Laboratory

Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Mortality and Health in Eastern Europe

Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Domantas Jasilionis, Dmitri A. Jdanov, Pavel Grigoriev; in Collaboration with David A. Leon, Martin McKee, Sergi Trias Limos (all: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom), Evgeny Andreev, Sergey Timonin, Tatyana Kharkova, Elena Papanova, Elena Churilova (all: National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation), Jacques Vallin, France Meslé (both: French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France), Giedré Smailyté (National Cancer Institute, Vilnius, Lithuania), Dalia Ambrozaitiene (Statistics Lithuania, Vilnius, Lithuania), Vladislava Stankūnienė (Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania)

Detailed Description

The project includes a large number of studies conducted in collaboration with researchers from Russia, France, Great Britain, Lithuania, and Belarus. The research focuses on the components and determinants of mortality in Russia and Eastern Europe, especially on the mortality decrease in Eastern Europe and on the remaining East-West mortality gap. 

Our studies of 2017-18 and another study of 2020 were devoted to general macroeconomic and epidemiological determinants of mortality and life expectancy in the Baltic countries and Russia, respectively. They have suggested that only a moderate part of the mortality gap may be attributed to lower levels of income. Most of the gap is related to the general problems faced by underfinanced health-care systems in addressing new health challenges, wide-spread alcohol abuse, other unhealthy behaviors, and psycho-social stress. Although the situation has been improving since the late 1990s in the Baltics and since the mid-2000s in Russia and Belarus, mortality excess in the East remains large due to cardiovascular, medically amenable, external, and alcohol-related causes of death.

The progress in health is uneven across space. A project study of 2017 has shown that all regions of Russia experienced substantial reductions in mortality at working ages, but the progress against cardiovascular diseases at older ages was larger in Moscow and a few other regions than in the rest of the country. In the mid-2010s, the capital city enjoyed an exceptional 5-year advantage in life expectancy at birth. Three of our studies conducted between 2017 and 2019 have found mortality advantages for Muscovites at ages under 70 and very low (and probably understated) mortality at ages above 80.

Earlier research has identified hazardous alcohol drinking as a major factor of high working-age mortality in post-communist countries. In a study of 2018, we have shown that alcohol explained 20% of the life-expectancy gap between post-Soviet countries and the west of Europe in 2015. Two 2020 studies of ours examined the very strong correlation between temporal changes in life expectancy and changes in fatal alcohol poisonings in Russia and Belarus. The results have revealed that in Belarus, the recent life-expectancy rise coincided with the policies of the 2010s on alcohol abuse. In Russia, the correlation weakened post-2010 in parallel with the growing importance of mortality at older ages as a driver of the length of life.

Another of our studies published in 2019 linked the variation in male alcohol-related mortality across Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, and the west of Russia to contemporary socioeconomic contexts and to historical ethnocultural patterns.

A study of 2020 is a synthesis of evidence on current smoking in Russia. We applied meta-analyses to a unique collection of micro data, pooling together 17 annual rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 11 ad hoc surveys, and two comparator surveys from England and the USA. We have identified a decline in smoking prevalence among men and an increase in the educational differences between the best and the least educated among women. The decline among men began right after the implementation of an effective tobacco-control strategy in 2008 and will have made a small contribution to the reduction in mortality from cardiovascular diseases.

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Data and Surveys, Economics, Employment, Retirement, Education and Science, Health Care, Public Health, Medicine, and Epidemiology, Historical Demography

Region keywords:

Belarus, Estonia, Europe, Germany (Neue Bundesländer), Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russian Federation

