MPIDR Working Paper
Grandparenthood related to reduced risk of gray divorce: evidence from 15 countries
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-015, 41 pages.
Rostock, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (May 2026)
Abstract
Gray divorce (marital dissolution after age 50) has risen across most countries, yet relatively little is known about how grandparenthood may stabilize marriages in later life. Drawing on harmonized Generations and Gender Survey data from 15 countries spanning Europe, East Asia, and Latin America (N=30,187 parents still married at age 50), we examine whether the transition to grandparenthood is associated with a lower risk of marital dissolution. Using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with grandparent status specified as a time-varying covariate and widowhood treated as a competing risk, we find that grandparents face a substantially lower hazard of marital dissolution than those who have not yet become grandparents (adjusted HR=0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.94). This protective association persists net of birth cohort and marriage duration and is broadly consistent across the 15 national contexts examined, though with substantial cross-national variation. The elevated raw hazard of widowhood among grandparents likely reflects cohort composition rather than a direct grandparenthood effect. The protective association is directionally consistent in 13 of the 15 national contexts examined, and is strongest in contexts where filial norms and divorce stigma are more pronounced, notably in Taiwan and several Eastern European countries.
Keywords: ageing, divorce, fertility