September 16, 2025 | News | SPOTLIGHT
Too Many Men, Too Few Women
[SPOTLIGHT]
Finland: Increased risk of childlessness in an unbalanced partner market
Childlessness is becoming an increasingly common issue as people are delaying to start a family and the couples do not have a child. Notably, more men than women remain childless. A recent study by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) shows that regional partner markets—particularly the ratio of men to women in the relevant age and educational groups — significantly influence childlessness among men in Finland.
In rural areas of Finland in particular, many men are single and therefore remain childless. © iStockphoto.com / Elena Perova
Childlessness is becoming an increasingly important issue as birth trends are characterized by the postponement of starting a family and an increase in childless couples. The proportion of childless men is higher than that of women almost everywhere. In Finland, for example, the difference is particularly large: 29 percent of men, but only 21 percent of women, remain childless. The gender-specific difference in childlessness has received little attention to date. One possible explanation for this could be unbalanced partner markets. Henrik-Alexander Schubert and Christian Dudel, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), examined the influence of regional partner markets on childlessness among men in a recent study.
The researchers evaluated Finnish register data from 1989 to 2019 at the municipal level using logistic regression models. This was the first time the data was examined at the individual level. The partner market is defined at the municipal level and includes Finnish men and women aged 18 to 49 who are classified by place of residence, education level, and age.
Childlessness is more prevalent among less educated men. "There are signs of increasing disadvantage for men with lower educational attainment," says Schubert. "One potential explanation for this could be that a secure income is important to attract potential partners, which becomes even more relevant in imbalanced partner markets."
Percentage of Childless Men at Age 45 across subnational economic units:Cohorts born in Finland between 1968 and 1975. © MPIDR
Additionally, the probability of remaining childless increases in areas with a surplus of men. "About 0.587 percentage points of childlessness among men can be attributed to the fact that fewer female partners are available in certain regions. That may not sound like much at first, but we are talking about several thousands of individuals in a small country, whose family situation depends on the structural context, e.g. the partner market. Our results are stable. The availability of female partners in a region is an important reason for fertility among men in Finland," Schubert explains.
Unfavorable partner markets may help explain trends in family formation in the Nordic countries. Changes in these markets contribute to increasing childlessness and growing differences in childlessness between higher- and lower-educated men. They also contribute to the widening gap between male and female childlessness.
The group of childless men is growing in Western populations. "This group may face a triple disadvantage in the future: familial, socioeconomic, and geographic. They will depend on affordable professional care services because they cannot afford private services and do not have many relatives who could care for them in old age or in case of illness. Politicians and society must prepare for this," says the researcher.
Henrik Schubert received the Julia Mead Knox Memorial Prize from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and the University of Oxford for this paper. Read more
Original Publication
Schubert, H.-A.; Dudel, C.:
Population Studies, 1–21. (2025)
Keywords
fertility decline, regional partner markets, male childlessness, partnership formation, male fertility, population imbalances