Preprint

Analyzing the discourse around Russo-Ukrainian war in Germany: understanding variances in public stances

Baik, K., Kim, J.

SocArXiv papers
8 pages.
SocArXiv
submitted: 07 July 2025 / last edited: 08 July 2025 (version 1) (2025), unpublished

DOI:10.31235/osf.io/qe4m3_v1

Open Access

Abstract

In contemporary conflicts, public opinion is shaped not only by traditional media and politics but also by digital interactions. The 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war intensified an ongoing crisis, drawing global attention and public engagement. Social media has played a key role in mediating these responses and revealing real-time public interpretation. This study explores the online discourse surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war on X (formerly Twitter), examining how it shapes and reflects public discourse during the conflict. Focusing on Germany, it analyzes dominant narratives, sentiments, and stances expressed on the platform, while integrating socio-economic indicators—such as unemployment rates, the Social Connectedness Index, and regional demographics—to contextualize regional variations in public attitudes and social dynamics. We employ a Large Language Model for stance detection, sentiment analysis, and topic modeling. We then apply statistical modeling to examine how these public expressions relate to socio-economic conditions and emotional tone. This study shows that public attitudes toward the Russo-Ukrainian war are emotionally complex and evolving. Negative sentiment dominates, but positive engagement around inclusion also appears. Supportive stances are more common than opposition, with a clear shift toward greater support after February 24, while opposition is more cautious and tied to socio-economic contexts. The research provides insights into the intersection of digital narratives and offline realities, offering a nuanced perspective on public discourse and its role in shaping responses to complex international crises.