Laboratory

Population Dynamics and Sustainable Well-Being

Project

Future Population Dynamics under Climate Change Feedback (Dissertation)

Jakob Gregor Zellmann, Raya Muttarak (University of Bologna , Italy), Emilio Zagheni, Asli Ebru Sanlitürk; in Collaboration with Mikhail Maksimenko (University of Bologna, Italy), Itza Akari Olguín Zúñiga (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria), Rosanna Gualdi (Bocconi University, Milan, Italy), Sirinya Kaikeaw (University of Bologna, Italy)

Growing evidence suggests that climatic feedback affects demographic variables. This dissertation systematizes the related literature, estimates the impact of climate on demographic variables, and utilizes these estimates to generate population projections that account for future climatic feedback. A case study focuses on Mexican states. Detailed Description

Research Keywords:

Aging, Mortality and Longevity, Migration, Projections and Forecasting

Region keywords:

Mexico, World

Links:

Alan Barreca, Olivier Deschenes, Melanie Guldi. Maybe next month? temperature shocks and dynamic adjustments in birth rates. Demography, 55(4):1269–1293, Jul 2018.

Michael Berlemann, Max Friedrich Steinhardt. Climate change, natural disasters, and migration—a survey of the empirical evidence. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4):353–385, Nov 2017.

Hyunkuk Cho. Ambient temperature, birth rate, and birth outcomes: evidence from South Korea. Population and Environment, 41(3):330–346, Dec 2019.

Risto Conte Keivabu, Marco Cozzani, Joshua Wilde. Temperature and fertility: Evidence from Spain. Population Studies, 2024.

Antonio Gasparrini, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, et al. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. The Lancet Planetary Health, 1(9):e360–e367, Dec 2017.

Roman Hoffmann, Anna Dimitrova, Raya Muttarak, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Jonas Peisker. A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration. Nature Climate Change, 10(10):904–912, Sep 2020.

Letícia J. Marteleto, Alexandre Gori Maia, Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues. Climate and fertility amid a public health crisis. Population Studies, 77(3):437–458, Aug 2023.

Pierre Masselot, Malcolm N. Mistry, Shouro Rao, Verena Huber, et al. Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. Nature Medicine, 2025.

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