Research Group

Mathematical and Actuarial Demography

Detailed description

© oneinchpunch/stock.adobe.com

The research group “Mathematical and Actuarial Demography” aims to understand, model, and forecast mortality better, addressing the following question: What are the main drivers of mortality change? The researchers will approach the question from two perspectives: a macro perspective to investigate, for instance, the interaction of period and cohort factors; and a micro perspective to define determinants still unknown affecting mortality.

A deeper understanding will also allow us to model mortality better. This is a rather mathematical approach to modeling population dynamics; in a way it can be considered the “core of demography”. Unfortunately, there is the risk that “demography abandons its core”, so described by the distinguished demographer Ron Lee. A secondary aim of the research group thus is to reinvigorate and rejuvenate this area of research, pioneered by the founders of the discipline, Alfred J. Lotka, Nathan Keyfitz, Ansley J. Coale, and William Brass.

Few activities are as associated with demographers as producing population forecasts. If we are able to understand and model the mortality process better, then we should also be able to forecast mortality more accurately. Besides forecasting mortality on the national level, the group‘s goal is to improve the methodology for smaller areas.






Phone +49 (0)381 2081-194
Papenhagen, Ute
Phone +49 (0)381 2081-270