March
29

Hybrid Format

Climate Migration Amplifies Demographic Change and Population Aging

Matthew Hauer
Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography, March 29, 2023

Matthew Hauer from the Florida State University investigated climate migration under sea-level rise.

Abstract

The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modelled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change -- enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas.

Here, Matthew Hauer investigates climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining multi-regional Leslie matrices, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 years of environmental migration in the US to project the US population distribution of US counties. He findf that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible RCP-SSP scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6M – 28M [5.7M – 53M] – 5 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4M – 10M). He also projects a significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases -- up to 10+ years older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, the population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.

About

Matt Hauer is an Assistant Professor of Sociology at Florida State University (FSU) and a faculty affiliate in the Center for Demography and Population Health. Hauer has received his BS in Sociology and MS in Demography at Florida State University, and his PhD degree in Geography from University of Georgia. He was the director of Applied Demography Program at University of Georgia, until he started his current position at FSU as an assistant professor in 2018. His expertise is at the intersection of demography, migration, population projections, and climate change.

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.