Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Variance effects in Bongaarts-Feeney formula
Abstract: Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects, i.e., changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1895. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: http://muse.jhu.edu/issue/475
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-1999-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arjan Gjonca
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Chris Wilson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jane Falkingham
Title: Can diet and life style explain regional differences in adult mortality in the Balkans?
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Reproductive history and mortality later in life: a comparative study of England & Wales and Austria
Abstract: Does a woman’s reproductive history influence her life span? This study explores the question on the basis of data from two contemporary female populations: England & Wales and Austria. It is the first comparative study that investigates the relationship between fertility and mortality late in life. We find similar patterns and age-specific trends of excess mortality in both populations: parity significantly influences longevity, as do both an early and a late birth. These differences in longevity are not explained by differences in educational or family status. The impact of a woman’s reproductive history on her life span is minor, however, compared to the influence of her level of education or family status. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jere R. Behrman
Author-Name: Susan Cotts Watkins
Title: The structure of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from S. Nyanza District, Kenya
Abstract: Demographers have increasingly argued that social interaction is an important mechanism for understanding fertility behavior. Yet, substantial uncertainty exists whether ´social learning´ or ´social influence´ constitutes the dominant mechanism through which social networks affect individual´s contraceptive decisions. This paper argues that thesse mechanism can be distinguished by analyzing the density of the social network ant its interaction with the proportion of contraceptive users among network partners. Our analyses that in areas with high market activity social learning is most relevant, where in regions with only modest market activity social influence constitutes the dominant mechanism of how social networks affect women´s contraceptive use. In areas in which social influence retards diffusion of family planning, therefore, with sufficient market development social learning may become more important than social influence and accelerate diffusion. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: http://muse.jhu.edu/issue/475
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-1999-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cancer rates over age, time, and place: insights from stochastic models of heterogeneous populations
Abstract: Individuals at the same age in the same population differ along numerous risk factors that affect their chances of various causes of death. The frail and susceptible tend to die first. This differential selection may partially account for some of the puzzles in cancer epidemiology, including the lack of apparent progress in reducing cancer incidence and mortality rates over time. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Swedish baby boom and bust of 1985-1996 revisited: the role of tempo, quantum and variance effects
Abstract: Variance effects, i.e., increases in the standard deviation of the fertility schedule over time, constitute a systematic and interesting aspect of recent fertility patterns in Europe. In this paper we investigate the relevance of these variance change for the evaluationof Swedish baby boom and bust in terms of tempo and quantum effects. Using an extension of the adjusted TFR that incorporates variance changes, we show that there was no reduction in the pace of postponement of first births in Sweden during the period 1980-1995. Thus, the baby boom was overwhelmingly due to quantum effects, and did not  have a relevant tempo component as suggested by the TFR-adjustment without variance effects. Moreover, the tempo changes duringthis period clearly reflect the implications of the policy changes in the 1980s: while the tempo for first births remained relatively constant, the tempo at higher orders was reduced substantially after the extension of policies that favor short interbirth intervals. However, this pattern is not visible in the tempo effects without adjestment for variance effects. We therefore argue that variance effects deserve further attention in the investigation of recent fertility patterens and in the adjustment of total fertility rate. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Tempo effects in the fertility decline in Eastern Europe: evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia
Creation-Date: 1999
Number: WP-1999-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arjan Gjonca
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cecilia Tomassini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Male-female differences in mortality in the developed world
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hilke Brockmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Girls preferred? Changing patterns of gender preferences in the two German states
Abstract: Parental preferences for the sex of children are a prominent subject of study in some Asian and African countries where sex-selective behavior has led to skewed sex-ratios. In Europe or North-America, by contrast, cross-sectional data does not reveal any clear pattern of sex-preferences. However, this does not mean that people are indifferent to the sex of their children. Taking a longitudinal perspective, this paper shows how sex-preferences in Germany have changed over time and in response to changes in welfare regime. Based on German cohort data, event-history models reveal a significant boy-preference among women born before 1910 during the German Reich. After the world war II, women in West-Germany never developed a clear sex-preference, but cohorts born in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) show a significant preference for girls. This pattern is absorbed by the pro-family policy that was launched by the socialist regime during the seventies. In conclusion, the paper argues that the process of modernization does not neutralize sex-preferences as is often assumed. Rather, it may give rise to diverging sex-preferences depending on the specific type of welfare regime. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arjan Gjonca
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hilke Brockmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heiner Maier
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Old-age mortality in Germany prior to and after reunification
Abstract: Recent trends in German life expectancy show a considerable increase. Most of this increase has resulted from decreasing mortality at older ages. Patterns of oldest old mortality (ages 80+) differed significantly between men and women as well as between East and West Germany. While West German oldest old mortality decreased since the mid 1970s, comparable decreases in East Germany did not become evident until the late 1980s. Yet, the East German mortality decline accelerated after German reunification in 1990, particularly among East German females, attesting to the plasticity of human life expectancy and the importance of late life events. Medical care, individual economic resources and life-style factors are discussed as potential determinants of the decline in old age mortality in Germany. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/3/1
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-1999-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Reproductive history and mortality later in life for Austrian women
Abstract: How does a woman’s reproductive history influence her life span? We find that parity and both an early and late birth significantly influence longevity. The impact of a woman’s reproductive history on her life span is minor, however, compared to the influence of her level of education or family status. Differences according to reproductive history are not explained by differences in educational status or family status. The mortality advantage of women who gave birth in their forties (late mothers) mainly originates from their comparatively lower risk of heart disease, despite an increase in the risk of breast cancer. Do women who give birth later in life age at a slower rate or is their mortality proportionally lower at all ages? We present evidence that from age 70 onward late mothers age at a lower rate. This may be the result of both biological and social factors. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joseph L. Rodgers
Author-Name: Roland Rau
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Seasonality of birth in nineteenth and twentieth century Austria: steps toward a unified theory of human reproductive seasonality
Abstract: We present an analysis of birth seasonality in nine geographical regions within Austria for two time periods, 1881-1912 and 1947-1959. In the early period, geography, climate, and agricultural patterns were related to birth seasonality. By the later time period, these factors were no longer related to birth seasonality. We propose a “resilience hypothesis,” which suggests two levels of causal influences on birth seasonality. First, underlying the three significant features of birth seasonality patterns around the world are only a small number of major causes. But, second, there are a multiplicity of minor causes that result in small perturbations in the patterns.(AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Piero Manfredi
Author-Name: Alessandro Valentini
Title: Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy
Abstract: We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one-sex, stable population model to evaluate structural and long-term effects of changes in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba (1996) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on reproduction and on the age structure of the population. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/08898480009525494
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas Romo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How mortality improvement increases population growth
Creation-Date: 1999
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-1999-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-1999-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-1999-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-1999-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hilke Brockmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Why is health treatment for the elderly less expensive than for the rest of the population? Health care rationing in Germany
Abstract: The consequences of population ageing for the health care system and health care costs may be less severe than is commonly assumed. Hospital discharge data from Germany’s largest health insurer (AOK) show that the care of patients during their last year of life is less costly if they die at an advanced age. As a multivariate analysis reveals, oldest old patients receive less costly treatment for the same illness than younger patients. Health care is informally rationed according to the age of the patient. The data also indicate that age-related rationing may be more pronounced in Germany than in the United States. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Kögel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap
Abstract: Industrialization allowed the industrialized world of today to escape from a regime characterized by low economic and population growth and to enter a regime of hihg economic and population growth. To explain this transion of regime, we construct a two-sector growth model with endogenous fertility and endogenous technological progress in the manufacturing sector. With this structure our model is able to replicate the stylized facts of the British industrial revolution. In addition, we show that industrialization requires rising growth of agricultural total factor productivity. This result is in marked contrast to previous work within a similar framework - but with a constant population - wich came to the conclusion that industrialization requires merely a rising level of agricultural total factor productivity. We conclude by illustrating that our proposed model framework can be extended to also include the demographic transition, i.e., a regime where economic growth may lead to decreasing fertility. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: demographic transition, economic growth, Malthusian theory, population growth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does the availability of childcare influence the employment of mothers? Findings from western Germany
Abstract: There is a vast empirical literature investigating the effects of childcare costs on female employment. Day-care costs are usually treated as a reduction in female wages and are supposed to reduce a woman’s propensity to participate in the labor market. In this paper we argue that an analysis of the effects of childcare on the employment of mothers in Germany should focus on the availability rather than the affordability of care, due to peculiarities of the German day-care regime. Our empirical findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of the current German day-care regime. Specifically, we question the extent to which it enables mothers to participate in the labor market. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Employment careers and the timing of first births in East Germany
Abstract: When German unification was accompanied by a rapid decline in aggregate fertility rates, researchers particularly assigned high unemployment rates a dominant role for changes in fertility behavior. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate changes in the timing of first birth in East Germany after unification. Using data from the SOEP, we show that even after unification East Germans are younger at first birth than their West German counterparts. Second, we investigate the relationship between male and female unemployment and first birth risks. A major result is that female unemployment fosters the transition into parenthood in East Germany. (AUTHORS) 
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: J. C. Rodgers
Title: DF-analyses of heritability with double-entry twin data: asymptotic standard errors and efficient estimation
Abstract: In this paper we establish the asymptotic distribution of DeFries-Fulker (1985) regression estimates for heritability and shared environmental influences with double-entry twin data. A simple formula to estimate the covariance matrix of the coefficients in DF-regressions is provided, and applications to simulated data and Dabish twin data show that this method can substantially increase the statistical power of the analyses. We also provide an ´efficient DF-analysis´ that yields more precise estimates when additional covariates are included among the explanatory variables. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010253411274
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2000-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ulf-Christian Ewert
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Private car use in Austria by demographic structure and regional  variations
Abstract: Due to its manifold impact on the environment private car use represents an important dimension of en-vironmental behaviour in industrialized countries. Obviously, private car use is related to demographic characteris-tics of households such as the life-cycle stage and the living arrangement the household lives in. In addition sys-tematic regional differences of private car use have to be taken into account. In this paper a causal model is de-rived, which aims to explain regional variations in car use (as measured by the distance driven) by regional demo-graphic differences and region-specific control factors such as attitudes towards car use, car technology, and insti-tutional factors. Using aggregate data from an household survey in Austria and data from Austrian official statistics causal effect coefficients are then estimated. By applying path analysis the estimated effects of regional demo-graphic characteristics on region-specific car use can be decomposed into direct and indirect effects, with the latter effects being mediated by the control factors. Almost no significant direct demographic effect on car use can be found. Region-specific averages of distances driven are best predicted by using the considered control factors as predictor variables. Nevertheless, many of the presumed indirect effects turn out to be of importance. For instance, the regional mean age of household heads can be discerned as a key factor of demographic effects on car use since it significantly influences several of the region-specific control factors. Moreover our results evidence that the regional pattern of car use is covered by various combinations of control factors. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gebremariam Woldemicael
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sex composition of children as a determinant of marriage disruption and marriage formation: evidence from Swedish register data
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether there are any effects of the sex composition of children on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter into and exit from marriage. We use Swedish population-register data in order to estimate relative risks of marriage formation and marriage dissolution for mothers with different numbers and sexes of their children. The magnitude of our data allows us to get a very accurate picture of possible relationships of that nature even if they are relatively weak. Morgan et al. (1988) used survey data for the US and claimed to have found that one- and two-child parents in that country have lower divorce risks if they have sons than if they have daughters. For Sweden, we only find a minor effect in the same direction for three-child mothers. For two-child mothers, we instead find that the divorce risk is slightly reduced if a woman has one child of each sex. The divorce risk of one-child mothers is not at all affected by the sex of their child. Finally, we examine whether there are any effects of the sex composition of children on the propensity of Swedish mothers to enter the married state. We find that this is not the case. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
Number: WP-2000-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the changing impact of union formation on the transition to parenthood in West Germany and Italy using FFS data. We first draw attention to overall cohort patterns in union formation and first births and then describe the mutual relationships between union formation, first marriage, and first births. On the basis of event-history models, we then evaluate the impact of union formation behaviour on the transition to motherhood. In particular, we test whether the impact of union status has been changing for younger and older cohorts, thereby investigating whether the heterogeneous spread of non-marital childbearing is gaining relevance as we would expect from the perspective of the Second Demographic Transition. The findings from these analyses allow us to conclude that demographic behaviour is not converging from a cohort perspective. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany/FRG, Italy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Stark
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The public perception and discussion of falling birth rates: the recent debate over low fertility in the popular press
Abstract: Aspects of below-replacement fertility have long been debated among academics. Analyzing 437 popular newspaper and magazine articles from eleven developed countries during 1998-99, this study documents and investigates the corresponding public debate about low fertility. Despite the diversity in the debates of eleven countries, due to the countries´ different socioeconomic, political and demographic backrounds, our study finds important commonalties of the public debates about low fertility: First, countries emphasize consequences and potential interventions rather than causes in their public debate over lover fertility. Second, our study undoubtedly reveals that the public media perceives low fertility as a serious concern with mostly negative implications, despite the fact that many of the causes of low fertility are associated with social and economic progress. Third, the variety of issues and perspectives revealed in the public debate, while cohesive in general ways, invites a role for demographers in informing an accurate public discussion of low fertility, which will help form the most appropriate policy outcomes. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Johannes Fürnkranz
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Timing, sequencing and quantum of life course events: a machine learning approach
Abstract: In this methodological paper we discuss and apply machine learning tech-niques, a core research area in the artificial intelligence literature, to analyse simultaneously timing, sequencing, and quantum of life course events from a comparative perspective. We outline the need for techniques which allow the adoption of a holistic approach to the analysis of life courses, illustrating the specific case of the transition to adulthood. We briefly introduce machine learning algorithms to build decision trees and rule sets and then apply such algorithms to delineate the key features which distinguish Austrian and Ital-ian pathways to adulthood, using Fertility and Family Survey data. The key role of sequencing and synchronisation between events emerges clearly from the methodology used. [AUTHORS] 
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.ofai.at/publications
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2000-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational attainment and first births: East Germany before and after unification
Abstract: There is a general belief that female educational attainment has a delaying effect on the age at first birth. In this paper we argue that the validity of this hypothesis relies on at least three prerequisites. First, that child rearing and employment is incompatible. Second, that a withdrawal from the labor market harms labor market upward mobility. Third, that child rearing responsibilities are shared according to traditional gender roles. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze the impact of educational attainment on first birth risks in East and West Germany before and after unification. A major result is that, compared to West Germany, the impact of educational attainment on first birth risks is less strong in East Germany. This also applies to the period after unification. We attribute this to the relative abundance of public day care in the East. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Fausta Ongaro
Title: The impact of income and occupational status on leaving home: evidence from the Italian ECHP sample
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the role economic resources play in the decision of young Italian adults to leave the parental home. This is of particular interest given that, in Italy, young people leave home considerably later than in other European countries. We use the first two waves of the Italian sample of the European Community Household Panel. We use a Heckman selection-type probit procedure to account for left censoring and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that economic circumstances are important. In particular we find that men’s employment status is a crucial factor in leaving home. We also find noticeable gender differences. For men stable employment is the most important prerequisite to starting their own household, whereas for women, acquiring a partner is the crucial step to becoming independent of their parents. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9914.00175
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2000-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas A. Di Prete
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Estimating causal effects with matching methods in the presence and absence of bias cancellation
Abstract: This paper explores the implications of possible bias cancellation using Rubin-style matching methods with complete and incomplete data. After reviewing the naïve causal estimator and the approaches of Heckman and Rubin to the causal estimation problem, we show how missing data can complicate the estimation of average causal effects in different ways, depending upon the nature of the missing mechanism. While - contrary to published assertions in the literature - bias cancellation does not generally occur when the multivariate distribution of the errors is symmetric, bias cancellation has been observed to occur for the case where selection into training is the treatment variable, and earnings is the outcome variable. A substantive rationale for bias cancellation is offered, which conceptualizes bias cancellation as the result of a mixture process based on two distinct individual-level decision-making models. While the general properties are unknown, the existence of bias cancellation appears to reduce the average bias in both OLS and matching methods relative to the symmetric distribution case. Analysis of simulated data under a set of difference scenarios suggests that matching methods do better than OLS in reducing that portion of bias that comes purely from the error distribution (i.e., from “selection on unobservables”). This advantage is often found also for the incomplete data case. Matching appears to offer no advantage over OLS in reducing the impact of bias due purely to selection on unobservable variables when the error variables are generated by standard multivariate normal distributions, which lack the bias-cancellation property. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Die Neue Demografie - Vortrag anläßlich der 5. Schweriner Wissenschaftstage zum Thema "Bevölkerungsrückgang in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - Katastrophe oder Chance?" am 1. und 2. Dezember 2000
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic resources and single motherhood: incidence and resolution of premarital childbearing among young American women
Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of out-of-wedlock childbearing and the consequent family formation behaviour after such an event. The analysis is undertaken by specifying a multi-state, multi-spell duration model, with dynamic interactions. The results suggest that the economic resources which young women face are indeed important, not only as determinants of premarital childbearing, but also for how out-of-wedlock childbearing is resolved. Simulations indicates that welfare generosity and family resources are the most important determinants, whereas personal earnings potential plays a less important role. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2000
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2000-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2000-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2000-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2000-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José A. Ortega
Title: Period parity progression measures with continued fertility postponement: a new look at the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility
Abstract: In this paper we introduce a new set of period parity progression measures with continued fertility postponement in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages where the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide an unified toolkit of fertility measures that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort behavior, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility using the most recently observed period-quantum and tempo changes. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden during 1970-1999. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/6/6
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2001-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The transferability of foreign educational credentials - the case of ethnic German migrants in the German labor market
Abstract: Since the breakdown of communism, Germany has experienced a major influx of Ethnic German migrants from Eastern Europe. In this paper, we use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel of the year 1998 to analyze the integration of Ethnic German migrants into the German labor market. We particularly focus on the transferability of educational credentials for the labor market integration of migrants. Although there are official procedures for Ethnic Germans to have their educational and vocational certificates recognized, only half of them are working in the occupation they were actually trained for. However, for migrants working in their trained occupation is a prerequisite for performing well in the German labor market. The problems Ethnic German migrants are faced with transferring their vocational skills lead us to some general conclusions on the dominant allocation mechanisms and also predictions on the fate of future migrant populations in the German labor market. (AUTHORS) 
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katja Tillmann
Author-Name: Gert G. Wagner
Title: Außerhäusliche Kinderbetreuung in Ostdeutschland vor und nach der Wiedervereinigung. Ein Vergleich mit Westdeutschland in den Jahren 1990-1999
Abstract: This paper provides first a concise overview of institutional day-care arrangements and their extent in the former GDR. Then institutional and infrastructural changes since German re-unification in 1990 are briefly discussed. In the empirical part, data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for the period 1990 to 1999 are used to analyze the actual day-care situation for children living in eastern Germany. The paper concludes with considerations of the consequences of a changing day-care situation for the opportunities of women (particularly mothers) in the New Länder to participate in the labor force. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Simon Burgess
Author-Name: Andrew Chesher
Author-Name: Carol Propper
Title: Transitions from home to marriage of young Americans
Abstract: The paper examines the impact of income on the transitions between home, living independently and first marriage of young Americans. A matching model is outlined, similar to that used in theories of job search, to explain the probability of marriage and living alone. A multiple state, multiple transition model which allows for correlated heterogeneity on the first and subsequent transitions is estimated. The result show that income has a strong and significant effect. The impact of unobserved heterogeneuty is examined in detail. The impact of the young person´s earning on the transitions is explored through simulation. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Romina Fraboni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Measure and dynamics of marriage squeezes: from baby boom to baby bust in Italy
Abstract: Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze. Italy provides an interesting case study because since World War II, it has been characterised by alternate periods of declines and rises of the annual number of births an by their differential patterns between regions. In this paper we study the dynamics of the Italian marriage market (year 1969-1995) by using some indexes proposed by Schoen as well as two additional measures. The result of regional analysis also suggest that marriage squeeze has also been by international migratory movements. The recent and prolonged phase of steep fertility decline in Italy, together with the drop of international movements, suggests the possibility of a perspective increasing disadvantage of men in the marriage market. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Axel Skytthe
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Title: The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: findings from a sample of identical twins
Abstract: In this paper we use new methods and data to reassess the relationship between the age at first birth and completed fertility. In particular we attempt to properly estimate the postponement effect, i.e., the reduction in fertility associated with a delay in childbearing, using a sample of Danish monozygotic twins born 1945--60 to control for unobserved heterogeneity. Within-MZ twin pair estimates of the postponement effect indicate that a one year delay in the first birth reduces completed fertility by about 3% for both males and females. The effect is significantly stronger for older cohorts, and it is stronger for females with a late desired entry into parenthood. Analyses that fail to control for unobservables underestimate this postponement effect between 10--25%, and they underestimate the annual decline of this effect by up to 50%. Moreover, our estimates indicate important changes across cohorts in the relevance of child-preferences and ability characteristics for the age at first birth and the pace and level of subsequent fertility. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lawrence R. Carter
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Examining structural shifts in mortality using the Lee-Carter method
Abstract: We present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30 24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1) the multiple realizations of the index of mortality to which each respective age-specific death rate is linearly related; 2) the average shape across age of the log of mortality schedules; 3) the sensitivity of the log of mortality at each age to variations in the elements of the index of mortality. We refer to these latter submatrices to locate structural changes in mortality patterns. A comparison of the observed and estimated life expectancy indicates that the extended Lee-Carter method is superior to the original Lee-Carter method, particularly so for life expectancies at higher ages. We conclude by projecting life expectancy up to 2050, applying the Lee-Carter method to the whole time series (1947-1999) and comparing it to an application of the Lee-Carter method to the latest subsample (1976-1999). (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sumon K. Bhaumik
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Intergenerational transfers: the ignored role of time
Abstract: The literature on inter vivos and intergenerational transfers has largely focussed on the possible determinants of such transfers. Specifically, much of the empirical work has examined whether transfers are driven by altruistic relationship between “dynastic” households. However, the empirical literature has consistently overlooked the possibility that transfers may be driven by specific events in the recipients’ lives like marriage, childbirth and illness. Further, it has not addressed the possibility that within a reasonably long time frame – say, one year – transfers may influence household income as much as household income influences the probability and magnitude of transfers. This paper addresses these lacunae in the existing literature. Using GSOEP data from the 1996 and 1997 surveys, it shows that demographic and other events determine transfers to a significant extent, and also that overlooking the possible endogeneity of income may lead to bias in the econometric estimations. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gérad Calot
Title: Cohort childbearing age patterns in low-fertility countries in the late 20th century: Is the postponement of births an inherent element?
Abstract: Major changes in the age patterns of fertility were characteristic of fertility trends following the Second World War. The paper provides an overview and analysis of changes in age patterns of cohort childbearing in low-fertility countries during the second half of the 20 th century. In Western countries cohorts born around 1940 had earlier childbearing than those of 1930. Early childbearing persisted among cohorts born during the 1940s, although generally at a lower level. Major shifts occurred among the cohorts born during the 1950s. These women incurred considerable fertility deficits when young and compensated, at least in part if not totally, with surpluses when they reached their upper twenties and thirties. Many of the postponed births were made up. The decline in fertility among young women continues in the cohorts born during the 1960s and 1970s. In the formerly socialist countries the fertility decline among young women commenced with those born in the late 1950s and is continuing among those born in the 1960s and 1970s. In almost all low-fertility countries each cohort of young women born in the 1960s and 1970s is having fewer children than preceding ones. It appears unrealistic to expect that these cohorts will eventually attain replacement levels because of the considerable deficits incurred when young. Their fertility when older would have to be extraordinarily high even to realize completed fertility of the cohorts born around 1960, which on average was below replacement. A postponement of births regarded as temporary by the couples involved with many of the postponed births never being born, as well as conscious decisions to have fewer births than previous cohorts, appear to be continuing processes in most countries. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden and Hungary: initiation of a project of descriptions of demographic behavior
Abstract: In this paper, we present a system of descriptions of family-demographic behavior in developed countries. We use life-table techniques in order to describe the experiences of men, women, and children in processes related to family formation and family dissolution. We develop a large number of descriptive measures and apply them to survey data from Sweden and Hungary. The paper demonstrates the potential of our descriptive system for further cross-country comparisons of the demographic behavior in European countries. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Hungary, Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childbearing patterns of foreign-born women in Sweden
Abstract: In this paper, we present an investigation of patterns in childbearing among foreign-born women in Sweden from the early 1960s and onwards. It is performed in a similar way as a previous study by the author who analyzed childbearing patterns of Swedish-born women in that country by applying event-history techniques to population-register data. We base our study on the longitudinal information on childbearing and migration of 446.000 women born abroad who had ever lived in Sweden before the end of 1999. We display period trends in fertility by birth order for some aggregated groups of foreign-born women and find that developments over time have been quite similar for Swedish- and foreign-born women but that there exist important differences in levels of childbearing intensities between women stemming from different countries. When we examine patterns in childbearing by time since migration to Sweden, we find that such differences in most cases are due to the fact that immigrants tend to display higher levels of childbearing shortly after immigration. We conclude that migration and family building in many cases are interrelated processes and that it is always important to account for time since migration when fertility of immigrants is studied. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Qihua Tan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Else M. Bladbjerg
Author-Name: Moniek De Maat
Author-Name: Karen Andersen-Ranberg
Author-Name: Bernard Jeune
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A case-only approach for assessing gene-sex interaction in human longevity
Abstract: As one aspect of the complex feature of longevity, gene-sex interaction plays an important role in influencing human life span. With advances in molecular genetics, more studies aimed at assessing gene-sex interaction are expected. New and valid statistical methods are needed. In this paper, we introduce a nontraditional approach, the case-only design, which was originally proposed for assessing gene and disease associations, to detect gene-sex interaction in human longevity. Applications of this method to data collected from centenarian studies show that it can produce consistent results as compared with results obtained from case-control and other approaches. Important features of the application in human longevity studies are highlighted and discussed. Since centenarians constitute a special population representing successful ageing, the easily applicable case-only approach will be an important tool for screening potential major genes that contribute to human longevity. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Iliana Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility decline in Russia after 1990: the role of economic uncertainty and labor market crises
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/publications/files/942_1032166505_1_PDF%20version.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2001-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pau Baizán Munoz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leaving home in Europe: the experience of cohorts born around 1960
Abstract: In this paper we analyse the leaving home experience of men and women born around 1960 in 16 European countries. We use extensive empirical evidence from Fertility and Family Survey data, providing a large-scale comparison. We focus on some key indicators of the process of leaving home: the timing, sequencing and synchronisation of leaving home with the end of education and the formation of a first union. As far as these dimensions of leaving home are concerned, Europe appears to be extremely heterogeneous, and explaining this will undoubtedly be a challenge. The complex interplay between the present economic situation of young people and long-term institutional and cultural factors is thought to be the main driving factor. Our findings constitute a benchmark against which subsequent behaviour, such as that of cohorts coming of age after the fall of the Iron Curtain, could be compared. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regional social contexts and individual fertility decisions: a multilevel analysis of first and second births in Western Germany
Abstract: In this paper, a multilevel approach is used to investigate whether and how regional social contexts influence first and second birth probabilities of women living in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. In the theoretical part it is argued that regional opportunity structures as well as local patterns of social interaction and culture may translate into parameters that directly affect individual behaviour. Individual level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) are then linked with a set of regional indicators to estimate multilevel discrete-time logit models for the transition to the first and second child. The empirical analysis provides no evidence that the distinct fertility differences observed at the regional level are due to autonomous contextual effects. It is rather suggested that most of the observed regional variation may be due to differences in the spatial distribution of individual characteristics. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), fertility, geography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Autonomy or conservative adjustment? The effect of public policies and educational attainment on third births in Austria
Abstract: The standardised rate of third births declined by over 50 percent in Austria between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s. The third birth was also postponed gradually over the years up through 1991-92, after which the tempo of childbearing suddenly increased in response to a change in the parental-leave policy. This new policy inadvertently favoured women who had their second or subsequent child shortly after their previous one. We cannot find any indication that the general decline in third births can be seen as a consequence of women’s increasing independence from their husbands at the stage in life we study. Furthermore, it still seems to be more difficult to combine motherhood and labour-force participation in Austria than in Sweden, which is a leader in reducing this incompatibility. These developments reflect the tension between advancing gender equality and the dominance of traditional norms in Austria. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
Number: WP-2001-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexander Z. Begun
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gini coefficient as a life table function: computation from discrete data, decomposition of differences and empirical examples
Abstract: This paper presents a toolkit for measuring and analysing inter-individual inequality in length of life by Gini coefficient. Gini coefficient is treated as an additional function of the life table. A new method for the estimation of Gini coefficient from life table data has been developed and tested on the basis of hundreds of life tables. The method provides precise estimates of Gini coefficient for abridged life tables even if the last age group is 85+. New formulae have been derived for the decomposition of differences in Gini coefficient by age and cause of death. A method for further decomposition of age-components into effects of mortality and population group has been developed. It permits the linking of inter-individual inequalities in length of life with inter-group inequalities. Empirical examples include the decomposition of secular decrease in Gini coefficient in the USA by age, decomposition of the difference in Gini coefficient between the UK and the USA by age and cause of death, temporal changes in the effects of elimination of causes of death on Gini coefficient, and decomposition of changes in Gini coefficient in Russia by age and educational group. Consideration of the variations in Gini coefficient during the last decades and across modern populations show that these variations are driven not only by historical shifts in the distribution of deaths by age, but also by peculiar health and social situations. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol8/11/8-11.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2001-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annette Kohlmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sergej M. Zuev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Patterns of childbearing in Russia 1994 - 1998
Abstract: In this paper we analyze the determinants of births in Russia in the 1990s and the changes in their effects since the 1980s and factors influencing fertility intentions in the 1990s. In the first part, based on the current social and economic situation in Russia, specific hypotheses for different parities (realized and intended fertility) are developed and subsequently tested by using logistic regression methods. On the basis of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) we find that the social differentiation that took place in Russia in the 1990s resulted in an increasing importance of economic conditions for a first, second or third birth. The same applies to parity-specific intentions.
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childcare and fertility in (western) Germany
Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between children’s day care and fertility in Germany. First, different modes of childcare are discussed with regard to their availability and costs. We then estimate the impact of having access to public day care and care in social networks on first birth probabilities of western German women in the 1980s and 1990s. The empirical analysis does not reveal any statistically significant effect of childcare availability on fertility. We conclude that the overall institutional constraints of day care in (western) Germany prevent the compatibility of childrearing and employment, thereby forcing women to choose between a continuous employment career or childlessness. (AUTHORS)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, child care, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility developments in Norway and Sweden since the early 1960s
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of recent trends in child-bearing in neighboring Norway and Sweden. We use indexes produced by applying indirect standardization to register data of the two countries in order to describe and contrast the fertility developments over the last four decades. Our indexes enable us to decompose overall fertility trends into birth-order specific components and by combining the same kind of data from two countries, we get a very accurate picture of various cross-country differences in fertility levels. We demonstrate how Swedish fertility has fluctuated relatively strongly during the whole study period while Norwegian fertility has evolved more gradually, at least during the last two decades. A turnaround from decreasing to increasing levels of childbearing is evident in 1977 in both countries while a sudden shift to shorter birth intervals is specific to Sweden in the 1980s and contributed to its more spectacular increase in fertility during that decade. (AUTHOR)
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/6/4
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2001-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tomas Kögel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility and women´s employment reconsidered: A macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000
Abstract: This paper examines causality and parameter instability in the long-run relationship between fertility and women’s  employment. This is done by a cross-national comparison of macro-level time series data from 1960–2000 for France, West Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. By applying vector error correction models (a combination of Granger-causality tests with recent econometric time series techniques) we find causality in both directions. This finding is consistent with simultaneous movements of both variables brought about by common exogenous factors such as social norms, social institutions, financial incentives, and the availability and acceptability of contraception. We find a negative and significant correlation until about the mid–1970s and an insignificant or weaker negative correlation afterwards. This result is consistent with a recent hypothesis in the demographic literature according to which changes in the institutional context, such as childcare availability and attitudes towards working mothers, might have reduced the incompatibility between child-rearing and the employment of women.{AUTHORS)
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
Number: WP-2001-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: female employment, fertility, time series
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jere R. Behrman
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Susan Cotts Watkins
Title: How can we measure the causal effects of social networks using observational data? Evidence from the diffusion of family planning and AIDS worries in South Nyanza District, Kenya
Abstract: This study presents estimates that social networks exert causal and substantial influences on individuals’ attitudes and behaviors. The study explicitly allows for the possibility that social networks are not chosen randomly, but rather that important characteristics such as unobserved preferences and unobserved community characteristics determine not only the outcomes of interest but also the informal conversational networks in which they are discussed. Longitudinal survey data from rural Kenya on family-planning and AIDS are used to estimate the impact of social networks while controlling for their unobserved determinants. There are four major findings: First, the endogeneity of social networks can substantially distort the usual cross-sectional estimates of network influences. Second, social networks have significant and substantial effects even after controlling for unobserved factors that may determine the nature of the social networks. Third, these network effects generally are nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, they are relatively large for individuals who have at least one network partner who is perceived to be using contraceptives or or to be at high risk of HIV/AIDS, which is consistent with S-shaped diffusion models that have been emphasized in the literature. Fourth, the effects of networks are not confined to the use of family planning by women, the focus of much of the literature on networks in demography, but appear to be more general, influencing responses to HIV/AIDS, and influencing men as well as women. (AUTHORS)
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gereltuya Altankhuyag
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Changing pattern of fertility behaviour in a time of social and economic change: evidence from Mongolia
Abstract: In 1989, after a long period of socialist rule, Mongolia initiated a democratisation process of its political system together with a transition towards a market economy. This paper examines how changes in socio-economic conditions in Mongolia have affected fertility patterns in recent times. It also provides an outline of changes that have taken place in terms of pro-natalist policies. The study is based on data from the Reproductive Health Survey of Mongolia (RHSM) conducted in 1998. In terms of economic activity we find an inverse, although weak, relationship for older cohorts. This is in strong contrast to the young cohort, for which the economic downturn has had a strongly depressing effect on fertility. We also find important effects of micro level variables, including education and housing. Our findings suggest that the fertility decline observed for the older cohorts are very much part of the first demographic transition, in which the collapse of pro-natalist policies has been influential. (AUTHOR)
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Life-table representations of family dynamics in 16 FFS countries
Abstract: In this paper, we apply a system of description of family-demographic behavior to data derived from a number of Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) conducted in Europe - and to corresponding survey data from the USA. We use life-table techniques in order to describe the experiences of men, women, and children in processes related to family formation and family dissolution during the late 1980s -early 1990s. Our presentation amounts to a large number of cross-country comparisons of the demographic behavior in Eastern and Western Europe with the US used as a contrast. Our system is described in more detail in Andersson and Philipov (2001) and here we apply it to data from Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, USA, Austria, Germany (East and West Germany separately), Flanders, Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. (AUTHORS)
Length: 135 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Riccardo Borgoni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Spatial profiles in the analysis of event histories: an application to first sexual intercourse in Italy
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eckart Voland
Author-Name: Jan Beise
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Opposite effects of maternal and paternal grandmothers on infant survival in historical Krummhörn
Abstract: On the basis of church register entries from the Krummhörn region (Ostfriesland, Germany, 1720-1874) we looked at the question whether the existence or non-existence of grandmothers had an impact on the reproductive success of a family. We found that fertility (measured by intervals between births) was not influenced by grandmothers. However, maternal grandmothers tended to reduce infant mortality when the children were between six and twelve months of age. During these six months, the relative risk of dying was approximately 1.8 times higher if the maternal grandmother was dead at the time of the child’s birth compared to if she was alive. Interestingly, the existence of paternal grandmothers approximately doubled the relative risk of infant mortality during the first month of life. We interpret this as being the result of a tense relationship between mother- and daughter- in-laws. We found that Krummhörn grandmothers could be both helpful and a hindrance at the same time. Geographic proximity tended to increase the effects found. If this ambivalent impact of grandmothers on familial reproduction could be generalized beyond the Krummhörn population, the hypothesis that the evolution of the postgenerative life span could be explained by grandmotherly kin-effects would have to be stated more precisely: the costs of social stress in the male descendency would have to be subtracted from the benefits of aid and assistance in the female descendency. At any rate, the Krummhörn data do not offer a role model for grandmothers who provide unconditional assistance, an effort which in itself could have explained the evolutionary extension of the human life span.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Non-marital births in East Germany after unification
Abstract: In comparison to other European countries, West Germany displays relatively low rates of non-marital childbearing. Since the 1960, there has been a postponement of first birth, an increase in the age at first marriage and an increase in childlessness. Nevertheless, childbearing and marriage remained strongly coupled. In the former East Germany, on the other hand, non-marital childbearing was relatively high compared to other European countries and particularly compared to West Germany. In 1989, the ratio of non-marital births had reached 33 percent. Overwhelmingly, researchers blamed GDR policies for high non-marital birth rates. However, after the breakdown of the GDR regime, the high East German non-marital birth rates did not rebound to West German levels but they sky-rocked, reaching 50 percent in 1999. Using data from the German micro-census of the year 1997, we investigate the hypothesis that high nonmarital births reflect a high labor market orientation among East German women with children. Our empirical results reveal two different patterns in East and West Germany. While in the West a high labor market orientation is indeed related to lower marriage risks, we find the reversed pattern in East Germany. East German women with a college degree and/ or women who have a relatively higher educational attainment than their male partners are more likely to get married when they have children.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Children’s experience of family disruption and family formation: evidence from 16 FFS countries
Abstract: In this paper, we present a number of descriptive measures on children’s experiences of family disruption and family formation. We use data from the Fertility and Family Surveys of 15 European countries and corresponding data from the USA in order to find out what kind of family circumstances children are born into and which experiences they subsequently have of various family-transformation events of their mothers. Our presentation reveals some similarities but also striking differences in the family-demographic experience of children in different countries. USA stands out as one extreme case with its very high fraction of children born to a lone mother, with a higher probability for children to experience a union disruption of their parents than anywhere else, and with many children having the experience of living in a stepfamily. Italy stands out at the other end of the scale. Practically all children are here born to a married mother and very few of them experience a dissolution of their parents’ union before they turn 15. (AUTHOR)
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Kögel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Youth dependency and total factor productivity
Abstract: Recent literature shows empirical support for an effect of demographic age structure on economic growth. This literature does not give attention to the possibility that age structure might also have an effect on total factor productivity. Much of the recent literature on economic growth has stressed that an understanding of cross-country differences in output per worker is needed. That literature argues that the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker is differences in total factor productivity. This paper finds empirical evidence in cross-country data for the thesis that the youth dependency ratio (the population below working age divided by the population of working age) reduces ´residual´ growth, which measures total factor productivity growth. For this reason, the paper demonstrates that age structure has an effect on the most important determinant of international differences in output per worker. 
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
Number: WP-2001-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: dependency ratio, developing countries, economic growth, young population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Boris Sobolev
Title: Small effects of selective migration and selective survival in retrospective studies of fertility
Abstract: In this paper, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that are based on the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain the information on childbearing of all people ever living in Sweden and thus allow us to avoid any problems of selectivity by virtue of survival or of out-migration when we estimate fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961-1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that were living in Sweden at the end of 1999 and (ii) rates that also include the information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the century. We find that the omission of information on emigrated and deceased individuals, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on our fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the actual fertility of that population.
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, bias, fertility measurements, retrospective analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José A. Ortega
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Towards a theory of lowest-low fertility
Abstract: Lowest-low fertility, defined as a period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. In this paper we argue that the emergence and persistence of this new phenomenon is due to the combination and interaction of four factors. First, tempo- and compositional distortions reduce the TFR below the associated level of cohort fertility, and these distortions can be quantified with appropriate adjusted measures. Second, late childbearing has become a rational response to increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood. Third, social interaction reinforces the behavioral adjustment of individuals, and it can lead to postponement transitions with large and persistent changes in the mean age at birth. Fourth, delayed childbearing is associated with postponement-quantum interactions that reduce completed fertility. We conclude the paper with some speculations about future trends in lowest-low fertility countries and candidates.
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annette Erlangsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The impact of children on divorce risks in first and later marriages
Abstract: In this study, we examine the effect of children on divorce risks in first and subsequent marriages in Sweden and compare risk patterns in the two types of marriages based on register data. We examine the impact of parity and the age of the youngest child while standardizing for age at marriage, premarital childbearing, calendar year, and marital duration. We apply our models to Swedish register data and also compute a number of interactions between marital order and our other demographic variables. We find independent effects of parity and the age of the youngest child on the disruption risk in both a first and a later marriage. In general, the patterns of divorce risks for women in later marriages are quite similar to the patterns in first marriages, but the effect of the number of children is weaker in subsequent marriages. Consistent with other studies, the level of disruption risk is higher in later marriages than in first marriages.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Kögel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?
Abstract: Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.  
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
Number: WP-2001-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: female employment, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José A. Ortega
Title: Tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios: Assessing the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain
Abstract: In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2001) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohort and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5--1.75.
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/6/7
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2001-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Pau Baizán Munoz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohabitation, marriage, first birth: the interrelationship of family formation events in Spain
Abstract: In this paper we investigate (1) the mutual causal relationship between first union formation and first childbirth, and (2) the existence of constant common determinants of these two events. It is argued that (unmeasured) common factors reflect differentials among the population in value orientations and in norms about the sequencing of events. We apply event history techniques to retrospective survey data for Spain, allowing for the correlation between unobserved heterogeneity components belonging to each process. Our findings confirm the strong interrelationship between union formation and first birth. After controlling for these common factors, we find that the risk of conception increases immediately at marriage, and it continues to be high during the following four years. Entry into cohabitation produces much smaller increases in the relative risk. The effect of the conception of the first child on union formation is especially strong during pregnancy, but declines sharply after delivery.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/wp-2001-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Pau Baizán Munoz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesca Michielin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Political economy and life course patterns: the heterogeneity of occupational, family and household trajectories of young spaniards
Abstract: We explore the strong linkages between macro changes and the dynamics of educational, occupational, family, and residential careers of young Spanish adults born between 1945 and 1974. We review theory and evidence on macro factors: changes in the welfare system, centrality of the family as a service provider, and the changing role of women. We outline some hypotheses of how life course trajectories, and their heterogeneity, change across cohorts. We build data on sequences of states using FFS. In our analysis, we find an increase in the discontinuity of careers and of the heterogeneity among cohort members, especially for employment. Women´s careers are becoming more similar to those of men. Family and household formation is postponed, with a limited spread of post-nuclear family forms.
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/WP-2001-037.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Stefano Mazzuco
Author-Name: Fausta Ongaro
Title: Leaving Home Ain't Easy. A comparative longitudinal analysis of ECHP data
Abstract: We use three waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) to analyse the impact of employment, earnings, household income, and welfare on young adults’ decision to leave the parental home. In particular we investigate the importance of these income sources in different welfare settings. We use a simultaneous equation approach to control for unobserved heterogeneity. This is important given that the ECHP does not include retrospective information on demographic events. We find employment and income to be very important factors in the decisions of young adults in the Southern European Welfare State to leave home. For the Continental European Welfare state the results are more mixed. Employment and income are still important factors, but the effects are less clear and there are significant variations. In the Scandinavian Social Democratic Welfare State, the effect of employment and income appears negligible. The effect is also modest in the UK (the Liberal Market State), a finding we attribute to the educational system.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/WP-2001-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Chris Wilson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe
Abstract: This paper addresses the transition to adulthood in developed countries. It reviews the main theories that have been employed in recent years to explain trends in such variables as age ages at leaving home, union formation, first marriage and first birth. The paper then examines the median ages at which women in nine European countries experienced these events and the inter-quartile range within each cohort. The results do not provide unequivocal support for any of the main theories. In conclusion we offer some speculative remarks on what form an alternative theory might take.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2001
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Working/WP-2001-039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2001-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: José A. Ortega
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods
Abstract: In a low fertility context demographic characteristics like the parity distribution of the population and the timing of births can lead to substantial changes in period fertility. In this article we review the literature on the analysis of fertility by parity and on tempo distortions. Both approaches can be combined through the use of the parity and age fertility model as recently proposed by Kohler and Ortega (2002a). We show applications of the approach for the analysis of both period and cohort fertility. For the analysis of period fertility a new measure is proposed, the Period Fertility Index, which is free from tempo distortions and from the influence of the population parity distribution. The Period Fertility Index is connected to the TFR by two ratios: the mean tempo effect, which generalizes previous work by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998), and the parity composition effect. Besides the period fertility index, all standard life table functions can be defined as synthetic cohort measures including mean ages at birth, interbirth intervals, parity progression rates or the stable parity distribution. From the perspective of cohort fertility it is possible to determine future childbearing intensities for conditional postponement scenarios. These can then be used for cohort completion or fertility forecasting. Examples of the different measures and techniques are given based on recent Swedish data.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annette Kohlmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility intentions in a cross-cultural view: the value of children reconsidered
Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the differences in fertility intentions between Turkey and Japan, based on a theoretical modification of the social-psychological concept of the ‘Value of Children’. We assume that the ‘Value of Children’ consists of their support for their parents in order to achieve general human goals. We investigate the causal structure between individual socio-economic characteristics and the ‘Value of Children’ and fertility intentions. We use data from the original “Value of Children Studies”, including women in their reproductive age, with children born in wedlock. Based on confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation models, we find that in both countries fertility intentions are related to the instrumentality of children to their parents as well as to socio-economic characteristics and institutionally defined opportunities. The ‘Value of Children’ is in part determined by socio-economic independent variables; however, we also observe direct effects that can not be reduced to the instrumentality of children. Therefore, the endogenization of the effects of the ‘Value of Children’ on fertility intentions is limited
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wienke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anne M. Herskind
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Author-Name: Axel Skytthe
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The influence of smoking and BMI on heritability in susceptibility to coronary heart disease
Abstract: Cause-specific mortality data on Danish monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins are used to analyze the influence of smoking and body mass index (BMI) on heritability estimates of susceptibility to coronary heart disease (CHD). The sample includes 1209 like-sexed twin pairs born between 1890 and 1920, where both individuals were still alive and answered a questionnaire, including information about smoking, height and weight, in 1966. The analysis was conducted with both sexes pooled due to the relatively small number of twin pairs. Follow-up was conducted from 1 January 1966 to 31 December 1993. We use the correlated gamma-frailty model with observed covariates for the genetic analysis of frailty to account for censoring and truncation in the lifetime data. During the follow-up, 1437 deaths occurred, including 435 deaths due to CHD. Proportions of variance of frailty attributable to genetic and environmental factors were analyzed using the structural equation model approach. Different standard biometric models are fitted to the data to evaluate the magnitude and nature of genetic and environmental factors on mortality. Using the best fitting model without covariates, heritability of frailty to CHD was found to be 0.45 (0.11). This result changes only slightly to 0.54 (0.16) after controlling for smoking and BMI. This analysis underlines the existence of a substantial genetic influence on individual frailty associated with mortality caused by CHD. No evidence for common genetic factors acting on smoking, BMI, and susceptibility to CHD are found which indicates that the association between smoking and susceptibility to CHD and BMI and susceptibility to CHD is not confounded by common genetic factors.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Isabella Buber
Title: The influence of the distribution of household and childrearing tasks between men and women on childbearing intentions in Austria
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to look at the extent to which the division of household work and childrearing and the perception of how fair these tasks are divided influence plans of further childbearing. We concentrate on women with one child and want to look at the question whether a woman whose partner shares the domestic responsibilities with her wishes to have a second child more often than a woman with a partner who does not help out. The data used in this study are drawn from the Austrian Fertility and Family Survey 1995/96, which includes biographies of partnerships and childbearing, detailed information on the division of household chores and childcare duties between the two sexes, and the desire for a (another) child. We model the desire for a second child using a probit model. The major findings of the paper are that sharing childcare duties among couples is a driving force behind plans of further childbearing, whereas the division of feminine household tasks between men and women has no explanatory power. Our results also illustrate that the satisfaction of a woman with her contribution to childrearing is a predictor of an increased desire for a second child.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lisbeth B. Knudsen
Author-Name: Axel Skytthe
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Title: The fertility pattern of twins and the general population compared: evidence from Danish cohorts 1945-64
Abstract: Twin studies provide an important possibility for demographers to analyze patterns of heritability and to estimate structural models with controls for endowments. These possibilities are increasingly used in the context of fertility and related behaviors. A close congruence between the fertility patterns of twins and that of the general population, however, is an essential pre-condition in order to generalize the results of twin-based investigations of fertility and related behaviors to the general population. In this paper we therefore compare the fertility of Danish twins born 1945-64 to the fertility pattern of the general population born during the same period. Our analyses find a very close correspondence between the fertility pattern of twins and of the general population. There exist only few statistically significant differences, and the primary difference pertains to the fact that female twins have a slightly later onset of childbearing than non-twins. There are virtually no relevant differences between the fertility patterns of dizygotic and monozygotic twins.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/6/14
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Riccardo Borgoni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ulf-Christian Ewert
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns? A multilevel approach to Austrian data
Abstract: Private car use is one of the major contributors to pollution in industrialised countries. It is therefore important to understand the factors that determine the demand for car use. In explaining the variability in car use, it is important to take into account household demographic characteristics and local and regional differences in infrastructure, in addition to the economic variables commonly used in the prevailing literature on the topic. The appropriate tool to explain car ownership and car use is, therefore, a multilevel statistical approach. An Austrian household survey from 1997 finds that household characteristics such as age, gender, education and employment of the household head, household size and housing quality can effect the variability of car ownership and car use. The same survey also gives a clear indication of regional heterogeneity. This heterogeneity persists when we controlled for the variability of regional economic welfare and infrastructure as indicated by population density.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Norman Braun
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Diffusion processes and event history analysis
Abstract: Several authors (e.g., Brüderl, Diekmann, Yamaguchi) derive hazard rate models of event history analysis from social diffusion processes. This paper also focuses on the integration of diffusion research and survival analysis. After a discussion of Diekmann's flexible diffusion model, we present an alternative approach which clarifies theoretical differences between popular rate models (e.g., the exponential model, log-logistic model, sickle model). Specifically, this approach provides a new rationale for the generalized log-logistic model in the sense of a flexible infection process. In cases with bell-shaped duration dependence, it thus allows a test for social contagion as a result of random contacts between actual and potential adopters. An application to divorce data serves as an illustration.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heike Trappe
Author-Name: Jaap Dronkers
Title: Differences in family policy and the intergenerational transmission of divorce: a comparison between the former East and West Germany
Abstract: The intergenerational transmission of the risk of divorce is a well-known long-term effect of divorce that has been found in many Western societies. Less known is the extent to which different family policies and divorce laws have an effect on the intergenerational transmission of divorce. In this paper, the division of Germany into two separate states from 1949 until 1990, with the consequent development of two very different family policies, is regarded as a natural experiment that enables us to investigate the effect of family policy on the mechanisms underlying the social inheritance of divorce. Data from respondents from the former East and West Germany participating in the German Life History Study are analyzed, using multivariate event-history methods. The results indicate that the strength of the intergenerational divorce transmission, when adjusted for differences in the divorce level, was lower in the East than in the West. Differences in marriage age and the timing of first birth, which are partial indicators of family policy, as well as differences in religion, could explain this effect. Furthermore, we found a tendency towards a reduction in the dynamics of divorce transmission over time, both in East and West Germany.
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Patricio Solis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Work lives amid social change and continuity: occupational trajectories in Monterrey, Mexico
Abstract: In this paper we use sequence analysis to study the occupational trajectories between the ages 14 and 30 for men in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We build typologies of trajectories based on life-history data and then explore changes in the frequency of these ´typical´ trajectories over time as well as differences across socioeconomic groups. Cohort trends reveal more continuities than changes in occupational trajectories, despite the structural changes experienced by the city in the last two decades. Career patterns are closely related to family origins and educational attainment, thus suggesting the continuing importance of both ascribed and attained characteristics on occupational outcomes.
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Iliana Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jordan Kaltchev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mariana Dimova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Integrated information system for demographic statistics ´ESGRAON-TDS´ in Bulgaria
Abstract: In this paper we describe the Bulgarian statistical system that provides unique research possibilities for demographic analyses. In particular, we review the methodology, structure and informational flows for population registration and the registration of vital events in Bulgaria. In addition, we describe the main elements of the most recent Bulgarian census from March 1, 2001. In the last part of the paper, we pay special attention to data protection and data confidentiality issues in Bulgaria.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelika Tölke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Diewald
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Berufsbiographische Unsicherheiten und der Übergang zur Elternschaft bei Männern
Abstract: In this paper we look at the impact of employment on family development with reference to men. We investigate the extent to which insecurities in the employment career have an effect on family formation. By comparing the life histories and life situation of men in East and West Germany, we are able to retrieve information about the effects of different social systems on the transition to fatherhood. We use logistic regression models to analyze data of the ´Familiensurvey´ of the German Youth Institute conducted in the year 2000.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, employment, men
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Guiping Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Divorce risks of Swedish women in first marriages: two cohorts born in 1950 and 1960
Abstract: In this paper, we study first-marriage divorce risks in two cohorts of Swedish women, namely, those born in 1950 and 1960. We develop a hazard model with a piecewise-linear baseline log-hazard. First, we run the model without unobserved heterogeneity and second, we run the model with such a term. We have found a divorce pattern for Swedish women similar to what other researchers have found. Facilitated by having both cohort data and efficient software (aML), we were able to get a clear picture of the timing pattern of first marital dissolution risks. Our 1950 cohort model without unobserved heterogeneity does not produce any biased results; our 1960 cohort model with no unobserved heterogeneity overestimates the baseline hazard and evidently underestimates some of the coefficients.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, cohorts, divorce
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wienke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Author-Name: Axel Skytthe
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Genetic analysis of cause of death in a bivariate lifetime model with dependent competing risks
Abstract: A mixture model in multivariate survival analysis is presented, whereby heterogeneity among subjects creates divergent paths for the individual's risk of experiencing an event (i.e., disease), as well as for the associated length of survival. Dependence among competing risks is included and rendered testable. This method is an extension of the bivariate correlated gamma-frailty model. It is applied to a data set on Danish twins, for whom cause-specific mortality is known. The use of multivariate data solves the identifiability problem which is inherent in the competing risk model of univariate lifetimes. We analyse the in uence of genetic and environmental factors on frailty. Using a sample of 1470 monozygotic (MZ) and 2730 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs, we apply five genetic models to the associated mortality data, focusing particularly on death from coronary heart disease (CHD). Using the best fitting model, the inheritance risk of death from CHD was 0.39 (standard error 0.13). The results from this model are compared with the results from earlier analysis that used the restricted model, where the independence of competing risks was assumed. Comparing both cases, it turns out, that heritability of frailty on mortality due to CHD change substantially. Despite the inclusion of dependence, analysis confirms the significant genetic component to an individual's risk of mortality from CHD. Whether dependence or independence is assumed, the best model for analysis with regard to CHD mortality risks is an AE model, implying that additive factors are responsible for heritability in susceptibility to CHD. The paper ends with a discussion of limitations and possible further extensions to the model presented.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Olaf Reis
Title: Bearing children in unstable times: psychological traits and early parenthood in a lowest-low fertility context, Rostock 1990 - 1995
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze a unique longitudinal data set from Rostock in Eastern Germany. Data collection began in the communist era and has been followed up until today. Employing proportional-hazard models, we use psychological individual-level measures (such as personality traits, social and cognitive resources, coping styles, etc.) at age 20 as determinants of the subjects´ subsequent transition rate to parenthood. We find strong evidence to support the notion that psychological factors function as proximate determinants of differential fertility. We conclude that psychological individual-level data are important in understanding patterns, especially during times when society faces massive and incalculable upheavals.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hilke Brockmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Thomas Klein
Title: Love and death in Germany: the marital biography and its impact on mortality
Abstract: Most studies dealing with the impact of marriage on mortality treat being married as a once-and-for-all status. However, multiple life changes in marital status characterize the modern life course. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the timing of these changes affect mortality in Germany. Longitudinal data show that the positive effects of getting married accumulate over long periods of time, while the negative effect of divorce and widowhood attenuates after some time. We also find that the effect of any marital status wears out with an individual’s age and differs between cohorts, which is partly due to selectivity. Both temporal mechanism and selection processes demonstrate the plasticity of the marital biography and its variable effect on mortality.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Guiping Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How premarital children and childbearing in the current marriage influence family stability
Abstract: By using a Swedish register data set and applying hazard models with unobserved heterogeneity, this study demonstrates that childbearing history plays an important role in predicting the divorce risks of families with various types of premarital children. Families with premarital children definitely have a higher risk of divorce than do those without premarital children. Producing a common child cements bonds in the family but as the youngest common child grows up, his or her role of maintaining family relations weakens. Families with premarital children from the wife´s relation with another man clearly have a higher risk of divorce than do families with other types of premarital children. Additional findings deviate from what has been reported in the literature.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, childbearing, divorce, premarital births
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gender preferences for children revisited: new evidence from Germany
Abstract: Empirical research investigating gender preferences for children and their implications for fertility decisions in advanced industrial societies is relatively scarce. Recent studies on this matter have presented ambiguous evidence regarding the existence as well as the direction such preferences can take. We use data from the most recent German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) to analyse determinants of the preferred sex composition of prospective offspring as well as the influence of the sex of previous children on the respondent´s fertility intentions and their actual behaviour at different parities. We find that the socio-demographic determinants of gender preferences differ when childless respondents are compared with parents, and that boys are preferred as a first child. Although an ultimate sex composition that includes at least one son and one daughter is generally favoured, there is no evidence for a behaviourally relevant gender preference in Germany, when higher parities are considered.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility, sex preference
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Johannes Fürnkranz
Title: The cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms
Abstract: We present an agent-based model designed to study the cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms. We review theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the existence of norms proscribing marriage outside of an acceptable age interval. Using a definition of norms as constraints built in agents, we model the transmission of norms, and of mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of norms. Agents can marry each other only if they share part of the acceptable age interval. We perform several simulation experiments on the evolution across generations. In particular, we study the conditions under which norms persist in the long run, the impact of initial conditions, the role of random mutations, and the impact of social influence. Although the agent-based model we use is highly stylized, it gives important insights on the societal-level dynamics of life-course norms.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Differences in lifespan by month of birth for the United States: the impact of early life events and conditions on late life mortality
Abstract: We find significant differences in the mean age at death by month of birth on the basis of 15 million US death certificates for the years 1989 to 1997: Those born in fall live about 0.44 of a year longer than those born in spring. The difference depends on race, region of birth, marital status, and education: The differences are largest for the less educated, for those who have never been married and for blacks, and the differences  are more marked in the South than in the North. They are only slightly larger for males than for females. For blacks, the shape of the month-of-birth pattern is significantly different from that of whites. We present evidence that this difference is due to whether one has an urban or a rural place of birth. We find a significant month-of-birth pattern for all major causes of death including cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, in particular lung cancer, and other natural diseases like chronic obstructive lung disease, or infectious disease. We reject the hypotheses that the differences in life span by month of birth are caused by seasonal differences in daylight or by seasonal differences in temperature. Our results are consistent with the explanation that seasonal differences in nutrition of the mother during pregnancy and seasonal differences in the exposure to infectious disease early in life lead to the differences in lifespan by month of birth.
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Eine Mehrebenenanalyse regionaler Einflüsse auf die Familiengründung westdeutscher Frauen in den Jahren 1984 bis 1999
Abstract: Der Artikel untersucht die Bedeutung regionaler Einflussfaktoren auf der Kreisebene für den Prozess der Familiengründung westdeutscher Frauen in den 1980er und 1990er Jahren. Als theoretischer Rahmen wird ein Mehrebenenmodell soziologischer Erklärung vorgeschlagen. Die empirische Analyse des Übergangs zur ersten Ehe sowie der Geburt des ersten und zweiten Kindes erfolgt auf der Grundlage von Mikrodaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) und unter Verwendung eines Methoden-Mixes aus ereignisanalytischen und mehrebenenanalytischen Verfahren. Die beiden wichtigsten Befunde sind erstens, dass regionale Unterschiede im Geburtenverhalten weitestgehend durch Kontrolle individueller Merkmale – vor allem Familienstand und Alter – erklärt werden können, und zweitens, dass es eine signifikante regionale Varianz im Heiratsverhalten gibt, die weder auf Kompositionseffekte noch auf strukturelle Kontexteffekte zurückzuführen ist. Regionale Einflüsse auf Fertilitätsentscheidungen westdeutscher Frauen haben demnach keine eigenständige Qualität, sondern werden über einen latenten Kontexteffekt raumgebundener sozio-kultureller Milieus auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Eheschließung lediglich indirekt vermittelt.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), Germany/FRG
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Simon Burgess
Author-Name: Carol Propper
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Beise
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Eckart Voland
Title: A multilevel event history analysis of the effects of grandmothers on child mortality in a historical German population (Krummhörn, Ostfriesland, 1720-1874)
Abstract: We analyzed data from the historic population of the Krummhörn (Ostfriesland, Germany, 1720-1874) to determine the effects of grandparents in general and grandmothers in particular on child mortality. Multilevel event-history models were used to test how the survival of grandparents in general influenced the survival of the children. Random effects were included in some models in order to take the potentially influential effect of unobserved heterogeneity into account. It could be shown that while maternal grandmothers indeed improved the child’s survival, paternal grandmothers worsened it. Both grandfathers had no effect. These findings are not only in accordance with the assumptions of the “grandmother hypothesis” but also may be interpreted as hints for differential grandparental investment strategies.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Marie Le Goff
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohabiting unions in France and West Germany: transitions to first birth and first marriage
Abstract: This paper compares the non-marital birth pattern in France and West Germany. Since the beginning of the eighties, France witnessed a steady increase in non-marital birth rates, while in West Germany non-marital birth rates have remained at a relatively low level. We attribute these differences to the institutional and legal constraints from both sides of the Rhine which hamper or foster childbearing in cohabiting unions. In West Germany, family policies are based on the model of the conjugal family and the male breadwinner model. Until recently, it was not possible for an unmarried father to recognize his child and to obtain parental authority. In France, family policies have responded to the “pluralization” of family lives and it is possible for an unmarried father to recognize his child and obtain parental authority. Using data from the French and German Family and Fertility Survey, we apply event history modeling to the transition to marriage and first birth. Our results indicate a polarization of family forms in both countries. In West Germany, we find a polarization in a “family sector” and a “non-family sector” while in France there is a polarization in a “marriage sector” and a “cohabiting sector”.
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: France, Germany (Alte Bundesländer), Germany/FRG
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Pau Baizán
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Institutional arrangements and life course outcomes: the interrelations between cohabitation, marriage and first birth in Germany and Sweden
Abstract: We study the link between institutional arrangements and fertility, focusing on how institutions affect the nexus between partnership formation and fertility. We apply simultaneous hazard models to family and fertility survey data for Germany and Sweden. Our results show a significant presence of correlated unobserved factors that affect both partnership formation and the transition to parenthood. We argue that these factors reflect the heterogeneous composition of each population with respect to values and norms. Net of that correlation, the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation.
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Sweden, cohabitation, fertility, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The differential influence of women´s residential district on the risk of entering first marriage and motherhood in Western Germany
Abstract: This article investigates the role of women´s residential district in the process of family formation in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s. Our analysis of the transition to first marriage and motherhood is based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), which we merge with a rich set of district-level data. The estimated multilevel discrete-time logit models suggest that (1) basically all regional heterogeneity in women´s entry into parenthood is due to differences in the respondents´ marital status, while there is (2) a constant and significant regional variation in women´s first marriage probabilities, which cannot be explained by population composition or structural contextual effects. Thus, regional influences on fertility behavior do not have an autonomous quality, but are merely mediated through a latent contextual effect on women´s risk of entering first marriage, which we attribute to regional socio-cultural milieus.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany/FRG, family formation, geography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Urs Fuhrer
Title: Where qualitative research meets demography: interdisciplinary explorations of conceptions on fatherhood in an extremely low fertility context
Abstract: Recent demands to include psychological theories of decision-making and intention-formation in research on family formation coincide with calls for improving research on male fertility and fatherhood. In this paper, we address these notions and present findings from in-depth interviews with 30-year-old childless men from Eastern Germany on their desire for children. Our research is embedded in the societal situation of contemporary Eastern Germany, where birth rates have faced a historical low - the lowest in more than 10 years. We analyze fourteen interviews, using an analytical paradigm, which we derive from the contemporary social cognitive theory of intention-formation. The focus lies on the examination of male attitudes, values, motives, interests, goals, action beliefs, and self-concepts, and their connection to men´s intentions for parenthood.In conclusion, we compare our results with explanations that the Theory of Symbolic Self-Completion and the Theory of Reasoned Action give. We argue for the need to bring together psychological and sociological theorizing in this field.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility decline, men, social psychology
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Determinants of individual AIDS risk perception: knowledge, behavioural control, and social influence
Abstract: In sub-Saharan Africa an almost universal awareness of AIDS lethality and of HIV sexual transmission mechanism coexists together with a reluctance in adopting consequent preventive measures as protected sexual intercourse. The socio-psychological literature on health-related behaviour emphasises the perception of being at risk of HIV/AIDS infection as being one of the necessary conditions for preventive behaviour to be adopted. Analysing data from the Kenya Diffusion and Ideational Change (KDIC) Project, this paper investigates the determinants of the reported degree of risk perception of getting infected by HIV/AIDS. In particular, adopting a social interaction approach, we argue that individual risk perception is shaped by social network influences. We use information about conversation related to AIDS and HIV infection risk occurring among individuals and their social network members. We are able to show to what extent neglecting individuals´ reciprocal influences into explanatory models leads to a mis-estimation of the weight of other factors, as AIDS related knowledge and behavioural factors. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Kenya, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annette Erlangsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Unni Bille-Brahe
Author-Name: Bernard Jeune
Title: Differences in suicide between the old and the oldest old
Abstract: Objectives. The purpose of our study was to examine the differences in trends of suicide mortality between the old aged 65-79 years and the oldest old aged 80 years or above. Methods. All persons aged 50 or above who committed suicide in Denmark during 1972-1997 were included. Suicide rates were analysed by sex, age, civil status and methods. A Lexis diagram was applied to study age, period, and cohort effects. Results. In all, 17,328 (10,220 men and 7,108 women) committed suicide. The highest suicide rate was found among the oldest old men, and since the mid-1990’s, also for women. Marriage has a preventive effect on suicide, however this effect decreases with increasing age. With increasing age, more determined suicide methods are used. Discussion. A distinct difference in the suicide mortality of the old and the oldest old was found. Suicides among the old have more in common with the suicide patterns of the middle-aged than with the oldest old. Oldest old committing suicide, have a high suicide intent.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://academic.oup.com/psychsocgerontology/article/58/5/S314/611362
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2002-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: aged, old age, suicide
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Margit Strandberg
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Patterns of twinning for Swedish women, 1961-1999
Abstract: The Nordic population registers provide a unique possibility to study the demographic behavior of small population groups and rare events. In this paper, we study the childbearing behavior of Swedish mothers of twins between 1961 and 1999, inclusive. The twinning rate has increased since the mid-1970s in response to a growing use of fertility-stimulating treatments such as in-vitro fertilization. Such medical procedures are applied mainly to women beyond prime childbearing ages. Nevertheless, we find no simple age pattern in twinning rates. They do not just increase with the woman´s age. Our most consistent finding is that mothers of twins wait noticeably longer than women with singletons before they have another child. This apart, mothers with twins at their first birth have next-birth fertility patterns very similar to women who have two singletons at their first two births. This commonality in childbearing behavior does not extend to higher-order births, though. For mothers with a singleton and a pair of twins, the progression to a third birth depends very much on whether the twins came first or second. We also discover that at parities beyond 3, twinning rates increase with parity, especially at very short durations since the previous birth.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: vital events
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Crisis or adaptation reconsidered: a comparison of East and West German fertility patterns in the first six years after the ´Wende´
Abstract: Similar to other Eastern European countries, East Germany experienced a rapid decline in period fertility rates after the fall of communism. This decline has been discussed along the lines of a ´crisis´ and a ´adaptation´ to western demographic patterns.  The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors which foster and hamper a convergence of fertility behavior in East and West Germany.  Secondly, we use data from the German micro-census to analyze the fertility patterns of the cohorts born 1961-1970.  Major results from our empirical analysis are that East Germans who are still childless at unification are more rapid to have their first child in the subsequent years than comparable West Germans.  However, regarding second parity births, the pattern reverses.  Here, East Germans display a lower transition rate than their counterparts in the West.  
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Eric Stallard
Author-Name: Zhenglian Wang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Estimating age-status-specific demographic rates that are consistent with the projected summary measures in family households projection
Abstract: This paper proposes procedures for estimating age-status-specific demographic rates to ensure that the projected summary measures of marriage/union formation and dissolution and marital and non-marital fertility in the future years are achieved consistently. The procedures proposed in this paper can be applied in both macro and micro models for family household or actuarial/welfare projections and simulations that need the time-varying age-status-specific demographic rates as input.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: family demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jiang Leiwen
Author-Name: Brian C. O´Neill
Title: Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria
Abstract: Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Though non-economic factors have received less attention, recent research has found that demographic factors are important. While some studies have applied a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand, projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables such as numbers of people and/or households. In this paper, we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections of car use are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. For example, the highest projected car use - an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. (Keywords: household projections, car use demand, demographic composition)
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexander Z. Begun
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rates
Abstract: A general algorithm for the decomposition of differences between two values of an aggregate demographic measure in respect to age and other dimensions is proposed. It assumes that the aggregate measure is computed from similar matrices of discrete demographic data for two populations under comparison. The algorithm estimates the effects of replacement for each elementary cell of one matrix by respective cell of another matrix. Application of the algorithm easily leads to the known formula for the age-decomposition of differences between two life expectancies. It also allows to develop new formulae for differences between Gini coefficients (measures of inter-individual variability in age at death) and differences between health expectancies. In the latter case, each age-component is split further into effects of mortality and effects of health. The application of the algorithm enables a numerical decomposition of the differences between total fertility rates and between parity progression ratios by age of the mother and parity. Empirical examples are based on mortality data from the USA, the UK, West Germany, and Poland and on fertility data from Russia.
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sumon K. Bhaumik
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jeffrey B. Nugent
Title: Does economic uncertainty have an impact on decisions to bear children? Evidence from Eastern Germany
Abstract: Economic agents routinely face various types of economic uncertainty. Seldom have these various forms of uncertainty manifested themselves more sharply than in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. In East Germany, the transition was especially rapid and sharp since East Germany virtually over night made the transition from the Eastern European system to the market economy of Western Germany. Uncertainties increased and many institutional and behavioral adjustments took place in a concentrated period of time. Among the latter was a sharp fall in fertility rates, leading to a growing literature on the explanation for this decline. This paper focuses directly on the link between uncertainty and childbearing decisions and examines the link at the micro level. It develops a stylized overlapping generations model showing that the relationship between economic uncertainty and childbearing decisions is not necessarily monotonic, and hence that the aforementioned inverse relationship is merely a testable hypothesis. It then uses GSOEP data for 1992 and 1996 to estimate the nature of this relationship, and concludes that while this relationship was indeed negative for East German women during these two years, the nature of uncertainty affecting their childbearing decisions differed across the years.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-037.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Patricio Solis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Structural change and occupational attainment in Monterrey, Mexico
Abstract: Latin American societies have experienced profound economic transformations in recent years. Yet, little is known about the effects of these transformations on occupational attainment and mobility. We study these effects in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We analyze two stages of men’s process of occupational attainment: the entry into the labor force and subsequent job shifts. Despite short-term negative effects in the 1980s, Monterrey’s labor market upgrading has continued, facilitating upward mobility. However, class of origin remains an important determinant of attainment, labor-market segmentation imposes barriers to mobility, and wages in non-manual occupations have decreased, thus imposing particular characteristics to occupational attainment.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brantley Liddle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demographic dynamics and sustainability: insights from an integrated, multi-country simulation model
Abstract: We develop a simulation model to assess sustainable development on three levels: economic (by determining production, consumption, investment, direct foreign investment, technology transfer, and international trade), social (by calculating population change, migration flows, and welfare), and environmental (by computing the difference between pollution and remediation). The model follows “representative” countries that differ in their initial endowments (i.e., natural resource endowment, physical and human capital, technology, and population), and thus in their development levels and prospects. In a world with movement of goods, people, and capital, free substitution in production, flexible economic structures, and the ability to upgrade input factors via investment, we find that, rather than the physical capacity of the earth being responsible for unsustainable paths, the initial disparities in circumstances among countries and the complex of internal and international human interrelationships can lead to a “social non sustainability” or continued divergence of outcomes. In our model history matters (the exogenous history implied by different starting conditions as well as the endogenous history that evolves over the simulations) in the ultimate prospects of countries and how they respond to institutions (e.g., free trade). Many of the most important country-specific starting points relate to population: human capital and population size, structure, and rates of change.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: simulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Patterns of lowest-low fertility in Europe
Abstract: In this paper we conduct descriptive aggregate analyses to revisit the relation between low and lowest-low period fertility on the one, and cohort fertility and key fertility-related behaviors---such as leaving the parental home, marriage and female labor force participation---on the other side. First, we identify a systematic pattern of lowest-low fertility that is characterized by a rapid delay of childbearing, a low progression probability after the first child (but not particularly low levels of first-birth childbearing), and a ``falling behind´´ in cohort fertility at relatively late ages. Second, our analyses show that the cross-country correlations in Europe between the total fertility level on the one side, and the total first marriage rate, the proportion of extramarital births and the female labor force participation rate on the other side have reversed during the period from 1975 to 1999. At the end of the 1990s there is also no longer evidence that divorce levels are negatively associated with fertility levels. Based on these analyses we conclude that the emergence of lowest-low fertility during the 1990s has been accompanied by a disruption or even a reversal of many well-known patterns that have been used to explain cross-country differences in fertility patterns.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-040.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-040
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family formation, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-040
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-040

