Laboratory

Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Mortality Disparities at the Subnational Level

Conducted by Dmitri A. Jdanov; Domantas Jasilionis, László Németh, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov; in Collaboration with Pekka Martikainen (MPIDR), Magali Barbieri (University of California, Berkeley, USA and French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France), Vladimir Canudas Romo, Sergey Timonin (both: Australian National University, Canberra, Australia), Lajos Bálint (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary), Alda Azevedo (University of Lisbon, Portugal), Filipe Ribeiro (University of Évora, Portugal), France Meslé, Jacques Vallin (both: French National Institute for Demographic Studies, Paris, France), Sebastian Klüsener, Pavel Grigoriev (both: Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany), Henrik Brønnum-Hansen (University of Copenhagen, Denmark), Daumantas Stumbrys (Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania)

Detailed Description

Persisting longevity and mortality disparities between and within countries are considered key challenges for longevity sustainability and mortality improvements. Numerous studies have highlighted a close relationship between higher mortality rates at the national level and pronounced disparities at the subnational level. Prior studies have confirmed that higher national life expectancy masks substantial mortality inequalities across socioeconomic population groups and administrative units.

The vast majority of current relevant studies focus on mortality disparities by socioeconomic status. They show that the most vulnerable population groups are affected by high mortality, and they assess changes in the magnitude of inequality. This project additionally focuses on the mortality of advantaged groups and the regions with the lowest mortality. Longevity in such vanguard subpopulations represents the highest possible survival under current macroscopic conditions. These levels are realistic horizons for entire populations, and can be used as predictors of future mortality.

A primary task of the project is to generate coherent datasets on subnational mortality, with a primary focus on countries with developed statistical systems. The project also pursues a similar pilot study in Indian regions, focusing on alternative data sources (the Sample Registration System and surveys) and estimation techniques.

This project relies on prior experience gained from building the Human Mortality Database (HMD) extensions, which include life table estimates at the subnational (i.e., regional) level. We address several methodological challenges, such as estimating robust life tables for small population groups and regions. The methodological part of this project relies on both the existing methodological foundations of the HMD and more advanced methods, such as Bayesian modeling. Successful country-specific datasets will be released as independent projects under the HMD umbrella.

Publications

Grigoriev, P.; Jasilionis, D.; Timonin, S. A.; Levchuk, N.; Shevchuk, P.; Penina, O.; Kovács, K.; Klüsener, S.:

Geographical divides in male premature mortality in the CEE–FSU European region: an ecological study of 2320 spatial units in 12 countries, 2003–2019

BMC Public Health 4:1, 1–11. (2026)    

Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Nepomuceno, M. R.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Janssen, F.:

Seasonal mortality and its impact on spatial inequality in life expectancy across Italy

European Journal of Population 41:30, 1–22. (2025)    

Manthey, J.; Jasilionis, D.; Jiang, H.; Meščeriakova-Veliulienė, O.; Petkevičienė, J.; Radišauskas, R.; Štelemėkas, M.; Rehm, J.:

The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis

BMC Medicine 21:22, 1–10. (2023)    

Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Grigoriev, P.; Klüsener, S.; Janssen, F.:

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in the German federal states in 2020 and 2021

PLOS One 18:12, e0295763–e0295763. (2023)    

Stickley, A.; Baburin, A.; Jasilionis, D.; Krumins, J.; Martikainen, P.; Kondo, N.; Shin, J. I.; Oh, H.; Waldman, K.; Leinsalu, M.:

Educational inequalities in hypothermia mortality in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000–2015

European Journal of Public Health 33:4, 555–560. (2023)    

Grigoriev, O.; Doblhammer, G.:

Does the mortality of individuals with severe disabilities contribute to the persistent East–West mortality gap among German men?

European Journal of Population 38:2, 247–271. (2022)    

Grigoriev, P.; Klüsener, S.; van Raalte, A. A.:

Quantifying the contribution of smoking to regional mortality disparities in Germany: a cross-sectional study

BMJ Open 12:9, e064249–e064249. (2022)    

Timonin, S. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.; Andreev, E. M.:

New perspective on geographical mortality divide in Russia: a district-level cross-sectional analysis, 2008-2012

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 74:2, 144–150. (2020)    

Timonin, S. A.; Danilova, I. A.; Andreev, E. M.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:

Recent mortality trend reversal in Russia: are regions following the same tempo?

European Journal of Population 33:5, 733–763. (2017)