Preprint
Predicting individual life trajectories: addressing uncertainty in social employment transitions
SocArXiv papers
82 pages.
SocArXiv
submitted: 10 June 2025 / last edited: 11 June 2025 (version 1) (2025), unpublished
Abstract
Life course sequences are complex trajectories of interconnected events that shape the future of individuals in multifaceted ways. Life course research often predicts single life events at specific stages, overlooking the sequential and dynamic nature of human lives. Additionally, the inherent uncertainty in life leads to various potential alternative pathways individuals may encounter. In this study, we perform sequence analysis to gain deeper insights into life course sequences and apply Transformers to model sequences of future life events focusing on individuals in Germany who are approaching retirement age. Our model forecasts these sequences from which we provide probabilistic assessments of alternative pathways. Through our analysis, we identify seven distinct late-career clusters, ranging from stable full-time employment, which exhibit high predictability and certainty, to persistent unemployment and marginal employment, which demonstrate greater volatility and uncertainty. Alternative pathways predicted by the model suggest that individuals in volatile career trajectories might have transitioned into stable employment under different opportunity structures. These findings underscore the potential for stability based on prior life course patterns and highlight the importance of proactive labor market policies. Our framework provides policymakers with actionable insights to design effective interventions aimed at supporting vulnerable populations and enhancing labor market policies.
Keywords: Germany, inequality, old age, older workers