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Petra L. Klumb
Author-Name: Heiner Maier
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Daily activities and survival at older ages
Abstract: This study tested the hypothesis that time spent on regenerative (e.g., resting), productive (e.g., housework), and consumptive activities (e.g., meeting friends) is associated with survival in persons aged 70 and older. An observational study with semi-annual mortality follow-ups was carried out in the former West Berlin, Germany. The sample was stratified by age and sex and consisted of 473 persons aged 70 to 103 years. Study participants lived in the community as well as in institutions. Activity measures were assessed in 1990-1993 by structured interviews in the participants´ homes. Cox regression was used to model survival from time of interview. The main outcome measure was survival on 3 February 2000. Consumptive activities were related to survival (relative risk = 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 1.00) after several confounding factors were controlled for. There were indications that the greatest survival benefit is achieved with a medium amount of time devoted to consumptive activities. Our results support the idea that daily activities are linked to survival via a psychosocial pathway, which might involve perceived quality of life. Consumptive activities (e.g., meeting friends, reading a novel) may contribute considerably to maintaining health and achieving longevity, because they are performed on a daily basis and their effects may accumulate over the life course.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-041.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas Romo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Decomposing change in life expectancy: a bouquet of formulas in honour of Nathan Keyfitz´s 90th birthday
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-042.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-042
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Japan, Sweden, causes of death, life expectancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-042
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-042

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Post-Darwinian longevity
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-043.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-043
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-043
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-043

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Diekmann
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Alter der Kinder bei Ehescheidung der Eltern und soziale Vererbung des Scheidungsrisikos
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-044.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-044
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-044
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-044

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gustav Feichtinger
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Veliov
Title: Age-structured optimal control in population economics
Abstract: This paper brings both intertemporal and age-dependent features to a theory of population policy at the macro-level. A Lotkatype renewal model of population dynamics is combined with a Solow/Ramsey economy. By using a new maximum principle for distributed parameter control we derive meaningful qualitative results for the optimal migration path and the optimal saving rate.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-045.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-045
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-045
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-045

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: results from the FFS
Abstract: Increasing proportions of couples are making childbearing decisions in stepfamilies but there has been no general comparative picture across European countries on stepfamily formation. The present paper aims to fill this gap and provides a comparison of European countries using macro-level indicators that describe union formation and dissolution and childbearing. We use the individual-level data files (standard recode files) of Fertility and Family Surveys from 19 European countries. Our results highlight the different pathways to a stepfamily in Europe, and show that in most European countries a considerable proportion of women form a stepfamily in childbearing ages, which needs to be considered in studies of fertility.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-046.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-046
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-046
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-046

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Marital disruption in the Czech Republic: the role of personal characteristics, individuality, and premarital cohabitation
Abstract: In this paper, we apply event history analysis to examine the possible determinants of marital disruption in the Czech Republic. We use the method of hazard regression with the baseline captured by multiple duration clocks; the event under observation is the first marital union disruption. We use the Fertility and Family Survey data from 1997, which covers the period between the 1970s and the 1990s. We focus on personal characteristics, the attributes of individuality and on conditions of partnership formation. We are particularly interested in characteristics covering the development of respondent’s individuality in early life stages, like being an only child, experiencing the parents’ divorce, living alone after leaving parental home and cohabiting before marriage. We control among others for the effect of educational enrolment and attainment and for the effect of children on marital stability. Through introducing unobserved heterogeneity into model, we also control for unobserved personal characteristics and examine the role of selection in the marital dissolution process. Some of our results are similar to the results found among Western societies: Parental divorce and premarital cohabitation, as well as young age at marriage and childlessness are shifting the probability of marital breakdown towards upper levels. Moreover, we show that having no siblings and living independently in early adulthood contribute to higher marital disruption proneness of individuals. 
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-047.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-047
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-047
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-047

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Riccardo Borgoni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Bayesian spatial analysis of demographic survey data: an application to contraceptive use at first sexual intercourse
Abstract: In this paper we analyze the spatial patterns of the risk of unprotected sexual intercourse for Italian women during their initial experience with sexual intercourse. We rely on geo-referenced survey data from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey, and we use a Bayesian approach relying on weakly informative prior distributions. Our analyses are based on a logistic regression model with a multilevel structure. The spatial pattern uses an intrinsic Gaussian conditional autoregressive (CAR) error component. The complexity of such a model is best handled within a Bayesian framework, and statistical inference is carried out using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. In contrast with previous analyses based on multilevel model, our approach avoids the restrictive assumption of independence between area effects. This model allows us to borrow strength from neighbors in order to obtain estimates for areas that may, on their own, have inadequate sample sizes. We show that substantial geographical variation exists within Italy (Southern Italy has higher risks of unprotected first-time sexual intercourse), and that the spatial pattern is stable across birth cohorts. The findings are robust with respect to the specification of the prior distribution. We argue that spatial analysis can give useful insights on unmet reproductive health needs. (KEYWORDS: spatial statistical demography, contraceptive use, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, Monte Carlo Markov Chain, multilevel statistical models, Italy, FFS)
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-048.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-048
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, contraceptive usage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-048
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-048

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Parental gender indifference or persistent sex preferences for children at the turn to the 21st century? A reflection on Pollard and Morgan (2002) with reference to the Swedish case
Abstract: In their recent ASR article on the sex composition of previous offspring and third births in the US, Pollard and Morgan (2002) argue that changes in the societal gender system - namely increasing opportunities for women - have lead to a decreasing effect of children´s gender on parents´ fertility decisions. If the authors were right in their conclusions, one should expect to find no sex preferences for children in countries with a high level of gender equality. In this reflection, we exploit population register data for the years 1961 to 1999 to examine the Swedish example. Our results show that even in the fairly gender equal Swedish society, a clear preference for one child of each sex has continued to exist until today.
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-049.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-049
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-049
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-049

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesca Michielin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lowest low fertility in an urban context: when migration plays a key role
Abstract: In countries with so-called "lowest-low" fertility, the lowest fertility levels are seen in the cities. The main reasons for this development is the difference in the cost of living expenses, combined with income constraints in cities, as compared to these same aspects in rural areas. If we focus our attention on the center of an urban area, migration needs to be taken into account, since it can contribute to particularly low yield fertility. In this paper we use the Turin Longitudinal Study, which has data on all people who have ever been residents in Turin (Italy) during the period 1971-2001. We study the interdependencies between fertility and out-migration choices for a selected group, from the 1956 birth-cohort. In order to fully understand fertility, we need to consider how fertility acts on out-migration choices. Our findings underline the important role of economic resources and life cycle events in such a context which seem to guide both fertility and migration behaviors. Moreover, while having a child significantly hampers long-distance migration, it also has a lower impact on short-distant moves.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-050.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-050
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-050
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-050

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Helmenstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yuri Yegorov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Wealth and cohort size: stock market boom or bust ahead?
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-051.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-051
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-051
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-051

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henriette Engelhardt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2002
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-052.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2002-052
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-052
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-052

