September 24, 2026 | News

Student Migration to the UK set to Decline by 2030

New study shows that demographic and policy shifts reshape global mobility

In a nutshell

• Projected Decline in International Student Enrolment: A recent study projects that UK international undergraduate enrolment could drop from around 70,000 in 2024 to 57,000 by 2030.
• Key Drivers of the Decline: The drop is attributed to shifting demographics, increased higher education options in home countries, stricter UK visa rules, and the lasting impact of Brexit, which has severely disrupted student mobility from Europe.
• Funding Crisis Risk: With international students paying nearly double the tuition of domestic students, their declining numbers threaten a major revenue stream for UK universities.

Researchers expect a sharp drop in international student numbers in the UK by 2030. © istockphoto.com / andresr

The study, which was published in Nature Communications, was conducted by researchers from University College London (UCL), the University of Liverpool and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR). Using UCAS (Universities & Colleges Admissions Service) applications data, the researchers projected that by the end of the decade, undergraduate applications from mainland China and Hong Kong will decline, demand from India will level off, and applications from the European Union will remain far below their pre-Brexit level.

Together, these countries account for more than half of the UK's international undergraduate enrolment, which erodes one of the UK's universities' most important revenue streams. International students typically pay nearly twice the government-capped tuition rates of domestic UK students.

“Brexit was a rare natural experiment in what happens when an established mobility corridor is disrupted. Attracting the best students also means attracting high-skilled professionals who stay after graduation, and those who return home with new ideas and build lasting collaborations across borders. The consequences will be felt for decades to come. A generation of young Europeans has quietly lost a path that their older siblings took for granted. That is a loss of shared education and of the personal ties that European cooperation rests on, and has broader implications than what may appear on a university’s balance sheet,” Emilio Zagheni, Director of the MPIDR and co-author explains.

Lead author Dr Ruth Neville (UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis) said: “With no or limited growth projected for the countries that it most relies on, the UK higher education sector is facing a potential crisis. International student enrolment is fundamentally shifting, and if universities don’t adapt, they will be looking at a serious funding gap by the end of the decade.”

In 2024, the UK Office for Students projected undergraduate applicant growth at 5.8%, but actual growth was only 1.3%. This and other missed admission targets in recent years have led to a reassessment of expectations about future international student numbers.

The research team found that applications from the European Union dropped off precipitously after Brexit, declining from 30,000 in 2020 to 9,000 in 2024, and are projected to continue declining to 7,000 in 2030. Student numbers from India increased over the 2010s, peaking at about 6,800 in 2023, where they are expected to remain through the end of the decade. Throughout this period, mainland China and Hong Kong have remained the largest source of international students, reaching 20,800 students in 2023, but this is projected to decline to about 18,000 by 2030. 

Overall, the researchers project that, based on current trends, total international student numbers will decline from around 70,000 in 2024 to 57,000 by 2030.

This projected drop-off in enrolment stems from a combination of changing demographics and economics in the students’ countries of origin, greater higher education availability in their home countries, as well as tightening migration laws and more restrictive visa requirements in the UK.

The researchers forecast international undergraduate demand through to 2030 by drawing on UCAS records from 86 origin countries and using a machine-learning model to evaluate against traditional forecasting approaches. The team used a new machine-learning model known as XGBoost, which has been used to improve enrolment projections in Germany and Taiwan by better accounting for unexpected shifts in visa regulations, fee status, and geopolitical relations.

International students have long been treated as a stable and reliable revenue stream by universities and policymakers, but these research results suggest that this assumption is increasingly untenable. The researchers recommend a mix of solutions, including diversifying the origin countries that institutes of higher education recruit from, revamping university funding models to reduce their dependence on international student fees, and a broader redesign of migration policies that balance political concerns with the need for stable and predictable student enrolment.

This text is based on the original press release of the University College London.

Original Publication

Neville R., F. Rowe, E. Zagheni (2026): "Machine learning forecasts suggest a concentration paradox in international student mobility to the United Kingdom." Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-77425-z

Keywords

Mobility | Scholars | Student Mobility | Machine Learning | UK | Student Enrolment