Scientific Presentations

LabTalks@­SocialDemography

Department Social Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, January 13, 2026

1:00 PM: Talk with Philipp Dierker - Future worries: Fertility planning under anticipated health decline

Abstract

Fertility planning is inherently forward-looking and shaped by uncertainty about future life conditions. While previous research has consistently shown that fertility intentions respond to experienced changes in health, less is known about how future worries about health affect fertility planning, including cases in which anticipated health decline does not materialize. This study examines whether changes in worries about future health are associated with changes in fertility intentions beyond the current health status. Drawing on longitudinal panel data, we apply fixed effects models to analyze how revisions in anticipated health decline relate to revisions in fertility intentions, net of current self-rated health. Additional analyses focus on the first increase in future health worries as a subjective turning point in anticipated health constraints. Preliminary results indicate that increasing worries about future health are associated with downward revisions of fertility intentions even when current health remains stable or improves. These associations vary by age, gender, and baseline health.

Room 400 and Zoom

Please register via email (office-myrskyla@demogr.mpg.de) for online participation. The Zoom link will be sent to you afterwards.

LabTalk, January, 13th from 1 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. (Rostock time)