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elizabeth Thomson
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childrearing responsibility and stepfamily fertility in Finland and Austria
Abstract: We investigate the hypothesis that the propensity of a stepfamily couple to have a shared child is inversely related to the responsibility for rearing pre-union children. We compare effects of coresident pre-union children to those of nonresident, and effects of the woman’s children to those of the man’s. Shared children and stepchildren reduce the risk of a birth to a couple, and the reduction is larger for each shared child than for a stepchild. We found larger effects of coresident pre-union children than of nonresident children, and larger effects of a woman’s pre-union children than of a man’s. The differences were more pronounced in Austria where public support for childrearing and gender equality is lower than in Finland. Our study demonstrates that in addition to the number of pre-union children, coresidence and parentage of pre-union children also need to be considered in future fertility research.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, Finland, child rearing, family composition, fertility determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: C. Katharina Spieß
Title: Kinderbetreuung und Fertilität in Deutschland
Abstract: Eine zentrale Rolle in der aktuellen Diskussion um eine bessere Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf spielt die Versorgung mit bedarfsgerechter Kinderbetreuung. Eine umfassendes Angebot an Betreuungsplätzen fördert jedoch nicht nur die Müttererwerbstätigkeit, sondern könnte sich auch positiv auf Fertilitätsentscheidungen auswirken. Im vorliegenden Beitrag untersuchen wir auf Basis von Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) und der amtlichen Kinder- und Jugendhilfestatistik den Einfluß der regionalen Verfügbarkeit von Kinderbetreuung auf das Geburtenverhalten west- und ostdeutscher Frauen in den Jahren 1996 bis 2000. Zentrales Ergebnis unserer Analyse ist, dass in den östlichen Bundesländern die Verfügbarkeit institutioneller Kinderbetreuung den Übergang zum ersten Kind positiv beeinflußt, während sich in den westlichen Bundesländern allein die Verfügbarkeit informeller Betreuungsarrangements als statistisch signifikant erweist. Verantwortlich hierfür dürfte in erster Linie die unterschiedliche Ausgestaltung der Betreuungsinfrastruktur in Ost und West sein, was sich insbesondere bei der Versorgung im Krippen- und Hortbereich sowie bei der Verfügbarkeit von Ganztagsplätzen zeigt.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Räumlicher Kontext und das Heiratsverhalten westdeutscher Männer in den 1980er und 1990er Jahren
Abstract: In diesem Beitrag wird der Zusammenhang zwischen Merkmalen des räumlichen Kontexts und dem Übergang zur ersten Ehe bei westdeutschen Männern in den 1980er und 1990er Jahren untersucht. Hierzu werden im empirischen Teil unter Verwendung von Individualdaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) und Informationen über Stadt- und Landkreise zeitdiskrete logistische Mehrebenenmodelle geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse der multivariaten Analyse bestätigen die herausragenden Bedeutung der wirtschaftlichen Stellung eines Mannes für seine Heiratsentscheidung. Darüber hinaus wird ein negativer Zusammenhang zwischen der aggregierten Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen auf dem regionalen Arbeitsmarkt und der Übergangswahrscheinlichkeit zur ersten Ehe bei Männern festgestellt. Dies könnte als Beleg für die in der Heiratsforschung verbreitete ‘wirtschaftliche Unabhängigkeits-hypothese’ verstanden werden. Komplementär hierzu wird eine Interpretation der Frauenerwerbsquote als Indikator für regional unterschiedliche Ausprägungen von Geschlechterrollen und individueller Autonomie vorgeschlagen. Berücksichtigt man zusätzlich den in den hier geschätzten Modellen statistisch signifikanten latenten Kontexteffekt, ergeben sich deutliche Indizien dafür, dass die Heiratsneigung eines Mannes durch regionale sozio-kulturelle Milieus beeinflußt wird.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Dissolution of unions in Europe: a comparative overview
Abstract: In this paper, we present a number of descriptive measures of couples’ experience of union dissolution in a wide range of European countries. We use data from the last round of Fertility and Family Surveys in order to get a broad cross-country comparison of levels and basic patterns of union disruption in countries considered. We use corresponding data from the USA in order to find out to what extent patterns in Europe differ from those at the other side of the Atlantic. With a number of life-table estimations we display levels of union dissolution of couples in different types of unions. Evidently, the picture looks different if one follows marriages from the date of marriage formation than if one follows any union from the date when a couple moves together. In addition, the stability of unions that start as cohabitation differs from the stability of unions that begin with a direct marriage. Our presentation reveals that unions in any European country are much more stable than unions in the US. The latter country stands out as an extreme case no matter what type of union we choose to study. Nevertheless, a high degree of variation also exists within Europe; a number of Catholic countries in Southern and Eastern Europe impress with particularly low levels of union dissolution.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family dynamics
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brantley Liddle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The challenge of sustainability in a global system: documentation of a transdisciplinary, multi-country, dynamic simulation model
Abstract: Sustainability models should consider aspects of the economy-environment-population nexus, be dynamic, and acknowledge the disparity among actors/countries. Lastly, sustainability models should not be programmed either to reject sustainability (e.g., an essential, nonrenewable input) or to affirm it (e.g., costless, endogenous technical change).     We develop a simulation model to assess sustainable development on three levels: economic (by determining production, consumption, investment, direct foreign investment, technology transfer, and international trade), social (by calculating population change, migration flows, and welfare), and environmental (by calculating the difference between environmental pollution and upgrading expenditures). The model follows “representative” countries that differ in their initial endowments (i.e., natural resource endowment, physical and human capital, technology, and population), and thus in their development levels and prospects. In addition, we model free substitution in production, flexible economic structures, the ability to upgrade input factors via investment, and optimizing agents who possess a high degree of mobility and information, and who interact through and in response to market equlibiria. 
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: economic development, environment, population dynamics, simulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Bender
Author-Name: Annette Kohlmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Stefan Lang
Title: Women, work, and motherhood: changing employment penalties for motherhood in West Germany after 1945 - a comparative analysis of cohorts born in 1934-1971
Abstract: This paper deals with the effects of entry into motherhood on women’s employment dynamics. Our analysis is based on the complete lifetime working- and income histories of a 1% sample of all persons born between 1934 and 1971 and employed in West Germany sometime between 1975 and 1995. We use the records of women who were employed before the birth of their first child. We apply a semi-parametric hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach simultaneously including several time scales and further covariates whose effects we estimate by MCMC techniques. We investigate short-term consequences of entry into motherhood and their changes over different birth cohorts and thereby take into account the employment histories before the birth of the first child. We conduct two models differentiating between the simple return to the labor market and the return for at least a certain period in order to measure subsequent employment stability. Our results indicate that a higher extent of employment experience, a stronger attachment to the labor market and an employment in white collar jobs reduces the employment penalty for mothers after the birth of their first child.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brantley Liddle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Developing country growth collapse revisited: demographic influences and regional differences
Abstract: This paper bridges two related, but up to now, unconnected literatures: economic growth stability and population-economic growth. The paper is different from previous population-economic growth analyses by focusing on instability of economic growth in developing countries. This study contributes to a previous paper on the developing country growth collapse by adding important demographic variables. The paper provides an explanation for “new” negative correlations of population and economic growth: because 1960s were a relatively smooth time for economic growth, youth dependency did not seem important; however, during turbulent 1970s and 1980s, countries with falling dependency burdens weathered economic shocks better.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: demographic transition, developing countries, economic growth, population growth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Elisabetta Barbi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Assessing the rate of ageing of the human population
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Giuseppe A. Micheli
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Two theoretical interpretations of the dissonance between fertility intentions and behaviour
Abstract: In the paper we outline two possible theoretical interpretations for the inconsistency often observed between fertility intentions and fertility behaviour. We draw on socio-psychological models of human behaviour which emphasise the role of normative-affective factors on decision-making processes.   The first interpretation is based on the observation that family and fertility choices are gradually shifting from a zone where behaviour is normative regulated to a zone of normative indifference, where mere rational decision-making based on cost-benefit considerations is at work. The dissonance between fertility choices and declared intentions depends on the fact that the former are based on rational considerations, while the latter are still constrained by a normative familistic philosophy.     The second interpretation assumes the existence of an interposing mechanism in the sequence expectations-behaviour. These mechanisms, as anxiety and avoidance dispositions, filter the passage from individual value orientations in the affective sphere to their actual behaviour.   We base our argument on two sets of information. First, we use a survey which allows us to construct empirical indicators of psychological dispositions connected to expectations related to family and fertility behaviours (Abacus 1996, Italy). Second, we analyse 54 non-structured interviews conducted in Northern Italy, which give a detailed picture of the hypothesised mechanisms and suggest new directions for research.
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wienke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paul Lichtenstein
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Unobserved heterogeneity in a model with cure fraction applied to breast cancer
Abstract: We suggest a cure-mixture model to analyze bivariate time-to-event data, as motivated by the paper of Chatterjee and Shih (2001, Biometrics 57, 779 - 786), but with a simpler estimation procedure and the correlated gamma-frailty model instead of the shared gamma-frailty model. This approach allows us to deal with left truncated and right censored lifetime data and accounts for heterogeneity as well as for an insusceptible (cure) fraction in the study population. We perform a simulation study to evaluate the properties of the estimates in the proposed model and apply it to breast cancer incidence data for 5,857 Swedish female monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs from the so-called old cohort of the Swedish Twin Registry. This model is used to estimate the size of the susceptible fraction and the correlation between the frailties of the twin partners. Possible extensions, advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed. 
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, breast, cancer, correlation, survival, twins
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kenneth W. Wachter
Title: The past, present and future of demography and the role of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Additional work, family agriculture, and the birth of a first or a second child in Russia at the beginning of the 1990s
Abstract: At the beginning of the transition period, many Russian households faced substantial economic hardships and uncertainties. An economic downturn had become one of the major factors respon-sible for the significant and rapid decline of Russian fertility. However, many households tried to cope with this situation by engaging in multiple income generating activities and the cultivation of food on private plots of land. The question therefore arises whether these activities had a posi-tive impact on fertility decisions. This paper explores the association between additional em-ployment or subsistence measures (second jobs, part-time self-employment, and part-time family agriculture) and the probability to have a first or a second child in Russia during 1990 and the spring of 1993. Data from 966 respondents from the Russian component of the survey "Social Stratification in Eastern Europe after 1989: General Population Survey" show that activities that generate an additional income were positively associated with the birth of a second child. This is especially the case if these activities produce half of a respondent’s or her household’s income. The birth of a second child was also positively associated with the fact that a household con-sumed food that was cultivated by the household itself. However, none of these activities was significantly connected with the birth of a second child.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, agriculture, fertility, income
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ann-Zofie Duvander
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do child care characteristics influence continued childbearing in Sweden? An investigation of the quantity, quality, and price dimension
Abstract: We link population register data to information on regional child care characteristics in order to estimate the influence of the latter on second and third birth intensities of Swedish couples in 1997-98. Our analysis allows us to distinguish interactions and specific effects of different dimensions of the local day-care infrastructure, namely the provision rate, the child-to-staff-ratio, and the costs of care to parents. However, our results reveal no clear effects of these child care characteristics on Swedish couples’ continued childbearing. We interpret this absence of effects as a reflection of the generally very appropriate level of child care in Sweden, which is complemented by further supportive family policies. In such a context, moderate regional variations in the characteristics of day care may have no decisive impact on parents’ propensity to have another child.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, child care, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Roland Rau
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Seasonal mortality in Denmark: the role of sex and age
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Scandinavia, age effect, mortality, seasonal fluctuations, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Urs Fuhrer
Title: Erkundungen zum männlichen Kinderwunsch. Ergebnisse einer psychologischen Interviewstudie mit 30-jährigen ostdeutschen Männern zur Familiengründung.
Abstract: Unsere Untersuchung gibt einen Beitrag zu einem relativ selten behandelten Thema, nämlich den Motiven und Möglichkeiten, die junge Männer haben und sehen, eine Vaterschaft zu rea-lisieren. Wir untersuchen mit einem qualitativen Verfahren, wie Männer ihre eigene Entschei-dungsfindung gestalten, welchen Spielraum sie dabei erleben, welches für sie die bestimmen-den Personen und Faktoren für diesen biographischen Übergang sind.  In der Entwicklung der Fragestellung und der Auswertung der Interviews haben wir multidis-ziplinär gearbeitet und sowohl persönlichkeits- und sozialpsychologische, als auch demografi-sche und soziologische Konzepte herangezogen, um unser Vorgehen gegenstandsangemessen zu gestalten und die Ergebnisse in verschiedene disziplinäre Kontexte einordnen zu können.  Die Interviewteilnehmer waren 30-jährige, überwiegend kinderlose Männer aus Ostdeutsch-land, die wir mit Hilfe einer an WITZELs Problemzentriertes Interview angelehnten Technik befragt haben. Unsere Probanden stammen aus einem großen medizinisch-psychologischen Längsschnitt, so dass ausgewählte quantitative Daten als Hintergrundinformation zur Verfü-gung standen. Von besonderem Interesse war dabei, dass für diese Männer die Frage nach ei-ner eigenen Vaterschaft in einer Zeit eines massiven Geburteneinbruchs in den Neuen Län-dern bedeutsam wurde. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen eine große Variabilität und Varietät in den Erzählungen der Män-ner. Wir ziehen unterschiedliche sozialpsychologische Theorien heran (die Theorie der Sym-bolischen Selbstergänzung und die Theory of Planned Behavior), um zu verstehen, wie sich die männliche Motivations-, Intentions- und Entscheidungsbildung zu diesem wichtigen bio-graphischen Übergang in Zeiten massiven sozialen Wandels vollzieht. 
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Neue Bundesländer), family formation, interviews, men, social psychology
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelika Tölke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Insecurities in employment and occupational careers and their impact on the transition to fatherhood in Western Germany
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between work and family among men in western Germany. We investigate the extent to which a difficult start in and insecurities during the working life affect men’s transition to fatherhood, and the degree to which this effect is influenced by characteristics of the respondent´s family of origin and his relationship history.   We use proportional hazards models to analyze data of the third “Familiensurvey” conducted by the German Youth Institute in 2000. In accordance with the spillover hypothesis, which assumes that labor market success (or failure) leads to success (or failure) in family behavior, we found that under difficult and/or insecure circumstances in career patterns, men delayed their transition to fatherhood. The delay was caused in particular by unemployment, self-employment or part-time work. A successful career development, however, increases the propensity to have a child soon after having taken a career step. Contrary to the hypothesis of individualization, the social status and the composition of the family of origin still have an impact on the fertility behavior of men in adulthood. In particular, the transition rate to fatherhood was higher if the man grew up with at least one sibling, while losing a parent through death decreased the rate. Both the employment career and the parental home influence the formation of steady relationships, and this explains in part their effect on the transition to fatherhood.   Keywords: fertility; labor market; men 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer)
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vegard Skirbekk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Completing education and the timing of births and marriage: findings from a birth-month experiment in Sweden
Abstract: We investigate the timing of fertility and marriage as it depends on educational attainment utilizing a birth-month experiment in Sweden that leads to exogenous variation in the age at completing schooling. Our analysis finds that the difference of 11 months in the age at school-leaving between women born in two consecutive months, December and January the following year, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months. This effect of delayed graduation also persists for second births and the age at first marriage, but it does not affect completed fertility or the overall probability to marry prior to age 45.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/birth_month_school_graduation_and_the_timing_of_births_and_marriages_1793
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wienke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Konstantin G. Arbeev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Isabella Locatelli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A simulation study of different correlated frailty models and estimation strategies
Abstract: Frailty models are becoming more and more popular in the area of multivariate survival analysis. In particular, shared frailty models are often used despite their limitations. To overcome the disadvantages of shared frailty models numerous correlated frailty models were established during the last decade. In the present study we examine correlated frailty models, especially the behavior of the parameter estimates when using different estimation strategies. Three different frailty models are considered: the gamma model and two versions of the log-normal model. The traditional maximum likelihood procedure of parameter estimation in the gamma case with an explicit available likelihood function is compared with maximum likelihood methods based on numerical integration and a Bayesian approach using MCMC methods with the help of a comprehensive simulation study. A strong dependence between the two parameter estimates (variance and correlation of frailties) in the multivariate correlated frailty model is detected and analyzed in detail. 
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Association of late childbearing with healthy longevity among the oldest-old in China
Abstract: Statistical analysis of a large and unique longitudinal data set demonstrates that late childbearing after age 35 or 40 is significantly associated with survival and healthy survival among very old Chinese women and men. The association is stronger in oldest-old women than men. The estimates are adjusted for a variety of confounding factors of demographic characteristics, family support, social connections, health practices, and health conditions. Further analysis based on an extension of the Fixed Attribute Dynamics method shows that late childbearing is positively associated with long-term survival and healthy survival from ages 80-85 to 90-95 and 100-105.  This association exists among oldest-old women and men, but, again, the effects are substantially stronger in women than men. We discuss four possible factors which may explain why late childbearing affects healthy longevity at advanced ages: (1) social factors; (2) biological changes caused by late pregnancy and delivery; (3) genetic and other biological characteristics; and (4) selection.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family policies and low fertility in Western Europe
Abstract: This article examines current family policies in Western Europe against the backdrop of fertility decline in Europe. Its objective is to depict the nature of family policies from a cross-national perspective in order to illuminate potential relationships between them and demographic patterns. The article concentrates on those family policies that constitute the core of welfare-state policies related to childbearing and the rearing of children: Maternity policies, parental-leave policies, childcare services, and child benefits.
Length: 63 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gender and generations dimensions in welfare-state policies
Abstract: This note outlines welfare-state research that could possibly provide a framework for the collection of demographically relevant gender- and generation-sensitive welfare-state data for the GGS contextual database. It has been prepared for the Gender-and-Generations Program and is the basis of further work of the Contextual Working Group of the Gender-and-Generations Program. First, this note summarizes results of demographic research that deals with the effects of public policies on demographic behavior. This is followed by a brief outline of what kind of data we need for (comparative) research of policy effects on demographic issues.  Secondly, it gives a brief account of those conceptualizations of the welfare state that seem relevant for the purpose of our project. Thirdly, it presents a provisional and by no means complete list of some welfare-state-related measures that can be collected for a contextual database. This list serves as an example of what we need and how we should collect data in order to be able to incorporate features of welfare states and public policies in demographic analyses.
Length: 9 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Eric Stallard
Author-Name: Zhenglian Wang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation
Abstract: This article presents a procedure for estimating time-varying sex-age-specific occurrence/exposure (o/e) rates of marital status transitions to ensure that the projected life course propensities of marriage/union formation and dissolution are achieved consistently in the one-sex family status life table model. Procedures for estimating time-varying sex-age-specific marital status transition o/e rates that are consistent with the two-sex constraints and projected summary measures of marriage/union formation and dissolution in the future years in the two-sex family household projection model is proposed. The procedures proposed in this article are practically useful and can be applied in both macro and micro models for family household projections or simulations that need time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Isabella Locatelli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paul Lichtenstein
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A Bayesian correlated frailty model applied to Swedish breast cancer data
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lucia Coppola
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Education and union formation as simultaneous processes in Italy and Spain

Abstract: In recent times, both the time spent on education and the age at first union formation have significantly increased in Italy and Spain. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence of the endogeneity of the two processes. We use Panel data (European Community Household Panel), which provide detailed standardised information for both countries about education and training processes as a well as household formation. The effect of unobservable characteristics affecting the two processes at the same time has been controlled for, using simultaneous hazard modelling. On the one hand, the exit from the educational system increases the risk of entering the first union. On the other hand, there exist individual unobserved characteristics that influence the occurrence of the two processes simultaneously. If these characteristics are not controlled for, the effect of a completed education on union formation becomes biased upward.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Simon Burgess
Author-Name: Carol Propper
Author-Name: Matt Dickson
Title: Employment, family union, and childbearing decisions in Great Britain
Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship of work and family life in Britain. Using hazard regression techniques we estimate a five-equation model, which includes birth events, union formation, union dissolution, employment and non-employment events. The model allows for unobserved heterogeneity that is correlated across all five equations. We use information from the British Household Panel Survey, including the retrospective histories concerning work, union, and child bearing, to estimate this model. We obtain well-defined parameter estimates, including significant and correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We find that transitions in and out of employment for men are relatively independent of other transitions. In contrast, there are strong links between female employment, having children and union formation. By undertaking a detailed micro simulations analysis, we show that different levels of female labour force participation do not necessarily lead to large changes in fertility levels. Changes in union formation and fertility levels, on the other hand, do have a significant impact on employment rates.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vegard Skirbekk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Age and individual productivity: a literature survey
Abstract: This article surveys supervisors’ ratings, work-sample tests, analyzes of employer-employee datasets and other approaches used to estimate how individual productivity varies by age. The causes of productivity variations over the life cycle are addressed with an emphasis on how cognitive abilities affect labor market performance. Individual job performance is found to decrease from around 50 years of age, which contrasts almost life-long increases in wages. Productivity reductions at older ages are particularly strong for work tasks where problem solving, learning and speed are needed, while in jobs where experience and verbal abilities are important, older individuals’ maintain a relatively high productivity level.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/book_chapters/age_and_individual_productivity_a_literature_survey_1795
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2003-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: working-age population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brantley Liddle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport
Abstract: Demographic variables have tended to be ignored in many environment-development analyses. This paper examines how population changes (in aging, households, and urbanization/density) can help explain changes/differences in personal transport using both macro- and micro- level data. First, panel regressions are performed with IEA-OECD road sector energy use data (spanning 1960-2000) on spatial population measures, average household size, and age structure data. Then US household data is used to determine the extent compositional changes in the nature of households can explain changes in per capita driving.    An Environmental Kuznets Curve for per capita road energy use was rejected—the coefficients on the GDP squared terms were insignificant and the implied turning points were well outside the sample range; instead, the relationship between wealth and road energy was found to be monotonic (log-linear). The ideas that more densely populated countries have less personal transport demands, the young drive more, and smaller households mean higher per capita driving were confirmed. The basic result from the household decompositions was that changes in demand were more important than compositional changes, however, during some periods the compositional change component was considerable. A few policy implications can be drawn from these analyses. First, the look at micro data implies that there is much potential for policy to affect transport behavior since the compositional component of change—more difficult for policy to alter—is smaller than the behavioral or demand component. However, the look at the macro data implies that spatial factors, like population density and urbanization—which also can be difficult to alter—are significant in influencing personal transport demand. 
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: OECD countries, energy consumption, environmental policy, household size, transport
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The late life legacy of very early life
Length: 201 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heiner Maier
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: German unification and the plasticity of mortality at older ages
Abstract: German unification can be seen as a natural experiment that allows us to study the health effects of political and economic transition.  This study examined old-age survival following German unification in cohorts born in 1895, 1900, 1905 and 1910.  People born in these years were in their 80s and 90s at the time of unification in 1990.  Before unification, mortality in these cohorts was considerably higher in East Germany than in the West.  Following unification, mortality in the East declined toward prevailing levels in the West, particularly among women.  This indicates that even the very-old East Germans were able to profit from the medical, social, and economic improvements associated with unification.  Study results support the view that old-age mortality is plastic and amenable to intervention, and they attest to the importance of late-life events.
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wienke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Frailty models
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Danan Gu
Author-Name: Kenneth C. Land
Title: A new method for correcting the underestimation of disabled life expectancy inherent in conventional methods: application to the oldest old in China
Abstract: This article demonstrates that the widely used disabled life expectancies based on conventional methods are significantly underestimated due to assuming no functional status changes between age   and death. We propose a new method to correct the bias and apply it to the longitudinal survey data of about 9,000 oldest old Chinese aged 80-105 collected in 1998 and 2000. In our application the age trajectories of ADL status-specific death rates and ADL state transition probabilities of the oldest old were investigated for the first time in a developing country. We have estimated the bias-corrected disabled and active life expectancies of Chinese oldest old, and demonstrate patterns of large differentials associated with initial status, gender and advances in ages. Employing combined information on ADL and length of having been bedridden before dying, we analyze gender and age patterns of the extent of morbidity before dying among the oldest old and the implications of the debating hypothesis of compression of morbidity.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China, old age
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demographic trends in Sweden: an update of childbearing and nuptiality through 2002
Abstract: In the present note, we display the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. We update previously published indexes of marriage, divorce, and childbearing risks by calendar year in order to cover the developments up trough 2002, adding another two to three years of observation to our series.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility trends, nuptiality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Migration and fertility: competing hypotheses re-examined
Abstract: Competing views exist concerning the impact of geographical mobility on childbearing patterns. Early research shows that internal migrants largely exhibit fertility levels dominant in their childhood environment, while later studies find migrants’ fertility to resemble more closely that of natives at destination. Some authors attribute the latter to adaptation, but others claim that selection of migrants by fertility preferences may be the cause. Moreover, the short-term fertility-lowering-effect of residential relocation has also been proposed and challenged in the literature. This paper contributes to the existing discussion by providing an analysis of the effect of internal migration on fertility of post-war Estonian female cohorts. We base our study on retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression for both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows that first, the risk of birth decreases with increasing settlement size and the decrease is larger for higher-order parities. Second, it shows that migrants, whatever their origin, exhibit fertility levels similar to those of non-migrants at destination. Our further analysis supports the adaptation hypothesis. We find no evidence on strong selectivity of migrants by fertility preferences, although we observe elevated fertility levels after residential relocations arsing from union formation.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Estonia, event history analysis, fertility, internal migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative overview of recent trends and patterns in childbearing in the three Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. We use indexes pro-duced by applying event-history techniques to register data of the three countries in order to describe and contrast fertility developments by birth order over the last three decades of the 20th century. By combining the same kind of data from three countries, we get a very accurate picture of various cross-country differences in fertility levels. We can determine to what extent developments in one country are specific to that country and to what extent they are part of a more general Nordic pattern of childbearing. We demonstrate how Swedish fertility has fluctuated relatively strongly during the whole period while Danish and Norwegian fertility have evolved more gradually. Nevertheless, trends in Norway and Sweden appear fairly synchronized. A turnaround from decreasing to increasing levels of childbearing is, for example, evident in 1977 in both Norway and Sweden. In Denmark, a similar turnaround occurs considerably later, in 1983. A shift to shorter birth intervals in Sweden during the 1980s is specific to that country and contributed to its stronger increase in fertility during that decade.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Scandinavia, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimira Kantorová
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Education and entry into motherhood: the Czech Republic during state-socialism and the transition period (1970-1997)
Abstract: The Czech Republic presently shows one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in Europe. A decline in period fertility followed the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy that started in 1990. In this study, we investigate women’s transition to first births, focusing on the impact of female education. We make a distinction between the effects of education attainment and time elapsed since completion of education. There are two aspects to the role of education that influenced the delay of entry into motherhood in the 1990s. First, during early adulthood women spent more time in education than their contemporaries did in the era of state socialism. Second, women entered motherhood much later after completion of education than before, which contrasts with the previous pattern of a strong immediate effect the completion of studies had on first-birth risks. The decline in first birth risks in the 1990s applies more so to women with a higher level of education than to those with a lower level. We argue that greater education differentiation of labor market opportunities and constraints brought about greater education differentiation in the timing of entry into motherhood.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
Number: WP-2003-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Czech Republic, first birth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marcantonio Caltabiano
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Italian adolescents’ first romantic relationships: an explorative study
Abstract: Recently collected retrospective data (from 2000-2001) on Italian university students are analyzed to find out the most significant factors that accelerate or delay the entrance into a first couple rela-tionship for teenagers. Intensity regression analysis is used to test factors that either proved to be noteworthy from previous analyses or are supposed to be significant from a theoretical point of view. Unobserved heterogeneity is included in the model to take into account the characteristics of individuals that are not measured or that are not measurable. The following results arise: age is highly significant, with a decreasing hazard after age 19. The influence of family, a strong institu-tion in Italy, is noticeable. Poor communication with parents is negatively associated with entrance into the first romantic relationship while tolerance of a son’s behaviors is positively associated.. The social life of a young person also shapes this event: shyer adolescents had a lower relative risk compared to their contemporaries who had many leisure interests and a wider friendship network. As expected, lower satisfaction with self-appearance exerts a negative weight on the hazard. Fi-nally, unobserved heterogeneity is not found to be significant in the model.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Age correspondence for different mortality regimes with and without the change point
Abstract: The mortality rates are steadily declining with time. The remaining lifetime for e.g. 65 years old person even 20-30 years ago was substantially smaller than nowadays. Therefore, the age correspondence problem for populations in different mortality regimes is of interest. A simple solution, based on the equality of accumulated mortality rates (or, equivalently, on the equality of probabilities of survival) is considered. Furthermore, the mortality regime with a change point is defined and the procedure of age re-calculation after the change point is suggested. Two age re-calculation models (and their combination) are discussed: the first one accounts for wear accumulation in the process of aging and the other is characterized by a kind of  memoryless property.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lifesaving increases life expectancy
Abstract: The notion of repeated minimal repair is analyzed and applied to modeling the lifesaving procedure of organisms. Under certain assumptions the equivalence between demographic lifesaving model and reliability shock model is proved. Both of these models are based on the non-homogeneous Poisson processes of underlying potentially harmful events The lifesaving ratio for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is defined. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-040.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-040
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-040
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-040

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Modeling failure (mortality) rate with a change point
Abstract: Simple models for the failure (mortality) rate change point are considered. The relationship with the mean residual lifetime function change point problem is discussed. It is shown that when the change point is random, the observed failure (mortality) rate can be obtained via a specific mixture of lifetime distributions. The shape of the observed failure (mortality) rate is analyzed and the corresponding sim-ple but meaningful example is considered.
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2003-041.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2003-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2003-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2003-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Women’s labor force attachment and childbearing in Finland
Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of women’s economic activity, earnings and take-up of child home care allowance on childbearing, using a ten percent sample from a longitudinal register data set that covers the entire female population of reproductive age in Finland in 1988–2000. Results show that a woman’s economic activity and income were positively correlated with entry into motherhood and to a lesser extent with having a second child. This supports the notion of a common pattern of this relationship in the Nordic countries. In the light of Finland’s rollercoaster economic development in the 1990s, the effects of a change in female population composition by economic characteristics on the fertility trend were small.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, childbearing, fertility determinants, fertility trends, income, labor force participation, unemployment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sara Grainger
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan Beise
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Menopause and post-generative longevity: Testing the ´stopping-early´ and ´grandmother´ hypotheses

Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Beise
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The helping and the helpful grandmother - The role of maternal and paternal grandmothers in child mortality in the 17th and 18th century population of French Settlers in Quebec, Canada
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eckart Voland
Author-Name: Jan Beise
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: "The husband’s mother is the devil in house" - Data on the impact of the mother-in-law on stillbirth mortality in historical Krummhörn (C18-C19 Germany) and some thoughts on the evolution of postgenerative female life
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ann-Zofie Duvander
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Erwerbsstatus und Familienentwicklung in Schweden aus paarbezogener Perspektive
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of men’s and women’s labor-market attachment in the process of family building in Sweden, taking the perspective of couples. Using register data for the years 1981 to 1999 we estimate event-history models for second and third births. It is shown that income and employment of both partners have a largely independent effect on the propensity to have another child. The effect is of similar size for men and women and points to a generally positive relationship between our employment variables and continued childbearing (which is contrary to assumptions suggested by the ‘New Home Economics’, for example). The finding that a traditional family context tends to hamper higher parity births in Sweden points to a relatively high degree of gender equity in that society.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, family dynamics, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelika Tölke
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Die Bedeutung von Herkunftsfamilie, Berufsbiografie und Partnerschaften für den Übergang zur Ehe und Vaterschaft
Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which a difficult entry into the labor market and insecurities during the working life affect men’s decision to marry and to have their first child and how these effects hold true when characteristics of the family of origin and the respondents own relationship history are included. Data of the third “Familiensurvey” of the German Youth Institute, conducted in the year 2000, are analyzed for men in Western Germany. Under difficult and/or insecure circumstances men delay their start of a family. Being not employed, being self-employed or working part-time is in particular decisive. The composition of the family of origin still have an impact when men are grown up and when they decide about starting a family. Having siblings increases the propensity to marry and to start one’s own family in particular whereas the loss of a parent by death decreases the probability.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), cohabitation, employment, marriage, parenthood, parents
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility decisions in the FRG and GDR
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to compare family policies and fertility patterns in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the German Federal Republic (FRG).  Among other aspects, both societies particularly differed in the integration of women into the labor market.  By contrasting the fertility development in these two societies, this paper aims to illuminate how women’s education and employment relates to fertility decisions in societal contexts that support (in the case of the GDR) and hamper (in the case of the FRG) the compatibility between work and family life.  Data for this analysis comes from the German Fertility and Family Survey (of the year 1992).  We provide descriptive statistics for all birth parities, but we limit the multivariate event history analysis to first births only.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sozialstruktur und Kinderbetreuung: Eine Analyse der sozialen und ökonomischen Determinanten der Nutzung von Kindertageseinrichtungen
Abstract: Das Kinderbetreuungssystem ist ein integraler Bestandteil der wohlfahrtsstaatlichen Institutionen, welche die Geschlechtergleichheit auf den Arbeitsmarkt, die Frauenerwerbstätigkeit und das Geburtenverhalten prägt. Während in markt-liberalen Wohlfahrtsstaaten Kinderbetreuung in erster Linie über den Markt, d.h. über die Kaufkraft der Nachfrager reguliert wird, wird in universalistischen Wohlfahrtsstaaten ein allgemein zugängiges öffentliches Betreuungssystem bereit gestellt, dessen Ziel es insbesondere ist, die Erwerbstätigkeit beider Elternteile zu fördern. In konservativ-korporatistischen Ländern, wie in Deutschland,  kommt dem Kinderbetreuungssystem in erster Linie eine sozialisationsergänzende Funktion zu. Während seit  1996 ein Recht auf einen Halbtagsbetreuungsplatz im Kindergarten besteht, sind andere Betreuungsformen nur sehr eingeschränkt verfügbar. Trotz seiner universalen Ausrichtung zeigen die empirischen Analysen mit den Daten des Mikrozensus 1998 deutliche sozio-strukturelle Unterschiede in der Nutzung des Kindergartens. So besuchen ausländische Kinder seltener den Kindergarten als deutsche Kinder. Darüber hinaus gibt es einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen dem Bildungsstatus der Mutter und der Nutzung des Kindergartens. Im Krippen- und Hortbereich zeigt sich eine Konzentration von Kindern von unverheirateten und erwerbstätigen Eltern. In den neuen Bundesländern sind es insbesondere Kinder Vollzeit erwerbstätiger und damit eher gut ausgebildeter Frauen, die für ihre Kinder Tageseinrichtungen nutzen. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, child care
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Guiping Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does divorce risk depend on spouses´ relative income? A register-based study of first marriages in Sweden in 1981–1998
Abstract: The relationship between increasing women’s earnings and rising divorce rates frequently has been explained by the so-called independence effect: If a wife enjoys a higher earning than her husband does, she gains less from marriage. It has also been argued that in a society with egalitarian gender attitudes this effect is less important. In this paper, we test if the independence effect applies to Sweden, a country in which egalitarian gender views dominate and female labor-force participation and divorce rates are high. Our analysis is based on a large register data set and intensity regression models. We found support for the ‘independence effect’: The linear relationship between the share of a wife’s income and the divorce risk is positive. We also found that the higher the total income of the couple, the lower their divorce risk, but this relationship appears to be less strong.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, divorce, family dynamics, income, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kirk Scott
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Labour-market attachment and entry into parenthood: The experience of immigrant women in Sweden
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of labour-market attachment on entry into motherhood for foreign-born women in Sweden. The study uses a longitudinal, register-based data set consisting of the entire population of immigrants from ten nations and a five-percent random sample of natives. The effects of earned income are evident, with increased income levels increasing the probability of becoming a mother for all observed nationalities. The effects of various states of participation and non-participation in the labour force do not vary greatly between immigrants and Swedish-born. Among all subgroups, we find a higher propensity to begin childbearing among those who are established in the labour market. Contrary to popular belief welfare recipience clearly reduces the first-birth intensity for immigrants but not for natives. The similarity in patterns across widely different national groups supports the notion that various institutional factors affecting all subgroups are crucial in influencing childbearing behaviour.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ewa Fratczak
Title: Social capital and fertility intentions: the case of Poland
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Poland, fertility determinants, social capital
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Johannes Huinink
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family formation in times of social and economic change: an analysis of the 1971 East German cohort
Abstract: The birth cohort 1971 entered transition to adulthood at the onset of societal transformation in East Germany. Their marriage and fertility behavior therefore was expected to be severely affected by the upheavals following unification. And indeed, compared to their predecessors, there is a drastic increase in the age at marriage, age at first birth and a decline in second birth risks. In this paper, we adopt a life course perspective to investigate the factors that have contributed to the postponement of family formation after unification. The empirical analysis suggests that highly educated women in particular are postponing fertility. Women with a relatively low education, by contrast, are accelerating family formation. Contrary to standard views on East German fertility, we do not find evidence for the hypothesis that unemployment generally lead to a postponement of first birth.   
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program: overview, conceptual framework and the link to the Generations and Gender Survey
Abstract: This paper follows two aims. First it intends to give an overview of the contextual database of the Generations and Gender Program and how it is linked to the Generations and Gender Survey. Secondly, it provides a documentation of the approaches taken towards the conceptual definition and construction of the database. The document consists of two parts. The first gives a brief description of the underlying ideas of the database and the approach taken in order to develop its conceptual framework and construct the database. The second part is a note on the link between the Generations and Gender Survey and the contextual database. Starting from the GGS questionnaire, the main interfaces between micro data and contextual domains are investigated.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: data collection
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katja Köppen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The compatibility between work and family life – an empirical study of second birth risks in West Germany and France
Abstract: In this study, we compare second birth risks in France and West Germany using data from the Family and Fertility Survey (FFS). Second birth risks in France are higher than in West Germany and we investigate whether this phenomenon relates to different institutional constraints regarding the compatibility between work and family life. Considering that education is a good indicator for higher career and income prospects, one would assume that highly educated women encounter low fertility rates in a society that makes it hard to combine both domains. Our results, however, show that second birth risks are higher for highly educated women than for women with lower education in both countries. Nevertheless, the positive effect of women’s education on second birth risks is strong and stable in the case of France only. In West Germany, the positive effect is a weak one and it weakens even further after controlling for the eduaction level of the partner. In France, the strong positive effect of women’s education on second birth risks remains unchanged, even after controlling for the partners’ characteristics and other control variables. Our conclusion is that since in France the compatibility between work and family life is relatively high, highly educated women turn their education into work opportunities and income. In West Germany, where work and family life are rather incompatible, women often have to make a decision between an employment career and motherhood as two exclusive life options. In such a situation, it is primarily the partners’ economic situation that influences fertility.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: comparative analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rasmus Hoffmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does the impact of socioeconomic status on mortality decrease with increasing age?
Abstract: The impact of SES on mortality is an established fact. I examine if this impact decreases with increasing age. Most research finds that it does so but it is unknown whether this decrease is due to mortality selection. The data I use come from the US-Health and Retirement Study, which surveyed 9376 persons aged 59 and over from 1992 to 2000. The variables allow for a time varying measurement of SES, health and behavior. Event-history-analysis is applied to analyze differences in mortality rates. My results show that socioeconomic mortality differences are stable across ages whereas they clearly decline with decreasing health. My first finding, that health rather than age is the equalizer combined with the second finding, that good health itself is unequally distributed, leads to the conclusion that in old age, the impact of SES is transferred to the health status and hence it is stable across ages.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, mortality, old age, socio-economic differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Turid Noack
Author-Name: Ane Seierstad
Author-Name: Harald Weedon-Fekjær
Title: The demographics of same-sex „marriages“ in Norway and Sweden
Abstract: The present study provides an investigation of the demographics of same-sex marriages, or registered partnerships (“registrerade partnerskap”), in Norway and Sweden. We give an overview of the demographic characteristics of such spouses, and study patterns in divorce risks. A comparison with similar dynamics of heterosexual marriages is provided. Our study is based on longitudinal information from the population registers of the two countries covering all persons in partnerships. Our demographic analyses involve information on characteristics such as age, sex, geographical background, experience of previous opposite-sex marriage, biological parenthood, and educational attainment of the partners involved. We find that in many respects the distributions of married populations over these characteristics differ by the sex composition of couples. Patterns in divorce risks are quite similar in same-sex and opposite-sex marriages, but divorce-risk levels are considerably higher in same-sex partnerships. The divorce risk in female partnerships is practically double that of the risk in partnerships of men.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway, Sweden, divorce, homosexuality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marit Rønsen
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gendering the family composition: sex preferences for children and childbearing behavior in the Nordic countries
Abstract: It has been argued recently that a society’s ‘gender system’ influences parents’ sex preferences for children. If this was true, one should expect to find no evidence of such preferences in countries with a high level of gender equality. In this paper we exploit population register data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden to examine continuities and changes in parental sex preferences in the Nordic countries during the last three to four decades. First, we cannot observe a visible effect of the sex of the first-born child on second birth risks. Secondly, we detect a distinct preference for at least one child of each sex among parents of two children. Next to this combination preference our analysis reveals, thirdly, that Danish, Norwegian and Swedish parents developed a preference for having a daughter, while Finns exhibit a significant son preference. These findings show that modernization and more equal opportunities for women and men do not necessarily lead to parental gender indifference. On the contrary, they might even result in ‘new’ sex preferences.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/gendering_family_composition_sex_preferences_for_children_and_childbearing_behavior_in_the_nordic_countries_2228
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, sex preference
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: René Houle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sample size and statistical significance of hazard regression parameters. An exploration by means of Monte Carlo simulation of four transition models based on Hungarian GGS data
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the relation between sample sizes of female respondents aged 18-44 and the statistical significance of parameter estimates in four piecewise constant proportional hazard regression models by means of microsimulation. The underlying models for first marriage, first birth, second birth, and first divorce are estimated from Hungarian GGS data and  interpreted and used as typical event-history models for the analysis of GGS data in general.  The models are estimated from the full biographies as well as from three- and six-year inter-panel biographies of the simulated samples.   The simulation results indicate that there is great sensibility of the parameters that reach statistical significance to the sample size precisely in the sample range of the GGS. This means that any reduction or increase in the sample size will notably affect the statistical analysis of the data. Marginal gains in terms of the number of significant parameters are especially high up to 3.000 respondents when applying rather modest thresholds of significance. For higher thresholds, marginal gains remain steep for sample sizes up to 5.000 respondents.  When analyzing inter-panel histories, especially for a single three-year interval, the likelihood that parameter estimates are significant is very moderate. For 6-year inter-panel histories, we get better results, at least for a sample size of at least 3.000. When reducing the sample size to below 3.000, the number of significant results for inter-panel histories deteriorates rapidly.  
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: event history surveys, microsimulation, samples, simulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility of internal migrants: comparison between Austria and Poland
Abstract: Previous research has proposed four competing views on an individual’s fertility following a move from one social context to another. Each view has received support but has also been challenged by literature. This study contributes to the existing discussion on fertility by providing an analysis of the effects of internal migration on the fertility of post-war Austrian and Polish female cohorts. We base our study on retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression to both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows, first, that natives in urban areas in general and in the large cities in particular have lower fertility compared to non-migrants in rural areas, both in Austria and Poland. Second, it reveals that people who move from one place to another adopt the fertility behaviour that is dominant at destination. Third, we observe an elevated first birth risk for women who move because of union formation, and a short-term postponement of childbearing for those who settle in a large city. Our country comparison shows some differences in fertility variation across settlements, but, overall, the results are quite similar, despite the different post-war societal context of two countries.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, Poland, event history analysis, fertility, internal migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: René Houle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The effects of socio-cultural and labor market conditions on marital separation during the early democratic period in Spain
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the socio-cultural conditions and labour market participation correlates of marital separation in transition Spain (1977-90). In the country, marital disruption is highly selective. Men and women who have completed secondary education at least and women who participate in the labour market are more prone to be involved in marital separation than other groups. We also observed a differential effect by sex of contextual covariates on divorce risks. For women, a strong positive association between proportion of the labour force in the service sector in provinces and marital disruption has been found. For men, the socio-cultural context is stronger than the economic opportunity effect. The other important result is the presence of a “U” shape curve linking divorce with socio-economic characteristics. Divorce risks tend to be higher at the opposite ends of the socio-economic structure, a fact that is more pronounced for women than men.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
Number: WP-2004-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, divorce rate, labor force participation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Zur Bedeutung sozialen Kapitals für Fertilitätsentscheidungen: theoretische und empirische Darstellungen am Beispiel Bulgariens
Abstract: Models on the impact of social networks on reproductive behavior primarily address processes of interpersonal influence on fertility related values and utility perceptions and consider aspects of social support and social capital only to a small extend. On the basis of an exchange theoretical definition of social capital it is argued that general resources like money, time, or active help generate social capital that is relevant for fertility decisions, because they help to reduce the costs of having children and stabilize the economic situation of a household. Data from 2002 on the fertility intentions of 2,016 Bulgarian women support this association. The availability of supportive resources has a positive impact on women’s intentions to have a second or third child. However, the availability of these resources does not significantly matter for the intended timing of birth. The embeddedness in kin-based exchange systems of indirect reciprocity also positively influence women’s fertility intentions. This result also highlights the significance of parents as sources of intergenerational transfers and support. (Keywords: Social capital, fertility, Bulgaria, exchange theory, reciprocity)
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, fertility determinants, social capital, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Angleichung oder Verfestigung von Differenzen? Geburtenentwicklung und Familienformen in Ost- und Westdeutschland
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Neue Bundesländer), Germany/FRG, family formation, family forms, fertility rate, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Generations and Gender Contextual Database: concepts and content
Abstract: This paper aims at contributing to a proposal for the concept and content of the Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program. We develop guidelines for data collection by identifying the main focus, the key dimensions as well as the main data types of the GGP Contextual Database.  Based on these theoretical considerations and with a view to support a multilevel approach to GGP data, we propose a list of 200 variables that include statistical norms, legal norms and regulations, the general economic situation, welfare state policies, and culture.  
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, data banks
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: René Houle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: To concentration of reproduction in cohorts of US and European women
Abstract: We study inter-individual variability in number of children among women. Concentration ratio (CR) and percentile measures are used. In most countries CR has increasing from cohorts of the 1930s-40s onward due to rise in childlessness. In cohorts of the early 1960s CR varies from 0.24 to 0.46 among 20 countries. West Germany and the USA have the lowest values of CR, while Eastern European countries have the highest. The US CPS and FFS allow further exploring the variability. Fertility strongly varies across socio-demographic groups. Advanced groups of women experience childlessness of 30%, average fertility of 1.3-1.5 and CR of 0.45-0.49. Groups with lower qualification experience childlessness of 10 percent, average fertility of 2.4-3.0, and CR of 0.30-0.34. The inter-group contrast can not explain high concentration of reproduction in the USA, since variability is high within each group. Concentration of reproduction could be driven by women’s preferences/orientations toward family vs. career.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, USA, fertility measurements, fertility schedules, Gini index
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childlessness and the concentration of reproduction in Austria
Abstract: In this paper we study the changes of reproduction concentration among women, the levels of childlessness, individual factors influencing childlessness, and the contribution of childlessness to the concentration of reproduction in Austria for the female age cohorts 1917-1961. International comparative studies find a decline in the concentration of reproduction in the last century for all western countries, a trend that was reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal was mainly triggered by an increase of childlessness, a result that can be confirmed also for Austria. The country has one of the highest levels of childlessness, both currently and historically, and changes in the level of childlessness are very pronounced.  Austria has very low fertility, too; between the world wars it even witnessed the lowest period fertility in the world. While cohort fertility rates peaked during the baby-boom with 2.5 children per women, fertility decreased considerably for more recent age cohorts. The recent changes in fertility can be attributed partly to composition effects resulting from the educational expansion of the last decades. As our analysis shows, even in the times of the baby boom, cohort fertility exceeded the reproductive level only for the lowest of eight different educational groups, and this group is rapidly decreasing in size. Besides the strong impact of educational on cohort fertility, childlessness and concentration measures of reproduction, a detailed study based on micro-census data reveals strong urban-rural differentials in the demographic changes of the last decades. We can conclude that the recent re-increase in reproduction concentration is an entirely urban phenomenon. Micro-census data also allow for the study of intergenerational dynamics. Comparing the educational level of women with their parents’ educational attainment, we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of downward mobility in the lower end of the educational spectrum. In the upper end of the educational spectrum we found a strong positive effect on childlessness of upward mobility.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, childless couples, first birth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Mortality in varying environment
Abstract: An impact of environment on mortality, similar to survival analysis, is often modeled by the proportional hazards model, which assumes the corresponding comparison with a baseline environment. This model describes the memory-less property, when the mortality rate at a given instant of time depends only on the environment at this in-stant of time and does not depend on the history. In the presence of degradation the assumption of this kind is usually unrealistic and history-dependent models should be considered. The simplest stochastic degradation model is the accelerated life model. We discuss these models for the cohort setting and apply the developed approach to the period setting for the case when environment (stress) is modeled by the functions with switching points (jumps in the level of the stress).
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Magdalena M. Muszynska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Employment after childbearing: a comparative study of Italy and Norway
Abstract: In this study we look at the circumstances under which motherhood and employment are compatible. Comparing two countries, Italy and Norway, we analyze the impact of macro factors and individual characteristics on employment decisions of first- and second-time mothers. Our results show that in Norway, where flexible forms of employment are a popular way to reconcile family life and employment, not only many women start to work when their child is small, but the fertility is also relatively high. In Italy, characterized by high rigidities of the labor market and where flexible forms of employment are hardly available, relatively few mothers enter employment and fertility is low. In addition, we found that in both countries better educated women and women with more work experience return to their jobs relatively soon after childbirth. The majority of women with a low level of education and who did not work before the childbirth do not take up work when the child is small.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2004-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2004-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, Norway, female employment, fertility, working life
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2004-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2004-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Nichteheliche Mutterschaft und soziale Ungleichheit: zur sozioökonomischen Differenzierung der Familienformen in Ost- und Westdeutschland
Abstract: Nichteheliche Geburten haben in den 1990er Jahren in Westdeutschland, vor allem aber in Ostdeutschland stark an Bedeutung gewonnen. Der deutsche familialistische Wohlfahrtsstaat fördert jedoch steuerlich und sozialpolitisch vorrangig verheiratete Paare. Zugleich unterscheidet er zwischen Alleinerziehenden und nichtehelichen Lebensgemeinschaften. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist zu erwarten, dass verheiratete, kohabitierende und alleinerziehende Mütter sich in ihren sozialstrukturellen Hintergründen und hauptsächlichen Unterhaltsquellen (Einkommen des Partners, staatliche Transferzahlungen und eigenes Einkommen) unterscheiden. Analysen der Mikrozensen der Jahre 1991-2000 unterstützen diese These teilweise. Alleinerziehende Frauen haben häufiger einen geringen Bildungsabschluss und sind häufiger von sozialstaatlichen Transferzahlungen abhängig als Frauen in anderen Familienformen. In Westdeutschland leben gut ausgebildete Mütter vergleichsweise häufig in einer nichtehelichen Lebensgemeinschaft. Kohabitierende Mütter sind zudem häufiger Vollzeit erwerbstätig als andere Mütter. In Ostdeutschland bestehen nur geringe Unterschiede zwischen verheirateten und in einer nichtehelichen Lebensgemeinschaft lebenden Müttern im Hinblick auf den Bildungsabschluss und das Ausmaß der Erwerbsbeteiligung. Auch verheiratete Mütter sind selten vom Einkommen des Partners abhängig. Die ökonomische Unabhängigkeit verheirateter Mütter ist ein zentrales Merkmal des Wandels der Familie in Ostdeutschland und begründet deutliche Ost-West-Unterschiede in den ökonomischen Grundlagen von Familien.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, marriage duration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility and spatial mobility: evidence from Austria
Abstract: There is a growing body of literature looking at the interplay between an individual’s residential and other careers in the life-course. Previous research has mostly studied the impact of partnership and employment changes on spatial mobility. This paper focuses on the effect of childbearing on migrations and residential moves. We base our study on retrospective event-history data from Austria and apply intensity regression. Our analysis shows, first, that the birth of a child triggers housing- and environment-related residential relocations. Second, it significantly reduces couples’ wish and chances of moving over long distances for a job. The event of first conception also induces moves related to partnership formation.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, event history analysis, fertility, migration, residential mobility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heiner Maier
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Month of birth influences survival up to age 105+: first results from the age validation study of German semi-supercentenarians
Abstract: Using data from Germany, we examine if month of birth influences survival up to age 105. Since age reporting at the highest ages is notoriously unreliable we draw on age-validated information from a huge age validation project of 1487 alleged German semi-supercentenarians aged 105+. We use month of birth as an exogenous indicator for seasonal changes in the environment around the time of birth. We find that the seasonal distribution of birth dates changes with age. For 925 age-validated semi-supercentenarians the seasonality is more pronounced than at the time of their births (1880-1900). Among the December-born the relative risk of survival from birth to age 105+ is 16 per cent higher than the average, among the June-born, 23 per cent lower. The month-of-birth pattern in the survival risks of the German semi-supercentenarians resembles closely the month-of-birth pattern in remaining life expectancy at age 50 in Denmark.
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A study on policies and practices in selected countries that encourage childbirth: the case of Sweden
Abstract: Swedish family policies are not directly aimed at encouraging childbirth. Their main goal has rather been to support women’s labour-force participation and to promote gender equality. The focus is to strengthen individuals so that they are able to pursue their family and occupational tracks without being too strongly dependent on other individuals. The reconciliation of family and working life of women has been facilitated by (i) individual taxation, which makes it less attractive for couples to pursue gendered segregation of work and care, (ii) an income-replacement based parental-leave system, which gives women incentives to establish themselves in the labour market before considering childbirth, and (iii) subsidized child-care, which allows women to return to work after parental leave. Fertility has fluctuated during recent decades but, as in the other Nordic countries with a similar welfare-state setup, it has stayed well above the European average. The Swedish context clearly is conducive to such “highest-low” fertility. In this study, I show that institutional factors seem to be far more decisive than cultural ones in shaping childbearing behaviour, and demonstrate some specific impacts of family policies on childbearing dynamics.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dora Kostova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tatyana Kotzeva
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vetka  Jekova
Author-Name: Kremena  Borissova
Title: The contextual database of the generations and gender program in Bulgaria: conceptual framework and an overview of the Bulgarian context concerning the central database topics
Abstract: This paper outlines the concept and content of the Contextual Database of the international Generations and Gender Program and gives an overview of the context of demographic behavior in Bulgaria.  The Contextual Database provides an instrument that together with the Generations and Gender Survey allows studying how differences in context shape demographic processes. The database offers the opportunity to analyze in a comparative way the interaction between the micro and macro dimension.  Bulgaria is among the first countries fielding the Generations and Gender Survey and that is engaged in contextual data collection within this comparative framework. While both micro- and contextual data for Bulgaria will become available in the course of the year 2005, we present in this paper a text contribution that provides an overview of the Bulgarian context and introduces the list of variables that make up the database. 
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, data collection
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hilke Brockmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jutta Gampe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The cost of population aging: forecasting future hospital expenses in Germany
Abstract: Forecasts are always wrong. Still, they paint potential future scenarios and provide a platform for policy decisions today. This is what gives forecast such a high salience in political debates about the effects of population aging. The paper aims at gauging the effect of population aging on hospital expenses in Germany. We use a probabilistic forecast model comprising a stochastic demographic component that exploits historical mortality trends, a stochastic cost component based on typical hospital costs over the life-course, and a quality measure of medical progress, which builds on past advances in hospital treatment. Three different scenarios are constructing, yielding 3 important results. Firstly, there is an increase in overall hospital expenditure until the German baby boomers will die out (2040 to 2050). Secondly, the increase is comparably moderate because the average individual costs are likely to decline as elderly health improves and since medical progress has an ambiguous influence on hospital expenditures. Finally, the cost increase varies significantly by gender and disease.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Becoming a parent in East Germany during the 1990s. The impact of personal considerations on the timing of entry to parenthood
Abstract: This paper deals with psychological determinants of fertility differentials in East Germany in the 1990s. We test the explanatory and statistical power of psychological covariates in an event-history model of first-birth intensities together with other covariates. We show that different psychological covariates (wishes and fears, coping-styles, etc.) are important determinants of the transition to parenthood. A crucial finding is the existence of strong sex differentials in such impacts.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility determinants, sex differentials, social psychology
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Why does Sweden have such high fertility?
Abstract: By current European standards, Sweden has had a relatively high fertility in recent decades. During the 1980s and 1990s, the annual Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Sweden undulated considerably around a level just under 1.8, which is a bit lower than the corresponding level in France and well above the level in West Germany. (In 2004 the Swedish TFR reached 1.76 on an upward trend.) The Swedish completed Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR) was rather constant at 2 for the cohorts that produced children in the same period; for France it stayed around 2.1 while the West-German CFR was lower and declined regularly to around 1.6. In this presentation, I describe the background for these developments and explain the unique Swedish undulations. Part of the explanation of the trend and level in Swedish fertility is the extensive battery of public family policies in the country. They reflect the great generosity, high flexibility, and universalistic approach of the whole system, where family policies are coordinated with educational policies and labor-market policies in an effort to promote the status of women and achieve equity for all residents. The state has been engaged in the development of high-quality all-day childcare arrangements available to all children, and has conducted campaigns to influence public attitudes toward a woman-friendly political culture. Reforms have been motivated by gender-equality considerations and by a drive to induce women to participate in the labor force and to induce men into parenting and childrearing. Legal rules are individualistic, as highlighted by the abolishment of the public widow’s pension and by a tax system where income tax is levied from the individual and not from the married couple or the household, as in Germany. Welfare-state benefits are directed similarly to the individual, not to the family. Policies can be said to focus on the equal right of working women to have children rather than of the right of mothers to have a job. There is no inclination in the Swedish system to encourage a mother to stay home and take care of her children; if anything there has been a move toward securing both-parent participation in childrearing.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries
Abstract: A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also series for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology re-lies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the of-ficial death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. For other coun-tries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Rus-sia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the rela-tive deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers. (Key words: aging; elderly; population estimates; quality of statistics)
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.mortality.org
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: ageing
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Qiang Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Subjective well-being and mortality in Chinese oldest old
Abstract: The present study investigates the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and mortality risk, using a large sample (N=7852) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (age range 80-105) conducted in 2000 and 2002.  Initially, we intended to contribute to the understanding of system relations between SWB, mortality risk, and unobserved heterogeneity by treating SWB as an endogenous variable, using a multi-process model. However, failure to identify unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation prevents us from employing this model. Given this limitation, the study examines three issues. First, we argue that the mortality model with duration dependency on the age of the study subjects is specified and that the model with duration dependency on time since the interview is misspecified. Second, we address problems associated with the identification of unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation. Third, we examine the association between SWB and mortality risk in the Chinese oldest old as well as the risk pattern by gender, without considering unobserved heterogeneity. We find that SWB is not a significant predictor of mortality risk when we control for socio-demographic characteristics and health status. Health plays a very important role in the relationship between SWB and mortality risk in the oldest old. Gender differences in the predictive pattern of SWB on this risk are negligible in the sample.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Concentration of reproduction in Austria: general trends and differentials by educational attainment and urban-rural setting
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the inter-individual diversity in fertility among women in Austria for the female birth cohorts 1917-1961. Comparative studies revealed that all Western countries have witnessed a decline in the concentration of reproduction during the 20th century, a trend that has reversed for the most recent cohorts that have reached the end of their reproductive period. This reversal, mainly triggered by an increase in childlessness, has been far less pronounced in Austria and limited to urban municipalities. Changes in fertility and concentration have followed very different trajectories by educational attainment as well as by the type of municipality in which women lived at age 15. Within educational categories, we found large differentials by profession and intergenerational educational mobility.  A consequence of the concentration of reproduction is that the level of cohort fertility differs from the average sibship size seen from the children’s perspective. In the Austrian case, in contrast to the pronounced fertility differentials by educational attainment, the average sibship size experienced by children became almost independent of parents’ education. In difference to the negative correlation between fertility and concentration found in earlier studies for the first demographic transition and the baby boom, the fertility level and concentration moved in the same direction, and did so for an extended time period following the baby boom, accelerating changes from the children’s perspective.  
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, family composition, fertility trends
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ann-Zofie Duvander
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gender Equality and Fertility in Sweden: A Study on the Impact of the Father’s Uptake of Parental Leave on Continued Childbearing
Abstract: In Sweden, the birth of a child induces the right to more than one year of paid parental leave that can be shared between the parents. This paper examines the relationship between the father’s and the mother’s respective use of such leave and the continued childbearing of a couple. Our investigation is based on longitudinal information on registered parental-leave use and childbearing of all intact unions in Sweden during 1988-99. We analyze our data by means of event-history analysis. We expect an extended paternal involvement in childrearing to be positively associated with continued childbearing since it makes family building more compatible with the mother’s labor-force participation. In addition, such commitment to childrearing from the father’s side is likely to signal a higher interest of his for continued family building. Around 85 percent of fathers take some leave but in most cases episodes are brief. We find a positive effect of a father’s moderately long leave on a couple’s second- and third-birth propensity, but no such effect of a very long paternal leave.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childlessness and educational attainment among Swedish women born in 1955-59
Abstract: In this paper, we extend the concept of educational attainment to cover the field of education attained in addition to the conventional level of education. Our empirical investigation uses register records containing childbearing and educational histories of an entire cohort of women born in Sweden (about a quarter-million individuals). This allows us to operate with a high number of educational field-and-level combinations (some sixty in all). It turns out that the field of education serves as an indicator of a woman’s potential reproductive behavior better than the mere level. We discover that in each field permanent childlessness increases (some) with the educational level attained, but that the field itself is the more important. In general, we find that women educated for jobs in teaching and health care are in a class of their own, with much lower permanent childlessness than in any other major grouping at each educational level. Women educated in arts and humanities or for religious occupations have unusually high fractions permanently childless.  Our results cast doubt on the assumption that higher education per se must result in higher childlessness. In our opinion, several factors intrinsic and extrinsic to an educational system (such as its flexibility, its gender structure, and the manner in which education is hooked up to the labor market) may influence the relationship between education and childlessness, and we would not expect a simple, unidirectional relationship.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/education_and_childlessness_the_relationship_between_educational_field_educational_level_and_childlessness_2212
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, education, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sylvia Keim
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Mapping social influence on fertility: a mix-method approach to data collection
Abstract: Theoretical propositions on the importance of social effects arising from informal interaction on fertility change are not yet supported by systematic empirical evidence (Kohler et al. 2002). The correct identification of informal relationships sali1ent for fertility decision-making and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups present major problems. This paper illustrates the design of a research project that specifically addresses these two problems. The project investigates the role of informal social networks on fertility decisions in East and West Germany by employing a multi-method research strategy. We use a combination of in-depth interviews, network charts, and network grids to elicit a map of individual personal relationships and to analyze their influence on respondents’ fertility decisions and intentions. We collect information in parallel from the respondents and from up to three members of their social network. 
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family formation, methodology, social norms
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Social capital related to fertility: theoretical foundations and empirical evidence from Bulgaria
Abstract: Interpersonal relationships of support have been found to be an important factor in individual fertility intentions in Central and Eastern European countries. The foundations of this positive influence have not been well explored to date, however. We present a theoretical discussion on exchange-based social capital and argue that processes of interpersonal exchange are relevant for reproductive decisions when they provide access to resources that help to reduce the costs of having children and stabilize the economic situation of a household. Data from 2002 on the fertility intentions of 2,016 Bulgarian women support our argument. The availability of important and substantive resources has a positive impact on women’s intentions to have a second or third child and their timing of having a first or second child. The embededness in kin-based exchange systems of indirect reciprocity shows similar positive effects and highlights especially the significance of parents as a source of intergenerational transfers and support.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/book_chapters/social_capital_related_to_fertility_theoretical_foundations_and_empirical_evidence_from_bulgaria_2054
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, fertility determinants, social capital
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ewa Fratczak
Title: Learning from others and receiving support: the impact of personal networks on fertility intentions in Poland
Abstract: Research about fertility has focused in the main on studying separately the influences of communication networks and social capital on reproductive behavior, but it has rarely tried to integrate both network properties theoretically or analytically. We therefore discuss a general model of purposeful behavior that perceives individuals’ subjective perceptions of the utilities of different courses of action to be affected by structures of interpersonal influence. Resources needed to realize desired goals are furthermore shaped by exchange relationships that build social capital. These considerations are empirically applied to explanations of the intentions of 758 Polish men and women ever to have a first, second, or third child. Personal networks are especially relevant for the considerations to have a first or a second child. The intentions of childless respondents are positively influenced by network partners that are in a similar stage of their reproductive biographies or that have already taken the step of having a first child. However, respondents with one child intend to have a second child with a higher probability the more they have access to fertility-related social capital. (Keywords: interpersonal influence, social capital, fertility, rational choice, behavioral intentions, Poland)
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Poland, fertility determinants, influence, interpersonal communication, social capital, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Aging: damage accumulation versus increasing mortality rate
Abstract: If aging is understood as some process of damage accumulation, it does not necessarily lead to increasing mortality rates.  Within the framework of a suggested generalization of the Strehler-Mildwan (1960) model, we show that even for models with monotonically increasing degradation, the mortality rate can still decrease. The de-cline in vitality and functions, as manifestation of aging, is modeled by the monotonically decreasing quality of life function. Using this function, the initial lifetime ran-dom variable with ultimately decreasing mortality rate is ‘weighted’ to result in a new random variable which is already characterized by the increasing rate.
Length: 11 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Veronica Esaulova
Title: On mixture failure rate ordering
Abstract: Mixtures of increasing failure rate distributions (IFR) can decrease at least in some intervals of time. Usually this property can be observed asymptotically as time tends to infinity. This is due to the fact that the mixture failure rate is ‘bent down’ compared with the corresponding unconditional expectation of the baseline failure rate, which was proved previously for some specific cases. We generalize this result and discuss the “weakest populations are dying first” property, which leads to the change in the failure rate shape. We also consider the problem of mixture failure rate ordering for the ordered mixing distributions. Two types of stochastic ordering are analyzed: ordering in the likelihood ratio sense and ordering in variances when the means are equal.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rasmus Hoffmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does the socioeconomic mortality gradient interact with age? Evidence from US survey data and Danish register data
Abstract: The aim of our paper is to provide an answer to the questions if and why social differences in health and mortality decrease with age. Most research confirms this decrease but the reasons for it and the role of unobserved heterogeneity are unknown. The data used for our analysis come from the US Health and Retirement Study (n=9376) and from the Danish Demographic Database (Denmark’s population above age 58). They offer detailed information about SES and health information. The technique of event-history-analysis is used, and frailty models address mortality selection. A new method is developed to consider systematic difference in the change of average frailty over age between social groups. SES differentials in mortality converge with age in Denmark but not in the US. In both countries, they converge strongly with decreasing health. When controlled for health, the differences are stable across age in both countries. This means that worsening health levels social mortality differences and not increasing age. Controlling for mortality selection removes the converging pattern over age.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, USA, health, mortality, old age, socio-economic differentials, socio-economic status
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Svetlana V. Ukraintseva
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic progress as cancer risk factor. I: Puzzling facts of cancer epidemiology
Abstract: The increase in cancer burden in developed countries refers to three major causes: population aging, an increase in the cancer incidence rate, and an improvement in the survival of cancer patients. Among these reasons, only the increase in the cancer incidence rate is a negative factor that could be really managed to decrease cancer burden; it, thus, urgently needs explanation and action to develop adequate cancer prophylactics. We have conducted a comparative analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates in different countries of the world for different time periods. The typical age-trajectory of overall cancer incidence rate (for both sexes and all cancers combined) is characterized by a peak in early childhood, low risk in youth, increasing risk afterwards, and a leveling-out or even a decline in cancer risk for the oldest old. Patterns of age-specific cancer mortality resemble the incidence rate patterns; however, mortality is commonly lower and its curve shifts towards higher age. This shift could be due to a time lag between the age of cancer diagnosis and death from the disease.  Analysis of time and place differences in the cancer incidence rate revealed that the overall cancer risk is higher in more developed regions as compared with less developed ones, and that until recently it increased over time along with economic progress. The proportions of separate cancer sites within the overall cancer morbidity differ between more and less developed regions, and their change over time is also linked to economic development. Surprisingly, cancer incidence and mortality rates exhibit different time trends. This divergence is most probably related to the substantial improvement in the survival of cancer patients observed in the last 50 years in developed countries. This improved survival has decreased cancer mortality but not its incidence, which has increased. This suggests that in developed countries cancer treatment has seen much more substantial progress than cancer prophylaxis, which has hardly seen positive results for the majority of human cancers (with a few exceptions). In our second paper we discuss possible explanations of the link between economic progress and the increase in the overall cancer risk.   Key words: cancer incidence rate, age-patterns, time trends, place differences, economic progress
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Svetlana V. Ukraintseva
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic progress as cancer risk factor. II: Why is overall cancer risk higher in more developed countries?
Abstract: Analysis of data on cancer incidence rates in different countries at different time periods revealed positive association between overall cancer risk and economic progress. Typical explanations of this phenomenon involve improved cancer diagnostics and elevated exposure to carcinogens in industrial countries. Here we provide evidence from human and experimental animal studies suggesting that some other factors associated with high economic development and Western life style may primarily increase the proportion of susceptible to cancer individuals in a population and thus contribute to elevated cancer risks in industrial countries. These factors include (but not limited to):  (i) better medical and living conditions that “relax” environmental selection and increase share of individuals prone to chronic inflammation; (ii) several medicines and foods that are not carcinogenic themselves but affect the metabolism of established carcinogens; (iii) nutrition enriched with growth factors; (iv) delayed childbirth. The latter two factors may favor an increase in both cancer incidence rate and longevity in a population. This implies the presence of a trade-off between cancer and aging: factors that postpone aging may simultaneously enhance organism’s susceptibility to several cancers.  Key words: cancer risk, individual susceptibility, economic progress, aging
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Veronica Esaulova
Title: Asymptotic behavior of mixture failure rates
Abstract: Mixtures of increasing failure rate distributions (IFR) can decrease at least in some intervals of time. Usually this property is observed asymptotically as time tends to infinity , which is due to the fact that a mixture failure rate is ‘bent down’, as the weakest populations are dying out first. We consider a survival model, generalizing a very well known in reliability and survival analysis additive hazards, proportional hazards and accelerated life models. We obtain new explicit asymptotic relations for a general setting and study specific cases. Under reasonable assumptions we prove that asymptotic behavior of the mixture failure rate depends only on the behavior of the mixing distri-bution in the neighborhood of the left end point of its support and not on the whole mixing distribution.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Shocks in homogeneous and heterogeneous populations
Abstract: A system subject to a point process of shocks is considered. Shocks occur in accordance with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Different criterions of system failures are discussed in a homogeneous case. Two natural settings are analyzed. Heterogeneity is modeled by an unobserved univariate random variable (frailty). It is shown that reliability (safety) analysis for a heterogeneous case can differ dramatically from that for a homogeneous setting. A shock burn-in procedure for a heterogeneous population is described. The corresponding bounds for the failure rates are obtained.
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna V. Semenchenko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir N. Anisimov
Author-Name: James R. Carey
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Season of birth influences life span of Mediterranean fruit flies, rats and mice
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gebremariam Woldemicael
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Evidence of recent fertility decline in Eritrea: an analysis of trends and determinants
Abstract: This paper contributes to an improved understanding of the recent fertility decline in Eritrea and the possible factors underlying it. Based on data from the 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), it offers increased clarity as to whether the recent decline indicates the onset of a long-term fertility transition or if it is merely a short-term response to the border conflict with Ethiopia (mid-1998-2000). Various methods, including period trend analyses by age and parity, cohort fertility analysis, and multivariate statistical methods, are used to assess the extent of the decline and to identify major contributors to it. The evidence from this study indicates that fertility decline has started in Eritrea and that it has occurred in urban and rural areas, and in every region of the country. The decline is evident across all reproductive ages and birth orders, but is stronger among older mothers and for higher-order births. A prolonged spacing of births, cessation of further childbearing, and delayed age at marriage are the main contributors to the overall fertility decline. The study also reveals that the fertility decline started in the mid-1990s, well before the conflict, but it was faster during the peak years of the border conflict (1999-2000). This suggests that the reduction in fertility is not primarily an outcome of the border conflict (nor a temporary phenomenon), but that it might be the beginning of a long-term fertility transition, which was then accelerated by the border war and the associated social and economic crisis.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Eritrea, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ann-Zofie Duvander
Title: Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden
Abstract: In Sweden, parents receive a parental-leave allowance of a high percentage of their pre-birth salary for about a year in connection with any birth. (The percentage has changed over time, as has the period for which it is paid. For a birth that appears in 2005, parents get 80% of the salary for thirteen months.) If they space their births sufficiently closely, they avoid a reduction in the allowance caused by any reduced income earned between the births. The gain is popularly called a “speed premium”. After some precursors in legal practice, this rule was made statutory in 1980 and the “eligibility interval” was then set to 24 months. In 1986, it was extended to more attainable thirty months. In previous work we have displayed a corresponding speed-up effect in childbearing for Swedish-born women. This change in behavior is of general interest since it is clear evidence of a causal effect of a policy change on childbearing behavior. In the present paper, we study how this change in behavior was adopted in different social strata of the Swedish population. We examine whether the speed-up of childbearing differed by educational attainment and by country of origin, to see whether some social groups reacted faster or more strongly to the policy change than others. We cannot find any important difference in the reaction to the introduction of the “speed premium” between educational groups of Swedish-born parents. Similarly, we find no important difference in the mode of reaction between Swedish-born women and Nordic immigrants to the country. By contrast, immigrants from non-Nordic countries hardly seem to have reacted to the “speed premium”.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, childbearing
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sutay Yavuz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey
Abstract: During the last two decades, Turkey entered into the last phase of its demographic transition. The latest nationwide Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) reveals that the current TFR is close to reproduction level, with a wide range of west-east regional disparity. The purpose of this study is to examine important determinants of third-birth intensities of two-child mothers by applying event-history analysis to retrospective survey data. Some of the basic socioeconomic characteristics of women and their first marriages – related to the cultural context of fertility behavior – are investigated with hazard regression models. We demonstrate that the third-birth intensities differ considerably by mother tongue of the woman. Turkish-speaking women who read easily and who were employed and covered by social security before their first marriage had the lowest transition rate from second to third child. In contrast, Kurdish women who could not read and who did not work had the highest third-birth risk. While the fertility decline among Turkish women has been constant for two decades, the fertility remains high among illiterate Kurdish women, who can be classified as laggards in the Turkey’s fertility transition.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Turkey, family dynamics, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gebremariam Woldemicael
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Teenage childbearing and child health in Eritrea
Abstract: Data from the 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) are used to examine teenage childbearing and its health consequences. Bivariate analysis is used to calculate trends and differentials in teenage childbearing. Logistic and Cox hazard models are employed to examine the health impact of teenage childbearing on mothers and their children. Teenage childbearing is high in Eritrea, where around half of all women aged 19 have already been pregnant with their first child. Nearly all first births among teenagers occur within marriage. A decline in teenage childbearing is evident over the period 1995-2002. If the mother is a teenager when she gives birth, particularly if she is under 18, she can expect worse prenatal medical care, an increased risk of low birth weight and higher child mortality compared to an older mother. The effect of age of mothers is significant even when controlling for sociodemographic factors. Strategies designed to reduce the health effecs of teenage childbearing should address both maternal age and behavioral factors.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christin Schröder
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohabitation in Italy: do parents matter?
Abstract: Over the last two decades, Europe has witnessed the spreading of a new phenomenon: cohabitation. Whereas this modern living arrangement has become relatively widespread in most European countries, it has been rather hesitant in developing in Italy. The welfare state structure of this country, a high rate of unemployment, and tight housing is hampering the diffusion of cohabitation. Researchers so far have assumed that traditionally strong family ties between parents and their adult children have been responsible for the slow spread of extramarital unions. Our research, however, produces different results: There is evidence that the educational degree of the mother influences to a large extent the transition to cohabitation of women in Italy. Using the Indagine longitudinale sulle famiglie italiane (ILFI) of 1997 and 1999, we estimate multiplicative intensity models for the transition to (i) cohabitation as first relationship and (ii) direct marriage of women in Italy. Referring to our findings and to recent research on cohabitation in general, we develop two sets of interview guidelines for semi-structured interviews with cohabiting and married women (who experienced a previous cohabitation) in Italy. The interviews will be conducted in Italian, so the guidelines are in Italian as well. Our first pilot interview indicates that the second demographic transition is more advanced in northern Italy than the current literature would lead one to expect.
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, cohabitation, event history analysis, qualitative methods
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Margarete C. Kulik
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The emergence of cohabitation as a first union and its later stability: the case of Hungarian women
Abstract: With the transition of the 1990s in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the demographic behavior of their populations has changed drastically. This paper focuses on Hungary where some of these developments like falling marriage rates were evident even before 1990. We examine the emergence of cohabitation as a first union and the stability of such relationships. Are they rather transformed into marriage or do they end in dissolution? How long do Hungarian woman stay in these unions? In addition to some descriptive statistics we apply event history analysis because this allows us to study the impact of individual-level characteristics on such choices. The data used is the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey collected around November 2001. The analysis shows that there are marked differences in behavior between periods and that factors like pregnancy or employment do influence the decision for cohabitation as well as its further development.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Hungary
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katy Streso
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco Lagona
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Hidden Markov random field and FRAME modelling for TCA-image analysis
Abstract: Tooth Cementum Annulation (TCA) is an age estimation method carried out on thin cross sections of the root of human teeth. Age is computed by adding the tooth eruption age to the count of annual incremental lines that are called tooth rings and appear in the cementum band. Algorithms to denoise and segment the digital image of the tooth section are considered a crucial step towards computer-assisted TCA. The approach pursued in this paper relies on modelling the images as hidden Markov random fields, where gray values are assumed to be pixelwise conditionally independent and normally distributed, given a hidden random field of labels. These unknown labels have to be estimated to segment the image. To account for long-range dependence among the observed values and for periodicity in the placement of tooth rings, the Gibbsian label distribution is specified by a potential function that incorporates macro-features of the TCA-image (a FRAME model). Estimation of the model parameters is carried out by an EM-algorithm that exploits the mean field approximation of the label distribution. Segmentation is based on the predictive distribution of the labels given the observed gray values. KEYWORDS: EM, FRAME, Gibbs distribution, (hidden) Markov random field, mean field approximation, TCA
Length: 6 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Esther Geisler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Müttererwerbstätigkeit in Ost- und Westdeutschland: eine Analyse mit den Mikrozensen 1991-2002
Abstract: Auf Basis der Daten des Mikrozensus aus den Jahren 1991, 1996 und 2002 gibt dieser Artikel einen Überblick über das Erwerbsverhalten von Frauen mit Kindern in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Neben der Frage der Ost-West-Angleichung stehen sozialstrukturelle Unterschiede im Erwerbsverhalten im Vordergrund der Analyse.  Wir argumentieren insbesondere, dass die familien- und sozialpolitischen Rahmenbedingungen in Deutschland eine Zunahme der sozialstrukturellen Unterschiede in der Erwerbsbeteiligung forciert haben.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, employment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic uncertainty and fertility postponement: evidence from German panel data
Abstract: This paper investigates whether economic uncertainty induces a postponement of family formation. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel which provides longitudinal information of economic uncertainty and fertility for the period 1984 to 2004. We employ ‘objective’ measures of uncertainty (unemployment, fixed-term contract, low income) as well as ‘subjective’ measures (the feeling that the personal economic situation is insecure). Our results suggest that there is no clear indication that economic uncertainty generally leads to a postponement of parenthood.  More highly educated women tend to postpone family formation when unemployed or when they feel insecure about their personal economic situation. However, women with low educational levels accommodate themselves quite readily with motherhood when subject to labor market insecurities.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Luy
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The importance of mortality tempo-adjustment: theoretical and empirical considerations
Abstract: Bongaarts and Feeney’s papers on tempo distortions stirred the world of demographers and divided their community into tempo supporters and tempo opponents. The number of scholars following the tempo approach in fertility continues to grow, whereas tempo-adjustment in mortality still is generally rejected. This rejection is irrational in principle, as the basic idea behind the tempo approach is independent of the kind of demographic event. Whereas tempoadjustments in the TFR mainly lead to higher estimates on the hypothetical family size under current fertility conditions, this paper shows that tempo-adjustments in life expectancy can provide a very different picture of current mortality conditions compared to conventional life expectancy. An application of the Bongaarts and Feeney method to the analysis of the mortality gap between western and eastern Germany yields remarkable results: The differences in survival conditions between the two regions still are considerably higher than generally expected, and the survival gap between the two entities began to narrow some years later than trends in conventional life expectancy suggest. Since life expectancy without adjustment for tempo effects is one of the demographic tools most frequently used to analyze mortality, the conclusion is that we may need to revise our current knowledge of mortality trends and the driving factors behind them.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2005
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2005-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2005-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2005-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: David Alich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The third child: a comparison between West Germany and Norway
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to provide insights into third-birth dynamics in West Germany and Norway. Since the third-birth propensity between both countries differs remarkably, we seek to address the following questions in this paper: What are the characteristics of mothers with two and three children? What are the differences in third-birth dynamics between Norway and West Germany, and how can they be explained? Which factors have a similar influence on Norwegian and West German two-child mothers and their further fertility? We believe that a comparison of third-birth behavior between Norway and West Germany is of interest since the two nations are examples of two different European welfare state regimes. Therefore, they can serve as an example to point out the effects of socio-economic characteristics under different societal settings.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Germany/FRG, Norway, Scandinavia, education, fertility, large family, welfare states
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Paul J. Boyle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Thomas Cooke
Author-Name: Vernon Gayle
Author-Name: Clara H. Mulder
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The effect of moving on union dissolution
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of migration and residential mobility on union dissolution among married and cohabiting couples. While there is a large, multi-disciplinary literature looking at the determinants of union dissolution in Europe and North America, the possible impact of geographical mobility has received little attention. This is despite the fact that moving is a stressful life event and that numerous studies suggest that women’s economic well-being and employment suffer from family moves which are usually stimulated by the man’s career. We base our longitudinal analysis on retrospective event-history data from Austria and apply hazard regression. Our results show that couples who move frequently have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution. We argue that frequent moving increases couple stress and union instability through a variety of mechanisms.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, dissolution of marriage, event history analysis, internal migration, residential mobility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On the structural value of children and its implication on intended fertility in Bulgaria
Abstract: Personal networks receive increasing recognition as structural determinants of fertility. However, the network perspective also helps to explain personal motivations for having children. Using theories of interpersonal exchange and of the value of children, it is argued that children can substantively alter and improve their parents’ social networks. Individuals perceive this potential advantageous development as a structural benefit and consider this value in their reproductive decisions. Data from Bulgaria, collected in 2002, support this argument. The intentions of females and males to have a first or second child are positively influenced by at least one structural value. Women’s intentions are promoted by the prospect that a child will bring their parents and relatives closer or will strengthen the bond with the partner. Male’s intentions are closely associated with the expectation that a child will improve their security at old age.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, costs, decision making, fertility determinants, social capital, social network, value of children
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational attainment and ultimate fertility among Swedish women born in 1955-59
Abstract: This is the second of two companion papers addressing the association between educational attainment and fertility for some sixty educational groups of Swedish women, defined according to field of education as well as level of education. The first paper is about childlessness and education, the present one about the mean number of children ever born. We find that ultimate fertility decreases somewhat with an increasing educational level, but its dependence on the field of education is much more impressive. In general, educational groups with relatively little childlessness also have relatively high ultimate fertility, and educational groups with much childlessness have relatively low ultimate fertility. In particular, women educated for the teaching or health-care professions have less childlessness and a higher ultimate fertility than others. Conversely, women with an education for esthetic or (non-teacher) humanist occupations have unusually high fractions childless and low ultimate fertility. Women with religious educations stand out by having very high fractions childless but quite ordinary mean ultimate fertility nevertheless; such women have very little childbearing outside of marriage. Women with research degrees have remarkably ordinary childbearing behavior; they do not forego motherhood to the extent that some theories would predict.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/educational_attainment_and_ultimate_fertility_among_swedish_women_born_in_1955_59_2214
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, education, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Agata V. D´Addato
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility developments in Morocco: progression to third birth
Abstract: Nowadays, throughout Morocco a dynamic process of modernization is embracing fertility and nuptial behaviors, family planning, contraceptive use, the role and status of women in the family as well as in society, and political orientations, challenging the foundations of the patriarchal system. The progression from second to third birth is a crucial step in fertility change during fertility transition since the reduction especially in third and higher-order births maintains fertility decline. For these reasons, the study aims at analyzing the main determinants of third-birth intensities, applying an event-history analysis to the most recent retrospective Moroccan survey data. The findings show that differences among social groups still persist: higher risks of giving birth to the third child characterize women with a lower educational level and experiencing a rural background. Nevertheless, within the framework of the ongoing process of modernization in the country and geared to promote women’s status, all segments of the population are rapidly changing their fertility behaviors. Third-birth fertility appears to decline monotonically for all educational groups. This suggests that the general drop in Morocco is due to general period effects that affect all strata of the population and various composition effects where increasingly large groups join the socio-economic groups that have the lowest fertility. Moreover, the analysis shows no consistent or clear evidence of sex preference among Moroccan mothers in the progression to the third child. There seems to be a slight aversion towards having two girls; however, this tendency admittedly is not statistically significant.
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Morocco, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing
Abstract: Procedures that seek to explain current behavior by future outcomes (anticipatory analysis) constitute a widespread but problematic approach in life-course analysis because they disturb the role of time and the temporal order of events. Nevertheless the practice is often used, not least because it easily produces useful summary measures like the median age at first childbearing and the per cent permanently childless in various educational groups, defined by ultimate attainment. We use an empirical example to demonstrate the issues involved and to propose an alternative "non-anticipatory" research strategy, which, however, does not equally easily provide summary measures. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, fertility by educational attainment)
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 2: Marriage and first birth
Abstract: In the second part of these reflections, we use the connection between marriage and first childbearing to demonstrate further issues involved in anticipatory analysis. We show that an anticipatory approach cannot be used to represent intentionality: People may marry with the intention of having a child, but the analyst should be weary of using anticipatory analysis to pick that up. (Keywords: anticipatory analysis, conditioning on the future, intentionality, marriage and first childbearing)
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hans-Martin von Gaudecker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lifetime earnings and life expectancy
Abstract: We estimate remaining life expectancy at age 65 using a very large sample of male German pensioners. Our analysis is entirely nonparametric. Furthermore, the data enable us to compare life expectancy in eastern and western Germany conditional on a measure of socio-economic status. Our findings show a lower bound of almost fifty percent (six years) on the difference in remaining life expectancy between the lowest and the highest socio-economic group considered. Within groups, we find similar values for East and West. Our analysis contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, Germany is clearly underrepresented in differential mortality studies. Second, we are able to use a novel measure of lifetime earnings as a proxy for socio-economic status that remains valid for retired people. Third, the comparison of eastern and western Germany may provide some interesting insights for transformation countries.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, life expectancy, pensioners, socio-economic differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria A. Shkolnikova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Blake Aber
Author-Name: Maxine Weinstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Luobov´ Kravtsova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Svetlana A. Shalnova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Objective sleep duration and health in elderly Russians
Abstract: Objectives - We examine the relationship between sleep duration and health in the high mortality context of Russia.  Methods - Night and daytime sleep durations are based on self-reports and 24-hour heart rate trends (Holter monitoring). The sample of 201 individuals (Holter data for 185) is drawn from the Moscow Lipid Research Clinics cohort, followed up since 1975-77. Field-work occurred in 2002-03.  Results - Although objective and reported mean sleep are similar, there are significant intra-individual differences. Significant associations are found between objective sleep and health: longer sleep corresponds to lower grip strength, poorer self-rated health and immediate recall, and higher mortality risk score. No significant relationships are found for subjective sleep.  Conclusions - We provide the first evidence of an association between long sleep and worse health outcomes among elderly Russians. Predictive power increases if objective sleep measures are used, a consideration which is especially important in small studies. 
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family policies and fertility in Europe: fertility policies at the intersection of gender policies, employment policies and care policies
Abstract: This article explores the relationship between family policies, fertility, employment and care. It suggests that similar family policies are likely to exert different effects in different contexts. It argues that a proper assessment of effects of family policies needs to take the combined spectrum of gender relations, welfare-state structures, and labor-market development into account.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family policies, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility change in Egypt: from second to third birth
Abstract: Fertility patterns in countries on the northern shore of the Mediterranean have lowest-low fertility and are very different from those in the South-East of the basin. Recently, however, fertility decline has been spreading rapidly in the latter region. This paper focuses on Egypt, a country that notwithstanding an advanced stage of socio-demographic transition has shown near stagnation in the reduction of fertility levels in the last decade. The first phase of the fertility transition generally has been marked by an increase in the age at marriage; in the long run, however, it will be the diffusion of the smaller family that plays the major role in countries of advanced transition, such as Egypt. The study aims at analyzing the main determinants of the third-birth intensities of Egyptian two-child mothers, applying event-history analysis to the most recent retrospective survey data available for the country. The study’s results show that there are still persistent fertility differential among the country’s social groups. The diffusion of urban-type norms, however, makes crowded and complex household types less feasible to maintain, possibly leading to a convergence in fertility levels to the northern Mediterranean countries. The study also reveals that the preference for a son is weakening among women who have completed secondary education. The findings point to a further decline in the number of large families in the near future; a decline that is intimately associated with the current fertility transition and the promotion of female emancipation.
Length: 15 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/15/18
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Egypt, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kirill F. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Forecasts of cohort mortality after age 50
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Charles F. Westoff
Title: Religion, religiousness and fertility in the U.S. and in Europe
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, USA, fertility, religion
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Sardon
Title: First birth trends in developed countries: a cohort analysis
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: cohort analysis, first birth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: René Houle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regularities and peculiarities of birth schedules in industrialized countries: an analysis of FFS data
Abstract: Inter-individual diversity of women according to birth numbers (quantum) and birth spacing (tempo) are important for understanding of fertility regimes. Elsewhere, we have shown that diversity with respect to fertility quantum is increasing from older to younger cohorts. The present study looks at tempo dimension by decomposing the diversity of birth schedules. The data set contains pooled FFS data from 19 industrialized countries and covers 11124 women aged 40-44 at survey. The analyses include descriptive characteristics of birth schedules, their classification by cluster analysis, and the identification of some of the underlying factors by two types of regression analyses. The first of them is a multinomial logistic regression linking types of birth schedules with characteristics of women at the time of interview. The second includes event-history analyses examining the transition to second and third conception (leading to birth), where time since previous birth is combined with the current values of the covariates. Age at first birth is a major component of inter-individual differences in birth schedules and it largely determines their clustering. Distributions of second, third, and fourth births over time since the previous births are very similar to each other. The median length of birth intervals is 3-3.5 years and 75% of births occur within 5-6 years after the previous delivery. One cluster stands out of this regularity as it is characterized by long last birth interval of about 11 years. Age distributions of fertility for women from this cluster are bimodal and their shape points at unexpectedly “renewed” fertility careers. Additional births produced by the phenomenon compose about 6% of all births. Regression analyses show that the long last birth interval is associated with new partnerships. Some influence of contraceptive failure can not be excluded, too. More in-depth research is needed to learn about the dynamic factors of birth schedules and particularly about the relationship between entering new partnerships and childbearing.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, age distribution, birth spacing, fertility, fertility surveys
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karin Böttcher
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Scheidung in Ost- und Westdeutschland: der Einfluss der Frauenerwerbstätigkeit auf die Ehestabilität
Abstract: Dieser Beitrag vergleicht die Ehestabilität ost- und westdeutscher Frauen vor der Wiedervereinigung im Jahr 1990. Es wird untersucht, in welchem Ausmaß sich die Frauen beider Länder in Bezug auf das Risiko, eine erste Scheidung zu erfahren, unterschieden haben und auf welche Faktoren diese Unterschiede zurückzuführen sind. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei der Einfluss der Frauenerwerbstätigkeit auf die Ehestabilität. Während der DDR, im Hinblick auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung der Frau, ein egalitäres Rollenverständnis zugrunde lag, unterstützten die gesellschaftlichen und institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen der BRD das traditionelle Modell eines männlichen Hauptverdieners. Die Gegensätzlichkeit dieser Rollenmuster ermöglicht es, zu untersuchen, ob hinsichtlich des Zusammenhangs von Frauenerwerbstätigkeit und Ehestabilität zwischen traditionell und egalitär ausgerichteten Gesellschaften Unterschiede bestehen. Die empirischen Analysen auf der Basis des deutschen „Family and Fertility Survey“ (1992) zeigen ein signifikant höheres Scheidungsrisiko ostdeutscher Frauen, welches in erster Linie auf die geringere Verbreitung religiöser Bindungen, den höheren Anteil von Frauen, die bereits eine Scheidung in der Elterngeneration erlebt haben und die höhere Frauenerwerbsbeteiligung in der DDR zurückzuführen ist. In beiden Ländern war die Erwerbstätigkeit der Frau mit einem höheren Scheidungsrisiko verbunden, der Effekt war in der BRD jedoch stärker als in der DDR. Diese Untersuchung liefert somit Beweise für einen schwächeren negativen Zusammenhang von Frauenerwerbstätigkeit und Ehestabilität in Gesellschaften, in denen egalitäre anstelle von traditionellen Rollenerwartungen dominieren.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany/FRG, Germany/GDR, dissolution of marriage, divorce, labor force participation, women
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andreas Klärner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Perceptions of job instability and the prospects of parenthood. A comparison between Eastern and Western Germany
Abstract: The paper contributes to a debate on recent fertility developments in eastern and western Germany as well as on the lacking convergence of family formation patterns between the two regions. We address the relationship between the perception of instable employment careers and economic insecurity in relation to family formation intentions. We conduct a thematic and interpretative analysis of problem-centered interviews with stratified sub-samples of eastern and western Germans in their late twenties. Our findings show considerable differences between the two regions. In western Germany stable employment precedes family formation following a rigid sequential pattern, whereas in eastern Germany employment stability and family formation are conceived and practiced as parallel investments
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/job_insecurity_and_the_timing_of_parenthood_a_comparison_between_eastern_and_western_germany_2760
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family formation, labor force participation, qualitative methods, social change
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ralf K. Himmelreicher
Author-Name: Hans-Martin von Gaudecker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Nutzungsmöglichkeiten von Daten der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung über das  Forschungsdatenzentrum der Rentenversicherung (FDZ-RV)
Abstract: Dieser Beitrag beschreibt an Hand des Projektes ‚Differentielle Sterblichkeit’, in welcher Form die Daten der Rentenversicherung über das Forschungsdatenzentrum der Rentenversicherung (FDZ-RV) genutzt werden können: Zunächst wurde der Scientific Use File (SUF) Demografie genutzt. An Hand dieses kommentierten Datensatzes aus dem Datenangebot des FDZ-RV ist es möglich, die Charakteristika der Datensätze aus dem Bereich Rentenstatistik kennen zu lernen. Sind insbesondere höhere Fallzahlen und spezielle Differenzierungen von Merkmalen wichtig, dann können Analysen auf Gastwissenschaftler-Arbeitsplätzen mit speziellen Datensätzen eine Alternative darstellen. Als dritte Form der Datennutzung wurde hier das kontrollierte Fernrechnen, bei dem Wissenschaftler keinen Kontakt mit den Daten haben, praktiziert.  Die Befunde, die das Projekt ‚Differentielle Sterblichkeit’ ermitteln konnte, verweisen darauf, dass auf Sterbetafeln basierende Sterblichkeitsanalysen sehr hohe Fallzahlen benötigen, die von Bevölkerungsumfragen nicht erreicht werden können. Im Ergebnis zeigen die Berechnungen für die fernere Lebenserwartung im Alter von 65 Jahren für in Deutschland lebende  Männer, dass die mittlere Lebenserwartung bei 15,7 Jahren und somit auf einem Niveau mit den Berechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes liegt. Bezieht man das Lebensarbeitseinkommen in die Analysen ein, dann zeigt sich eine positive statistisch signifikante Assoziation zwischen Lebenseinkommen und Lebenserwartung. Die  Lebenserwartungen variieren allerdings bei der überwiegenden Mehrheit der Männer lediglich plus minus eineinhalb Jahre um die durchschnittliche Lebenserwartung.   
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, differential mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karsten Hank
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Understanding parental gender preferences in advanced societies: lessons from Sweden and Finland
Abstract: Extending recent research on parental gender preferences in the Nordic countries, this study uses unique register data from Finland and Sweden (1971-1999) that provide us with the opportunity to compare childbearing dynamics and possible underlying sex preferences among natives and national minorities, namely Finnish-born immigrants in Sweden and members of the Swedish-speaking minority in Finland. Moreover, our Swedish data allow us to investigate regional and educational differences in child-sex specific fertility behavior of two-child mothers in 1981-1999. For Finland, we observe a continuous boy preference among the national majority and the Swedish-speaking minority as reflected in higher third-birth rates of mothers of two girls than of mothers of two boys. Evidence of similar preferences is found for Finnish-born migrants in Sweden, where the native-born population appears to have developed a girl preference, though. In all cases, we also observe clear indications of a preference for having at least one child of each sex. Generally speaking, our findings support an interpretation of parental gender preferences as a longstanding cultural phenomenon, related to country of childhood socialization rather than language group. Our analysis of regional and educational differentials in Sweden reveals no evidence which supports diffusion theories of persistence and change in parents’ sex preferences for children.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, Sweden, fertility, sex preference
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lesia Nedoluzhko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Migration and first-time parenthood: evidence from Kyrgyzstan
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the reproductive behavior of young women and men in Kyrgyzstan, with special emphasis on the demographic adjustment strategies of internal migrants in this post-Soviet Central Asian republic. We employ event-history techniques to data from the “Marriage, Fertility, and Migration” survey conducted in northern Kyrgyzstan in 2005 to estimate relative risks of becoming a parent. We demonstrate to what extent migration is part of the family building process and how it is related to elevated parenthood risks shortly after resettlement. We gain additional insight by information on factors such as the geographical destination of migration, and of retrospectively stated motives for the move. In addition, we reveal clear ethnic differences in the timing of entry into parenthood in Kyrgyzstan.
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Kyrgyzstan, fertility, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On engineering reliability concepts and biological aging
Abstract: Some stochastic approaches to biological aging modeling are studied. We assume that an organism acquires a random resource at birth. Death occurs when the accumulated dam-age (wear) exceeds this initial value, modeled by the discrete or continuous random vari-ables. Another source of death of an organism is also taken into account, when it occurs as a consequence of a shock or of a demand for energy, which is a generalization of the Strehler-Mildwan’s model (1960). Biological age based on the observed degradation is also defined. Finally, aging properties of repairable systems are discussed. We show that even in the case of imperfect repair, which is certainly the case for organisms, aging slows down with age and eventually can even fade out. This presents another possible explanation for the human mortality rate plateaus.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marit Rønsen
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertilität, Familiengründung und Familienerweiterung in den nordischen Ländern
Abstract: Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Geburtenentwicklung in den nordischen Ländern seit den 1970er Jahren und den Wirkungen familienpolitischer Maßnahmen auf die Fertilitätsentwicklung. Basis der Analysen bilden Auswertungen harmonisierter Registerdaten Dänemarks, Finnlands, Norwegens und Schwedens. Der erste Teil des Beitrags bietet einen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Fertilität in den nordischen Ländern nach Alter und Geburtenordnung. Dies erlaubt, gemeinsame von länderspezifischen Entwicklungen zu unterscheiden. Daran schließt sich eine Darstellung des Zusammenhangs zwischen Bildungsrichtungen und Fertilität. Im letzten Teil des Beitrages erörtern wir, welchen Einfluss familienpolitische Maßnahmen, insbesondere ein einkommensbezogenes Elterngeld, ein auf den Geburtenabstand bezogenes Elterngeld, sowie die Inanspruchnahme der Elternzeit durch Väter auf Geburtenverhalten und Geburtenentwicklung in den einzelnen Ländern hatten.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, family policies, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Veronica Esaulova
Title: On asymptotic failure rates in bivariate frailty competing risks models
Abstract: A bivariate competing risks problem is considered for a rather general class of survival models. The lifetime distribution of each component is indexed by a frailty parameter. Under the assumption of conditional independence of components the correlated frailty model is considered. The explicit asymptotic formula for the mixture failure rate of a system is derived. It is proved that asymptotically the remaining lifetimes of components tend to be independent in the defined sense. Some simple examples are discussed.
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Settlement size and fertility in the Nordic countries
Abstract: There is a growing body of literature that looks at the causes of below-replacement fertility in developed countries. While the variation in childbearing patterns across countries and between socio-economic groups within a country has been studied in detail, little is known about the differences in fertility patterns across settlements within a country. A few recent studies suggest that there are persistent differentials between high- and low-fertility settlements in contemporary Europe. This study examines fertility variation across settlements in four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data. We first examine annual total and parity-specific fertility across settlement type from the mid-1970s to the early twenty-first century. We proceed to study the relative contribution of the socio-economic characteristics of the local populations and the characteristics of the settlements to this variation, using hazard regression models.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, event history analysis, fertility, urbanization
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Der Einfluss der ‚Wende’ auf bildungsspezifische Fertilitätsunterschiede in Ostdeutschland
Abstract: Auf Basis der Daten des Mikrozensus liefert dieser Artikel einen Überblick über den Einfluss der Bildung auf die Familiengründung in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Seit der Wende sind die bildungsspezifischen Unterschiede im Geburtenverhalten in Ost-deutschland größer geworden. Diese Differenzierung fällt jedoch für die jeweiligen Kohorten sehr unterschiedlich aus. Besonders die Kohorten 1966-1969 zeigen ein auffälliges Muster. Frauen dieser Jahrgänge, die einen POS-Abschluss hatten, haben meist noch zu DDR-Zeiten und damit relativ früh das erste Kind bekommen. Frauen mit einem Abitur haben nach der Wende – meist in einem relativ hohen Alter – eine Familie gegründet. Die Folge davon ist, dass die Wiedervereinigung die unterschiedlichen Bildungsgruppen zu unterschiedlichen Zeitpunkten in ihren Fertilitätskarrieren getroffen hat, was unmittelbar zu einer Zunahme der bil-dungsspezifischen Variationen im Erstgeburtverhalten geführt hat.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Matysiak
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Beata Nowok
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050
Abstract: Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, Poland experienced a fundamental shift from a communist regime to a democratic regime and entered the European Union in 2004. The political, economic, and social changes that accompanied the transformation had a profound influence on the demographic patterns in this country. International migration has been one of the first consequences of Poland’s entry into the EU, and it is expected to increase in the future. Secondly, the availability of statistics for Poland on past trends is strongly limited. The resulting high uncertainty of future trends should be dealt with systematically, which is an essential part of the stochastic forecast. In this article, we present to the best of our knowledge a first stochastic forecast of the population of Poland. The forecast constitutes a valuable alternative to considering various scenarios that have been applied so far. The forecast results show that the Polish population will constantly decline during the next decades. There is a probability of 50 % that in 2050 the population will number between 27 and 35 millions compared to 38.2 in 2004. Besides, Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. In 45 years, there will be at least 63 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64, and this with a probability of 50 %. A description of the most important limitations to the official Polish demographic statistics and an analysis of past trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are important by-products of this study.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/stochastic_forecast_of_the_population_of_poland_2005_2050_2754
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2006-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Poland, population forecasts
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Magdalena M. Muszynska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Woman’s employment and union disruption in a changing socio-economic context: the case of Russia
Abstract: Drawing on data from new Russian retrospective surveys, this study examines the relationship between women’s employment and the risk of union disruption within both the centrally planned economy and transition period. Our results show that within the two periods, the risk of union dissolution was similar among women who worked and women who did not work. In the transition period, however, differences in the dissolution risk among women existed and were related to the characteristics of the job conducted: occupational status, hours worked and income from side employment activities. Since the collapse of communism, the most discriminating factor between women is the type of ownership of a company, with those who worked for newly established private companies having elevated risk of union dissolution. The results obtained in this study are interpreted in light of the independence effect of women’s employment.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, employment, women
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eugeny L. Soroko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Report on the external validation of the "Education and Employment Survey" on Russia
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, census data, data evaluation, demographic indicators, demographic surveys, economic sectors, fertility rate
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cordula Zabel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Employment experience and first birth in Great Britain
Abstract: This article examines the effect of employment experience on first birth risks in Great Britain. The data used is from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). A positive effect of employment experience on first birth risks is found, in accordance with pre-dictions from economic models of fertility timing. This effect did not differ greatly between educational groups, in contrast to what was expected. Positive effects were found for all educational groups. An especially strong increase in first birth risks was found across the first year of employment spells.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: United Kingdom, fertility determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program
Abstract: The increasing recognition that the study of human behaviors has to take into account the multiple contexts in which they occur has opened a promising research avenue in social sciences. It also presents new challenges, e.g., to complement micro-level surveys with the collection of meaningful contextual data within a common conceptual framework. The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Program aims at responding to the new data demands by providing a comparative collection of around 210 variables on a national and sub-national level, thus complementing the individual-level data collected in the Generations and Gender Survey.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, comparative analysis, data banks
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tatjana Mika
Title: Analysemöglichkeiten des Scientific Use Files "Vollendete Versichertenleben 2004" im Bereich Fertilität und Familie
Abstract: Mit dem „Scientific Use File Vollendete Versichertenleben 2004“ stehen der Forschung erstmalig Prozessdaten zur Verfügung, um das Erwerbs- und Ferti-litätsverhalten von Frauen im Zusammenhang zu analysieren. Dieser Beitrag geht der Frage nach, ob dieser Datensatz geeignet ist, um das Geburtenverhalten in Deutsch-land repräsentativ abzubilden. Zum anderen diskutiert er die Möglichkeiten und Prob-leme, die sich bei der Verwendung der Daten für Fertilitätsanalysen ergeben. Erste Ergebnisse zu den Determinanten des Übergangs zum ersten, zweiten und dritten Kind werden ebenfalls präsentiert.
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Magdalena M. Muszynska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Migration and union dissolution in a changing socio-economic context: the case of Russia
Abstract: A growing body of literature looks at the consequences of family migration from a gender perspective. The studies show that women’s economic well-being and employment suffer from family migration, which is usually stimulated by the career of the male earner in the family. This study extends current research on the subject by examining the effect of family migration on union dissolution. We use the event-history data of two retrospective surveys from Russia and apply hazard regression. The analysis shows that couples who move frequently over long distances have a significantly higher risk of union dissolution than couples who do not move or move only once. Our further analysis reveals that the risk of disruption for frequent movers is high when the migrant woman has a job. Frequent migrants had a high risk of union dissolution in the Soviet period but not so during the post-Soviet socio-economic transition. We argue that frequent moving increases union instability through a variety of mechanisms, the effect of which may vary across socio-economic contexts, however.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, divorce, event history analysis, internal migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Roland Rau
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Eugeny L. Soroko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: 10 years after Kannisto: further evidence for mortality decline at advanced ages in developed countries
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nadja Milewski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: First child of immigrant workers and their descendants in West Germany: interrelation of events, disruption, or adaptation?
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of immigration on the transition to motherhood among women from Turkey, Italy, Spain, Greece, and the former Yugoslavia in West Germany. We apply a hazard regression analysis to data of the German Socio-Economic Panel study. We distinguish between the first and second immigrant generation. The results show that the transition rates to a first birth of first-generation immigrants are elevated shortly after they move country. We trace the elevated birth risks shortly following the immigration back to an interrelation of events – these are migration, marriage, and first birth. We do not find evidence of a fertility-disruption effect after immigration. Our analysis indicates that second-generation immigrants are more adapted to the lower fertility levels of West Germans than their mothers’ generation. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer)
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Luy
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paola Di Giulio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The impact of health behaviors and life quality on gender differences in mortality
Abstract: Since gender-specific mortality differences are known a great deal of research has been conducted on this subject. The resulting hypotheses for explaining male excess mortality can be sub-divided into two basic categories: the biological approach (focusing on biological and genetic factors) and the non-biological approach (focusing on behavioral and environmental factors). It has been proven impossible to explain the observed trends in mortality differences between women and men by relying solely on one of the two groups of theories. Recent studies indicate that the majority of the female survival advantage can be attributed to gender behaviors while the impact of biological factors seems to be limited to 1-2 years in life expectancy at birth. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of gender-specific health behaviors and gender differences in life quality using micro level data for Western Germany.   
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, life styles, mortality, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dorothea Rieck
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Transition to second birth - the case of Russia
Abstract: This study examines the determinants of second births in Russia before and during the economic and political transition. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and apply the method of hazard regression, we find a strong period effect: whereas the second birth risk increased in the 1980s, it decreased significantly after 1992. This effect remains even after controlling for individual characteristics. We argue that the dramatic increase in economic and social uncertainties after the collapse of the communist system in Russia is responsible for the fertility reduction.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Paola Di Giulio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alessandro Rosina
Title: Intergenerational family ties and the diffusion of cohabitation in Italy
Abstract: Cohabitation has been spreading in the population during the last thirty years, and this is one of the most striking aspects of wider social changes that have taken place throughout the industrialized world. However, this change did not take place uniformly across Europe.  The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate around the compatibility of cohabitation experiences with the Italian cultural context. Using an individual-level diffusion approach we obtain results that are consistent with the crucial role that family ties play in the choice of cohabitation in place of (or before) marriage. 
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/intergenerational_family_ties_and_the_diffusion_of_cohabitation_in_italy_2641
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, cohabitation, diffusion of innovations
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michael S. Rendall
Author-Name: Ryan Admiraal
Author-Name: Alessandra De Rose
Author-Name: Paola Di Giulio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mark S. Handcock
Author-Name: Filomena Racioppi
Title: Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling
Abstract: In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: David N. Koons
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Randall Holmes
Author-Name: James B. Grand
Title: Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates or initial conditions
Abstract: Many studies have examined Keyfitz’s population momentum, a special case of inertia in long-term population size resulting from demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate.  Yet, population inertia can be produced by any demographic perturbation (i.e., not just perturbations that produce stationary growth).  Insight into applied population dynamics, population ecology, and life history evolution has been gained using perturbation analysis of the population growth rate.  However, a similar, generalized framework for perturbation analysis of population inertia has not been developed.  We derive general formulas for the sensitivity of population inertia to change in any vital rate or initial population structure.  These formulas are readily computable, and we provide examples of their potential use in life history and applied studies of populations.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-040.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-040
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: age distribution, life histories, mathematical demography, migration flow, pest control, stable population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-040
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-040

