Research Group

Mathematical and Actuarial Demography

At a Glance Projects Publications Team


Mortality Modeling, Forecasting Mortality, and Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Conducted by Roland Rau; Marcus Ebeling, Christina Bohk-Ewald, James W. Vaupel; in Collaboration with Frederik Peters (University of Rostock, Germany), Fernando Colchero (Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging / University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark), Carl Schmertmann (Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA), Joel E. Cohen (Rockefeller University, New York / Columbia University, New York, USA), Felix zur Nieden (Federal Statistical Office, Wiesbaden, Germany), Marc Luy (Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria)

This project aims to find, first, innovative methods to model age-profiles of mortality, especially for small areas; second, to develop new models to forecast mortality; and third, to devise new methods to evaluate the accuracy and plausibility of mortality forecasts.  Detailed Description

Research Keywords:

Ageing, Mortality and Longevity, Projections and Forecasting, Statistics and Mathematics

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.