Journal Article
Marital dissolution, repartnering, and the realization of fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa
Population and Development Review, 1–28 (2026)
Abstract
Women who experience union disruption in sub-Saharan Africa tend to have lower fertility than those in stable unions. It remains unclear, however, whether this pattern reflects lower fertility desires, constrained opportunities to achieve desired fertility, or both. Using Demographic Health Survey data from 34 countries, this study examines whether fertility differences between women in intact unions and those who experience marital dissolution are primarily driven by differences in family size ideals, unrealized fertility, or unwanted fertility. Results indicate that unrealized fertility is widespread and especially pronounced among women whose first unions ended, particularly those not in union. Although remarriage offers some fertility recovery, it rarely eliminates the reproductive disadvantage associated with union disruption. In contrast, women in intact first unions have higher levels of unwanted fertility across most countries, contributing to the fertility gap. Although women in intact unions have somewhat higher ideal numbers of children than women outside of unions, constrained realization of fertility goals emerges as the dominant factor explaining observed differences. Furthermore, women who experience union dissolution are more likely to revise their desires downward or express uncertainty about future childbearing. These findings underscore the importance of union trajectories in shaping fertility variation in sub-Saharan Africa.
Keywords: Africa, divorce, fertility, marital union