biased due to failure to account for substantial unregistered population movements. Evaluating human costs of various disasters has always been an important task for historical demography and epidemiology. However, the emergence of new health threats, such as global pandemics and recent military conflicts, call for new studies and methodological innovations to provide better and more complete evidence.

This project builds on the experiences of a Data Laboratory project completed in 2010, “Methods for Estimation of War-Related Mortality". In that project, we developed a methodological approach that requires only minimal available input data to model war-related mortality in several countries within the Human Mortality Database (HMD) project. Relying on these prior experiences and the methodological guidelines of the HMD, the current project aims at extending and applying a uniform set of direct and indirect methods to estimate mortality surfaces for countries that sustain disaster-related mortality.

Publikationen

Timonin, S. A.; Klimkin, I.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; McKee, M.; Leon, D. A.:

Excess mortality in Russia and its regions compared to high income countries: an analysis of monthly series of 2020

SSM-Population Health 17:101006, 1–14. (2022)    

Islam, N.; Jdanov, D. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Khunti, K.; Kawachi, I.; White, M.; Lewington, S.; Lacey, B.:

Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries

British Medical Journal 375:e066768, 1–14. (2021)    

Leon, D. A.; Jarvis, C. I.; Johnson, A. M.; Smeeth, L.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:

What can trends in hospital deaths from COVID-19 tell us about the progress and peak of the pandemic? An analysis of death counts from England announced up to 25 April 2020

medRxiv preprints. unpublished. (2020)