Book Chapter
A data-driven simulation of Ukrainian refugee flows impact on COVID-19 dynamics in the UK
Chumachenko, D., Chomko, V., Meniailov, I., Krivtsov, S., Padalko, H.
In: Shakhovska, , N., Kovac, M., Izonin, I., Chretien, S. (Eds.): Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Informatics & Data-Driven Medicine (IDDM 2023): Bratislava, Slovakia, November 17-19, 2023
, 92–102
CEUR Workshop Proceedings 3609
CEUR-WS.org (2024)
Abstract
In the contemporary global landscape, geopolitical events can profoundly affect public health, particularly concerning infectious diseases. The migration wave resulting from Russia's military aggression in Ukraine presented potential challenges for the epidemiological landscape of recipient countries, notably the UK. This research sought to discern the impact of the Ukrainian refugee influx on the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics in the UK, aiming to understand whether such a significant migration event could alter the disease trajectory. A sophisticated forecasting approach was employed using the Prophet model, tailored for
predicting the epidemic process of COVID-19. The model's performance was evaluated using the MAPE over distinct periods before and after the beginning of the Russian full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. The model exhibited commendable accuracy in its predictions, particularly in the retrospective forecasting phase. Despite the high influx of Ukrainian refugees, the UK's epidemic remained stable, with no discernible exacerbation attributable to the migration. The findings underscore the efficacy of the UK's preventive health measures in managing potential outbreaks, even amidst significant geopolitical challenges. The results also highlight the resilience of a well-prepared health system and the value of data-driven forecasting in navigating public health challenges during tumultuous times. The forced migration of Ukrainian citizens due to the military invasion did not emerge as a critical factor influencing the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence in the UK. This study serves as a testament to the importance of proactive public health strategies and the potential of modern forecasting models in guiding policy decisions during global crises.