Journal Article
Weaponizing kinship: a demographic analysis of bereavement in the Colombian conflict
Population and Development Review, 1–38 (2026)
Abstract
The ongoing Colombian armed conflict has produced widespread homicides and enforced disappearances, as armed actors used violence to terrorize communities and consolidate power. Family bereavement—one of the most pervasive and enduring consequences of this violence—remains critically understudied from a quantitative perspective. We quantify the population burden of bereavement—ever having lost a family member to conflict—using kinship demographic models applied to 1985–2018 data compiled by the Truth Commission and the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, corrected for under-registration. By 2018, an estimated 7.5% of Colombians had lost a close relative and about 40% had lost at least one family member to conflict. Even assuming an over-optimistic scenario with no post-2018 violence, demographic projections indicate that conflict-related bereavement will remain visible well into the 2080s. Results are robust to subnational heterogeneity and alternative “bereavement memory” specifications. Reading these estimates alongside the Commission's qualitative record underscores bereavement as a strategic mechanism of repression aimed at fracturing kin networks and community cohesion rather than a collateral by-product. Our demographic profiling of the bereaved informs population-health and psychosocial responses, including support for relatives of the disappeared, and can guide reparations and community-based programs that rebuild kin and neighborhood ties while strengthening guarantees of non-repetition.
Keywords: Colombia, excess mortality, kinship, mathematical demography, war