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Optimistic versus pessimistic scenarios for future life expectancy

Abstract

There was a radical increase in record human life expectancy during the 20th century. A study by Olshansky et al., however, now suggests that similar progress in the 21st century is unlikely. Although further advances will be difficult to achieve, more optimistic alternative scenarios should also be considered that rely on historical evidence and experiences of vanguard groups at the subnational level.