Book Chapter

A DEVS model for demographic microsimulation

Zinn, S., Gampe, J., Himmelspach, J., Uhrmacher, A. M.

In: Wainer, G. (Ed.): Proceedings of the 2010 Spring Simulation Multiconference: Symposium on Theory of Modeling & Simulation - DEVS Integrative M&S Symposium (DEVS 2010); Book 4 of 9, 87-94 (2010)
Simulation series 42,1
Red Hook, NY: Curran.

ISBN 978-1-617-38204-8

Keywords: microsimulation


Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e.,DYNPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.