Laboratory

Fertility and Well-Being

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Improvement and Evaluation of Fertility Forecasts

Mathias Lerch, Peng Li, Mikko Myrskylä, Christina Bohk-Ewald (MPIDR / University of Helsinki, Finland)

This project aims to develop, revise, and assess methods for forecasting cohort fertility to improve their forecasting performance and to determine the conditions in which their application is most appropriate. These conditions are specified by, e.g., age, calendar year, and country.  Detailed Description

Publications

Bohk-Ewald, C.; Li, P.; Myrskylä, M.:

Forecast accuracy hardly improves with method complexity when completing cohort fertility

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115:37, 9187–9192. (2018)