October 21, 2015 | News | Suessmilch Lecture

Lifespan Extension with Varying Cause-of-Death Trajectories

Life expectancy is increasing to similar extent in many prosperous countries. The development of the distribution of cause of death, however, differs from one country to the other. A newly convened researchers’ IUSSP Panel now aims to examine these variations. Ulrich Mueller of the German Federal Institute for Population Research, who is chairman of this panel, will talk about the project at the MPIDR on October 27.

Abstract
There is a substantial and fairly uniform extension of the average life span in similarly prosperous countries, going hand in hand with an enormous change in the distribution of causes-of-death during that extension of the life span. On the other side there are much larger differences in the incidence of single causes of death from country to country than in general mortality.

Thus, there must be great variation in the cause-of-death trajectories leading from the 50 years life expectancy societies around 1900 to the 80 years life expectancy societies now in 2015, and even more variation, if we include developing/transitional societies which have experienced an even faster lifespan extension and a faster epidemiological transition at still lower levels of standard of living.

This great variation in the cause-of-death trajectories in societies otherwise similar in overall mortality is the focus of a new IUSSP Scientific Panel . Since many deaths occur by a combination of causes, disease incidence data will have to be considered as well.
Studying the underlying causes of varying cause-of-death trajectories leading to the same high life expectancy levels includes two tasks

• Identifying and describing different types of trajectories;
• Finding the characteristics of differing trajectories, and explaining how trajectories may have originated from biological potential, environmental stimuli, social behaviour, economic infrastructure and - perhaps - also from religion and national history, stressing the interaction between these causal factors.

I will give reasons  why studying this topic is relevant for scientists as well as policy makers.

Time and Venue
Tuesday, October 27, 2015, 4 p.m. in the Institute´s Auditorium