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Michalski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Inverse problems in demography and biodemography
Abstract: Inverse problems play important role in science and engineering. Estimation of boundary conditions on the temperature distribution inside a metallurgical furnace, reconstruction of tissue density inside body on plane projections obtained with x-rays are examples. The similar problems exist in demography in the form of projection and estimation of population age distributions and age-specific mortality rates. The problem of residual demography is estimation of demographic process in wild nature on its manifestation in marked subjects with unobserved age, which again is inverse problem. The article presents examples and the ways of solution the inverse problems in demography and biodemography, discusses the ways of improving results by combination of demographic and genetic data.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-041.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sergey G. Rudnev
Author-Name: Alexei A. Romanyukha
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Modeling of immune life history and body growth: the role of antigen burden
Abstract: In this paper, a recently developed mathematical model of age related changes in population of peripheral T cells (Romanyukha, Yashin, 2003) is used to describe ontogenetic changes of the immune system. The treatise is based on the assumption of linear dependence of antigen load from basal metabolic rate, which, in turn, depends on body mass following the allometric relationship – 3/4 power scaling law (Kleiber, 1932; West, Brown, 2005). Energy cost of antigen burden, i.e. the energy needed to produce and maintain immune cells plus the energy loss due to infectious diseases, is estimated and used as a measure of the immune system effectiveness. The dependence of optimal resource allocation from the parameters of antigen load is studied.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-042.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-042
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-042
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-042

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vassili N. Novoseltsev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James R. Carey
Author-Name: Janna A. Novoseltseva
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Individual fecundity dynamically predicts remaining life expectancy in medflies
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-043.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-043
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-043
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-043

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Kinderlosigkeit, Bildungsrichtung und Bildungsniveau. Ergebnisse einer Untersuchung schwedischer Frauen der Geburtenjahrgänge 1955-59
Abstract: There has been a lot of demographic research concerning the relationship between education and fertility. Most studies, however, focus on the level of education and do not include the field of education. Our paper shows that the field of education serves as a better indicator of a woman’s potential reproductive behavior than the level of education does. Our empirical investigation uses register records containing childbearing and educational information for all Swedish women born 1955-59. We find that childlessness increases with the educational level, but this finding applies only for each educational field. At each educational level there exist great differences in childlessness among women of different educational fields. Our results indicate that studies of the relationship between education and fertility need to include individual as well as institutional and normative aspects in order to reach explanations of the varying effects of education on childbearing behavior. Zusammenfassung: Die Beziehung zwischen Bildung und Fertilität gehört zu den am meisten beforschten Bereichen der Demografie. Dennoch fehlen bislang demografische Untersuchungen, die neben dem Bildungsgrad auch die Bildungsrichtung berücksichtigen. Dieser Beitrag zeigt, dass die Bildungsrichtung ein besserer Indikator für das potentielle Geburtenverhalten einer Frau sein kann als der Bildungsgrad. Auf der Basis schwedischer Registerdaten betrachten wir die Kinderlosigkeit aller schwedischen Frauen der Geburtenjahrgänge 1955-59. Mit steigendem Bildungsgrad nimmt zwar der Anteil kinderlos bleibender Frauen zu; doch gilt dies nur jeweils innerhalb einer Bildungsrichtung. Auch bei gleichem Bildungsniveau variiert der Anteil der Kinderlosen je nach Bildungsrichtung beträchtlich. Diese Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass die Zusammenhänge zwischen Bildung und Fertilität nur durch Forschungsansätze, die neben individuellen auch institutionelle und normative Aspekte von Bildung berücksichtigen, hinreichend erklärt werden können. (childlessness)
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/book_chapters/kinderlosigkeit_bildungsrichtung_und_bildungsniveau_ergebnisse_einer_untersuchung_schwedischer_frauen_2577
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-044.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-044
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, education
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-044
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-044

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Sardon
Title: Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries
Abstract: This paper is the latest in a series initiated in 1999 which investigates childbearing in low fertility countries from a cohort perspective. Principal conclusions: Major changes in childbearing patterns are continuously taking place in almost all countries. Large families with four and more children have all but disappeared. Almost everywhere the two-child family became dominant. Proportions of childless women and of one-child families were increasing among recent cohorts. Childbearing postponement is a virtually universal process in contemporary low-fertility populations. In Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, starting with the 1960s cohorts, changes in age patterns of childbearing have been profound which justifies labeling these as an historic transformation. One indisputable characteristic is that young women are bearing considerably fewer children compared to older cohorts. In particular, the proportions of women having second births in most CEE countries were declining rapidly and these proportions were lower than in western countries. Postponement of childbearing might be nearing cessation in some western countries.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol16/11/16-11.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-045.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-045
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-045
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-045

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The "LifeCourse" model, a competing risk cohort microsimulation model: source code and basic concepts of the generic microsimulation programming language Modgen
Abstract: This paper documents the source code of “LifeCourse”, a simple competing risk microsimulation model initially developed alongside a study on fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia. “LifeCourse” is programmed in the generic microsimulation language Modgen developed at Statistics Canada. In the context of this contribution, the model is introduced step by step as template for other microsimulation applications and as training tool for demographic microsimulation using Modgen.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-046.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-046
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: microsimulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-046
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-046

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annett Fleischer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family, obligations, and migration: the role of kinship in Cameroon
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of family and kin networks on the individual decision to migrate. The study is based on qualitative ethnographic data collected during field research in Cameroon and shows the considerable impact of the extended family on the migrant’s decision to leave Cameroon for Germany. Migrants do not necessarily set out to pursue individual goals.  They are often delegated to leave by authority figures in their extended family. The individual is part of an informal reciprocal system of exchange, which is based on trust, has social consequences, and includes duties and responsibilities for both sides.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-047.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-047
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Cameroon, Germany, decision making, kinship, migration, race relations, remittances
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-047
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-047

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Matysiak
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis
Abstract: Our research objective was to systematise the existing literature on the relation between fertility and women’s employment at the micro-level. Instead of carrying out a traditional literature review, we conducted a meta-analysis. This allowed us to compare estimates from different studies standardised for the country analysed, the method applied, control variables used, or sample selected. We focused on two effects: the impact of work on fertility and the impact of young children on employment entry. First, we found a high variation in the studied effects among the institutional settings, reflecting the existence of a north-south gradient. Second, we observed a significant change in the effects over time. Finally, we demonstrated that a failure to account for the respondent’s social background, partner and job characteristics tends to produce a bias to the estimated effects.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-048.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-048
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-048
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-048

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: David K. Kertzer
Author-Name: Michael White
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Giuseppe Gabrielli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Italy’s path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories
Abstract: The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building.  Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth.  Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/italy_s_path_to_very_low_fertility_the_adequacy_of_economic_and_second_demographic_transition_theories_2855
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2006-049
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, event history analysis, fertility decline, living space
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-049
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-049

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Holger von der Lippe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On the psychological determinants of fertility: a panorama of concepts and approaches, and evidence from eastern Germany
Abstract: In this paper we study the transition to parenthood, analyzing data from three waves of a psychological longitudinal survey from Rostock, eastern Germany. We apply hazard regressions in order to predict the timing of first births of 117 men and 124 women born in 1970 and 1971. Subjects, who were in their 20s during the 1990s, made their family decisions during the most turbulent times of societal transformation in eastern Germany following unification. We hypothesized a crucial relevance of personality traits, coping-styles, and other psychological variables for the prediction of fertility in this context. Results for men show that dispositional self-actualization and internal control-styles as well as a tendency to social withdrawal decrease the probability of fatherhood. For women, dispositional emotional stability and mental health decrease the probability of motherhood, whereas a tendency toward rationalization increases it. We discuss findings in light of the gender-specific life-span development of people’s personality and control behavior.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-050.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-050
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Neue Bundesländer), fertility determinants, first birth, life span, psychology
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-050
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-050

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Paul J. Boyle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does cohabitation prior to marriage raise the risk of marital dissolution and does this effect vary geographically?
Abstract: A number of studies show that premarital cohabitation increases the risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Some argue that this is a consequence of selection effects and that once these are controlled for premarital cohabitation has no effect on dissolution. We extend this research by examining whether the effects of premarital cohabitation on marital dissolution vary across settlements within a country. Using retrospective event-history data from Austria, we model equations for union formation and dissolution jointly to control for unobserved selectivity of cohabiters or non-cohabiters. Our results show that those who cohabit prior to marriage have a higher risk of marital dissolution. However, once selection effects are controlled for, the risks of marital dissolution for those who cohabit prior to marriage are significantly lower than for those who marry directly. We show that strong selection effects relate to both cohabitation and direct marriage and these effects are consistent across all settlements.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-051.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-051
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, divorce, event history analysis, rural areas, urban areas
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-051
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-051

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Paterno
Author-Name: Giuseppe Gabrielli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Agata V. D´Addato
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Travail des femmes, caractéristiques familiales et sociales: le cas du Maroc
Abstract: Le taux d’activité féminine au Maroc, malgré un trend mouvant dans les années entre la fin du XX siècle et le nouveau millénaire n’a pas subi des accroissements remarquables.  Dans ce travail nous mettons en relief quelques facteurs qui expliquent la participation féminine au marché du travail marocain. On poursuit ce but dans une optique comparative «temporelle», en observant l’évolution qui a eu lieu approximativement pendant la dernière décennie, et «spatiale», en distinguant les milieux urbains des milieux ruraux. Dans cette optique, nous traçons en premier lieu le cadre général des caractéristiques sociales, familiales et d’emploi des femmes marocaines, faisant recours aux principales informations officielles produites sur place, malgré leur caractère fragmentaire. Dans la suite du travail, nous utilisons les données issues de deux enquêtes conduites sur le territoire national en 1992 et entre fin 2003 et début 2004, qui s’inscrivent dans le programme international «Demographic and Health Surveys» (DHS). Finalement, des analyses multivariées mettent en lumière les principaux déterminants du désir des Marocaines de faire partie du marché du travail, et les motivations les plus significatives à la base de leur insertion dans un secteur d’activité spécifique. Les analyses effectuées mettent en évidence que la participation féminine au marché du travail marocain reste liée, surtout en milieu rural, à des modèles familiaux traditionnels dans lesquels le rôle des femmes est limité à des fonctions secondaires, souvent en dehors du travail rémunéré. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent aussi que la stabilité substantielle de la participation féminine au marché du travail observée pourrait être considérée plus que comme une «occasion perdue» dans le chemin d’une amélioration du statut des femmes, plutôt comme une étape obligée du processus de leur affranchissement des activités dégradantes d’un système de production arriéré, étape nécessaire afin d’atteindre un niveau de développement global plus élevé. 
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-052.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-052
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Morocco, female employment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-052
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-052

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Caroline Bledsoe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The demography of family reunification: from circulation to substitution in Gambian Spain
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2006
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-053.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2006-053
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Gambia, The, Spain, family demography, family reunification, migration, migration policy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-053
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-053

