MPIDR Working Paper

Measure and dynamics of marriage squeezes: from baby boom to baby bust in Italy

Fraboni, R., Billari, F. C.

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2001-005 (Februar 2001).
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung


Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze. Italy provides an interesting case study because since World War II, it has been characterised by alternate periods of declines and rises of the annual number of births an by their differential patterns between regions. In this paper we study the dynamics of the Italian marriage market (year 1969-1995) by using some indexes proposed by Schoen as well as two additional measures. The result of regional analysis also suggest that marriage squeeze has also been by international migratory movements. The recent and prolonged phase of steep fertility decline in Italy, together with the drop of international movements, suggests the possibility of a perspective increasing disadvantage of men in the marriage market. (AUTHORS)