Süßmilch Lecture - hybrid

Climate Change Implications of Emissions Trends Since the Paris Agreement, via Bayesian Integrated Assessment Modeling

Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington
Online or at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, October 08, 2025

As part of the Suessmilch Lecture Series, Adrian E. Raftery from the University of Washington will present on the subject of "Climate Change Implications of Emissions Trends Since the Paris Agreement, via Bayesian Integrated Assessment Modeling".

The event begins at 3 pm CET on October 8, 2025.

Abstract

Projecting future climate change is important for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions to a level that would keep global average temperature increase to 2100 below 1.5°C, and in any event well below  2°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses emissions scenarios for projecting climate change, but since 2017 an alternative fully statistical Bayesian probabilistic approach has been developed. This relies on the IPAT equation that expresses emissions as the product of population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and carbon intensity, namely carbon emissions per unit of GDP.  Here we use data on population, GDP and emissions for 2015-2024 to assess probabilistically the  changes in climate change prospects associated with post-Paris emissions. 

About the Speaker

Adrian is Blumstein-Jordan Professor Emeritus of Statistics and Sociology at the University of Washington. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social and environmental sciences. An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he was identified as the world's most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. He has supervised 36 Ph.D. graduates, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions, and has 170 academic descendants.

Participation

Please register via this survey for online participation. The Zoom link will be sent to you afterwards. The event begins at 3 pm CET on October 8, 2025.