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Spielauer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elena Koytcheva
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dora Kostova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: First and second births in first and second unions: a decomposition of fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia since the 1989 economic and political transition
Abstract: Following the collapse of the communist regimes in Bulgaria and Russia, the two countries have experienced dramatic fertility decline. The aim of this paper is to examine the individual contribution of various factors that have contributed to the overall drop in first and second births. By means of microsimulation, we isolate the effect of changes observed in first and second birth risks in different life course situations as well as the impact of changes in union formation and dissolution on fertility. The study is based on hazard regression models estimated from GGS data. We find remarkable similarities in first and second birth behavior and changes in these behaviors over time in both countries. However, partnership behavior and trends differ considerably, causing a stronger fertility decline in Bulgaria due to delayed partnership formation. Nevertheless, in Russia unions are increasingly unstable, a process which, according to our findings, leads to longer birth intervals but has almost no impact on final birth outcome.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, Russian Federation, fertility trends, microsimulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Verfahren zur Korrektur der Bevölkerungsbestände der amtlichen Statistik im hohen Alter
Abstract: Mit den Daten der Rentenversicherung lassen sich die Bevölkerungsbestände der amtlichen Statistik im hohen Alter korrigieren. Die Korrektur wird notwendig, da die Mortalitätsschätzung im hohen Alter zu nicht plausiblen Ergebnissen führt. Es zeigt sich, dass die Bevölkerungsfortschreibung der amtlichen Statistik im Alter von 90 Lebensjahren und älter die Bestände überschätzt. Mit dem größer werdenden Abstand zur Volkszählung steigt der Fortschreibungsfehler. Die Ursache liegt mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit in den nicht dokumentierten Abmeldungen insbesondere am Anfang der neunziger Jahre. Der relative Fehler wird für das Jahr 2004 bei Männern West mit 40% und bei Frauen West bis zu 20 % veranschlagt. Im Osten ist der Fehler auf Grund der geringen Abweichungen vernachlässigbar.    Durch die Rekonstruktion mittels „Extinct Generation; Survival Ratio Method“ aus den Sterbefällen und dem Vergleich der Bestände der Rentenversicherung mit den Beständen der Amtlichen Statistik lassen sich Korrekturfaktoren ableiten. Mit Hilfe dieser Korrekturfaktoren ist es möglich, die Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org) für Deutschland in der notwendigen Qualität nach Einzelalter bis in das höchste Lebensalter weiterzuführen.  
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, old age
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Selectivity in higher-order childbearing in Sweden
Abstract: In this note, we present relative risks of giving birth for mothers with different numbers of children. We use Swedish register data and study the propensity to continue the childbearing beyond child number two. We pay special attention to births of those higher orders that are studied only rarely in conventional demographic analyses. As the parity increases to higher numbers, we expect to find some kind of selection so that the group of mothers increasingly consists of very birth prone women. For births after a fourth child, we indeed find such an effect in that the relative risk of giving birth to an additional child then increases with the birth order. In our intensity-regression models, we also check whether this selection effect of increasing birth risks can be picked up by the inclusion of a specific factor for unobserved heterogeneity in the mothers’ propensity to give birth. We find that the positive gradient in the propensity to give birth indeed disappears when such a factor is included into our model.
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility, fertility measurements, selective forces
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans Lundström
Title: Pushing the limit: long-term trends in late fertility in Sweden
Abstract: In this paper we discuss trends in the limits to late childbearing, their determinants and potential implications from an empirical long-term perspective. Although the high levels observed in non-contracepting populations have not been reached, fertility in Europe at ages 40+ and 45+ has increased substantially in recent years. This trend received considerable attention, especially in combination with the emergence of new reproductive technologies and often low levels of general fertility. Nevertheless, physiological studies agree on the fact that age limits to childbearing, at least for women, have not shifted to later ages.  Our empirical analyses of high-quality long-term data from Sweden document an increase in the absolute and relative number of births at ages 40+ and 45+, together with an increase in first birth occurrence-exposure rates at ages close to 40. While extreme age at birth seems to move upwards, evidence for a rectangularization of the transition to motherhood is still weak.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/approaching_the_limit_long_term_trends_in_late_and_very_late_fertility_2538
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2007-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: a life table description of recent trends
Abstract: The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. In addition, we provide information about the status of children within the family and changes in this status. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We use the same approach of life table construction as Andersson and Philipov (2002), thus both studies complement each other and open wider opportunities for international comparison. Life tables are frequently supplemented with graphs of smoothed hazard curves. Complete life tables together with some summary indicators are presented in the Appendix.  Our findings suggest that societal transformation had a stronger impact on the family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness and a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country. 
Length: 59 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, Russian Federation, family formation, fertility, life tables
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Monika A. Mynarska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Meanings and attitudes attached to cohabitation in Poland: qualitative analyses of the slow diffusion of cohabitation among the young generation
Abstract: This study contributes to the understanding of the low level of non-marital cohabitations in Poland at the beginning of the XXI century. We employ interpretative analysis of semi-structured interviews in order to capture the meanings and attitudes associated to non-marital cohabitation by a selected sample of young Poles. Results indicate that although cohabitation has begun to be interpreted as a testing period leading to marriage, attitudes towards it are still very ambiguous. The idealization of marital commitment hinders the spread of informal unions. Understanding the determinants of the low cohabitation rate in Poland enable us to advance grounded hypotheses on its evolution in the near future and, more generally, to illustrate the ways in which local cultures influence the diffusion of behaviors.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol16/17/16-17.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Poland, attitude, cohabitation, qualitative methods
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Núria Empez Vidal
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Social construction of neglect: the case of unaccompanied minors from Morocco to Spain
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Morocco, Spain, children, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anne Genereux
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A review of migration and fertility theory through the lens of African immigrant fertility in France
Abstract: This paper evaluates fertility and migration theory in order to further understand the impact of migration on fertility.  I first analyze the fertility and migration literature separately and then look at the burgeoning literature on the impact of migration on fertility.  As a result, I propose an integrated framework for analyzing the migration-fertility nexus.  Within the fertility context, I use Bongaarts and Watkins concept of social interaction, whereas within the migration context, I draw on Massey’s capitalist transition theory, and Pessar and Mahler’s ‘gendered geometries of power’. This integrated framework considers three major factors: the sending country, the global context of migration systems, and the receiving country.  Gender is the key to understanding fertility decisions within all three levels.  Migration from Africa to France is considered in order to exemplify these processes.  Bozon’s typology of African demographic patterns shows how and why the sending country matters for future childbearing decisions post-migration.  To further explore this facet, four countries are used to evaluate the impact of migrating from specific types of countries on fertility post-migration: Senegal, Mali, Cameroon, and Rwanda.  The global context of migration is constantly changing, both encouraging and restraining men and women in particular ways, which also affects fertility choices.  Finally, the receiving country interacts with migrants in various ways—immigration policies, the economy, and social institutions—playing important roles in fertility outcomes.
Length: 74 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, France, fertility, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cordula Zabel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Eligibility for materniy leave and first birth timing in Great Britain
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of maternity leave legislation on first birth timing in Great Britain. When maternity leave was introduced in Great Britain in 1976, the eligibility requirement for full-time employees was to have been working for the same employer for at least 2 years. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this paper examines whether women postponed first birth in accordance with tenure requirements for maternity leave. Higher transition rates to first birth are found for those who had acquired enough employer tenure to qualify for maternity leave than for those who did not yet qualify. However, the causal role of maternity leave legislation for first birth timing is uncertain, since transition rates to first birth began to diverge by employer tenure even before 1976.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Irina Troitskaia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Transition to modern contraception in Russia: evidence from the 1996 and 1999 Women’s Reproductive Health Surveys
Abstract: During the 1990s in Russia both abortion and fertility rates declined rapidly. In the present paper, we shed some light on the extent to which these developments were related to increased use of modern contraception. Two surveys with retrospective information on contraceptive calendars reveal increasing transitions to modern contraception during the 1990s and show how these transitions were related to basic demographic control variables for women in Russia.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, contraception, contraceptive usage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annett Fleischer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Illegalisierung, Legalisierung und Familienbildungsprozesse: am Beispiel Kameruner MigrantInnen in Deutschland
Abstract: Der Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Lebens- und Arbeitssituation von „illegalisierten Kameruner MigrantInnen“ in Deutschland. Neben der Analyse von Wegen in die Illegalität liegt der Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung auf den Möglichkeiten der Legalisierung des Aufenthaltsstatus. Die ethnologische Fallstudie macht deutlich, inwieweit individuelle Familienbildungsprozesse durch strukturelle Faktoren eines vorgegebenen gesetzlichen Rahmens erheblich mit beeinflusst werden. Dabei scheint es eine Tendenz zu geben, dass Frauen versuchen ihren Status über die Geburt und die Anerkennung von Kindern zu legalisieren, während Männer mehrheitlich eine deutsche Frau heiraten und während dieser Ehe ein Kind zeugen, um einen Aufenthaltsstatus zu erlangen. Der Artikel basiert auf einer viermonatigen Feldforschung (teilnehmende Beobachtung, informelle Gespräche und Tiefeninterviews) in Berlin.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Cameroon, Germany, child custody, illegal immigrants, legal status, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Agata V. D´Addato
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sutay Yavuz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Towards smaller family size in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey: overall change over time or socio-economic compositional effect?
Abstract: The whole region of the South and East Mediterranean exhibits a profound fertility transition with marked differences in the pace of fertility declines among the countries. The authors choose three representative countries: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. Determinants of the propensity towards smaller family size are investigated as scrutinizing the development in the pattern of third births, which represents the critical step in the transitional process for these countries. The authors are particularly interested in verifying whether the decline of higher-order births is significantly driven by an overall societal change over time or by compositional change over different socio-economic segments of the female population. Evidence is found that overall societal changes have mainly driven the decline in large family size, though, to a much lesser extent, compositional changes are important too.   
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, childbearing, family size, fertility decline
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Esther Geisler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Böhm
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gibt es eine zunehmende bildungsspezifische Polarisierung der Erwerbsmuster von Frauen? Analysen auf Basis der Mikrozensen 1976-2004
Abstract: This paper examines the development of female and maternal labor market participation in western Germany. We discuss major forces that contribute to educational differences in female employment behavior. The empirical investigation draws on data from the scientific-use-files of the micro-censuses from the years 1976 to 2004. While part-time and marginal employment rates of mothers have increased in recent years, their full-time employment rates have decreased. Particularly, the least educated mothers show dramatic reductions in their working hours over time. Full-time employment is most common among highly educated mothers and the “dual breadwinner model” is most common among highly educated couples. This finding has major consequences for the concentration of economic resources and inequality between households and families
Length: 63 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), breadwinners, education, family forms, female employment, microcensuses
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility differences by housing type: an effect of housing conditions or of selective moves?
Abstract: This study examines fertility variation across housing types and childbearing patterns after housing changes. While the effect of family changes on housing choices has been studied in detail, little is known about childbearing patterns within various housing types, despite the fact that many studies suggest housing as an important determinant of fertility. We use longitudinal register data from Finland and apply hazard regression. Firstly, we observe a significant variation in the fertility levels across housing types – fertility is highest among couples in single-family houses and lowest among those in apartments, with the variation remaining significant even after controlling for the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of women. Secondly, our results show elevated fertility levels after couples have changed their housing, suggesting that much of the fertility variation across housing types could be attributed to selective moves. Thirdly, the study also reveals relatively a high risk of third birth for couples in single-family houses several years after the move, suggesting that living in spacious housing and in a family-friendly environment for a longer time may lead to higher fertility.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, event history analysis, fertility, housing, migration, residential mobility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: David Alich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Differences between male and female fertility in Russia: an evaluation of basic pattern and data quality using the first wave of the Russian GGS
Abstract: While most demographic fertility studies focus on child birth behavior of females, little is known about differences between males and females fertility behavior. The lack of empirical research about men stems from problems such as linking fathers and their biological offspring, biological differences in male reproductive behavior as compared to women, missing data and concerns about the quality of existing data sources. Using the data from the Russian Generation and Gender Survey (2004) of the cohorts 1924 to 1970, this study provides insights into sex-specific fertility differences, by comparing fertility age, timing and parity patterns of Russian men and women. Aggregate measures as well as event history techniques are used to analyze the hypotheses that men have a longer reproductive life span, that they start their fertility career later than women and that males vary more in their number of biological children born than do females. Furthermore, we evaluate how reliable Russian male fertility reports are compared to women’s. The results show that in spite of a typical age difference at the transition to parenthood of approximately two years, males and females have much more common fertility patterns than is suggested by previous studies. Moreover, it is shown that men’s fertility reports are not necessarily biased. These findings suggest that comprehensive future research of Russian men´s fertility pattern is possible.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, father, fertility, fertility measurements, mother, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kirk Scott
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: the role of labor-market status, country of origin, and gender
Abstract: In this paper, we provide a study of childbearing dynamics by the labor-market status of co-residing one- and two-child parents in Sweden. We apply event-history techniques to longitudinal register data on life histories of foreign-born mothers from ten different countries and the partners to these women as well as a sample of Swedish-born mothers and their partners. Our context is a universalistic welfare state geared towards gender and social equality where formal social rights largely are independent of a person’s civil status, citizenship, and country of origin. We investigate to what extent the associations of parents’ labor-market status with childbearing in Sweden differ between women and men and by country of origin. We find that patterns of association are fairly similar on both these personal dimensions. As measured by the way labor-market activity of parents is related to their subsequent childbearing behavior, we find striking evidence of equality by gender as well as some evidence of integration of immigrants into the dynamics of Swedish society.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility, immigrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion
Abstract: In this article we argue that social and economic changes in the past fifteen years have influenced distinct socio-economic categories of women differently. We show that the transition of family formation behaviours was not uniform but rather dependent on the educational level of women. We found wide differences between educational categories in terms of the changes in level, timing and sequencing of first birth and first marriage, using the techniques of nuptiality and fertility life tables and the hazard modelling of first marriage and first conception. Two different types of “trendsetters” were identified in Czech society. The trendsetters of non-marital fertility are women with primary education, who tend to be lone mothers or to cohabit even after childbirth. The second group of trendsetters are more highly educated women, who postpone their fertility onset until their 30s, but who still place their first childbirth traditionally inside marriage. The number of possible reasons for the family formation transition is manifold, ranging from the changing economic roles of women through actual setting of family policy to the post-modern value change, all further reinforced by educational expansion since the 1990s. There is no general explanation of the transitional behaviour, as women of different education levels are reacting differently to the social and economic changes.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family dynamics in pre- and post-transition Romania: a life-table description
Abstract: This study presents a life-table decription of a wide range of events concerning family formation and fertility in Romania, by contrasting two different periods in Romanian history: a period of authoritarian regime and centrally planned economy (1980-1989) and a period of democratic political regime and market-oriented economy (1996-2005). A large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables deals with leaving home, separating from the parental family, forming first union, direct marriage, cohabitation, childbearing in the context of cohabitation or marriage, separation and divorce, parenting (first birth and second birth). Perspectives of men and women, as well of couples and children, are considered. The main data source we used here is Generations and Gender Survey carried out in Romania in 2005. Our life-table analysis confirms the early stage of the Second Demographic Transition in Romania. However, in European context it still remains a society highly valuing marriage and childbearing, despite the evidence in family behaviour changes which have accompanied political and socio-economical transformations after the fall of communist regime.
Length: 70 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Romania, family dynamics
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demography, present and future
Length: 3 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dora Kostova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: a joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation
Abstract: In this paper, we study entry into the first conjugal union among young women in Bulgaria in 1980 through 2004 based on data from the national Gender and Generations Survey conducted in 2004. We use an extension of piecewise-constant hazard regression to analyze jointly the transition into a cohabitational union and directly into marriage. This extension will allow us to compare the relative risks of covariates across the two competing transitions, a comparison which infeasible otherwise. In this manner we find, among many other things, that women in the Roma sub-population have more than twice as high a tendency to start a cohabitation as to start a marriage at each age, ceteris paribus, while for ethnic Bulgarian women the relationship is more like 1.5. We also find that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation; the increase is by a factor of over 20 for marriage formation and “only” a factor of around 10 for entry into cohabitation, again ceteris paribus. The standardized marriage intensity for non-pregnant women without children has fallen strongly by a factor of more than six over the period of investigation; the standardized rate of cohabitation has been much more stable and has only fallen by some forty percent, mostly toward the end of the period. These features have not appeared in previous analyses.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: effects or artifacts?
Abstract: This paper argues that theoretical and methodological aspects account for the ambiguous results of investigations into the effects of family policies on fertility. Theoretically we employ approaches of comparative welfare-state research, of the sociology of “constructed categories”, and of the “new institutionalism” to demonstrate that investigations into the effects of policies on fertility need to contextualize policies and reduce their complexities by focusing on “critical junctures”, “space”, and “usage”. As regards methods we argue that the policy effects can only be assessed properly if we study the impact of policies on individual behavior, event-history models applied to individual-level data being the state-of-theart of such an approach. We present studies on the impact of family policies on Swedish childbearing behavior to demonstrate that an analytical and methodological approach as we advocate prevents us from drawing misleading conclusions about the effects of family policies on childbearing and fertility.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cordula Zabel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do imputed educational histories provide satisfactory results in
fertility analysis in the West German context?
Abstract: This paper investigates how well imputed educational histories perform in the analysis of first birth rates in the West German context. The focus here is on the quality of estimates when only rudimentary information on the timing of education is available. In many surveys, information on respondents’ educational histories is restricted to the highest level of educational attained by the time of interview and the date at which this highest degree was attained. Skeleton educational histories can be imputed simply from such rudimentary information. The German Life History Study has complete educational histories. We use these to compare estimates based on the complete histories with estimates based on corresponding imputed histories. We find that the imputed histories produce relatively reliable estimates of the effect on first-birth rates of having a university degree vs. having a vocational certificate. Estimating corresponding rates for women who have no such education proved to cause greater difficulties.
Length: 11 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/21/6
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gebremariam Woldemicael
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Women’s status and reproductive preferences in Eritrea
Abstract: The importance of women’s decision-making autonomy has recently emerged as a key factor in influencing reproductive preferences and demand for family planning in developing countries. In this study, the effect of direct indicators of women’s decision-making autonomy on fertility preferences and ever-use of modern contraception is examined using logistic regression models with and without proxy indicators. The results provide evidence that different dimensions of women’s autonomy influence the outcome variables differently in terms of magnitude and statistical significance. Particularly, women’s final say in decisions regarding day-to-day household purchases and spousal communication about family planning are influential predictors of fertility preferences and ever-use of modern family planning methods. At the same time, results show that the effects of women’s education on fertility preferences are not always significant although it has significant roles in affecting women’s decision-making autonomy. Women’s household economic situation has always significant effects on women’s autonomy as well as on fertility preferences and ever use of contraception. Thus, a complete explanation of the relationship between women’s autonomy and reproductive preferences must recognize the effects of both proxy and direct indicators of women’s autonomy. Interventions are needed to improve women’s decision-making autonomy and strengthen their negotiating capacity for family planning use if an increased desire to limit fertility is to be attained.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Eritrea, family planning, fertility, women's status
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lucia Coppola
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mariachiara Di Cesare
Title: How fertility and union stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the interrelationships between fertility decisions and union dissolution in Italy and Spain. We argue that there might exist a spurious relationship between these two life trajectories. The analysis is based on the 1996 Fertility and Family Survey data for Italy and Spain. Results show that there is a spurious relationship between fertility and union dissolution in Italy but not in Spain. Nevertheless, in both countries, there is an evident direct effect of each process on the other: union dissolution decreases the risk of further childbearing, while childbirth decreases the risk of union dissolution.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, Spain, divorce rate, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Premarital conception and divorce risk in Russia in light of the GGS data
Abstract: The paper provides an analysis of divorce risk in first marital unions in Russia, with a major focus on the impact of premarital conception on the stability of subsequent marriage. A number of other predictors are also discussed, including age at first marriage, parity and age of the youngest child, parental divorce, place of residence, religion group and calendar period. The analysis is based on data from the Russian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) carried out in 2004 and applies event history techniques. The results show that marriages induced by pregnancy run a higher divorce risk compared to those contracted without anticipation of childbirth.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, divorce
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dora Kostova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in four selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe: union formation as a demographic manifestation
Abstract: Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey for Hungary, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions and display manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition in these data. The transition did not start simultaneously in all countries, and above all it began well before the fall of communism and before the societal transition to a market economy got underway around 1990. Bulgaria is a special case whose trends need more attention than those of the other countries.
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Russian Federation, cohabitation, demographic transition, first marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vassili N. Novoseltsev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Michalski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Janna A. Novoseltseva
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James R. Carey
Author-Name: Thomas W. Scott
Title: Senescence can play an essential role in modelling and estimation of vector based epidemiological indicators: demographical approach
Abstract: In the paper basic epidemiological indicators, produced by an aging population of vectors, are calculated. In the study we follow two lines: calculations for demographically structured population and individual life-history approach. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these approaches and compare the results of our calculations with epidemiological indicators obtained for non-aging population of vectors.    
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Gibraltar, age effect, disease control, gerontology
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational attainment and second births in Romania
Abstract: This study investigates the effect of educational attainment and educational enrolment on the risks of second birth in Romania, using data from the Generations and Gender Survey of 2005. Looking at the 1950-2005 period, we found a persistently negative effect of education on second birth, i.e., women with a relatively high level of education have lower risks of birth. Being in education significantly reduces the risk of second birth compared to women with no educational qualification. The risk is not lower, however, when we compare women who are still enrolled in education with individuals who have a high level of education. The strong negative effect of age at first birth observed when we do not control for personality weakens once we control for unobserved heterogeneity. We also show the extent to which changes in the socio-political regime, in family policies, and in the educational system affect the impact of education on second births.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Romania, education of women, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Monika A. Mynarska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility postponement and age norms in Poland: is there a deadline for parenthood?
Abstract: The postponement of childbearing is occurring across Europe, but the paths of this trend differ profoundly from country to country. Especially in Central and Eastern Europe, most women have their first child at a relatively young age. This paper asks about the role of age norms in sustaining the pattern of early motherhood in Poland. The qualitative approach allows us to gain insights into how local culture shapes a positive image of early parenthood. We find a strong influence of socially defined age deadlines on the timing of childbearing. We present how age norms are explained and sanctioned. We argue that early motherhood is strongly connected to the fear of not being able to conceive in older age. And in Polish culture, childless people suffer from extremely negative opinions.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christin Schröder
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The influence of parents on cohabitation in Italy: insights from two regional contexts
Abstract: In view of the demographic changes that affect all European countries, the diffusion of new living arrangements such as non-marital cohabitation is particularly interesting. In this article we concentrate on Italy, a country that is characterized by a low pace in the diffusion of cohabitation. Earlier studies found statistical evidence of the impact of parents’ characteristics on young adults’ decisions for cohabitation. However, there is only limited empirical knowledge about the actual mechanism through which parents influence the choices of their children. We employ qualitative research methods and focus on two regional contexts in order to analyze if and how parents intervene in the choices young adults.
Length: 52 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, cohabitation, parents, qualitative methods
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: An introduction to anthropological demography
Abstract: Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography which uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations. Its genesis and ongoing growth lie at the intersection between demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes, mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research object, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects of this research object: demography is statistically oriented and is mainly concerned with the dynamic forces defining population size and structure and their variation across time and space, whereas socio-cultural anthropology is interpretative and focuses on the social organization shaping the production and reproduction of human populations. The main theoretical concepts in anthropological demography are culture, gender, and political economy; its empirical research approach includes a mix of quantitative and qualitative methodologies applied to case studies. Ethnographic fieldwork and participant observation are often central to this approach as is an interpretative reading of secondary data and historical material.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
Number: WP-2007-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: anthropology, culture, ethnography, fertility, field activity, gender, methods of analysis, migration, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Qiang Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mieke Reuser
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cornelia Kraus
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Juha Alho
Title: Aging of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2001-2050
Abstract: This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population aging. Stochastic forecasting methods have the advantage of producing a projection of the future population including a probabilistic prediction interval. The socalled scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions in this study. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error of the population forecast. Therefore, the error structures estimated for European countries were employed with some modifications taking the large size and heterogeneity of the Chinese population into account. The stochastic forecast confirms the expectation of extremely rapid population aging during the first half of the 21st century in China. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) will increase with certainty. By mid-century, with 80% probability, the OADR will lie between 0.41 and 0.56, with the median of the predictive distribution being 0.48, nearly five-fold its current value of 0.1. In particular, the oldest-old population will grow faster than any other age group. This development has major implications for China: to smoothly adjust current birth control policies to less restrictive ones, strengthen the family support system, and improve the social security system for the elderly.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Oppo
Title: Fertility and family configurations in Sardinia
Abstract: In this paper we argue that the strength of intergenerational relationships in Italy is one important element in understanding low fertility in this country, but that the role that family plays in a couple’s fertility decisions needs to be understood in light of the wider context of normative influences on life-course transitions. While choices about childbearing rest with the couple, the background against which such choices are made is provided by the set of actual relationships in which the couple is embedded before they form a union, at the time in which they get engaged, and after, despite the residential independence of the new nuclear family.  The empirical data are 74 semi-structured interviews with women between ages 23-42 who were resident in Cagliari, the main urban center of Sardinia, Italy. In addition, we use the field-notes produced by several months of ethnographic observation of social practices related to intergenerational relations, gender relations, and parental roles. Our findings show, among other aspects, that considerations of work and family are developed in accordance with expectations and responsibilities related to care and family. The extent to which care is gendered depends on the extent to which a young woman’s family configuration includes a substantial proportion of female maternal kin. There two ways in which such gendered strong ties are relevant: a) strong ties among kin-related women represent the principal resource for material and psychological support in daily and occasional circumstances; b) strong ties among female maternal kin are the major vehicles for the socialization of young women and therefore have a great influence on their attitudes towards family and work. As a consequence, women isolated from maternal kin are more likely to eschew the double presence model to welcome the first serious marriage prospect, thereby abandoning their educational pattern too early to have reasonable expectations of employment and devoting themselves to family and children. The isolation of a nuclear family may also hinder family formation for young women who have sole responsibility for ageing and dependent parents, particularly when affective ties are strong. When the social environment with respect to specific life course and family circumstances is mostly constituted by the husband’s kin, married women are likely to have more children than other women.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/book_chapters/female_centered_family_configurations_3090
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2007-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, family, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paul J. Boyle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: High fertility in city suburbs: compositional or contextual effects?
Abstract: Fertility rates are known to be higher in city suburbs. One interpretation is that the suburban ‘context’ influences the behaviour of individuals who reside there while an alternative is that the ‘composition’ of the suburban population explains the higher fertility levels. Furthermore, suburban in-migrants who intend to have children may have a significant influence on suburban fertility rates. Using Finnish longitudinal register data we show that fertility rates are higher in the suburbs and rural areas and lower in the cities. While fertility variation across these residential contexts decreases significantly after controlling for women’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics, it does not disappear entirely suggesting that the local context may have some influence on fertility. While movers to suburbs do display higher fertility levels than non-migrant residents, their overall impact is not great because they form a small share of the suburban population.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, event history analysis, fertility, migration, residential mobility, rural areas, suburban areas, urban areas
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gebremariam Woldemicael
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do women with higher autonomy seek more maternal and child health-care? Evidence from Ethiopia and Eritrea
Abstract: Current research and policy on maternal and child health-care in Eritrea and Ethiopia focus primarily on female education and employment, while little attention is placed on women’s decision-making autonomy. However, the role of women’s decision-making in reproductive health cannot be overemphasized. In this paper, different dimensions of women’s decision-making autonomy and their relationship to maternal and child health-care utilization are investigated using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys of Ethiopia and Eritrea. We simultaneously consider the role of socio-economic (indirect) indicators of women’s status . The study shows that most autonomy indicators are important predictors of maternal and child health-care utilization although the strength and statistical significance vary by health-care utilization outcome and country, and in some cases significance is lost when socio-economic indicators are held constant. The strong positive effect of women’s sole decision-making in visiting family or relatives on use of antenatal care and child immunization is particularly impressive. On the other hand, the loss of significance of other dimensions of women’s decision-making when socio-economic factors are controlled for indicates that some health-care seeking behaviours are more dependent on socio-economic factors like education and employment. The results show that most socio-economic indicators have strong influence on both women’s decision-making autonomy and on maternal and child health-care utilization. These findings suggest that both women’s autonomy and socio-economic indicators should be analyzed in order to derive a complete understanding of the determinants of maternal and child health-care utilization.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Eritrea, Ethiopia
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Paul J. Boyle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: E. Graham
Author-Name: Z. Feng
Title: Contextualising demography: the significance of local clusters of fertility in Scotland
Abstract: This study links empirical analysis of geographical variations in fertility to ideas of contextualising demography. We examine whether there are statistically significant clusters of fertility in Scotland between 1981 and 2001, controlling for more general factors expected to influence fertility. Our hypothesis, that fertility patterns at a local scale cannot be explained entirely by ecological socio-economic variables, is supported. In fact, there are ‘unexplained’ local clusters of high and low fertility, which would be masked in analyses at a different scale. We discuss the demographic significance of local fertility clusters as contexts for fertility behaviour, including the role of the housing market and social interaction processes, and the residential sorting of those displaying or anticipating different fertility behaviour. We conclude that greater understanding of local geographical contexts is needed if we are to develop mid-level demographic theories and shift the focus of fertility research from events to processes. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Scotland, fertility, geography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The reporting of statistical significance in scientific journals
Length: 2 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-037.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Reinhard Nuthmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Zum Zusammenhang von Familiensoziologie und Familiendemografie seit 1945 in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2007-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2007-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Germany/FRG
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Caroline Bledsoe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Papa Sow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family reunification ideals and the practice of transnational reproductive life among Africans in Europe
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: family, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Livia Sz. Oláh
Title: Should governments in Europe be much more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? YES
Length: 9 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christin Schröder
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic insecurity and cohabitation strategies in Italy
Abstract: A particular aspect of demographic behavior among young people in Italy is postponement of entering first union. High youth unemployment, a tense housing situation, and a passive welfare state are currently creating a precarious economic situation, in which most young adults are unable to choose cohabitation. Thus, not surprisingly, previous studies found evidence that in Italy cohabitation was only a choice for people who were economically independent. Also of interest is that the percentage of informal unions varies to a considerable extent across Italy, showing higher proportions of cohabitation in the more prosperous regions of the North, unlike the South, where informal unions are much less prevalent and the economic system is affected by mismanagement, unemployment, and the informal economy. This suggests an interrelationship between the diffusion of cohabitation and the regional economic situation. In this qualitative study we are particularly interested in the question of how job insecurity affects cohabitation – or more precisely: How are job insecurity and resulting economic shortages related to the hesitant spread of cohabitation in Italy? For our analysis we investigated two different regional settings: Bologna in the North and Cagliari (Sardinia) in the South.  Our findings show that, when compared to their counterparts in Cagliari, couples in Bologna benefited from higher opportunities to access at least temporary job contracts. Benefiting also from the availability of parental support during cohabitation, the Bologna couples faced fewer obstacles when deciding on an informal union. In Cagliari, couples were strongly affected by unstable employment conditions; further, the lack of parental approval of cohabitation often led to decreasing economic support, thereby making cohabitation an expensive choice.  
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, cohabitation, economic resources, qualitative methods
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cornelia Kraus
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Manfred Eberle
Author-Name: Peter M. Kappeler
Title: The costs of risky male behaviour: sex differences in seasonal survival in a small sexually monomorphic primate
Abstract: Male excess mortality is widespread among mammals and frequently interpreted as a cost of sexually selected traits that enhance male reproductive success. Sex differences in the propensity to engage in risky behaviours are often invoked to explain the sex gap in survival. Here we aim to isolate and quantify the survival consequences of two potentially risky male behavioural strategies in a small sexually monomorphic primate, the grey mouse lemur Microcebus murinus: (1) Most females hibernate during a large part of the austral winter, whereas most males remain active, and (2) during the brief annual mating season males roam widely in search for receptive females.  Using a 10-year capture-mark-recapture data set from a population of M. murinus in Kirindy Forest, western Madagascar, we statistically modelled sex-specific seasonal survival probabilities. Surprisingly, we did not find any evidence for direct survival benefits of hibernation – winter survival did not differ between males and females. In contrast, during the breeding season males survived less well than females (sex gap: 16%). Consistent with the “risky male behaviour”-hypothesis, the period for lowered male survival was restricted to the short mating season. Thus, sex differences in survival can be substantial even in the absence of sexual dimorphism.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/the_costs_of_risky_male_behaviour_sex_differences_in_seasonal_survival_in_a_small_sexually_monomorphic_primate_3071
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2008-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annett Fleischer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Marriage over space and time among male migrants from Cameroon to Germany
Abstract: Restrictive immigration and integration policies in Germany increasingly force African migrants to develop strategies and practices to acquire legal residence and obtain an essential work permit. Our account of Cameroonian men in Germany contributes to the discussion about the role of the nation state in transnational migration processes. Since national policies in the receiving country determine the right to settle and the risk of expulsion, the German nation state plays a decisive role for African migrants. The present paper emphasises the impact of national migration policies on Cameroonian men’s marriage strategies. Diminishing options for legalising their status in Germany by other means make Cameroonians increasingly dependent on sustaining a three-year marriage to a German wife. Mainly based on extensive ethnographic fieldwork in Cameroon and Germany, the present article explores the distribution of marriage over space and time as a means of securing the right to work and stay in Germany.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Cameroon, Germany, international migration, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Education and permanent childlessness: Austria vs. Sweden; a research note
Abstract: In this research note we extend our previous study of the association between educational attainment and permanent childlessness in Sweden (Hoem et al., 2006) to cover Austria, and we make comparisons between the two countries. In both investigations we have defined educational attainment in terms of both educational level and educational field. We find largely the same pattern of childlessness by educational field in both countries; in particular at each educational level women educated for teaching jobs or for health occupations typically have lower childlessness than other lines of education. However, for most groups childlessness is higher in Austria, and for academic educations it is much higher. We attribute these differences to institutional differences in the two countries which may bring about a different culture of reproductive behavior.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, education, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marit Rønsen
Author-Name: Lisbeth B. Knudsen
Author-Name: Trude Lappegård
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kari Skrede
Author-Name: Kathrin Teschner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic Countries
Abstract: Previous analyses of period fertility suggest that the trends of the Nordic countries are sufficiently similar to speak of a common "Nordic fertility regime". We investigate whether this assumption can be corroborated by comparing cohort fertility patterns in the Nordic countries. We study cumulated and completed fertility of Nordic birth cohorts based on the childbearing histories of women born in 1935 and later derived from the population registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. We further explore childbearing behaviour by women’s educational attainment. The results show remarkable similarities in postponement and recuperation between the countries and very small differences in completed fertility across educational groups. Median childbearing age is about 2−3 years higher in the 1960−64 cohort than in the 1950−54 cohort, but the younger cohort recuperates the fertility level of the older cohort at ages 30 and above. A similar pattern of recuperation can be observed for highly educated women as compared to women with less education. An interesting finding is that of a positive relationship between educational level and the final number of children when women who become mothers at similar ages are compared. Country differences in fertility outcome are generally rather low. Childlessness is highest in Finland and lowest in Norway, and the educational differentials are largest in Norway. Despite such differences, the cohort analyses in many ways support the notion of a common Nordic fertility regime.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, cohort fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Markéta Pechholdová
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Reconstruction of continuous series of mortality by cause of death in West Germany for the years 1968-1997
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arseniy S. Karkach
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: MAXIM: a system for simulation of demographic processes in populations of related individuals. Version 2.3. User and programmer manual
Length: 78 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ellen Kalmbach
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Richard Griffiths
Author-Name: Robert W. Furness
Title: Sex-specific growth and effects of hatching condition in the reversed sexually size-dimorphic great skua
Abstract: Increased environmental sensitivity of the larger sex has been reported in several size-dimorphic vertebrate species. It is generally assumed that this is due to a higher energy demand of the larger sex, thus increasing susceptibility to food shortage. However, sex-specific growth rates might act to reduce discrepancies in energy demands of differently sized chicks. To test these ideas, we compared growth of male and female chicks in a reversed size-dimorphic seabird, the great skua Stercorarius skua, for which a higher mortality rate of female chicks has been shown. We used chick growth data of mass, tarsus and wing from unmanipulated nests, as well as from an egg removal experiment in which chicks hatched from smaller eggs and in poor body condition. Experimental chicks were raised by either of two groups of parents with differing condition. We fitted logistic growth curves to the data using non-linear mixed models. In the experimental treatments growth was only impaired in the group which was raised by poor condition parents, which underlines the importance of parental quality for chick development. At the end of the nesting period, great skua chicks exhibited a comparable degree of size dimorphism as is found in adults, although neither sex had reached final adult size. Despite females reaching larger asymptotic values, timing of growth was not different between the sexes. However, we found a sex-specific effect of hatching condition: improved hatching condition correlated with faster growth of mass and tarsus in females, but did not affect male growth. The instantaneous growth rates suggest that females face higher energetic demands during growth, especially in the latter part of chick development when size-dimorphism is most apparent. However, vulnerability appears to be connected to circumstances during early development, a time at which the dimorphism is not yet apparent in terms of size or weight. We propose that nutritional constraints during early life negatively affect the development of structures or processes that are necessary to sustain high growth rates later. We found no evidence that growth rates are adapted in order to reduce differences in sex-specific offspring cost in this size dimorphic species. 
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Trifon I. Missov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Metcalf
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Optimal semelparity
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
Number: WP-2008-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: evolution, growth rate, life histories
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Eugeny L. Soroko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Roland Rau
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Beyond the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality: an assessment of data quality at advanced ages
Abstract: The old age population in developed countries has been increasing remarkably, yet internationally comparable high quality data on oldest-old mortality remain relatively scarce. The Kannisto-Thatcher Old Age Mortality Database (KTD) is a unique source providing uniformly recalculated old-age mortality data for 35 countries. Our study addresses a number of data quality issues relevant to population and death statistics at the most advanced ages. Following previous studies by Väinö Kannisto, we apply the same set of measures. This allows us to identify dubious or irregular mortality patterns. Deviations such as this often suggest that the data quality has serious problems. We update previously published findings by extending the analyses made so far to thirty five countries and by adding data on longer historical periods. In addition, we propose a systematic classification of country- and period-specific data, thus simultaneously accounting for each indicator of data quality. We apply conventional procedures of hierarchical cluster analysis to distinguish four data quality clusters (best data quality, acceptable data quality, conditionally acceptable quality, and weak quality). We show that the reliability of old-age mortality estimates has been improving in time. However, the mortality indicators for the most advanced ages of a number of countries, such as Chile, Canada, and the USA should be treated with caution even for the most recent decade. Canada, Ireland, Finland, Lithuania, New Zealand (Non-Maori), Norway, Portugal, Spain, and the USA have particular problems in their historical data series. After having compared the KTD with official data, we conclude that the methods used for extinct and almost extinct generations produce more accurate population estimates than those published by national statistical offices. The most reliable official data come from the countries with fully functioning population registers.
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, data evaluation, mortality, old age
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Elisabetta Barbi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regularities and deviations in mortality trends of the developed world
Abstract: By the second half of the 20th century, mortality patterns in industrialized countries showed a continuous tendency of reduction at all ages, even at the oldest ones. However, the pace of mortality decline considerably varies depending on the country. Furthermore, in a few cases, stagnation and even an unexpected reversed pattern have been observed in more recent years.  In this paper a comparative analysis of mortality trends in several developed countries is performed. The aim of the paper is to locate deviations from expected mortality patterns, and to understand the reasons for these deviations. As a first step of the analysis, a new two-dimensional relational model is applied to mortality surfaces of the selected developed countries, between 1960 and 1999, for the age range 50-99. In the second step, mortality by cause of the countries with particular structural features is analyzed through the surfaces of leading causes of death.
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality trends
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lesia Nedoluzhko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Marriage formation as a process intermediary between migration and childbearing
Abstract: In studies of differences in fertility between migrants and non-migrants, marriage interferes because migration can be motivated by an impending marriage or can entail entry into a marriage market with new opportunities. One would therefore expect elevated fertility after migration, although a competing theory states that on the contrary fertility ought to be reduced in the time around the move because migration temporarily disturbs the life of the migrant. In any case marriage appears as a process that is intermediary between migration and childbearing. To handle such issues it pays to have a technique that allows the analyst to separate any disruptive effects of migration from any boosting effects of marriage in studies of childbearing. The purposes of the present paper is (i) to remind us that such a technique is available, in fact is straightforward, and (ii) to apply the technique to further analyze a set of data on migration and first-time parenthood in Kyrgyzstan recently used by the second author and Gunnar Andersson. The technique has the neat feature that it allows us to operate with several “clocks” at the same time. In the analysis of first births we keep track of time since migration (for migrants) and time since marriage formation (for the married) beside the respondent’s age (for women at childbearing ages); in other connections there may be more clocks. For such analyses we make use of a flexible graphical housekeeping device that allows the analyst to keep track of a feature like whether migration occurs before or after marriage, or at the same time. This is a half-century-old flow chart of statuses and transitions and is not much more complex that the famous Lexis diagram, which originated with Gustav Zeuner, as we now know. These reflexions were first presented at a symposium dedicated to Professor Zeuner.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerard J. van den Berg
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Title: Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life
Abstract: We analyze causal effects of conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life. Conditions early in life are captured by transitory features of the macro environment around birth, notably the state of the business cycle around birth, but also food price deviations, weather indicators, and demographic indicators. We argue that these features can only affect high-age mortality by way of the individual early-life conditions. Moreover, they are exogenous from the individual point of view, which is a methodological advantage compared to the use of unique characteristics of the newborn individual or his family or household as early-life indicators. We collected national annual time-series data on the above-mentioned indicators, and we combine these to the individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births in 1873-1906. The empirical analyses (mostly based on the estimation of duration models) indicate a significant negative causal effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at higher ages. If the national economic performance in the year of birth exceeds its trend value (i.e., if the business cycle is favorable) then the mortality rate later in life is lower. The implied effect on the median lifetime of those who survive until age 35 is about 10 months. A systematic empirical exploration of all macro indicators reveals that economic conditions in the first years after birth also affect mortality rates later in life.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cornelia Kraus
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kristina A. Pfannkuche
Author-Name: Fritz Trillmich
Author-Name: Ton G. G. Groothuis
Title: High maternal androstenedione levels during pregnancy in a small precocial mammal with female genital masculinisation
Abstract: -Masculinisation of female genitalia is an intriguing phenomenon amongst some mammalian species and its endocrinological basis as well as its adaptive value is still heavily debated. We recently reported female genital masculinisation in Cavia magna. The closely related C. aperea, does not show such masculinisation providing an unique opportunity to investigate potential endocrinological mechanisms underlying this difference. For both species we determined plasma levels of androstenedione and testosterone in adults of both sexes, and in females during different stages of pregnancy. Consistent with the normal mammalian pattern males showed higher levels of both androgens than conspecific females. Androgen profiles during pregnancy differed significantly between C. magna and C. aperea females: during mid-pregnancy androstenedione levels were strongly elevated in the masculinised C. magna, but not in C. aperea, indicating that high levels of this androgen may be involved in the differentiation of masculinized genitalia in female C. magna, as has been suggested for the spotted hyena. In both C. magna and the spotted hyena the pups show a highly advanced state of maturation, but in contrast to the hyena female C. magna are not overly aggressive. We therefore propose that female genital masculinisation might be a side effect of early exposure to elevated levels of maternal androgens that might be selected for to speed up precocial development.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dirk Konietzka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The transition from school to work in Russia during and after socialism: change or continuity?
Abstract: Russia. It compares the process of entering working life during socialism (1966-1990) and the transition period (1991-2005) by utilizing information from 6,455 males and females of the "Education and Employment Survey for Russia". The results document influences both of change and of continuity. The introduction of labor markets and a mismatch between qualifications acquired at school and demanded by employers led to increasing risks of unemployment after education and first jobs at the lower levels of the occupational hierarchy. However, as the general character of the educational system and the internal structures of many firms did not change, traditional paths of mobility from educational degrees to particular occupational positions continued to exist. Thus, the transition from school-to-work in Russia did not experience an abrupt change but a gradual adjustment to the new economic order.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, early adulthood, educational systems, employment, occupational qualifications, transitional society, unemployment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Giuseppe Gabrielli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Italy’s non-negligible cohabitational unions
Abstract: Recent trends in official statistics show strong increases in non-marital cohabitation in younger Italian generations. Moreover, other sources suggest that consensual unions have lasted longer in recent years before they were converted into marriages. In the present paper we consider entry into marriage and entry into cohabitation as competing risks and study whether the (standardized) entry risk for cohabitation has overtaken that for marriage in Italy, much as in countries in Central and Eastern Europe that we have studied in earlier papers. We find that it has not, and conclude that the move toward the Second Demographic Transition has not taken off in Italy. We also find that the rise in the risk of entry into cohabitation is confined to Northern and Central Italy, while the risk of marriage formation has dropped both there and in Southern Italy. Perhaps Italy is a special case in the European context as far as union formation is concerned.
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cordula Zabel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Patterns of partnership formation among lone mothers in Russia
Abstract: This study examines the determinants of partnership formation among lone mothers in Russia, using data from the Russian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) and the Education and Employment Survey (EES). The central research question is whether difficult economic circumstances pressure lone mothers to enter new partnerships sooner than they would under other circumstances, limiting their freedom of choice of type of living arrangement. The empirical results show that while occupation influences lone mothers’ rates of partnership formation both before and after 1991, a significant effect of employment status does not appear until after 1991. Apart from economic factors, demographic factors such as the age and number of children are also shown to have an important impact on lone mothers’ rates of partnership formation. Comparisons to patterns of partnership formation among childless women are also presented.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paul J. Boyle
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: High suburban fertility: evidence from four Northern European countries
Abstract: This study examines fertility variation across different residential contexts in four Northern European countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We move beyond the conventional urban-rural focus of most previous studies of within-nation variations in fertility by distinguishing between urban centres and suburbs of cities and towns. We base our study on aggregate and individual-level register data and our analysis shows that fertility levels are significantly higher in suburbs than in urban centres; this pattern has persisted over the past quarter of a century for all four countries. A parity-specific analysis of Swedish register data reveals that total fertility varies between central cities and suburbs due to the relatively high first- and second-birth propensities in the suburbs. Further analysis shows that fertility variation between the central cities and suburbs persists after controlling for women’s socioeconomic characteristics. We discuss the role of various factors in accounting for high suburban fertility including omitted individual characteristics, contextual factors and selective residential moves of couples planning to have a child.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, fertility, suburban areas
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco Lagona
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Zhen Zhang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A missing composite covariate in survival analysis: a case study of the Chinese Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey
Abstract: We estimate a Cox proportional hazards model where one of the covariates measures the level of a subject´s cognitive functioning by grading the total score obtained by the subject on the items of a questionnaire. A case study is presented where the sample includes partial respondents, who did not answer some or all of the questionnaire items. The total score takes hence the form of an interval-censored variable and, as a result, the level of cognitive functioning is missing on some subjects. We handle partial respondents by taking a likelihood-based approach where survival time is jointly modelled with the censored total score and the size of the censoring interval. Parameter estimates are obtained by an E-M-type algorithm that essentially reduces to the iterative maximization of three complete log-likelihood functions derived from two augmented datasets with case  weights, alternated with weights updating. This methodology is exploited to assess the Mini Mental State Examination index as a prognostic factor of survival in a sample of Chinese older adults.
Length: 9 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China, health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gerard J. van den Berg
Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Title: Being born under adverse economic conditions leads to a higher cardiovascular mortality rate later in life: evidence based on individuals born at different stages of the business cycle

Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Robert G. White
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Close kin influences on fertility behavior
Abstract: Family members are uniquely situated to influence the decision-making of their kin in nearly every facet of life.  We examine the importance of social interactions in fertility outcomes by assessing family members’ scope of influence on their fellow kin’s fertility behavior.  With the unique KASS genealogical dataset from eight countries in Europe, we study the effects of family members’ fertility outcomes on individual fertility to assess the presence and the extent of inter-generational transmission of fertility behaviors and siblings’ influences on fertility outcomes.  We find only limited evidence of the inter-generational transmission of fertility behaviors, but a relatively important effect of siblings for individual fertility.  Rather than parents, siblings’ influences appear to constitute the largest share of familial influences on fertility outcomes.  We also find that among siblings, women’s fertility is more subject to the influences of their sisters. These findings indicate the relative importance of close kin influences on individual fertility and demonstrate the consequences of family structure for fertility change.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family demography, family size, fertility, kinship, sisters
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On systems with shared resources and optimal switching strategies
Abstract: Simple series systems of identical components with spare parts are considered. It is shown that the cumulative distribution function of a system failure time tends to a step function as the number of components increases and resources can be shared. An example of ‘continuous resources’ is also described. The time-sharing strategy for standby systems is investigated. It is proved that an optimal rule for a system of standby components with increasing failure rates is the single switching performed at t/2 , where  t is a mission time.
Length: 11 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eleonora Mussino
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia
Abstract: This paper contributes to the analysis of fertility differentials between migrants and the native-born by examining the transition to first child using event history analysis. The data examined are the first-wave Italian Families and Social Subjects Survey conducted in 2003 and the first-wave Russian Gender and Generations Survey conducted in 2004. The objective of the study is twofold: First we seek to determine whether differences exist in the decision and timing of childbearing between native and foreign-born women in Italy and in Russia. Second we aim to compare the experiences of immigrants in the two countries, to determine whether there may be any commonalities inherent to the immigrant populations, despite moving into widely different contexts. Our results show many similarities in the risk profiles of our two immigrant groups which is more suggestive of immigrants being a distinct group rather than assimilating or conforming to the native fertility patterns.  Second, our results do not seem to confirm the presence of either disruption or family formation being key events associated with migration.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, Russian Federation, fertility, immigrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Luy
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Graziella Caselli
Title: The impact of a migration-caused selection effect on regional mortality differences in Italy and Germany
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2008
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2008-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2008-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Italy, ageing, migration trends, mortality, mortality determinants, regional demography, selective migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2008-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sylvia Keim
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andreas Klärner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Who is relevant? Exploring fertility relevant social networks
Abstract: Based on the analysis of qualitative interviews in western Germany we argue that social relationships have a strong impact on individuals´ and couples´ fertility intentions and behavior. We identify relevant others and mechanisms of influences. The core family is an important factor of influences but we are also able to show that social relationships beyond the core family of parents and siblings need to be considered when taking social influence on the family formation of individuals into account.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility, influence, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dora Kostova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The structure of recent first-union formation in Romania
Abstract: By European standards, consensual first unions have been rare in Romania, and they remain so even though their incidence has increased by a factor of almost five since the early 1960s. Rates of conversion of consensual unions into marriages have been cut in half over the same four decades or so, and marriage rates have declined by a similar factor since the fall of state socialism, which is more dramatic because this period is so much shorter. There have been strong ethnic differentials in union-entry rates in the country.
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Romania
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lesia Nedoluzhko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Victor Agadjanian
Title: Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: exploring interdependencies
Abstract: In our study we investigate interdependencies between entry into a marital union, childbirth, and migration. We apply event-history techniques to retrospective data on women aged 18-29 from a survey conducted in northern Kyrgyzstan in 2005 to examine how these events can influence one another, with a special focus on the effects of duration of exposure. In addition we analyze the impact of some individual characteristics on the propensity to get married, to become a mother, and to migrate. In our analysis we account for several duration dependences (‘clocks’). The results illustrate that months since marriage formation is the most important duration variable in the first-birth propensities model. Out-of-wedlock conception is associated with increased marriage risks. Migration is often a part of the family building process: high first-birth propensities of recent migrants as well as high migration risks among pregnant women are due to marriage-related migration.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Kyrgyzstan
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Zhen Zhang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The age separating early deaths from late deaths
Abstract: There is one unique age separating early deaths from late deaths such that averting an early death decreases life disparity, but averting a late death increases inequality in lifespans.
Length: 5 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katharina Frosch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do only new brooms sweep clean? A review on workforce age and innovation
Abstract: The relationship between age and creative performance has been found to follow a hump-shaped profile in the arts and sciences, and in great technological achievement. Accordingly, accelerating workforce aging raises concern about whether future capacity to innovate is endangered. This paper provides a review of existing studies exploring age effects on innovative performance, both at the individual and the macro levels.  Empirical evidence confirms the hump-shaped relationship between workers’ ages and innovative performance, with the highest levels of performance seen between ages 30 and 50, depending on the domain. Industrial invention in knowledge-intensive fields, and great invention in general, seem to be a young man’s game. Yet in more experience-based fields, innovative performance peaks later, and remains stable until late in the career.  Moreover, the quality of invention remains rather stable at older ages. However, individual-level evidence has to be interpreted with caution due to the presence of selectivity biases and unobserved heterogeneity.  Studies at the levels of firms, regions, and countries address some of these issues. Results of these studies have indicated that young professionals drive knowledge absorption, innovation, and technological progress, whereas more experienced workers are more relevant in mature technological regimes.  Apart from integrating the existing empirical evidence on different levels of aggregation, a strong focus is on methodological issues and conceptual challenges. This review therefore provides a sound basis for further studies on the impact of workforce aging on innovative performance. In addition, promising directions for future research are proposed.  
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sylvia Keim
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andreas Klärner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laura Bernardi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility-relevant social networks: composition, structure, and meaning of personal relationships for fertility intentions
Abstract: Although the relevance of social interactions or social networks for fertility research has been increasingly acknowledged in recent years, little is known about the channels and mechanisms of social influences on individualsï¿½ fertility decision making. Drawing on problem-centred interviews and network data collected among young adults in western Germany the authors show that qualitative methods broaden our understanding of social and contextual influences on couplesï¿½ fertility intentions, by exploring the phenomenon, taking into account subjective perceptions, analysing interactions within networks as well as the dynamics of networks. Qualitative methods allow for the collection and analysis of rich retrospective information on network dynamics in relation to life course events. This also can be helpful both to complement the still rare longitudinal data on social networks and to develop parsimonious and efficient survey instruments to collect such information in a standardized way.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility, qualitative methods, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Theodore P. Gerber
Title: Non-marital childbearing in Russia: second demographic transition or pattern of disadvantage?
Abstract: Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980-2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing in post-Soviet Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the primary cause of the increase in the proportion of nonmarital births is not due to the changing fertility behavior of cohabitors, nor to changes in union behavior after conception, but due to the increasing proportion of women who cohabit before conception. We also find that the relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has not changed over time; the least educated women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily due to a lower probability of legitimating a nonmarital conception. Based on these findings, we argue that Russia has more in common with the pattern of disadvantage in the United States, as opposed to the trends described by the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects of non-marital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/non_marital_childbearing_in_russia_second_demographic_transition_or_pattern_of_disadvantage_3513
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2009-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, cohabitation, family, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Junji Kageyama
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On the intertemporal allocation of consumption, mortality and life-history strategies
Abstract: This paper studies the bio-evolutionary origin of time preference. By examining human life-history strategies, it demonstrates that time discounting and mortality reflect the age-variation in the value of survival, which in turn depends on future reproduction and production. Consistent with empirical findings, it also suggests that our biologically endowed time preference is positive, reaches its lowest at around age twenty and increases thereafter, and is higher when exchange transactions involve a reduction in present consumption than when they involve an increase in present consumption.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Junji Kageyama
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Happiness and sex difference in life expectancy
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of happiness on the sex gap in life expectancy. Utilizing a cross-country data set, it first inspects the reverse effect of the life expectancy gap on happiness and demonstrates that the life expectancy gap negatively affects happiness through the composition of marital status. Taking this reverse causality into account, it shows that happiness is significant on explaining the differences in the life expectancy gap between countries. As national average happiness increases, the sex difference in life expectancy decreases. This is consistent with the findings that psychological stress (unhappiness)adversely affects survival and that the effect of psychological stress on mortality is more severe for men. This result provides an indirect evidence that happiness affects survival even at the national aggregate level.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: economic and social development, life expectancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Esther Geisler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Against all odds: fathers’ use of parental leave in Germany
Abstract: This paper investigates fathers’ usage of parental leave in Germany based on data from the microcenses 1999-2005. We consider two competing hypotheses. On the one hand, we argue that value change is a driving force behind fathers’ engagement in parenting activities. We assume that the ‘new father’ can more often be found among highly educated and urban men who are believed to be the forerunners in terms of new values and ideas. We contrast this hypothesis with the assumption that economic factors are the main determinants of men’s parental leave decisions. Our main finding is that fathers are more likely to be on parental leave if they have a highly educated or older partner. We also find that employment through a temporary working contract substantially lowers the chances that men will take advantage of parental leave, while being employed in the public sector increases the chances that men will use their parental leave entitlement.
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, employment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Matysiak
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Finding the "right moment" for the first baby to come: a comparison between Italy and Poland
Abstract: This goal of this study is  to add to our understanding of the impact of women’s human capital accumulation on the timing of first births. Applying intensity regression to national retrospective data, we examined the transition to motherhood in Italy and Poland.  These countries share several similarities – Catholicism, strong family ties, and considerable tensions between fertility and work – but also differ in female labor supply developments. Our life-course study illustrates that paid employment clearly discourages childbearing in Italy, at least among low- and medium-educated women. In Poland, by contrast, employment functions as a precondition to childbearing, irrespective of a woman’s educational level.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, Poland, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Matysiak
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Is Poland really 'immune' to the spread of cohabitation?
Abstract: Various data have constantly pointed out a low incidence of non-marital unions in Poland (at 1.4-4.9% among all unions). In this paper we demonstrate that these data, coming exclusively from cross-sectional surveys, clearly underestimate the scale of the phenomenon. By exploiting data on partnership histories we show that young Poles have been increasingly opting for cohabitation. Consequently, in the years 2004-2006 entries to cohabitation constituted about one third of all first union entries. Consensual unions are more widespread among the low social strata, but recently a clear increase in cohabitation has been observed also among the highly educated. Although the estimates of cohabitation incidence are far below those observed in Northern and Western Europe, our study suggests that Poland is not as ‘immune’ to the spread of consensual unions as it is commonly believed.
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/is_poland_really_immune_to_the_spread_of_cohabitation_3407
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2009-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nandita Saikia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Faujdar  Ram
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Trends in geographical mortality differentials in India
Abstract: This study examines the variation in mortality and mortality trends among different regions in India since the 1970s using data from the Sample Registration System (SRS). Evaluation of the SRS data quality confirms reliability for children and adults under the age of 60 years. Analysis of temporary life expectancy between the exact ages of 0 and 60 years shows that, after significant progress during the 1970s and 1980s, improvements in longevity slowed down in the 1990s and 2000s. The Gini coefficient and dispersion measure of mortality confirm the convergence of mortality across the regions in India between 1971–1975 and 2000–2004. In spite of this trend, a substantial difference between higher longevity in the south and lower longevity in the north was noteworthy in 2001–2004. Age decomposition of temporary life expectancy by age group 0–14 years and 15–59 years suggests that the steep longevity increase in the 1970s and 1980s was largely driven by a reduction in mortality in children under the age of 15 years. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the contribution of both young and adult age groups to longevity increase has diminished. India faces difficulties in making progress in further reductions of infant deaths to the minimum levels and also in fighting chronic and man-made diseases in individuals within older age groups.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: India, differential mortality, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny A. Kluge
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Transfers, consumption and income over the lifecycle in Germany
Abstract: This paper seeks to quantify all public and private interage monetary flows in Germany applying the National Transfer Account method. Germany's lifecycle deficit is shaped by long periods spent in education, early retirement, and low labor force participation rates among the older work force, resulting in a rather short surplus period. Germany is a picture book welfare state, over the last century the government took over more and more functions the family would once have absorbed. During the long dependent periods of childhood and old age, the main expenditures-including education for younger people and pensions and health care for older people-are publicly financed. Private consumption is low for these items. In contrast to public in-kind transfers, public cash transfers are highly skewed to the elderly. Special emphasis will be placed on differences in East/West lifecycle deficit patterns.
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sunnee Billingsley
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Downward mobility, unemployment and mortality
Abstract: This research offers fresh evidence 1) on the contribution of social mobility to health differentials by proposing a new link between downward mobility and health: downward mobility itself may have an immediate impact on health, above and beyond selection, origin or destination effects, and 2) on causes behind the mortality crisis in Russia by testing an innovative operationalization of the negative impact of economic crisis and transition. Specifically, downward mobility as well as unemployment are assessed in this study as possible contributors to increased risk of death from 1994-2005 in Russia. Using RLMS data and Cox proportional hazard models, the results demonstrate that men were at greater risk of mortality when they experienced downward mobility, relative to men who did not. Women’s mortality did not appear to be linked to downward mobility. Both men’s and women’s risk of death substantially increased when experiencing unemployment, relative to low-mid grade workers and relative to non-participation in the labor market. Whereas the impact of downward mobility appears immediate and short-term, the impact of unemployment was longer term and not limited to the year in which unemployment occurred for men. All findings were robust to adjustment of other potentially important factors such as alcohol consumption and health status that preceded downward mobility or unemployment. This robustness suggests that selection effect alone may not be a sufficient explanation for a high risk of death.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, health, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria A. Shkolnikova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Svetlana A. Shalnova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Victoria A. Metelskaya
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexander D. Deev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Biological mechanisms of disease and death in Moscow: rationale and design of the survey on Stress Aging and Health in Russia (SAHR)
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nataliia Levchuk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Alcohol and mortality in Ukraine
Abstract: Ukraine has experienced a long-term decline in life expectancy since the late 1960s. While spectacular improvement in longevity has been observed in Western countries, the trend in Ukraine has been accompanied by increasing or stagnating mortality. Although many studies indicate that alcohol is one of the leading contributors to low life expectancy in Eastern Europe, little is known about its impact on premature mortality in Ukraine. The aim of this study is to estimate alcohol-attributable deaths at working ages (20-64) in Ukraine. We investigate the contribution of alcohol to adult mortality between 1980 and 2007 using a new method for estimating alcohol-attributable fractions by causes of death. We also assess the public health burden of alcohol in terms of length of life losses. We find that in 2007 alcohol-related deaths constituted 40% and 22% of all deaths among adult men and women, respectively. The results also indicate that alcohol-related deaths at working ages account for approximately one-third of the male and one-fifth of the female life expectancy difference between Ukraine and western countries. Alcohol is an important public health threat in Ukraine and should be addressed by relevant measures.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tapani Valkonen
Title: To what extent do rising mortality inequalities by education and marital status attenuate the general mortality decline? The case of Finland in 1971-2030
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between growing inequality within the population, and the general mortality decline in Finland after 1971. The general mortality trend is considered as a simultaneous shift of population groups toward lower mortality over time, with the group-specific mortality rates linked to the mortality trend in the best practice (vanguard) group. The inequality measure accounting for all groups and their population weights reveals increases in both relative and absolute mortality inequalities. Changes in population composition by education and by marital status tend to compensate each other and the combined change does not produce significant effect on the total mortality. The widening of mortality inequalities produces important impact on the total mortality trend. The modeling allows to quantify this impact. If mortality inequalities remained frozen after 2000, the total mortality in 2026-30 would be by about one quarter lower compared to trend-based expectations.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, differential mortality, education, marital status
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Romania
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nancy S. Landale
Title: Adolescent precursors of early union formation among Asian American and Whites
Abstract: This study investigates the relatively low rates of early marriage and cohabitation among Asian Americans compared to Whites. With an emphasis on family value socialization and other precursors measured in adolescence, data from Waves 1 and 3 of Add Health are used to test five hypotheses. Analyses of early marriage indicate that the Asian-White difference is driven primarily by differences in adolescent sexual and romantic relationship experiences, and several measures of family values play a stronger role among Asian Americans than Whites. Asian-White differences in cohabitation persist net of SES and other adolescent precursors, but differences are attenuated when parental value socialization, intimate relationship experiences, and educational investments are controlled. These results are interpreted within a culturally sensitive conceptual framework that emphasizes independent versus interdependent construals of the self.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: America
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Wendy Sigle-Rushton
Author-Name: Renske Keizer
Author-Name: Trude Lappegård
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Caroline Berghammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paola Di Giulio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katja Köppen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The increase in fertility in cohabitation across Europe: examining the intersection between union status and childbearing
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, cohabitation, family formation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rolf Gehrmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: German census-taking before 1871
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, censuses
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sylvia Zühlke
Author-Name: Kerstin Schmidtke
Title: Eignet sich das Mikrozensus-Panel für familiensoziologische Fragestellungen? Untersuchung am Beispiel der Frage nach den ökonomischen Determinanten der Familiengründung
Abstract: The German microcensus is a rotating panel in which respondents are interviewed once per year for four years in a row. Recently, the microcensus panel 1996-1999 has been made available for scientific usage. This paper discusses the potential of the microcensus panel for inves-tigations in the field of fertility research. In the first part of the paper, we demonstrate how the data can be transformed into spell format so that event history models can be applied. Respondents become “under observation” when they are interviewed for the first time in 1996.  The “risk set” are female respondents aged 16-38 who are childless at first interview. They contribute exposure time to our investigation until the last interview is conducted or have a first child.  Based on this data set up, we have estimated a first birth model. Estimates are very much in line with previous findings on fertility behavior in Germany. But even though that our first investigations provide reasonable results, there are several shortcomings of the data, which we also discussed:  First, fertility histories are not surveyed in the microcensus. As others have done before, we have reconstructed fertility careers of female respondents based on the ages and numbers of the children who live in the same family unit. This procedure gives fairly good results for female respondents who are below age 39 at time of interview. Older respondents, and therefore fertility at higher ages, cannot be investigated with this data.   A second drawback is that there are no monthly employment histories available. However, information on the employment status at time of interview can be used.  We assumed here that the employment status that we measure at time of interview is fixed for the period of twelve months after interview. This is a very strong assumption for some indicators, such as unemployment.  However, for other employment indicators (such as whether the person is working in a public or private enterprise, whether the working contract is term-limited or not) this assumption should not be problematic.   A third downturn of the data is panel-attrition. The microcensus is a household-survey. When respondents leave the household, they are not surveyed any longer. This involves that panel-attrition is related to residential mobility.  In a ‘sensitivity analysis’ we show that panel attrition does not seem to bias our investigations. The paper concludes with a critical discussion on the scope and limits of the microcensus panel for fertility investigations.  
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Haan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katharina Wrohlich
Title: Can child care policy encourage employment and fertility? Evidence from a structural model
Abstract: In this paper we develop a structural model of female employment and fertility which accounts for intertemporal feedback effects between the two outcomes. We identify the effect of financial incentives on the employment and fertility decision by exploiting variation in the tax and transfer system which differs by employment state and number of children. To this end we simulate in detail the effects of the tax and transfer system including child care costs. The model provides estimates of structural preferences of women which can be used to study the effect of various policy reforms. In particular, we show that increasing child care subsidies conditional on employment increases labor supply of all women as well as fertility of the childless and highly educated women.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: employment, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tatjana Mika
Title: Welfare state context, female earnings and childbearing
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of female earnings in childbearing decisions in two very different European contexts. By applying event history techniques to German and Danish register data during 1981-2001, we demonstrate how female earnings relate to first, second and third birth rates. Our study shows that female earnings are rather positively associated with fertility in Denmark, while the relationship is the opposite in West Germany. We interpret our findings based on our observation that Danish social policies tend to encourage Danish women to become established in the labor market before having children, while German policies during the 1980s and 1990s were not designed to encourage maternal employment.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany
Abstract: For studying both individual-level and small-scale contextual influences on the effects of family policies on fertility, Multilevel Event History methods are the state-of-the-art. But in many countries, these methods cannot be applied because the available individual-level data are inadequate. This paper uses an alternative methodological framework that can be of help in these cases. It utilizes small-scale macro data, which is analyzed with Exploratory Data, Cluster, and Spatial Panel Model Analysis techniques. In a case study on the western German city of Bremen, the potential of this approach, as well as its limitations, are investigated. The study analyzes the impact of the parental leave reform of 1986 and the child benefit reform of 1996 on fertility levels in different city quarters (Stadtteile) of Bremen.   The results indicate that both family policy reforms had, at least in the short-term, a significant impact on fertility levels. These positive effects were stronger in economically disadvantaged quarters. The findings also suggest that the reforms affected the timing more than the quantum of fertility. With regard to the methodological framework, we can conclude that the Spatial Analysis with small-scale macro data is a useful alternative when there is no individual-level data available for carrying out a Multilevel Event History Analysis. 
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Bremen, Germany, family policies, fertility trends, methodology, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Theodore P. Gerber
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Maternity leave in turbulent times: effects on labor market transitions and fertility in Russia, 1985-2000
Abstract: Maternity leave policies are designed to ease the tension between women’s employment and fertility, but whether they actually play such a role remains unclear.  We analyze the individual-level effects of maternity leave on employment outcomes and on second conception rates among Russian first-time mothers from 1985-2000 using retrospective job and fertility histories from the Survey of Stratification and Migration Dynamics in Russia.  During this period Russia experienced tremendous economic and political turbulence, which many observers believed would undermine policies like maternity leave and otherwise adversely affect the situation of women.  Nevertheless, we find that maternity leave helped women maintain a foothold in the labor market, especially during the more turbulent post-transition period.  Also, women who took extended leave in connection with their first birth had elevated rates of second conceptions once they returned to the workforce.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, employment, fertility, maternity leave
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tomáš Sobotka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)
Abstract: Period fertility rates fell to previously unseen low levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of Total Fertility Rates under 1.3 raised the possibility of dramatic, rapid population aging as well as population decline. In an analysis of recent trends, we find, however, a widespread turn-around in so-called “lowest-low” fertility countries. The reversal has been particularly vigorous in Europe. The number of countries with period total fertility rates less than 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008, of which four (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) are in East Asia. Moreover, the upturn in the period TFR was not confined to lowest-fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in fertility stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic crisis may push down fertility in the short-run, we conclude that formerly lowest-low fertility countries should continue to see further increase in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later motherhood become less and less important.
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ji Cha
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Stochastically ordered subpopulations and optimal burn-in procedure
Abstract: Burn-in is a widely used engineering method which is adopted to eliminate defective items before they are shipped to customers or put into the field operation. In the studies of burn-in, the assumption of bathtub shaped failure rate function is usually employed and optimal burn-in procedures are investigated. In this paper, however, we assume that the population is composed of two ordered subpopulations and optimal burn-in procedures are studied in this context. Two types of risks are defined and an optimal burn-in procedure, which minimizes the weighted risks is studied. The joint optimal solutions for the optimal burn-in procedure, which minimizes the mean number of repairs during the field operation, are also investigated.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Understanding the shape of the mixture failure rate (with engineering and demographic applications)
Abstract: Mixtures of distributions are usually effectively used for modeling heterogeneity. It is well known that mixtures of DFR distributions are always DFR. On the other hand, mixtures of IFR distributions can decrease, at least in some intervals of time. As IFR distributions often model lifetimes governed by ageing processes, the operation of mixing can dramatically change the pattern of ageing. Therefore, the study of the shape of the observed (mixture) failure rate in a heterogeneous setting is important in many applications. We study discrete and continuous mixtures, obtain conditions for the mixture failure rate to tend to the failure rate of the strongest populations and describe asymptotic behavior as t tends to infty. Some demographic and engineering examples are considered. The corresponding inverse problem is discussed.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-031.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Junji Kageyama
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Why do women in former communist countries look unhappy? A demographic perspective
Abstract: This paper investigates the causes of the positive correlation between happiness and the sex gap in happiness between women and men observed in Europe. Departing from a variety of hypotheses that are based on the sex differences at the individual level, this paper tests whether the positive correlation can be explained by the sex difference in life expectancy. The mechanisms working behind are as follows. First, national average happiness affects the sex gap in life expectancy negatively because men are more fragile to stress (unhappiness). Second, the sex difference in life expectancy influences the sex gap in happiness negatively because it affects the chance of being a widow for women. Using a 3SLS approach, it found that both effects are significant and that the direct effects between happiness and the happiness gap are insignificant. These results indicate that the positive correlation between happiness and the happiness gap is an artifact of the demographic compositional effect resulted from the sex gap in life expectancy.
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-032.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, economic and social development, life expectancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Setsuya Fukuda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Shifting economic foundation of marriage in Japan: the erosion of traditional marriage
Abstract: Japan is one of few developed countries in which marriage and higher earning potential among women are negatively associated. As the proportion of births occurring outside of marriage remains low in Japan, fertility is still significantly influenced by marriage trends, which are in turn influenced by societal expectations regarding the marriageability of educated women. Previous studies have suggested that the economic independence associated with higher education is at the root of this negative relationship, but how persistent will this relationship prove to be? As women’s education rapidly catches up with men’s, there is reason to suspect that marriage trends are also in transition. This study examines the latest marriage-related behavior patterns among Japanese women from 2002 onward, focusing on the relationship between women’s economic emancipation and marriage in a gender-traditional society. Using a newly available large panel survey on young adults in Japan, it will demonstrate that the effects of women’s education have reversed, and are now in fact positive.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Japan, economic theory, education of women, event history analysis, marriage, mate selection, social change, women's emancipation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Harald Wilkoszewski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Age trajectories of social policy preferences: support for intergenerational transfers from a demographic perspective
Abstract: The political discourse on demographic change has gained momentum in many developed countries. When it began, the discussion centred on the question of how to influence population ageing through political means (e.g., by raising fertility rates). But political decision makers now seem to be concerned about the consequences of demographic change on societal dynamics, especially intergenerational relations. This is particularly evident in Germany, where the latest pension increase provoked a discussion about a possible transformation of the political system into a “gerontocracy”, in which the elderly control public resources to their own benefit. In this paper, we investigate whether there is evidence for such a scenario by looking at two main questions. First, what is the effect of age on preferences toward social policies, which organise public transfers between generations (family and pension policies)? Second, to what extent does a possible age effect depend on further demographic factors, such as parenthood and marriage, which represent the framework of an individual’s life course? In order to answer these questions, we use recent survey data (GGS 2005 and PPAS 2003), which we analyse by applying standard linear models as well as Generalised Additive Models. The latter allow us to identify the trajectories of a possible age effect and its dependency on other demographic variables. In contrast to most existing studies, our analyses show clear age effects: older people are less prone to support a variety of transfers to families than younger respondents. At the same time, the elderly are more prone to support pension policy reforms that put an even greater burden on the younger generation. We can also show that the age effects found are not always linear and follow different trajectories across the life course. We therefore argue that classical economic concepts cannot fully explain age-based support for intergenerational transfers. Age effects have to be seen in light of further demographic variables beyond a solely economically defined life cycle. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, demographic ageing, politics, population change, preferences
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Harald Wilkoszewski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elena Muth
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demographic change and the acceptance of population-related policies: a comparison of 13 European countries
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: European Union, demographic ageing, politics, population change, preferences
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kathryn Grace
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A comparative analysis of contraceptive use and intent in Guatemala
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kathryn Grace
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: David Carr
Title: The impact of the individual, the household and the community on fertility behavior in Petén, Guatemala
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-037.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Guatemala, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ina Jaschinski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Der Übergang in eine nacheheliche Partnerschaft: eine vergleichende Analyse zwischen Männern und Frauen auf Basis des deutschen Generations and Gender Surveys
Abstract: Due to continuous high marital dissolution rates, re-partnering becomes increasingly a regular life course experience. However, only few empirical studies have addressed the topic of re-partnering after divorce. This analysis uses data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) conducted in 2005 to study patterns of post-divorce union formation in Germany. Particular attention is given to potential gender differences. Surprisingly, the empirical investigation shows no major gender differences in re-partnering rates. High education increases re-partnering rates for both sexes. There is, however, a gender difference how age at divorce determines re-partnering behavior. While women who are older at divorce experience a rather low rate of re-partnering, we do not find such a clear pattern for their male counterparts. (Key words: post-divorce re-partnering, re-partnering, separation, divorce, event history) 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-038.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: divorce, separation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Barbara Zuber Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Social change and family change in a Central European urban context: Rostock 1819-1867
Abstract: This study is informed by competing perspectives on family behaviour in periods of turbulent social change, and intends to provide some fresh insights into the effect of macro-level changes on micro-level processes involving the family. In this pilot study, we take our first step towards analysing the impact of developing urban-industrial life on the family system in the northern German city of Rostock. A variety of quantitative approaches are employed to capture long-term changes in household structure and composition, household formation rules and patterns of leaving home in this historic Hanseatic community in two census years, 1819 and 1867. Overall, we can observe rather stable patterns for both the 1819 and 1867 censuses, with only small shifts away from more “traditional” towards more “modern” patterns of the family. Interestingly, the persistence of the family pattern in Rostock rested primarily on the continuity of nuclear family-centred patterns of co-residence. We were neither able to find evidence of a significant deterioration in the traditional pattern of the extended-family household, nor could we prove that a progressive nuclearisation of the family in Rostock took place between 1819 and 1867.
Length: 61 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, family demography, historical demography, urban population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Barbara Zuber Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Historical family systems and the great European divide: the invention of the Slavic East
Abstract: In 1940, almost two years into World War II, the book, “Agrarverfassung und Bevölkerung in Litauen und Weißrussland”(Agrarian constitution and population in Lithuania and Belarus), was published. The habilitation thesis of the young German historian Werner Conze, the book was an extensive study of premodern family patterns of the peasant serf population in Lithuania from the 16th to the 18th centuries. In an approach that was innovative for its time, Conze used a type of historical source which, up to that point, had not yet received a lot of interest, namely, quantitative data derived from original inventory lists of historic estates. The analysis of the data led Conze to detect a difference between West and East. The comparison emphasised the cultural divide between the Germans and the Slavs to the East by postulating smaller family sizes throughout the western or German-influenced part of historic Lithuania, and larger families with more complex structures throughout the Slavic parts of the country. Thus, Conze also suggested that population growth in the Lithuanian west had been restrained, while the Lithuanian east had experienced abundant population growth. Conze’s scientific insights remain present in today’s historical-demographic literature, and have become an essential building block of any argument in support of the validity and persistence of East-West differentials in family systems in East-Central Europe. Because of this study’s continued importance, it may prove useful to re-examine “Agrarverfassung und Bevölkerung,” looking at its auctorial and ideological context, its methodological procedures, and its empirical content. Our critical assessment of some of Conze’s basic assumptions reveals serious shortcomings in his analysis, which resulted from his tendency to make unwarranted inferences from non-representative and circumstantial evidence, and from his underlying motivation to search for German-Slavic differences. We will discuss the extent to which the pervading notion of the East-West divide in historical East-Central Europe must be revised in response to these shortcomings. By uncovering the inadequacies of Conze’s contribution, we hope to pave the way for a truly scientific understanding of familial characteristics of Eastern Europe, and to end the perpetuation of certain stereotypes of Slavic populations.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-041.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belarus, Germany, Lithuania, demographers, family forms, historical demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Zhen Zhang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James E. Oeppen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Losses of expected lifetime in the US and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses
Abstract: Patterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e†, a dispersion measure that also equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e†. The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The US is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy, but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. The difference is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the US. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e† correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and inter-country mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the US in particular. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death including heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-042.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-042
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-042
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-042

