IDEM 118
Microsimulation Methods in Demography: Fertility Applications
Instructors: Daniel Ciganda, Henrik Schubert, Julia Hellstrand
Teaching assistant: Facundo Morini
Start: 11 June 2026
End: 17 June 2026
Location: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Onsite-only course.
Course description
This course provides a hands-on introduction to microsimulation techniques for demographic research, with a specific focus on fertility modeling. It is designed to bridge the gap between theoretical demographic concepts and their computational implementation.
Moving beyond traditional macro-level analysis, this course equips participants with the skills to build, analyze, and calibrate individual-level models. Over five intensive days, participants will learn to implement stochastic simulation models in R and to translate key reproductive mechanisms into computational rules; these skills will then be brought together to code a complete fertility microsimulation model from scratch. Throughout, participants will work with scenario-based applications, using the model to explore how alternative assumptions and conditions can shape fertility trajectories and aggregate outcomes. Participants will also develop methods to visualize simulated individual life-course trajectories and aggregate them into standard demographic measures. The course concludes with practical approaches to sensitivity analysis and calibration, enabling participants to align simulated fertility patterns with historical and contemporary empirical data.
Complementing the hands-on work, the course will develop the theoretical foundations needed to make simulation a substantive tool for explanation and forecasting. Participants will explore the two main simulation traditions used in demographic research, Agent-Based Models (ABM) and Dynamic Microsimulation (DMS), with a focus on their respective strengths, typical applications, and practical trade-offs. These concepts will be anchored in concrete fertility examples, including a dedicated session on how large-scale dynamic microsimulation models can be used to model and forecast fertility under changing incentives and constraints.
Organization
The course will be held in person at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. It takes place on June 11-12 and June 15-17, with the weekend free. The course is designed to combine theoretical foundations with intensive practical application. Each of the five teaching days is structured with morning sessions (10:00 - 11:30 CEST) dedicated to concepts and theory, followed by afternoon sessions (13:00 - 17:00 CEST) focused entirely on hands-on laboratory work where students will implement the discussed models in R. In general, students should devote about 6-8 hours per teaching day to the course (lectures, laboratory work, exercises).
Course Prerequisites
Applicants should either be enrolled in a PhD program or have received their PhD. Basic knowledge in statistics (probability distributions, sampling theory) and advanced skills in R (functions, conditionals, different data types) are required. Participants must bring a laptop with R and RStudio installed.
Examination
There is no final exam. A certificate of attendance will be issued to participants who actively participate in labs and complete the daily exercises.
Tuition and Funding
There is no tuition fee for this course. IMPRS-PHDS offers to cover the travel and accommodation expenses for admitted IMPRS-PHDS students from the affiliated partner sites.
How to Apply
- To apply, please email formal-fertility@demogr.mpg.de with the subject line Application: Simulation Approaches to Modelling Fertility.
- Please submit a single PDF file containing (1) a brief CV of no more than one page and (2) a brief statement of no more than one page describing your motivation for taking the course and how you meet the prerequisites (statistics, your previous experience with R).
- Any questions and inquiries can also be sent to the e-mail formal-fertility@demogr.mpg.de using the subject line Enquiry: Simulation Approaches to Modelling Fertility.
- Application deadline: The deadline for application is 12am (CET) the 13th of March 2026. Late applications will not be considered.
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