Publications

Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jasilionis, D.:
European Journal of Public Health, 1–3. (2021)    
Stickley, A.; Baburin, A.; Jasilionis, D.; Krumins, J.; Martikainen, P.; Kondo, N.; Leinsalu, M.:
Addiction, 1–12. (2021)    
Danilova, I. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Leon, D. A.:
Drug and Alcohol Review, 1–7. (2020)    
Grigoriev, P.; Bobrova, A.:
Drug and Alcohol Review, 1–13. (2020)    
Grigoriev, P.; Jasilionis, D.; Klüsener, S.; Timonin, S. A.; Andreev, E. M.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
Drug and Alcohol Review, 1–11. (2020)    
Jasilionis, D.; Grigoriev, P.; Stumbrys, D.; Stankūnienė, V.:
Population, Space and Place, e2372–e2372. (2020)    
Jasilionis, D.; Leon, D. A.; Pechholdová, M.:
Drug and Alcohol Review 39, 785–789. (2020)    
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Churilova, E.; Jdanov, D. A.; Shalnova, S. A.; Nilssen, O.; Kudryavtsev, A.; Cook, S.; Malyutina, S.; McKee, M.; Leon, D. A.:
BMC Public Health 20:378, 1–11. (2020)    
Stumbrys, D.; Telksnys, T.; Jasilionis, D.; Liutkutė Gumarov, V.; Galkus, L.; Goštautaitė Midttun, N.; Štelemėkas, M.:
Drug and Alcohol Review, 1–9. (2020)    
Timonin, S. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.:
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 74:2, 144–150. (2020)    
Papanova, E. K.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Timonin, S. A.:
Demographic Review 6:1, 50–103. (2019)    
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Tursun-Zade, R.; Leon, D. A.:
The Lancet Public Health 4:4, e181–e188. (2019)    
Andreev, E. M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Demographic Review 5:1, 6–24. (2018)    
Bálint, L.; Németh, L.:
Hungarian Science 11, 1666–1679. (2018)    
Cook, S.; Malyutina, S.; Kudryavtsev , A. V.; Averina, M.; Bobrova, N.; Boytsov, S.; Brage, S.; Clark, T. G.; Benavente, E. D.; Eggen, A. E.; Hopstock, L. A.; Hughes, A.; Johansen, H.; Kholmatova, K.; Kichigina, A.; Kontsevaya, A.; Kornev, M.; Leong, D.; Magnus, P.; Mathiesen, E.; McKee, M.; Morgan, K.; Nilssen, O.; Plakhov, I.; Quint, J. K.; Rapala, A.; Ryabikov, A.; Saburova, L.; Schirmer, H.; Shapkina, M.; Shiekh, S.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Stylidis, M.; Voevoda, M.; Westgate, K.; Leon, D. A.:
Wellcome Open Research 3:67, 1–25. (2018)    
Papanova, E. K.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Timonin, S. A.:
Advances in Gerontology 8:2, 86–95. (2018)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Churilova, E.; Avdeeva, M.; Malyutina, S.; Kudryavtsev, A.; Jdanov, D. A.; Cook, S.; Leon, D. A.:
European Journal of Public Health 28:Supplement 4, 298–298. (2018)    
Steponavičienė, L.; Vansevičiūtė, R.; Zabulienė, L.; Jasilionis, D.; Smailytė, G.:
European Journal of Cancer 92:S3, S30–S30. (2018)    
Trias Llimós, S.; Kunst, A. E.; Jasilionis, D.; Janssen, F.:
International Journal of Epidemiology 47:3, 731–739. (2018)    
Vallin, J.; Jasilionis, D.; Meslé, F.:
Population et Sociétés 555, 1–4. (2018)    
Grigoriev, P.; Jasilionis, D.; Stumbrys, D.; Stankūnienė, V.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
PLoS One 12:7, e0181622–e0181622. (2017)    
Papanova, E. K.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Timonin, S. A.:
Uspekhi Gerontologii 30:6, 826–835. (2017)
Timonin, S. A.; Danilova, I. A.; Andreev, E. M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
European Journal of Population 33:5, 733–763. (2017)    
Vallin, J.; Jasilionis, D.; Meslé, F.:
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History 50:4, 191–209. (2017)
Zabulienė, L.; Jasilionis, D.; Miseikyte-Kaubriene, E.; Stukas, R.; Kačėnienė, A.; Smailytė, G.:
Hormones and Cancer 8:5-6, 325–329. (2017)
Grigoriev, P.; Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
European Journal of Public Health 26:1, 95–101. (2016)
Smailytė, G.; Jasilionis, D.; Vincerževskienė, I.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Acta Oncologica 55:7, 859–864. (2016)