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Annette Baudisch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How ageing is shaped by trade-offs
Abstract: The evolution of different life history strategies and thus different ageing patterns essentially depends on the nature of the underlying trade-offs between survival and reproduction. To fully comprehend ageing, we need to understand these trade-offs.
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-043.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-043
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: ageing
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-043
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-043

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sandra Krapf
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Childcare and family ideology in Sweden
Abstract: This study examines the impact of public and private childcare supply and family ideologies on individual childbearing behavior in Sweden. We assume that childcare services facilitate the reconciliation of family and paid work. However, this relationship is not independent from family images like "dual-earners" or the "male-breadwinner". Although differences in family ideologies are not very pronounced in an egalitarian society like Sweden, we expect that childcare provision encourages young adults to start a family especially if dual-earner families are well accepted. In the empirical part, we use logistic regressions to analyze the entry into parenthood. Based on the Swedish survey "Family and Working Life in the 21st Century" and regional data for the years 2001 to 2003, we find that the probability to become parents is low in regions with a high level of childcare provision. However, in regions where non-familial childcare is highly accepted and, simultaneously, the childcare supply is high individuals are more likely to have a first child. This finding shows the importance of attitudes towards family arrangements on fertility behavior and childcare usage.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-044.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-044
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, child care
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-044
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-044

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nataliia Levchuk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Declining fertility in Ukraine: what is the role of abortion and contraception?
Abstract: In this paper we analyze the changing relationship between childbearing and abortion in Ukraine, which has had one of the world’s highest abortion rates and lowest fertility rates. Using the 2007 Ukrainian Demographic and Health Survey, we examine changes in abortion before and after the dramatic fertility decline.  We estimate event history models for first abortions as well as competing risks hazards by pregnancy outcome. Our results show that although abortion rates rapidly declined in the 1990s, abortions have impacted fertility by lowering second birth rates. On the other hand, abortions have been used less frequently for postponing first births, as is more common in developed countries. We also describe how this relationship has been maintained through the slow adoption of modern contraception. Thus, Ukraine represents a country with an unusual relationship between fertility, abortion, and contraception, and where low fertility has been achieved with little reliance on modern methods.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2009
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2009-045.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2009-045
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Ukraine, abortion
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2009-045
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-045

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anne Schulz
Title: Assessing old-age long-term care using the concepts of healthy life expectancy and care duration: the new parameter "Long-Term Care-Free Life-Expectancy (LTCF)"
Abstract: Achieving old ages is also connected with prevalence of illness and long-term care. With the introduction of the statutory long-term care insurance in 1996 and the long-term care statistics in 1999 research data of about 2.3 million people receiving long-term care benefits is available. Average life expectancy can be qualitatively divided into lifetime spent in good health and lifetime spent in long-term care dependence (average care duration). In Germany women’s and men’s average care duration amount 3.6 years respectively 2.1 years.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, ageing, laboratories, life expectancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anne Schulz
Author-Name: Michael Stegmann
Title: Zur Sterblichkeitsdifferenz von Männern im Ost-West-Vergleich
Abstract: Die Untersuchung der Sterblichkeit der sozialversicherungspflichtigen Beschäftigten des Jahres 2004 deckt die Gründe für die Unterschiede der Lebenserwartung bei Männern im Ost-West-Vergleich auf. Es wird gezeigt, dass die bestehenden strukturellen Unterschiede des Arbeitsmarktes in Ost- und Westdeutschland die Lebenserwartungsdifferenz bei Männern im Alter bis 65 Jahre erklären können.  Die multivariate Analyse von Individualdaten der 20 Millionen "Aktiv Versicherten" (Datensätze des Forschungsdatenzentrum der Rentenversicherung (FDZ-RV)) zeigt, dass die Berücksichtigung der Merkmale Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit, Selbstständigkeit, Versicherungsart und Staatsbürgerschaft geeignet sind, eine bis zu 30 % erhöhte Sterblichkeit der ostdeutschen Männer im Altersbereich von 35 bis 55 Jahre zu erklären.  Die Differenzen sind ein Ergebnis der unterschiedlichen Arbeitsmarktlage und der damit verbundenen kumulativen Migration in den letzten 30 Jahren.
Length: 11 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Germany (Alte Bundesländer), Germany (Neue Bundesländer), life expectancy, male mortality, unemployment, working-age population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kiyosi Hirosima
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Another tempo distortion: analyzing controlled fertility by age-specific marital fertility rate
Abstract: The rise in marital fertility in East Asian societies with very low fertility has been reported through analyses using the age-specific marital fertility rate (AMFR). Though the measure is often considered related to the average number of children married women have (CMF), we demonstrated that such an interpretation is often erroneous (AMFR problem) and valid only under limited conditions in more or less controlled fertility, a fact that has been known by some researchers. We conducted numerical simulations based on a simple mathematical model. Holding completed marital fertility (CMF) constant, tempo changes in the age-specific marriage rate and in the duration-specific marital fertility produce a parallel and opposite change in the AMFR, respectively. Note that the former is in the opposite direction of demographic translation. This means that a change in the AMFR caused by such tempo changes may cancel the change in the CMF thus leading to an erroneous interpretation. We should be careful in using the AMFR when the age at marriage or the tempo in duration-specific marital fertility changes or differs notably. Hence, the observed rise in the AMFR should be interpreted after subtracting the enormous effect by such tempo changes so as to avoid exaggeration of the marriage rate decline and negligence of marital fertility decline. This problem may even apply to some developing countries or Western societies.
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Wendy Sigle-Rushton
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Trude Lappegård
Author-Name: Caroline Berghammer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Renske Keizer
Title: The educational gradient of nonmarital childbearing in Europe: emergence of a pattern of disadvantage?
Abstract: Nearly every European country has experienced some increase in nonmarital childbearing, largely due to increasing births within cohabitation. Relatively few studies in Europe, however, investigate the educational gradient of childbearing within cohabitation or how it changed over time. Using retrospective union and fertility histories, we employ competing risk hazard models to examine the educational gradient of childbearing in cohabitation in 8 countries across Europe. In all countries studied, birth risks within cohabitation demonstrated a negative educational gradient. When directly comparing cohabiting fertility with marital fertility, the negative educational gradient persists in all countries except Italy, although differences were not significant in Austria, France, and Germany. These findings suggest that childbearing within cohabitation largely follows a Pattern of Disadvantage. We argue that the Pattern of Disadvantage developed due to: 1) feminist and social movements that liberalized attitudes towards nonmarital childbearing, and 2) globalization and economic uncertainty that led to job insecurity and relationship instability. This explanation provides an alternative to the Second Demographic Transition theory, for which we find little evidence.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/the_educational_gradient_of_childbearing_within_cohabitation_in_europe_3939
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, childbearing, cohabitation, family formation, fertility, UN, unmarried mothers
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Saskia C. Hin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Families and states: citizenship and demography in the Greco-Roman world
Abstract: This paper investigates the interrelationship between states and families. At different levels of organization, both play a large role in shaping the context in which individuals live their lives. Yet when it comes to understanding key demographic events in the ancient Mediterranean world – birth, marriage, migration, family structures, and death – they are hardly brought together. In this paper, I argue that Greek and Roman demographic patterns were tightly connected with their own specific political-institutional frameworks that developed over the course of (city-)state formation processes.  This interaction was shaped in particular by the emergence of diverging notions of citizenship in the Greek and the Roman world, which went hand in hand with the installment of disparate incentives and disincentives to certain demographic behaviors. Differing citizenship criteria, in other words, invoked different demographic behaviors. A ‘political demography’ perspective, therefore, helps us understand how and why Greek and Roman individuals selected their marriage candidates on different criteria, and sheds light on divergences in their respective emphases on extended family ties. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Thomas Cassidy
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How slowing senescence changes life expectancy
Abstract: Mortality decline has historically been a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. The slope of mortality increase with age has been remarkably stable. A number of leading researchers on aging, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of aging, lessening the rate at which mortality increases as we get older. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result is analogous to Keyfitz's "entropy" relationship for changing the level of mortality. Interestingly, the influence of the shape of the baseline schedule on the effect of senescence changes is the complement of that found for level changes. We also provide a generalized formulation that mixes level and slope effects.
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Setsuya Fukuda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leaving the parental home in post-war Japan: social, economic and demographic determinants
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between home-leaving intensities of young adults and the rapid social, economic, and demographic changes that took place in post-World War II Japan. By using event-history modeling, the study shows that the declines in sibling numbers and in rural residence discourage young adults from leaving home before marriage. The practice of stem-family norms helps to explain the delay to some extent. Finally, marriage delay has a substantial impact on later home-leaving as leaving home is closely linked with marriage in Japan.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Japan, adulthood, economic growth, employment, event history analysis, household, marriage, modernization, school enrollment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nancy S. Landale
Title: Teen overweight, weight stigma, and intimate relationship development from adolescence to young adulthood
Abstract: With an emphasis on how weight stigma is manifested in social relationship context, this study explores two under-studied consequences of adolescent overweight, timing of first sex and subsequent intimate relationship development. The data employed come from Waves I to III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The results indicate that overweight adolescents have significantly later onset of first sex and are more likely to enter early adulthood without any intimate relationship experience when compared to normal-weight youth. Overweight adolescents are vulnerable to discriminatory treatments such as being rejected by or having less close relationships with peers and are thus less likely to have any intimate relationship. The study contributes to the existing literature on overweight youth by revealing the critical role of prejudiced social encounters in peer relationships as the key context that hinders the development of intimate relationships from adolescence to early adulthood. Future studies should seek to understand the broader implications of poor social adjustments during adolescence for later development.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The relative importance of shocks in a cohort's early and later life conditions on age-specific mortality
Abstract: The relative importance of a cohort’s early life conditions, compared to later period conditions, on adult- and old-age mortality is not known. This paper studies how cohort-level mortality depends on shocks in the cohort’s early and later life (period) conditions. I use cohort’s own mortality as a proxy for the early life conditions, and define shocks as deviations from trend. Using historical data for five European countries I find that shocks in early life conditions are only weakly associated with cohort’s later mortality. This may be because individual-level health is robust to early life conditions, or because at the cohort-level scarring, selection and immunity cancel each other. Shocks in period conditions, measured as deviations from trend in period child mortality, are strongly and positively correlated with mortality at all older ages. The results suggest that at the cohort-level period conditions drive mortality change.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frederik Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ines Wlosnewski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The German Birth Order Register - order-specific data generated from perinatal statistics and statistics on out-of-hospital births 2001-2008
Abstract: Until 2008, Germany’s vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at first birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specific birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using hospital statistics on births to generate birth order-specific fertility rates for the period 2001 to 2008. Hospital statistics include information on births that took place in German hospitals. Out-of-hospital deliveries, which account for about two percent of all births, are not included in the hospital data. In a sensitivity analysis, we show how robust our estimates are to the inclusion of out-of-hospital births. Our general assessment is that the hospital data are a valuable source for generating order-specific fertility rates, regardless of whether out-of-hospital births are included.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karolin Kubisch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Harmonized histories: manual for the preparation of comparative fertility and union histories
Abstract: This document describes the standardization process of the Harmonized Histories. The Harmonized Histories is a comparative database of rich reproductive and union histories from surveys conducted in a number of countries in Europe. Given that birth and union data has been collected in a number of ways in different surveys, it has been very difficult to conduct cross-national analyses of recent union and fertility behavior over time.  A team of researchers called the Nonmarital Childbearing Network has cleaned and standardized the surveys according to guidelines set out in this manual. Currently, the database includes data from the Generations and Gender Surveys (GGSs) in Italy, Germany, France, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Russia; the 2003 Dutch Fertility and Family Survey; and the British Household Panel Survey.    
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family formation, fertility, surveys
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Culture revisited: a geographic analysis of fertility decline in Prussia
Abstract: In this paper, we re-introduce geography into the analysis of fertility decline in the first demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway et al.'s (1994) Prussian data, fitting structural models similar to those of Galloway et al. to the data and to map the residuals. Our findings give evidence both of the predictive effect of economic as well as cultural variables. However, although testing different non-spatial model specifications, a significant unexplained geographic clustering of fertility decline always remains. Indeed, adjacency to an area of large fertility decline and location along communication and transport corridors seem to be important predictors of fertility decline beyond what one would expect from structural models. This gives support to the cultural diffusion hypothesis of the Princeton European Fertility Project.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/spatial_analysis_of_the_causes_of_fertility_decline_in_prussia_5299
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, culture, diffusion of innovations, economics, fertility decline, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Probabilistic forecasting using stochastic diffusion models, with applications to cohort processes of marriage and fertility
Abstract: We study prediction and error propagation in Hernes, Gompertz, and logistic models for innovation diffusion. We develop a unifying framework in which the models are linearized with respect to cohort age and predictions are derived from the underlying linear process. We develop and compare methods for deriving the predictions and show how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate prediction uncertainty for a wide class of underlying linear processes. For an important special case, random walk with, we develop an analytic prediction variance estimator. Both the Monte Carlo method and the analytic variance estimator allow the forecasters to make precise the level of within-model prediction uncertainty in innovation diffusion models. Empirical applications to first births, first marriages and cumulative fertility illustrate the usefulness of these methods.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Deniz D. Karaman Örsal
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility
Abstract: This paper investigates whether there has been a fundamental change in the importance of economic conditions on fertility. Through the 1980s econometric studies had found at best a mixed, neutral or negative effect of economic conditions on fertility. Notably, Butz and Ward (1979) concluded that fertility was counter-cyclical, with fertility falling in good times, as the opportunity costs of childbearing rose. More recently, there have been signs that fluctuations in fertility have been pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher birth rates, and the recent recession with lower birth rates. In this paper, we use panel methods to study short term changes in aggregate fertility and economic measures in OECD countries from 1976-2008. We find indeed that fertility became positively associated with good economic conditions. Furthermore, the increasing importance of economic conditions was detected for both tempo and quantum.
Length: 15 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: economic conditions, total fertility rate
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Thomas Cassidy
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohort postponement and period measures
Abstract: We introduce a new class of models in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. We show how this model fits into a general framework of period and cohort postponement that includes the existing models in the literature, notably those of Bongaarts and Feeney and Kohler and Philipov. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo-adjusted measure of period total fertility in the absence of observed shifts. Simulation reveals that when postponement is governed by cohorts, the cohort-based indicator outperforms the Bongaarts and Feeney model that is now in widespread use. The cohort-based model is applied to fertility in several modern populations.
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Wagner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The ages of extremal impact on life disparity caused by averting deaths
Abstract: This paper is concerned with sensitivity analysis of life disparity with respect to changes in mortality rates. Recently Zhang and Vaupel introduced a ”threshold age”, such that averting deaths before that age reduces disparity, while averting deaths after that age increases disparity. We provide a reﬁnement to this result by characterizing the ages at which averting deaths has an extremal impact on life disparity. A procedure is given for approaching the threshold age numerically. The results are illustrated using data for the female populations of Denmark, the US, Japan and France in 2005. [Keywords: life disparity, sensitivity analysis, mortality changes, threshold age]
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Real and synthetic household populations and their analysis: an example of early historical micro-census data (Rostock, 1819)
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to report on an initial validation of methods for dealing with micro-census data with no delineated households. After describing the 1819 census of Rostock we test the possibilities of using an algorithm that creates households according to a strictly defined set of rules. The census of 1867 will be taken as our reference point for designing such rules of assigning people to household units and for assessing the appropriateness of the algorithm’s fit to the census of 1819. In the final part we discuss the outcome of the algorithm for different groups within the urban population and the strengths and weaknesses of this approach. Keywords: algorithm, census, delineating household
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arseniy S. Karkach
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alexei Romanioukha
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A discrete-time model of metabolic adaption to recurring diet changes of Medfly females
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alexei Romanioukha
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Arseniy S. Karkach
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James R. Carey
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Yashin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Adaptive trade-off in C. capitata is a characteristic feature of the long-lived subpopulation
Abstract: The conception of the cost of reproduction provides an important insight on connection between fertility and life span in living organisms. Despite substantial progress in understanding this connection many important features of fertility-longevity trade-off are masked by confounding factors, and remain poorly understood. We performed reanalysis of experimental data on fertility and longevity in medflies and discovered a physiological fertility-longevity trade-off especially pronounced in the long lived fraction of the population. The presence of such trade-off suggests existence of common metabolic resource shared between reproduction and somatic maintenance in a fly. We show that in addition to sugar, protein and any other essential components of the yeast the presence of at least one more component in the diet is required to explain the adaptive trade-off between longevity and reproduction in response to environmental conditions. We suggest and discuss a principle of dynamic resource allocation which explains the fertility–longevity trade-off phenomenon for these flies. Adaptive allocation of metabolic and other resources allows flies to tailor their life history parameters to the environment. Due to limitations of the physiological adaptation different individuals may be genetically “preadapted” to different living conditions thus contributing to population stability and heterogeneity.
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Trifon I. Missov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Analytic expressions for life expectancy in Gamma-Gompertz Mortality Settings
Abstract: In a population with Gamma-distributed individual frailty and Gompertz-distributed mortality there is a closed-form analytic expression for calculating the life-expectancy integral. Several simplifications of the resulting formula serve as plausible approximations.
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A behavioral Gompertz model for cohort fertility schedules in low and moderate fertility populations
Abstract: In this paper, I re-introduce the Gompertz model of age-specific fertility. This model has been rejected by past authors as fitting poorly to cross-sectional, or period rates. However, I find that the model fits very well to recent medium and low fertility cohort schedules in France, Italy, and Japan. A distinct advantage of the Gompertz model is that it has a simple behavioral interpretation as the result of social diffusion of fertility behavior in a cohort competing with the fertility-depressing effects of older age. The Gompertz model, and further refinements that include a better specification of the biological limits of childbearing, offer a means for forecasting future fertility, describing temporal change, and assessing the fertility-limiting effects of older entry into motherhood. In addition, the Gompertz function allows for traditional uses of model age-schedules such as smoothing and correction of data. The model estimates the completed cohort fertility of French, Japanese, and Italian cohorts born in 1965 to be 2.0 , 1.6, and 1.6, respectively. For France, this represents only a minor decline from earlier cohorts, but for Japan the decline in cohort fertility is marked. The model with infertility suggests that recent decline in Italy is largely due to shifts to older ages of childbearing.  
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A secular trend toward earlier male maturity: evidence from shifting ages of young adult mortality
Abstract: This paper shows new evidence of a steady long-term decline in age of male sexual maturity since at least the mid-eighteenth century. A method for measuring the timing of male maturity is developed based on the age at which male young adult mortality accelerates. The method is applied to mortality data from Sweden, Denmark, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The secular trend toward earlier male sexual maturity parallels the trend toward earlier menarche for females, suggesting that common environmental cues influence the speed of both males’ and females’ sexual maturation.
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anne Hornung
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karolin Kubisch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ina Jaschinski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility and union histories from German GGS data: some critical reflections
Abstract: This paper validates the fertility and union histories of the German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). One major result from this validation is that the fertility of the older GGS-cohorts is too low, while it is too high for the younger cohorts. For partnership histories, we find a similar bias. In sum, the GGS gives wrong cohort fertility and marriage trends for Germany. We speculate on various sources for this bias in the data. However, we were unable to find a remedy to cure it. 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Adam Lenart
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Trifon I. Missov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Linking period and cohort life expectancy in Gompertz proportional hazards models
Abstract: Adult mortality decline was the driving force of life-expectancy increase in many developed countries in the second half of the twentieth century. In this paper we study one of the most widely used models to capture adult human mortality - the Gompertz proportional hazards model. In its standard settings we, first, derive analytic expressions for period and cohort life expectancy. In addition we formulate a necessary and sufficient condition for the unboundedness of life expectancy. Secondly, we prove that if mortality decreases in time at all ages by the same proportion, both period and cohort life expectancy at birth increase linearly. Finally, we derive simple formulae that link period and cohort life expectancy to one another. They imply that if period life expectancy at birth increases steadily by three months per year, which has been the case for the best-practice country since 1840, then the corresponding cohort life expectancy rises constantly by four months per year.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
Number: WP-2010-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mathematical demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rachel Margolis
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A global perspective on happiness and fertility
Abstract: The literature on fertility and happiness has neglected comparative analysis. We investigate the fertility-happiness association using data for 86 countries. We find that globally, happiness decreases with the number of children. This association, however, is strongly modified by individual and contextual factors. Most importantly, we find that the association between happiness and fertility evolves from negative to neutral to positive above age 40, and is strongest among those who are likely to benefit most from upward intergenerational transfers. In addition, analyses by welfare regime show that the negative fertility-happiness association for younger adults is weakest in countries with high public support for families, and the positive association above age 40 is strongest in countries where old-age support depends mostly on the family. Overall these results suggest that children are a long-term investment in well-being, and highlight the importance of the life-cycle stage and contextual factors in explaining the happiness-fertility association.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cohort overlays of evolving childbearing patterns: how postponement and recuperation are refl ected in period fertility trends
Abstract: Combining cohort and period perspectives a method is developed that follows the process of childbearing postponement and recuperation and its reflection in total period fertility levels and trends in low fertility populations. It is complementary to methods pioneered by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) estimating tempo-adjusted period total fertility rates. The method can be characterized as revealing the internal structural mechanism of the postponement and recuperation process. It is applied to analyzing the fertility history of Western countries, Southern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and East Asia during the past half century. Our research concludes that period fertility descents and troughs, for instance, “lowest-low” fertility, as well as increases and peaks are a reflection of changing cohort childbearing patterns due to fertility postponement and recuperation combined with overlays of successive birth cohorts. Period fertility troughs occurred in Western countries during the 1980s, in Central and Eastern Europe around 2000.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny A. Kluge
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How East and West Germans finance their lifecycle consumption: evidence from NTA
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kenneth C. Land
Author-Name: Zhenglian Wang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Danan Gu
Title: Household and population projections at sub-national levels: an extended cohort-component approach
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Miguel Sánchez Romero
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Concepció Patxot
Author-Name: Elisenda Renteria
Author-Name: Guadalupe Souto
Title: From transfers to capital: analyzing the Spanish demand for wealth using NTA
Abstract: Inter- and intra-family transfers are a very important part of our daily economic activity. These transfers, whether familial or public, may influence our economic decisions to the same extent that financial markets do. In this paper, we seek to understand how the Spanish stock of capital will evolve if the set of intergenerational transfers observed in year 2000 are maintained in the future. With that aim in mind, we have implemented a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic public and familial transfers drawn from the National Transfer Accounts project (NTA). Given that familial transfers go from parents to children, and public transfers go from children to parents, we show that the Spanish baby boom and baby bust will make the second demographic dividend temporary, and that welfare will be reduced from 2040 onwards.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-029.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, demographic ageing, economic demography, economic growth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Spatial variation in household structures in 19th-century Germany
Abstract: Historical Germany represents a perfect laboratory for studying interregional demographic differences, yet the historical family structures in this part of the European continent remain largely unexplored. This study seeks to fill this gap by documenting the variability of living arrangements using an aggregate measure of household complexity based on published statistics of the German census of 1885. We apply descriptive methods and spatially sensitive modelling techniques to this data in order to examine existing hypotheses on the determinants of household complexity in historical Europe. We investigate how regional variation in agricultural structures and employment, inheritance practices, ethnic background, and other socio-demographic characteristics relate to regional variation in household structures. Our results show that areas with low levels of household complexity were concentrated in south-western and southern Germany, while areas with high levels of household complexity were mostly situated in northern and north-eastern Germany. Contrary to our expectations, we found that the supposedly decisive socio-economic and cultural macro-regional differences that are known to have existed in late 19th-century Germany were at most only weakly associated with existing spatial patterns of household complexity. Our results tend to support Ruggles’ (2009) view that spatial variation in household structures is mostly linked to the degree of employment in agriculture and demographic characteristics.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/spatial_variation_in_household_structures_in_19th_century_germany_5150
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-030.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, family forms, historical demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel A. Levitis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laurie Bingaman Lackey
Title: Human longevity and post-fertile survival are not predicted by primate allometric patterns
Abstract: The tendency of women to outlive their own fertility has been explained allometrically, with age at reproductive cessation attributed to ovarian follicle depletion in allometrically appropriate ovaries, and longevity related to brain and body scaling. However, because women's age at reproductive cessation is extraordinarily early compared to their longevity, we question whether both of these aspects of our demography can be predicted from primate allometric patterns. We employ a measure of longevity more useful for interspecies comparisons than the traditionally used maximum longevity to examine these allometric patterns. Using information-criterion based model selection, we find that brain size alone, rather than body size or their combined effects, produces preferred predictive models of longevity and of age at reproductive cessation. These models predict human longevity of 54-60 years, well below observed values, but accurately predict women's age at reproductive cessation. Rejecting previous conclusions, we find that human longevity, and; therefore, human post-fertile survival, are not predicted by primate patterns. We suggest that women's allometrically inappropriate longevity, and post-fertile survival, cannot be sufficiently explained in terms of proximate and phylogenetic constraints, and must be explained in terms of the unusual selective costs and benefits experienced by older women.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
Number: WP-2010-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: evolution
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel A. Levitis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Laurie Bingaman Lackey
Title: To care or to fight: must primate males choose?
Abstract: Females in all mammalian species care for their offspring, while most mammalian males do not. This failure of paternal investment is generally explained in terms of a trade-off between paternal care and mating competition. While there has been great interest in the optimal pattern of investment in paternal care versus mating effort, comparative evidence that such a trade-off exists has not been published for any large group of mammal species. We employ comparative data on primates to test for such a trade-off. Across primate species, the degree to which males engage in direct care of young is inversely related to levels of overt male-male conflict, and to canine dimorphism, a morphological measure associated with male-male conflict. When phylogeny is taken into account, there is no significant relationship between sex-biased longevity and whether males engage in care, implying that investment in care and investment in competition are functional alternatives to each other. Males of most primate species engage in either intensive direct care, or intense or frequent intrasexual competition, but not both. The hypothesis that investment in care and in intrasexual conflict are alternative strategies is strongly supported. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
Number: WP-2010-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: East Germany overtakes West Germany: recent trends in order-specific fertility dynamics
Abstract: Some 20 years after unification, the contrast between East and West Germany provides a unique natural experiment for studying the persistence of communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and the complexities of the process of fertility postponement.  After unification, fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. The number of births per year fell 60 percent. The period total fertility rate (TFR) reached a low of 0.8. Since the middle of the 1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the nearly constant rates seen in the West. By 2008, the TFR of East Germany had overtaken that of the West. In this paper, we explore why fertility in the East is higher than in West Germany, despite the severe economic situation in the East, whether the East German TFR will increase even further in the future, and whether the West German rate will remain at the constantly low level that has prevailed since the 1970s.  This article seeks to shed some light on these questions by (a) giving an account of the persisting East-West differences in attitudes towards and constraints on childbearing, (b) conducting an order-specific fertility analysis of recent fertility trends, and (c) projecting completed fertility for the recent East and West German cohorts. In addition to using the Human Fertility Database, we draw upon Perinatal Statistics, which enable us to conduct an order-specific fertility analysis. This new data source allows us to calculate a tempo-corrected TFR for East and West Germany, which has not been available previously.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-033.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nora E. Sánchez Gassen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The reciprocal relationship between the state and union formation across Western Europe: policy dimensions and theoretical considerations
Abstract: Although cohabitation and childbearing within cohabitation has increased dramatically in Europe over the past decades, the variation across Europe remains remarkable. Most studies on changing union formation have not explicitly addressed how state policies may be facilitating cohabitation or, alternatively, stalling the increase of cohabitation by privileging marriage. Indeed, the relationship between policies and union formation is complicated, as states may have passed legislation in response to increasing cohabitation. As a first step to understanding this reciprocal relationship, we provide here an overview of the policies that may impact union formation. Drawing on secondary sources and legal documents, we describe the policy dimensions that regulate the relationship between couples, and between couples and their children. We also discuss theoretical issues and explore examples from across Western Europe. As a whole, this overview raises questions about the changing “institution” of marriage, as well as the increasing “institutionalization” of cohabitation.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-034.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, cohabitation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ulrich Pfister
Author-Name: Georg Fertig
Title: The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results
Abstract: The paper presents the project of an aggregative reconstruction of the population of Ger-many from the sixteenth century to 1840, when official statistics began to provide complete coverage of all German states. The creation of estimates of population size and of annual series of the crude birth, marriage and death rates rests on three types of sources: First, pairs of partial censuses of hearths, taxpayers, communicants, etc. for the same regional aggregate at two different points in time are used to derive annual growth rates of popula-tion. This information is used to derive approximate estimates of total population size in ten-year intervals. Second, to develop aggregate series of vital events the project aims to analyse approximately 450 to 600 parish registers. Third, the project makes use of proto-statistical material on population size and the number of vital events that states began to collect selectively from c. 1740. On the basis of material from Gehrmann (2000), from published studies on c. 140 parishes and from selected other sources we construct a pre-liminary dataset for the period 1730–1840. Our cumulative rates of natural increase are broadly consistent with independent estimates of population growth. We use these series for two explorative analyses: First, on the basis of inverse projection we generate tentative estimates of the gross reproduction rate, of life expectancy and the dependency ratio. The results suggest an increase of the life expectancy and of the dependency ratio, the latter being the result of persistent population growth. Second, by adding a real wage series we study Malthusian adaptation with two methods, namely, VAR and time varying cumulated lag regression. The results consistently suggest the presence of both the preventive and the positive check during the eighteenth century. Whereas the preventive check persisted into the nineteenth century, mortality became exogenous in the early nineteenth century. Par-ticularly the 1810s turn out as a period of major change in at least three dimensions: real wages increased, life expectancies rose, and the positive check disappeared. Thus, Germany became a non-Malthusian economy well before the advent of industrialisation. Additional information suggests that market integration was a driving force behind this process.
Length: 72 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-035.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, history, population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Barbara Zuber Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Living arrangements and household formation in the crucible of social change: Rostock 1867-1900
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2010
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2010-036.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2010-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, household, living conditions
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Stem families, joint families, and the European pattern: how much of a reconsideration do we need?
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family, stem family
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Schnettler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anja Steinbach
Title: An evolutionary perspective on perceived parental care and closeness in adolescents: how do biological and social kinship play out within families in the U.S.?
Abstract: Consistent with inclusive fitness theory, evolutionary biologists predict that individuals care more for their biological than their social children and hence that biological children assess the relationships to their parents better than stepchildren. To test this assumption, we use data from the U.S. National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Unlike many other studies that have been conducted so far, this  survey allows us to analyze the consequences of the dynamic between social and biological parent-child relationships within the same families. We use comparisons of sibling pairs and fixed-effects regression to achieve the within-family comparison. Both the descriptive and multivariate regression results confirm that – even after controlling for other relevant influences – biological parenthood matters with regard to children's  relationship assessments (perceived parental care and closeness of the parent-child relationship) and in both the relationships to resident fathers and mothers. In the discussion, we comment on the possible integration of the evolutionary and sociological perspectives and close with some recommendations for future data collection that could allow researchers to analyze the relative influence of biological and social influences on parent-child relationships on a more fine-grained level.
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marion Burkimsher
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ina Jaschinski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility data for German speaking countries. What is the potential? Where are the pitfalls?
Abstract: This paper gives an overview of fertility data for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the availability of order-specific fertility data. We discuss the quality of data provided by the Statistical Offices, both birth registration data and censuses or microcensuses. In addition, we explore how social science surveys can be used to generate order-specific fertility indicators, and compare fertility estimates across surveys with estimates from vital statistics. Prior studies have shown that there is a ’family bias’ in most surveys, with the fertility of the younger cohorts being overstated, because respondents with young children are easier to reach by the interviewers. Our assessment of various types of surveys from the three different countries does mostly support this notion. However, the ‘family bias’ is most pronounced in family surveys while all-purpose surveys suffer from it to a lesser extent. Weighting the data does not fully cure the ‘family bias’, which we attribute to the fact that the number of children is usually not considered in the sampling weights that are provided by the survey agencies and the Statistical Offices. The confounding role of migration in the production of reliable and comparable fertility statistics is also discussed.
Length: 71 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Trifon I. Missov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Admissible mixing distributions for a general class of mixture survival models with known asymptotics
Abstract: Statistical analysis of data on the longest living humans leaves room for speculation whether the human force of mortality is actually leveling o®. Based on this uncertainty, we study a mixture failure model, introduced by Finkelstein and Esaulova (2006) that generalizes, among others, the proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models. In this paper we, first, extend the Abelian theorem of these authors to mixing distributions, whose densities are functions of regular variation. In addition, taking into account the asymptotic behavior of the mixture hazard rate prescribed by this Abelian theorem, we prove three Tauberian-type theorems that describe the class of admissible mixing distributions. We illustrate our findings with examples of popular mixing distributions that are used to model unobserved heterogeneity.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/admissible_mixing_distributions_for_a_general_class_of_mixture_survival_models_with_known_asymptotics_4124
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2011-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan F. Fox
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Public health, poor relief and improving urban child mortality outcomes in the decade prior to the New Deal
Abstract: This paper examines the effectiveness of the public health education and poverty relief programs prior to the New Deal.  Prior researchers have speculated these programs contributed to the declining mortality rates during the 1920s, but have been unable to econometrically estimate their impact across a large set of cities.  Data on municipal health education and social insurance expenditures is used to separately estimate how effective each of these programs were at reducing infant and child mortality.  The effects are identified using the within variation for a panel of 68 cities over 10 years, with estimates suggesting that it was primarily spending on health education which led to lower infant and child mortality during the 1920s.  Additionally, for both the infant and child age groups, the education programs required a two-year lag to generate an effect.  Fixed effects estimates indicate that 1 dollar of per capita public health education spending in year t translated to about  a 0.93 unit drop in the infant mortality rate in year t+2, and about a .02 unit drop in the crude death rate for children aged 1 to 4.  In terms of actual municipal expenditures during this period, these estimates show that cities in the top quartile of public health education spending experienced an additional 2.4 unit average annual decline in their infant mortality rates than did cites in the bottom percentile.  JEL codes I18, I38, and N32
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, child mortality, health education, infant mortality, public health, social welfare
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Roberta Torre
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Income inequality and population health: a panel data analysis on 21 developed countries
Abstract: The relative income-health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is one of the key determinants of population health. The discussion on the age and gender patterns of this association is still open. We test the relative income-health hypothesis using a panel data covering 21 developed countries for over 30 years. We find that net of trends in GDP per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality, measured by the Gini index, is strongly and positively associated with male and female mortality up to age 15. For women the association vanishes at older ages, but for men persists up to age 50. These findings suggest that policies decreasing income inequality may improve the health of children and young- to middle-aged men. The mechanisms behind the income inequality-mortality association are not known, but may be related to parental stress and male competition. Future research could focus on unravelling these mechanisms
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/income_inequality_and_population_health_an_analysis_of_panel_data_for_21_developed_countries_1975_2006_5157
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2011-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: OECD countries, income distribution, mortality, panmixia
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Liat Raz-Yurovich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic determinants of divorce among dual-earner couples: Jews in Israel
Abstract: How relevant are the available theoretical perspectives on marriage dissolution for understanding modern family forms? By employing a unique set of longitudinal register-based data for the Jewish population in Israel, this study seeks to find out which of the major theoretical perspectives on economic determinants of divorce best explains the transition to divorce among dual-earner couples. Our findings appear to support theories that assert asymmetry and power relations between the spouses. The women's economic independence hypothesis is not confirmed by our results, which indicate that the wife’s earnings do not affect divorce risk. In line with theories of income pooling, higher shared salaries are found to increase marital stability. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate that the basic assumption of symmetry between the spouses in these theories does not hold. Although employment stability for both spouses appears to reduce divorce risk, only the husband’s salary is shown to negatively affect the odds of divorce, and only the wife’s working hours and sector of employment are found to positively affect marriage instability. Moreover, couples in which the wife earns as much as or more than the husband are found to have the highest divorce risk. 
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-012-9256-3
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2011-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Israel, home economics
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andrew T. Fenelon
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Maternal age and offspring adult health: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study
Abstract: Advanced maternal age is associated with negative offspring health outcomes. The interpretation often relies on physiological processes related to aging, such as decreasing oocyte quality. We use a large population-based sample of American adults to analyze how selection and lifespan overlap between generations influence the maternal age-offspring adult health association. We find that offspring born to mothers below age 25 or above 35 have worse outcomes with respect to mortality, self-rated health, height, obesity and the number of diagnosed conditions than those born to mothers aged 25-34. Controls for maternal education and age at which the child lost the mother eliminate the effect for advanced maternal age up to age 45. The association between young maternal age and negative offspring outcomes is robust to these controls. Our findings suggest that the advanced maternal age-offspring adult health association reflects selection and factors related to lifespan overlap. These may include shared frailty or parental investment, but are not directly related to the physiological health of the mother during conception, fetal development, or birth. The results for young maternal age add to the evidence suggesting that children born to young mothers might be better off if the parents waited a few years.
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/maternal_age_and_offspring_adult_health_evidence_from_the_health_and_retirement_study_4247
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Valerie Martin
Title: Economic conditions of stepfamilies from a cross-national perspective
Abstract: This paper investigates the economic conditions of stepfamilies in Germany, the Russian Federation and France using data from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). The analysis shows that stepfamilies more often report economic hardship than nuclear families in France and western Germany. Socio-demographic differences between family types — particularly the fact that stepfamilies tend to be larger families — explain the differences in economic well-being between families in France. For western Germany, differences between nuclear and stepfamilies remain after controlling for socio-economic composition of different family types. For the Russian Federation and eastern Germany, we do not find any statistically significant differences in economic well-being between stepfamilies and nuclear families. The major dividing line for these regions runs between single parents and other types of families.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thuan Q. Thai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evangelos M. Falaris
Title: Child schooling, child health and rainfall shocks: evidence from rural Vietnam
Abstract: We study the effect of early life conditions, proxied by rainfall shocks, on schooling and height in rural Vietnam. Our measure of rainfall shock is defined as deviations from the long-run average. Many Vietnamese rural dwellers engage in rain-fed crop production, mostly irrigated paddy rice. Sufficient annual rainfall could play an important role in the harvest and thus, the household income. Nutritional deficiencies resulting from the household's income shocks may have negative consequences on health. We find that a negative rainfall shock during gestation delays school entry and slows progress through school. In addition, a negative rainfall shock in the third year of life affects adversely both schooling and height. The effects differ by region in ways that reflect differing constraints on families that are shaped by regional economic heterogeneity. We predict that policies that help rural families smooth income shocks will result in increases in human capital and in substantial cumulative returns in productivity over the life course.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Vietnam, child nutrition, early childhood, school enrollment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Wagner
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Vitality heterogeneity in the Strehler-Mildvan theory of mortality
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anja Vatterrott
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The fertility behaviour of East to West German migrants
Abstract: In the twenty years since the reunification of Germany, we have seen a convergence of total fertility rates in the eastern and western parts of the country, but differences remain in the timing, number and spacing of births. Our aim in this paper is to better understand the persistence of these differences by studying the fertility behaviour of migrants from the East to the West. Millions of people have followed this migration path in recent decades, mainly in response to the unfavourable economic conditions in the East. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel of the years 1990 to 2009. Using event history modelling, we analyse whether the first and second birth behaviours of female East-West German migrants resemble the patterns of one of the non-mobile populations in the eastern or western parts of the country. We find that migrants’ first and second birth risks lie in between those of non-mobile eastern and western Germans. Socio-economic characteristics, value orientations and partners’ characteristics are employed as explanatory variables, but do not fully account for the differences between the three groups. We investigate whether the special behavioural patterns of migrants can be explained by the fact that they are a selected group, but do not find support for this hypothesis.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility, internal migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The genealogy of Eastern European difference: an insider’s view
Abstract: The view of Eastern Europe as a locus of complex family organisation and familistic societal values has reached the status of general dogma in Western social sciences and demography. By offering an overview of almost entirely unknown scholarly achievements of Eastern Europeanists, this essay represents an attempt to persuade scholars to accept less stereotypical images of families from outside ‘Western Europe’. Well into the late 1990s, Eastern European literature on family forms remained screened off from the main current of European thought. Thus, not surprisingly, tracing the lineage of work from east of the ostensible Hajnal Line reveals the sharp differences between the findings of Eastern European researchers and the dominant assumptions of Western science. These marginalised discourses need to be integrated into mainstream research and discussion, so that scholars can better understand marriage, family, household and community patterns in Europe and elsewhere. The diversity of family forms and the rhythms of their development in historical Eastern Europe revealed in this literature also provide us with an excellent opportunity to free ourselves from a simplistic view of the continent’s familial history, and particularly from the one implied by the notion of a ‘dividing line’.
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: family forms, historical demography, household composition, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Miguel Sánchez Romero
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates
Abstract: Computable OLG growth models and "convergence models" differ in their assessment of the extent to which demography influences economic growth. In this paper, I show that computable OLG growth models produce results similar to those of convergence models when more detailed demographic information is used. To do so, I implement a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to explain Taiwan's economic miracle during the period 1965-2005. I find that Taiwan's demographic transition accounts for 22% of per capita output growth, 16.4% of the investment rate, and 18.5% of the savings rate for the period 1965-2005. Decomposing the demographic effect into its components, I find that fertility alone explains the impact of demographic changes in per capita output growth, while both fertility and mortality explain investment and saving rates. Assuming a small open economy, I find that investment rates increase with more rapid population growth, while saving rates follows the dependence hypothesis (Coale and Hoover, 1958). Under a closed-economy, the population growth rate has a negative influence on economic growth.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Taiwan, demography, economic growth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: W. Ward Kingkade
Title: Average age at death in infancy and infant mortality level: reconsidering the Coale-Demeny formulas at current levels of low mortality
Abstract: The longterm historical decline in infant mortality has been accompanied by increasing concentration of infant deaths at the earliest stages of infancy. The influence of prenatal and neonatal conditions has become increasingly dominant relative to postnatal conditions as external causes of death such as infectious disease have been diminished. In the mid-1960s Coale and Demeny developed formulas describing the dependency of the average age of death in infancy on the level of infant mortality. Almost at the same time as Coale and Demeny’s analysis, as shown in this paper, in the more developed countries a steady rise in average age of infant death began. This paper demonstrates this phenomenon with several different data sources, including the linked individual birth and infant death datasets available from the US National Center for Health Statistics and the Human Mortality Database. A possible explanation for the increase in average age of death in infancy is proposed, and modifications of the Coale-Demeny formulas for practical application to contemporary low levels of mortality are offered.
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: High development and fertility: fertility at older reproductive ages and gender equality explain the positive link
Abstract: A fundamental reversal of the traditional fertility-development relationship has occurred in highly developed countries so that further socioeconomic development is no longer associated with decreasing fertility, but with increasing fertility. In this paper, we seek to shed light on the mechanisms underlying this reversal by analyzing data from 1975 to 2008 for over 100 countries. We find that the reversal exists from both the period and the cohort perspectives, and is mainly driven by increasing fertility at older reproductive ages. Further, the reversal is only partially explained by changes in the timing of fertility. However, the positive impact of development on fertility is conditional on gender equality: countries that rank high in development as measured by health, income, and education, but low in gender equality, continue to experience declining fertility. This finding demonstrates the importance of work-family balance in shaping fertility at older reproductive ages.
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, developed areas, equal opportunity, fertility, gender, low fertility zones
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan F. Fox
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Urban fertility responses to local government programs: evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S.
Abstract: During the 1920s and early 1930s, fertility in American municipalities declined overall and with large variation between areas and across time. Using data for 1923-1932 on fertility and public spending for over 50 large cities, we show that the local government programs of health education and outdoor care of poor had the unintended effect of reducing fertility. Fixed effects regressions indicate a $4 increase in per capita public health education spending or a $37 increase in poor relief reduced the TFR by 0.1. This suggests that cities spending in the 75th percentile on health education experienced a 1.95% faster fertility decline than cities spending in the 25th percentile. For poor relief the difference was 1.45%. The mechanisms may be related to increased breastfeeding, social insurance incentives or the stressing of a two child home. The results help explain differing fertility trends, and highlight how policy may unintentionally reduce fertility.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, fertility, fertility decline, public health, social welfare
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julika Hillmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anne-Kristin Kuhnt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Der Kinderwunsch im Kontext von Partnerschaft und Partnerschaftsqualität: eine Analyse übereinstimmender Elternschaftsabsichten von Eltern und kinderlosen Paaren
Abstract: Untersuchungen zur Kinderwunschthematik stellen bisher Individualanalysen in den Mittelpunkt, dabei wird der Partnerschaftskontext, in dem Kinder(wünsche) entstehen, vernachlässigt. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht anhand der Befragung von 2.793 Paaren im Rahmen der „Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics“ (pairfam) die Übereinstimmung von Paaren hinsichtlich ihrer zeitnahen Elternschaftsabsichten unter Berücksichtigung der subjektiv wahrgenommenen Partnerschaftsqualität. Demnach hat eine hohe Partnerschaftsqualität einen positiven Einfluss auf den übereinstimmenden Kinderwunsch von Paaren. Betrachtet man Eltern und kinderlose Paare separat, wird deutlich, dass Elternschaftsabsichten von Paaren mit Kindern deutlich stärker von der Partnerschaftsqualität abhängen, als die von kinderlosen Paaren.    Although many studies consider fertility intentions, research almost neglects dyadic family desires. Prior micro level studies have basically ignored the dyadic nature of fertility intentions. This study uses survey data from 2.793 couples of the German „Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics“ (pairfam) to evaluate congruent fertility intentions of couples, and considers self-perceived relationship quality in particular. The results show that high relationship quality leads to a positive impact on congruent fertility intentions of couples. If parents and childless couples are considered separately, the results clarify that fertility intentions of parents depend more strongly on the relationship quality than those of childless couples.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, childless couples, family demography, family planning, parents
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Péter Őri
Author-Name: Levente Pakot
Title: Census and census-like material preserved in the archives of Hungary, Slovakia and Transylvania (Romania), 18-19th centuries
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Hungary, historical demography, historical sources
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Spatial construction of European family and household systems: a promising path or a blind alley? An Eastern European perspective
Abstract: This essay represents an attempt at a re-examination of the Western scientific evidence for the existence of the divergent “Eastern European family pattern.” This evidence is challenged by almost entirely unknown contributions of Eastern European scholars, revealing the stark incompatibility of the two discourses. This paper is informed to a large extent by R. Wall’s voluminous research on European household and family systems. Wall’s original observation of non-negligible spatial variation within the supposedly homogenous North-Western European marriage and family pattern is used here as a starting point to show the true diversity of familial organization in Eastern Europe, which had been placed at the other end of the spectrum of what was long believed to be a dichotomous division in European family systems. The diversity of family forms and the rhythms of their development in historical Eastern Europe presented in this literature should finally free us from a simplistic view of the continent’s familial history, and especially from the perspective implied by the notion of a “dividing line.”
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family forms
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maxim S. Finkelstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: On ordered subpopulations and population mortality at advanced ages
Abstract: We consider hazard (mortality) rates in populations consisting of ordered (in the defined stochastic sense) subpopulations. This setting can be interpreted via the fixed frailty models with one or more frailty parameters. The shape of the hazard rate is of the main interest in this paper. Specifically, the deceleration and leveling off in the hazard rates (mortality plateaus) are discussed and some examples of lifetime distributions that can result in asymptotically flat hazard rates are considered. These examples are based on vitality models when an organism’s initial vitality (resource) is ‘consumed’ in the course of life in accordance with a simple stochastic process (e.g., Wiener process with drift or the gamma process). 
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2011
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2011-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2011-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2011-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2011-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sonja Bastin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christine Schnor
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Diversität von Familienformen in Ost- und Westdeutschland
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family dynamics
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jörg  Baten
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The human capital of Central-Eastern and Eastern Europe in European perspective
Abstract: We trace the development of numeracy in Poland and Russia from the early 17th century onwards, and numeracy in Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania from the 18th century onwards. The fact that western Poland was doing relatively well during the 16th and early 17th centuries, but was not able to converge to Western European levels during the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries, and even fell back relative to Southern Europe during this period, might support the hypothesis that the second serfdom development was one of the core factors delaying Eastern European human capital accumulation. The major wars in the region also had a devastating effect on numeracy levels.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carl Schmertmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility
Abstract: There are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hal Caswell
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Perturbation analysis of indices of lifespan variability
Abstract: A number of indices have been used in recent years to calculate lifespan variation, each with different underlying properties. Although these indices are assumed to be interchangeable, little research has been conducted to show under which conditions this assumption is appropriate, or how to compare their responses to the underlying mortality schedule. We compare seven indices of lifespan variation: life disparity, the Gini coefficient, the standard deviation, the variance, Theil's index, the mean logarithmic deviation, and the inter-quartile range. We derive the sensitivity and elasticity of each index by applying Markov chain theory and matrix calculus. Using empirical French and Russian male data we compare the underlying sensitivities to mortality change under different mortality regimes in order to test under which conditions the indices might differ in their conclusions about the magnitude of lifespan variation. Finally we demonstrate how integrating these sensitivities can be used as a method of age decomposition. The result is an easily computable method for calculating the properties of this important class of longevity indices.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/perturbation_analysis_of_indices_of_lifespan_variability_4715
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: inequality, mathematical demography, mortality measurement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nora E. Sánchez Gassen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Spatial aspects of the rise of nonmarital fertility across Europe since 1960: the role of states and regions in shaping patterns of change
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of states and regions in shaping spatial patterns of non-marital fertility in Europe since 1960 using a dataset of 497 European subnational regions and smaller countries. Almost all regions registered substantial nonmarital fertility increases over the last 50 years. Prior research by Watkins (1991) has shown that in the first half of the 20th century states played a dominant role in drawing the demographic map of Europe. As a result, subnational regional variation decreased, while differences between countries increased. In this paper, we investigate whether states continue to play such a dominant role in delineating patterns of nonmarital fertility between 1960 and 2007. We find that variation in nonmarital fertility levels increased as a whole across Europe, and states continued to be important for determining these patterns. However, the role of states relative to regions declined in the latest period examined (1990 and 2007). Possible explanations for the changes include increased supranational integration, for example within the European Union, and decentralisation within states leading to increases in variation in subnational contextual conditions.
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/spatial_aspects_of_the_rise_of_nonmarital_fertility_across_europe_since_1960_the_role_of_states_and_4704
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, fertility, geography, nuptiality, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ariane Pailhé
Title: Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research)
Abstract: This special collection of Demographic Research is devoted to the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe. The collection is based on contributions to a workshop held in Berlin in July 2009, which in turn was stimulated by the onset of the economic recession in 2008. The collection comprises studies on how various dimensions of employment uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are related to the fertility and family formation of women and men in contexts across Europe. It covers studies on Germany, the U.K., France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The long-standing demographic East-West-divide in Germany
Abstract: Over the last decades numerous studies have dealt with demographic differences between the former communist eastern part of Germany and western Germany. Although the demography of these two regions has converged with respect to mortality and overall fertility levels, non-marital births are the norm in eastern Germany but the exception in western Germany. A number of explanations, stemming from the policy and socio-economic conditions of eastern and western Germany in recent decades, have been put forth. Here, we show that the divide in demographic behavior regarding fertility and marriage pre-dates the division of Germany into a communist east and (capitalist) west. Indeed, the areas in eastern Germany that formed the German Democratic Republic had in average roughly twice the level of non-marital fertility from at least since the middle of the 19th century. The persistence of the past suggests that explanations depending on current conditions are likely to be incomplete and that convergence, if it happens, will be a process lasting many decades or even centuries.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/a_long_standing_demographic_east_west_divide_in_germany_5288
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: German Empire, Germany, Germany/FRG, Germany/GDR, family formation, fertility, historical analysis, nuptiality, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Adam Lenart
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Gompertz distribution and maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters - a revision
Abstract: The Gompertz distribution is widely used to describe the distribution of adult deaths. Previous works concentrated on formulating approximate relationships to characterize it. However, using the generalized integro-exponential function Milgram (1985) exact formulas can be derived for its moment-generating function and central moments. Based on the exact central moments, higher accuracy approximations can be defined for them. In demographic or actuarial applications, maximum-likelihood estimation is often used to determine the parameters of the Gompertz distribution. By solving the maximum-likelihood estimates analytically, the dimension of the optimization problem can be reduced to one both in the case of discrete and continuous data.
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thuan Q. Thai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Rainfall shocks, parental behavior and breastfeeding: evidence from rural Vietnam
Abstract: In developing countries, rainfall shocks around the time of birth have been shown decrease later health. The mechanism is unknown, but could run through income shocks, disease exposure, or increasing opportunity cost of parental time which influences parenting behavior. We use the Vietnam Demographic Health Surveys to study how rainfall shocks around the birth year influence a key dimension of parental behavior, breastfeeding. Consistent with the opportunity cost of time theory, rainfall reduces breastfeeding: 25% excess rainfall in the birth year decreases the proportion that is breastfed more than a year by 11 percentage points. The effect is particularly strong among farming families, for whom rainfall increases the opportunity cost of time through labor demand. These results are the first to shed light on the mechanism linking rainfall shocks and child health. Policy aiming to improve child health through breastfeeding should focus on the impact of labor demand on breastfeeding.
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Vietnam, breast feeding, cost of children
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time?

