Research Group

Mathematical and Actuarial Demography


Mortality Modeling, Forecasting Mortality, and Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Conducted by Roland Rau; Marcus Ebeling, Christina Bohk-Ewald, James W. Vaupel, Frederik Peters, Fernando Colchero; in Collaboration with Carl Schmertmann (Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA), Joel E. Cohen (Rockefeller University, New York / Columbia University, New York, USA), Felix zur Nieden (Federal Statistical Office, Wiesbaden, Germany), Marc Luy (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria)

This project aims to find, first, innovative methods to model age-profiles of mortality, especially for small areas; second, to develop new models to forecast mortality; and third, to devise new methods to evaluate the accuracy and plausibility of mortality forecasts.Detailed description

Research keywords: Ageing, Mortality and Longevity; Projections and Forecasting; Statistics and Mathematics