Grigoriev, P.; Andreev, E. M.:
PLoS One 10:9, e0138021–e0138021. (2015)
Penina, O.; Jdanov, D. A.; Grigoriev, P.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2015-011. (2015)    
Grigoriev, P.:
Demografische Forschung Aus Erster Hand 11:1, 3–3. (2014)
Grigoriev, P.; Meslé, F.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Fihel, A.; Pechholdová, M.; Vallin, J.:
Population and Development Review 40:1, 107–129. (2014)
Jdanov, D. A.; Deev, A. D.; Jasilionis, D.; Shalnova, S. A.; Shkolnikova, M. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
European Journal of Epidemiology 29:9, 621–628. (2014)
Grigoriev, P.; Doblhammer-Reiter, G.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Population Studies 67:1, 61–81. (2013)
Leon, D. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Borinskaya, S.; Casas, J.-P.; Evans, A.; Gil, A.; Kee, F.; Kiryanov, N.; McKee, M.; O’Doherty, M.G.; Ploubidis, G.B.; Polikina, O.; Vassiliev, M.; Blankenberg, S.; Watkins, H.:
European Journal of Epidemiology 28:5, 393–404. (2013)
Rechel, B.; Roberts, B.; Richardson, E.; Shishkin, S.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Leon, D. A.; Bobak, M.; Karanikolos, M.; McKee, M.:
The Lancet 381:9872, 1145–1155. (2013)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; McKee, M.; Leon, D. A.:
Demographic Research 28:32, 917–950. (2013)
Smailytė, G.; Jasilionis, D.; Kačėnienė, A.; Krilaviciute, A.; Ambrozaitiene, D.; Stankūnienė, V.:
Cancer Epidemiology 37:5, 714–718. (2013)
Grigoriev, P.:
Population: English Edition 67:1, 7–38. (2012)
Grigoriev, P.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2012-023. (2012)    
Tomkins, S.; Collier, T.; Oralov, A.; Saburova, L.; McKee, M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Kiryanov, N.; Leon, D. A.:
PLoS One 7:2, e30274–e30274. (2012)
Grigoriev, P.; Grigorieva, O.:
Demographic Research 24:23, 551–578. (2011)
Jasilionis, D.; Meslé, F.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Vallin, J.:
European Journal of Population 27:4, 403–431. (2011)
Grigoriev, P.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jasilionis, D.; Jdanov, D. A.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
European Journal of Population 26:3, 245–274. (2010)
Leon, D. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; McKee, M.; Kiryanov, N.; Andreev, E. M.:
International Journal of Epidemiology 39:5, 1279–1290. (2010)
Andreev, E. M.; Hoffmann, R.; Carlson, E.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Kharkova, T. L.:
European Societies 11:1, 161–185. (2009)
Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.:
International Journal of Epidemiology 38:2, 525–527. (2009)
Leon, D. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; McKee, M.:
Addiction 104:10, 1630–1636. (2009)
Andreev, E. M.; Kiryanov, N.; Leon, D. A.; McKee, M.; Tomkins, S.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Narkologiia, 38–52. (2008)
Andreev, E. M.; Pridemore, W. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Antonova, O. I.:
European Journal of Public Health 18:3, 252–257. (2008)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jdanov, D. A.:
In: Alkogolʹnaja katastrofa i vozmožnosti gosudarstvennoj politiki v preodolenii alkogolʹnoj sverchsmertnosti v Rossii [Alcohol catastrophe ... in Russia], 85–104. Moscow: URSS. (2008)
Andreev, E. M.; Jdanov, D. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
SPERO 6, 115–142. (2007)
Jasilionis, D.; Jdanov, D. A.; Leinsalu, M.:
In: Jahrbuch der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2007: Tätigkeitsberichte, Zahlen, Fakten, 103–108. München: Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften. (2007)
Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jdanov, D. A.; Ambrozaitiene, D.; Stankūnienė, V.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
Population: English Edition 62:4, 597–646. (2007)
Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jdanov, D. A.; Ambrozaitiene, D.; Stankūnienė, V.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
Population: Édition Française 62:4, 707–758. (2007)
Leon, D. A.; Saburova, L.; Tomkins, S.; Andreev, E. M.; Kiryanov, N.; McKee, M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
The Lancet 369:9578, 2001–2009. (2007)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Jasilionis, D.; Andreev, E. M.; Jdanov, D. A.; Stankūnienė, V.; Ambrozaitiene, D.:
Social Science and Medicine 64:7, 1392–1406. (2007)
Tomkins, S.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Kiryanov, N.; Leon, D. A.; McKee, M.; Saburova, L.:
BMC Public Health 7:343. (2007)
Andreev, E. M.; Vishnevsky, A.:
In: Demograficheskaja modernizacija Rossii, 1990-2000 (Demographic modernization in Russia, 1990-2000), 399–470. Moscow: Novoe Izdatel´stvo. (2006)
Jasilionis, D.; Stankūnienė, V.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Vilnius, Lithuania: Statistics Lithuania, Institute for Social Research, Vilnius. (2006)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Jasilionis, D.; Leinsalu, M.; Antonova, O. I.; McKee, M.:
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 60:10, 875–881. (2006)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Leon, D. A.:
International Journal of Epidemiology 35:6, 1406–1409. (2006)
Shkolnikova, M. A.; Aber, B.; Weinstein, M.; Kravtsova, L.; Shalnova, S. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Vaupel, J. W.:
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2006-009. (2006)    
Andreev, E. M.; Kharkova, T. L.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Demografiia 3, 68–81. (2005)
Vallin, J.; Andreev, E. M.; Meslé, F.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Demographic Research 12:13, 323–380. (2005)
McMichael, A.; McKee, M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Valkonen, T.:
The Lancet 363:9415, 1155–1159. (2004)
Pridemore, W. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Journal of Quantitative Criminology 20:2, 173–187. (2004)
Puras, D.; Germanavicius, A.; Povilaitis, R.; Veniute, M.; Jasilionis, D.:
International Review of Psychiatry 16:1-2, 117–125. (2004)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Anson, J.; Meslé, F.:
Population Studies 58:3, 311–329. (2004)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.; Leon, D. A.; McKee, M.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:
Hygiea Internationalis 4:4, 29–80. (2004)
Andreev, E. M.; McKee, M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 81:11, 778–788. (2003)
Andreev, E. M.; Nolte, E.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Varavikova, E.; McKee, M.:
International Journal of Epidemiology 32:3, 437–446. (2003)
Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.; Hertrich, V.; Andreev, E. M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
In: Population of Central and Eastern Europe: challenges and opportunities, 389–414. Warsaw: Statistical Publishing Establishment. (2003)
Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
In: Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XXe siècle, 79–90. Paris: Institut National d´Études Démographiques (INED). (2003)
Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:
In: Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XXe siècle, 91–100. Paris: Institut National d´Études Démographiques (INED). (2003)
Shkolnikov, V. M.:
In: Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XXe siècle, 105–110. Paris: Institut National d´Études Démographiques (INED). (2003)
Shkolnikov, V. M.:
In: Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XXe siècle, 111–120. Paris: Institut National d´Études Démographiques (INED). (2003)
Shkolnikov, V. M.; Field, M. G.; Andreev, E. M.:
In: Challenging inequalities in health - from ethics to action, 138–155. Oxford: Oxford University Press. (2001)
The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.