Laboratory

Fertility and Well-Being

Project

Improvement and Evaluation of Fertility Forecasts

Mathias Lerch, Christina Bohk-Ewald, Peng Li, Mikko Myrskylä

This project aims to develop, revise, and assess methods for forecasting cohort fertility to improve their forecasting performance and to determine the conditions in which their application is most appropriate. These conditions are specified by, for example, age, calendar year, and country. Detailed Description

Research Keywords:

Fertility Development, Statistics and Mathematics

Publications

Bohk-Ewald, C.; Li, P.; Myrskylä, M.:

Forecast accuracy hardly improves with method complexity when completing cohort fertility

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115:37, 9187–9192. (2018)

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Research

Department Myrskylä
Laboratory of Fertility and Well-Being

Laboratory of Population Health
Research Group: Labor Demography
Department Zagheni
Laboratory of Digital and Computational Demography [Migration, Aging, the Environment]
Joint Research Labs
Laboratory of Demographic Data
Laboratory of Statistical Demography
Independent Research Groups
Research Group: Lifespan Inequalities
Research Group: Mathematical and Actuarial Demography
Max Planck Research Group: Gender Gap in Health and Survival