Evaluation of age-specific causes of death in the context of the Italian longevity transition

Nigri, A., Aburto, J. M., Basellini, U., Bonetti, M.
-SocArxiv papers
15 pages.
originally posted on: 5 August 2022 (2022), unpublished
Open Access


In many low-mortality countries, life expectancy at birth increased steadily over the last century. In particular, both Italian
females and males benefited from faster improvements in mortality compared to other high-income countries, especially from
the 1960s, leading to an exceptional increase in life expectancy. However, Italy has not become the leader in longevity. Here, we
investigate life expectancy trends in Italy during the period 1960–2015 for both sexes. Additionally, we contribute to the existing
literature by complementing life expectancy with an indicator of dispersion in ages at death, also known as lifespan inequality.
Lifespan inequality underlies heterogeneity over age in populating health improvements and is a marker of uncertainty in
the timing of death. We further quantify the contributions of different age groups and causes of death to recent trends in life
expectancy and lifespan inequality. Our findings highlight the contributions of cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms to the
recent increase in life expectancy but not necessarily to the decrease in lifespan inequality. Our results also uncover a more
recent challenge across Italy: worsening mortality from infectious diseases and mortality at older age.

Keywords: Italy, causes of death, life expectancy
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.