Zeitschriftenartikel
Workers, jobs, and how they are matched: a decomposition of US labor market trends in educational mismatch
Social Science Research, 135:103311, 1–15 (2026)
Abstract
Past research has shown increasing overeducation in the US labor market. Given the costs of educational mismatch for workers and employers, understanding its underlying causes is crucial. Trends in educational (mis)matches can be driven by concurrent shifts in the supply of and demand for workers of a certain education, as well as changes in the nonrandom allocation process of workers to jobs. While previous research has considered these aspects with regard to the emergence of (mis)match on the micro-level, less is known about their relative impact on macro-level trends in educational (mis)match. Using American Community Survey data, we adopt a macro-level perspective to decompose educational (mis)match trends between 2003 and 2017 into two components: changes in educational supply and demand (opportunity structure) and changes in the nonrandom allocation process (matching pattern). Our findings indicate that the moderate increase in overeducation, slight decrease in undereducation, and fluctuating trends in adequate matches are largely attributable to changes in the opportunity structure, while changes in matching patterns contributed to a lesser extent. Policies incentivizing the creation of jobs requiring higher educational levels could help align educational supply with labor market demand.