Laboratory

Demographic Data

At a Glance Projects Publications Team

Project

Understanding Divergences in Longevity Trends

Dmitri A. Jdanov, Domantas Jasilionis, Moradhvaj Dhakad; in Collaboration with Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (MPIDR), David Leon (The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom)

Detailed Description

This project is devoted to monitoring and understanding recent divergences in life expectancy across global regions with a special focus on Europe and high-income countries. In particular, we consider slowdowns and reversals in cause-specific mortality and life expectancy trends, and identify possible determinants of these developments, using population-level data and the health transition theoretical framework.

From a longer-term comparative perspective, there have been two major divergences from the general trend of rising life expectancy over the last two centuries. First, the well-documented East-West mortality divide in Europe has been attributed to long-term stagnation or even an increase in mortality in former communist countries after the mid-1960s. The second case refers to the mortality crisis due to the AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Unfavorable trends have also been observed in some low-mortality Western countries, such as the USA and the UK, over the past two decades. Moreover, recent studies show that progress in some high-income countries appears insufficient, despite their many advantages (e.g., high health care spending or strong social welfare policies). For example, Germany, which has some of the highest health care expenditures and a modern and equitable health care system, has been a long-term laggard in life expectancy among Western countries. Another example concerns Finland, which has long been praised for its CVD prevention policies, but still has high cardiovascular mortality. These two cases, along with other outliers, call for more in-depth comparative studies focusing on the best- and worst-performing countries. The project also explores the role of mortality reductions at the most advanced ages, which are the key driver of sustainable longevity improvements.

Publications

Leon, D. A.; Jdanov, D. A.; Medina-Jaudes, N.; Danilova, I. A.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:

Long-term negative divergence in mortality at ages 25–49 years between the United Kingdom and 21 peer countries between 1990 and 2019

European Journal of Epidemiology, 1–12. (2026)    

Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Nepomuceno, M. R.; Islam, N.; Janssen, F.:

Seasonality in mortality and its impact on life expectancy levels and trends across Europe

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 79:6, 466–473. (2025)    

Jasilionis, D.; van Raalte, A. A.; Klüsener, S.; Grigoriev, P.:

Re: The pitfalls of focusing on cardiovascular disease mortality to explain differences in life expectancy [Correspondence]

European Journal of Epidemiology 39, 339–341. (2024)    

Jdanov, D. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Shkolnikov, V. M.:

Two-dimensional contour decomposition: decomposing mortality differences into initial difference and trend components by age and cause of death

Demographic Research 50:41, 1224–1246. (2024)    

Jasilionis, D.; Meslé, F.; Vallin, J.:

Is East-West life expectancy gap narrowing in the enlarged European Union?

Comparative Population Studies 48, 523–552. (2023)    

Jasilionis, D.; van Raalte, A. A.; Klüsener, S.; Grigoriev, P.:

The underwhelming German life expectancy

European Journal of Epidemiology 38:8, 839–850. (2023)