MPIDR Working Paper

The future of grandparenthood in South Asia: the role of population aging and educational expansion

Adhikari, S., Alburez-Gutierrez, D.

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-003, 37 pages.
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung (Februar 2025)
Revised January 2026

DOI:10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-003

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Abstract

Grandparents are a key source of care and support in South Asia, where formal welfare systems remain limited. Yet we know little about how many grandparents are alive for each grandchild, and how their age, sex, and educational compositions are changing as populations age and access to education improves. This study fills this gap by using demographic kinship models with national projections of fertility, mortality, and education to estimate the number and characteristics of living grandparents from 2020 to 2100 in eight South Asian countries. We show how demographic change is reshaping grandparenthood in uneven ways across the region. In 2020-2024, more than half of grandparents in Nepal and Pakistan had no education, compared with roughly one-fifth in Sri Lanka. By 2080, the share of grandparents with post-secondary education rises to nearly 20% in Nepal and over 30% in Sri Lanka and Iran, while progress remains slower in Bhutan and the Maldives. Across all countries, grandchildren have the most living grandparents early in life. This number declines with age, but most grandparents who remain alive tend to have a higher level of education. Sex-specific differences persist: grandmothers outnumber grandfathers at all ages due to sex differences in survival. These results indicate that future grandchildren in South Asia will grow up with more highly educated grandparents. Understanding these shifts is essential for anticipating how family support systems may evolve in a region where grandparents remain a central pillar of care.

Keywords: Grandparents, Education, Caregiving, Population Ageing, Delayed Reproduction