October
12

Hybrid Format

Life Expectancy Forecast in São Paulo City, Brazil, in the Context of Covid-19

Maria Laura Miranda
Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography, October 12, 2022

Maria Laura Miranda from the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais overviews the the mortality patterns after Covid-19 in São Paulo.

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic changed the mortality patterns drastically in the last few years. In Brazil, the second country with the most notable excess deaths after Covid-19, São Paulo's state was one of the most damaged. São Paulo city, the capital of the state and the most populated and developed city was the first to receive and treat covid cases, apart from being the first city to start the vaccination in January of 2021. Besides the pandemic effects, São Paulo city also observed changes in the mortality level and pattern over the years, with abrupt decreases that allowed a fast convergence of life expectancy at birth with the best practice countries identified by Oeppen-Vaupel (2002).

In the presented analysis, she addressed the nonlinear changes in mortality levels and patterns (due to Covid-19 and historical trends) by estimating life expectancy in the city until 2050 using, as a final estimation, a combination of estimates using different starting periods (1920, 1950, 1970, and 1990) up to 2021, and scenarios of return of mortality levels after the pandemic. For this, Lee-Carter (1992) and Lee-Miller (2001) methods were used, with death rates obtained from the SEADE foundation (Fundação SEADE) data.

About

Maria Miranda is an MA student in Demography at the Center for Development and Regional Planning (Cedeplar), Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazil. She has been at the Summer Incubator Program during the summer at the institute and is now part of the 2022/23 EDSD cohort. Her research interests include formal demography, mortality (at an individual and aggregate level), and forecasts, focusing on developing countries such as Brazil.

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.