Tempo effects in the fertility decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia.

Philipov, D., Kohler, H.-P.

European Journal of Population, 17:1, 37-60 (2001)

Schlagworte: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation


A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us to disentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the total fertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia. Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFR indicate important tempo effects in the recent decline of fertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relative importance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the period when tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity of the assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and we test whether age-period interactions may invalidate these assumptions. (KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHER)