Scientific Presentations
LabTalks@DCD
Department of Digital and Computational Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, September 24, 2025
11:00 AM: Talk with Hana Ševčíková - Forecasting Net Migration By Age
Room: Auditorium (057)
Abstract
Most population projection models require age-specific information on net migration totals as a key demographic component of population change. Existing methods for predicting future patterns of net migration by age have proven inadequate. The main reason is that methods applied to model net migration are unable to distinguish factors influencing the inflows from those influencing the outflows. In this talk, two methods to produce age-specific forecasts of net migration for counties in the Washington State will be presented. One uses a deterministic approach; the other uses a Bayesian approach and includes measures of uncertainty. Both methods model the age-specific flows of in-migration and out-migration to derive age-specific net migration. By including models for in-migration and out-migration, even in the absence of data on such flows, the resulting net migration predictions are greatly improved over existing methods that only model the net migration totals. The implications for future county-level population projections in Washington State will also be shown.
About
Hana Ševčíková is a senior research scientist in the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology at the University of Washington. She works on developing methods for probabilistic population projection, national and subnational. She has developed various demographic R packages that the United Nations Population Division has been using to produce the World Population Prospects. She also works as a data scientist on land use modeling for the Puget Sound Regional Council in Seattle.
Register to Take Part
You would like to attend the Online Seminar Talk? You are very welcome. Please register by writing an e-mail to office-zagheni@demogr.mpg.de.
Online Seminar Talk, September, 24th from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. (Rostock time)