Abstract: Adult lifespan variation in most western countries has stagnated since the 1960s, despite continued improvements in longevity. Cross-sectional analyses, however, find that in the 1990s higher socio-economic position was associated with lower lifespan variation. Trends in this association over time are unknown. We investigated trends in lifespan variation over four decades by occupational social class (manual, lower non-manual, upper non-manual) using Finnish register data (1971-2007). We performed age and cause-of-death decompositions of lifespan variation for each sex (a) by occupational class over time and (b) between occupational classes at a shared life expectancy. We found that although all occupational classes experienced increases in life expectancy, manual workers had stagnating lifespan variation over time while the higher occupational groups experienced mortality compression. These differences were caused by diverging trends in early adult mortality: all occupational classes experienced similar trends in lifespan variation at older ages, but variation in early adult mortality increased for all classes except the highest category. The high and stagnant lifespan variation of the manual class was mostly due to higher early adult mortality from external causes. These results suggest that mortality compression can be compatible with increases in life expectancy by tackling inequalities in early adult mortality.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/lifespan_variation_by_occupational_class_compression_or_stagnation_over_time_4806
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, adult mortality, age distribution, causes of death, mortality trends, socio-economic differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rachel Margolis
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family, money, and health: regional differences in the determinants of life cycle life satisfaction

Abstract: We examine how family, money, and health explain variation in life satisfaction (“happiness”) over the life cycle. Globally, these factors explain a substantial fraction of happiness, increasing from 12 percent in young adulthood to 15 percent in mature adulthood. Health is the most important factor, and its importance increases with age. Income is important only at ages below 50. Remarkably, the contribution of family is small across ages. Across regions health is most important in the wealthier, and income in the poorer regions of the world. Family explains a substantial fraction of happiness only in Western Europe and Anglophone countries.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, family, health, income, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rachel Margolis
Title: Happiness: before and after the kids
Abstract: Understanding how the process of childbearing influences parental well-being has great potential to explain variation in fertility. However, most research on fertility and happiness uses cross-sectional data, hindering causal conclusions. We study trajectories of parental happiness before and after the birth of a child using British and German panel data and methods which control for unobserved parental characteristics. We find that happiness increases prior to and in the year of having a child and decreases thereafter, but not below before-child levels. This general pattern is modified by sociodemographic characteristics. Those who become parents at young ages have a downward happiness trajectory, while those becoming parents at older ages have a higher happiness level after the birth. The first child tends to increase happiness a lot, the second much less, and the third may decrease happiness. Socioeconomic resources are important for men, as those with low education gain little in happiness from the birth of a child. Women experience stronger pre-birth highs and post-birth drops than men. These results, which are similar in Britain and Germany, suggest that childbearing increases parental happiness most among those who postpone and have more resources. This recipe for happiness is highly consistent with the fertility behavior that emerged during the second demographic transition and provides new insights into the causes behind low and late fertility.
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/happiness_before_and_after_the_kids_5155
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, United Kingdom, fertility, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: New cohort fertility forecasts for the developed world
Abstract: The 1970s worries of the "population bomb" were replaced in the 1990s with concerns of population aging driven by falling birth rates. Across the developed world, the nearly universally-used fertility indicator, the period total fertility rate, fell well below two children per woman. However, declines in period fertility have largely been an artifact of later – but not necessarily less – childbearing. We produce new estimates of the actual number of children women have over their lifetimes – cohort fertility – for 37 developed countries. Our results suggest that family size has remained high in many "low fertility" countries. For example, cohort fertility averages 1.8 for the 1975 birth cohort in the 37 countries for which average period total fertility rate was only 1.5 in 2000. Moreover, we find that the long-term decline in cohort fertility has flattened or reversed in all world regions previously characterized by low fertility. These results are robust to statistical forecast uncertainty and the impact of the late 2000s recession. An application of the new forecasts analyzing the determinants of cohort fertility finds that the key dimensions of development that have been hypothesized to be important for fertility – general socioeconomic development, per capita income, and gender equality – are all positively correlated with fertility for the 1970s cohorts. Gender equality, however, emerges as the strongest determinant: where the gap in economic, political, and educational achievement between women and men is small, cohort fertility is high, whereas where the gap is large, fertility is low. Our new cohort fertility forecasts that document the flattening and even reversal of cohort fertility have large implications for the future of population aging and growth, particularly over the long term.
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/new_cohort_fertility_forecasts_for_the_developed_world_rises_falls_and_reversals_4694
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2012-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, cohort fertility, developed areas, forecasts
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Concepció Patxot
Author-Name: Elisenda Renteria
Author-Name: Miguel Sánchez Romero
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Guadalupe Souto
Title: Measuring the balance of government intervention on forward and backward family transfers using NTA estimates: the modified Lee Arrows
Abstract: In this paper we propose a way to measure the degree of government intervention on forward –from parents to children– and backward –from adult children to elderly parents– intergenerational family transfers (IFT). We carry out a discussion about the possibility of using Generational Accounts (GA) and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodologies to generate indicators that could measure government intervention on both sides of IFT. As a result, we propose a modification of arrow diagrams used by Lee (1994b). An illustration of the results in the Spanish case indicates that the degree of government intervention on backward IFT is above that on forward IFT. This could be one of the main reasons to explain the Spanish low fertility rate.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, ageing, economic demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family systems and welfare provision in Poland-Lithuania: discrepancies and similarities
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Quantifying patriarchy: an explorative comparison of two joint family societies
Abstract: The notion of ‘patriarchy’ has pervaded the scholarly descriptions of peasant families in historical Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The term has often included many different elements, such as the dominance of patrilineal descent, patrilocal or patrivirilocal residence after marriage, power relations that favour the domination of men over women and of the older generation over the younger generation, customary laws that sanctioned these patterns, the absence of an interfering state that could mitigate their influence, and an inert traditional society that emanated from these conditions. Combinations of these elements have been used to explain the peculiarity of the residence patterns in the East and South-East of Europe relative to the West, but in a manner that generally does not allow researchers to measure comparatively the ‘intensity’ of patriarchy across time and space. In this paper, we propose a handy tool for comparative studies of joint families, and argue that ‘patriarchy’ can be meaningfully measured in quantitative terms. We also suggest approaches for measuring patriarchy, and provide a list of numerical variables easily derived from census microdata that can be used for measurement purposes. To illustrate how these comparative studies can be conducted, we use census and census-like materials for two historical joint family societies from the European East (Poland-Lithuania and Albania). For both datasets, we compute a list of well-specified variables and investigate how they correlate with each other. Finally, based on these variables, an index of patriarchy is proposed, allowing us to identify regions with different degrees of patriarchy within one country.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aleksandra Vuletic
Title: Censuses in 19th century Serbia: inventory of preserved microdata
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Yugoslavia, census data
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Virginia Zarulli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Mortality shocks and the human rate of aging
Abstract: Investigating the effect of mortality shocks on humans is difficult in the absence of laboratory experiments. However, some events in human history serve as natural experiments. Using data for Australian prisoners during WWII and for the Ukrainian Famine in 1933, I analyzed the effect of sudden changes in external conditions on the rate of aging. This may help to decide whether the rate of aging is sensitive to the environment or is stable. The mortality of the prisoners of war was higher during the imprisonment but the slope of the curve did not change. During the Ukrainian Famine, the curves in the years of crisis converged at old ages. By adopting a cohort perspective I found evidence of selection that could be the cause of the convergence. The analysis suggests that sudden and transitory exposure to severe conditions shifts the mortality curve upward proportionally at all ages, leaving the rate of aging unchanged.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Teibenbacher
Title: Fertility decline in the southeastern Austrian Crown lands. Was there a Hajnal line or a transitional zone?
Abstract: There is a substantial body of literature on the subject of fertility decline in Europe during the first demographic transition. Historical demographic research on this topic started in Western Europe, but, as a result of the discussion of the Hajnal line thesis, the decline in fertility has been more thoroughly explored for Eastern Europe (especially Poland and Hungary) than for areas in between, like Austria. This project and this working paper will seek to close this gap by addressing the question of whether the Austrian Crown lands in the southeast represented not just an administrative, but also a demographic border. Using aggregated data from the political districts, this paper will review the classic research about, as well as the methods and definitions of, fertility decline. Our results show that, even the Crown land level, which was used in the Princeton Fertility Project, is much too high for studying significant regional and systemic differences and patterns of fertility changes and decline. This process is interpreted as a result of economic and social modernization, which brought new challenges, as well as new options. Thus, fertility decline should not be seen as a linear and sequential process, but rather as a process driven by the sometimes paradoxical interdependencies of problems and opportunities faced by families and social groups. 
Length: 74 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Esther Geisler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: How policy matters: Germany’s parental leave benefit reform and fathers’ behavior 1999-2009

Abstract: In 2007, Germany enacted a radical new parental leave benefit scheme that grants parents 67 percent of their previous income, and includes two “daddy months.” In this paper, we use data from the German Microcensus for the period 1999 to 2009 to explore how this reform has changed fathers’ use of parental leave. We find strong overall increase in parental leave usage among men. Two groups of men in particular changed their behavior: highly educated men and fathers who are on fixed-term employment contracts.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carl Schmertmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Calibrated spline estimation of detailed fertility schedules from abridged data
Abstract: OBJECTIVE I develop and explain a new method for interpolating detailed fertility schedules from age-group data. The method allows estimation of fertility rates over a fine grid of ages, from either standard or non-standard age groups. Users can calculate detailed schedules directly from the input data, using only elementary arithmetic.   METHODS The new method, the calibrated spline (CS) estimator, expands an abridged fertility schedule by finding the smooth curve that minimizes a squared error penalty. The penalty is based both on fit to the available age-group data, and on similarity to patterns of 1fx schedules observed in the Human Fertility Database (HFD) and in the US Census International Database (IDB).   RESULTS I compare the CS estimator to two very good alternative methods that require more computation: Beers interpolation and the HFD's splitting protocol. CS replicates known 1fx schedules from 5fx data better than the other two methods, and its interpolated schedules are also smoother.   CONCLUSIONS The CS method is an easily computed, flexible, and accurate method for interpolating detailed fertility schedules from age-group data.   COMMENTS Data and R programs for replicating this paper’s results are available online at http://calibrated-spline.schmert.net
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel Grigoriev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: France Meslé
Author-Name: Jacques Vallin
Title: Reconstruction of continuous time series of mortality by cause of death in Belarus, 1965–2010
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-023.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belarus, causes of death, classification, mortality, mortality trends
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Liat Raz-Yurovich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Normative and allocation role strain: role incompatibility, outsourcing, and the transition to a second birth in Eastern and Western Germany
Abstract: The challenges women face in reconciling their work and family responsibilities are at the heart of current explanations concerning the low fertility levels in developed countries. This study examines the role of the outsourcing of household labor and of childcare responsibilities in reducing the incompatibility of women’s roles and in increasing fertility in the two different institutional and normative contexts of Eastern and Western Germany. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyzed whether Eastern and Western German women who outsourced childcare responsibilities to formal and informal care providers in the first and in the third years after the first birth were at higher risk of having a second child. Drawing on Goode’s role strain theory, we suggest that the incompatibility of women’s roles is affected not only by allocation role strain, but also by normative role strain. Our results indicate that the outsourcing of childcare to formal providers and to grandparents reduces, rather than increases, the propensity to have a second child among Western German women, due to normative role strain. We also find a significant positive effect of the outsourcing of housework on the transition to a second birth in Germany, due to the decline in allocation role strain.
Length: 60 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-024.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, child care, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Liat Raz-Yurovich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Application of the transaction cost approach to households – the demographics of households’ ‘make or buy’ decisions
Abstract: This study suggests that outsourcing to service providers is becoming the third edge in the economics of households in the 21st century. By referring to the household as an organizational unit, we use the transaction cost approach of the organizational economists to discuss and conceptualize the questions of what, why, and how 21st-century households decide to outsource. Our analysis demonstrates that the efficient boundaries of households are flexible, so that the core functions of households are being outsourced with different levels of intensity and scope. Moreover, we find that better cost control, access to technical expertise, and the potential for time savings might foster outsourcing by households; while normative and social beliefs, trust problems, power relations, and asymmetric information might inhibit outsourcing. With regard to the question of how, we find that households ‘make and buy’ rather than ‘make or buy’. Both the demand and the supply aspects of the outsourcing phenomenon are further discussed with regard to institutional mechanisms. Our analysis also offers theoretical contributions to the transaction cost approach, both by proposing the governance structure of ‘make and buy’, and by emphasizing the role of power in the organizational decision-making process regarding outsourcing.
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-025.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Miguel Sánchez Romero
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joze Sambt
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of recent pension reforms for the development of the social security system and economic growth in Austria. We use a computable general equilibrium model that is built up of overlapping generations that differ by their household structure, longevity, educational attainment, and capital accumulation. Each household optimally decides over its consumption paths, work effort, and retirement age according to the life-cycle theory of labor, while they face survival risk. We find that the pension reforms implemented from 2000 to 2004, although in the correct direction, are not sufficient to solve the labor market distortion caused by the Austrian PAYG pension system. Using alternative policy options, our simulations indicate that a change to a notional defined contribution system and an increase in the educational distribution of the work force would increase the incentive for later retirement ages and thereby increase labor supply and economic growth.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-026.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Austria, ageing, retirement, social security
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sergei Zakharov
Title: Comprehensive analyses of fertility trends in the Russian Federation during the past half century
Abstract: The transformation of traditional childbearing patterns of early family formation to later family formation characterized recent fertility trends in Russia. These were intrinsically interwoven with fundamental changes in all aspects of life of young people in the 1990s and the 2000s. The past quarter century was also marked by concern with low fertility and attempts to increase fertility in the early 1980s and the late 2000s. The family policies of the 1980s failed to raise fertility. Preliminary analyses indicate that the fate of the 2007 policies could be similar. In both cases the main emphasis was on material birth and child benefits, parental leaves and child care. Presumably insufficient attention was devoted to improving living conditions of young people and promoting gender equality. Will government efforts to raise fertility during the 2010s be sufficiently effective to offset economic and social forces challenging childbearing? As of 2012 the outlook for a future fertility increase does not appear hopeful.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-027.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regional hot spots of exceptional longevity in Germany
Abstract: In their contributions to the debate on exceptional longevity, several scholars have noted the existence of spatial hot spots, or areas with a high concentration of individuals who have survived to very high ages (e.g. Sardinia in Italy or Okinawa in Japan). However, most of these studies were based on a small number of cases. This study investigates the spatial pattern of exceptional longevity in Germany by place of birth and place of death. We used a large dataset of exceptional longevity that covered all recorded individuals who reached the age of 105 in Germany in the period 1991 to 2002 (N: 1,339). Our research results show that, even in Germany, with its troubled 20th-century past, most of the semi-supercentenarians reached the age of exceptional longevity in the same region in which they were born. The discovery of this highly localised pattern supports the view that an investigation of regional variation in exceptional longevity can produce meaningful results. In our analysis of spatial variation, we were able to detect hot spots of exceptional longevity in Berlin and in north-western Germany. These findings are remarkable, as life expectancy in Germany is currently characterised by a south-north gradient, with the areas of highest life expectancy at birth being located in the south. The observed pattern of exceptional longevity instead reflects the life expectancy at birth pattern in Germany in the early 20th century and to some degree also the current life expectancy at age 80 pattern. Our findings might be interpreted as support to the argument that early and late life conditions might play an important role in explaining spatial variation of exceptional longevity in Germany.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2012
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/regional_hot_spots_of_exceptional_longevity_in_germany_5151
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-028.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2012-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, longevity, spatial analysis, spatial distance
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Arianna Caporali
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gerda R. Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sandra Krapf
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Olga Grigorieva
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Providing easy access to cross-country comparative contextual data for demographic research: concept and recent advances of the Generations & Gender Programme Contextual Database
Abstract: Demographic behaviour is shaped not only by characteristics at the individual level, but also by the context in which individuals are embedded. The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) supports research on these micro-macro links by providing cross-country comparative contextual data on demographic, socio-economic, and policy developments covering up to 60 countries in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. This paper presents conceptual considerations and recent advances in the implementation of this database. Although conceptually linked to the Generations and Gender Survey, the GGP Contextual Database can also be used for the analysis of data from other surveys or to study macro-developments. With its unique combination of features, this database could serve as a model for the development of contextual databases linked to other surveys. These features include the provision of harmonised national and sub-national regional time series of indicators in a dynamic web environment with innovative functionalities, such as metadata documentation by single data entry and automatic geocoding.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, data banks, fertility, gender, generations
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Saskia C. Hin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Interdisciplinary research collaboration as the future of ancient history? Insights from spying on demographers
Abstract: This papers investigates patterns of research collaboration in the fields of ancient history and demography and explores studies on the benefits of interdisciplinary collaboration in academia
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: research policy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karel Neels
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Social norms, family policies, and fertility trends: insights from a comparative study on the German-speaking region in Belgium
Abstract: Several countries in Northern and Western Europe report cohort fertility rates of close to two children per woman, including Belgium, France, and Denmark. By contrast, most Central and Southern European countries have cohort fertility levels of only around 1.5-1.6 children. Germany is part of this second group. In order to explain these country differences in fertility levels, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to differences in social fertility norms. However, due to the interdependence of these two factors, it is cumbersome to isolate their impact on fertility trends. In our study we attempt to disentangle these influences by drawing on a quasi-natural experiment. In the aftermath of World War I, Germany was forced to cede the territory of Eupen-Malmedy to Belgium. The population in this area retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies since the early 1920s. Our main research question is whether the fertility trends in this German-speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern more closely. To answer this question, we use (micro)-census data to compare the fertility behavior in the German-speaking region in Belgium with data for western Germany and the Belgian Flemish- and French-speaking regions, controlling for individual-level characteristics. Our findings indicate that the overall fertility outcomes of the German-speaking region in Belgium resemble the Belgian pattern more than the German one. This provides support for the view that institutional factors play an important role for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/family_policies_and_the_western_european_fertility_divide_insights_from_a_natural_experiment_in_belgium_4853
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belgium, Europe, Germany (Alte Bundesländer), family policies, fertility trends, social norms
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Akihiko Kato
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Japanese family system: change, continuity, and regionality over the twentieth century
Abstract: In Japan, many scholars and policymakers as well as ordinary people, have accepted the family nuclearization theory—that is, that the Japanese family system has changed from a traditional stem family into the modern nuclear or conjugal family in the latter half of the twentieth century. Although the number of nuclear family households doubled during the period of high economic growth (1955-1974), this can be brought about under the stem family principle by a marriage boom among non-heir sons and daughters born in the 1930s and the 1940s, who have many siblings due to the demographic transition. This paper examines continuity, change, and regionality in the Japanese family over the twentieth century, using retrospective longitudinal data from nationally representative survey implemented in 2002. The proportion of couples co-residing with the husband’s parent(s) or with the wife’s parent(s) at the time of marriage decreased from about 35% for those born in the 1930s to 20% for those born in the 1960s. However, the latter cohort started living with their parent(s) soon after marriage, and then over 30% of them co-reside 10–15 years after marriage, showing a delayed co-residence tendency. The results from a discrete-time logistic regression analysis reveal that the spread of conjugal family ideology, industrialization, and urbanization are the primary causes of the decrease in intergenerational co-residence at marriage. However, these effects start to weaken immediately after marriage and then fade out sooner or later, inconsistent with the nuclearization theory. By contrast, the intergenerational transfer of family property, especially house and/or land, and intergenerational reciprocity have powerful impacts from the time of marriage onward, never weakening with the passing of time. These features are clearer among younger cohorts than among their parental cohorts, suggesting intrinsic forces that form stem families continue to work in depth. Moreover, there is the persistence of the stem family in terms of regionality over the twentieth century, concluding that the Japanese family is still based on the stem family system. The evidence presented in this paper could provide several insights into the family systems of other strong family countries.
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Japan
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Schnettler
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic stress or random variation? Revisiting german reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth
Abstract: The economic stress hypothesis (ESH) suggests that economic decline leads to a decrease in the proportion of males born in a population. A multitude of additional influences on sex ratios that often cannot be accounted for empirically make assessing the validity of the ESH difficult. Thus, as a historical quasi-experiment, German reunification constitutes an interesting test case. The economy in East Germany, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. In the same year, the sex ratio decreased in East Germany, but not in West Germany. Catalano (2003) interpreted these developments as evidence in support of the ESH. Using more recent and detailed data, we re-examine this case to test an alternative explanation, the random variation hypothesis (RVH). Using aggregate data on sex ratios between 1946-2010 and individual-level data on over 13 million births from the German Birth Registry between 1991-2009, we find evidence supporting the RVH but not the ESH. First, the sex ratio in East Germany shows stronger deviations from the time trend in several years, and is seemingly unrelated to economic developments. The degree of variation is associated with the smaller and decreasing number of births in East Germany during the fertility decline following reunification. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991 decrease in the East German sex ratio could also be the result of random variation. A specificity of the East German transformation is the buffering of the consequences of economic decline through integration into the West German welfare state. Therefore, the ESH may be applicable in other transformation cases.
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, Germany (Alte Bundesländer), Germany (Neue Bundesländer), economic recession, sex ratio
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another
Abstract: Demographers and others often study the interaction between two types of individual-level behaviour, such as migration and childbearing. Unfortunately, one can get estimation bias if one compares childbearing before and after migration from data confined to migrants, say, as is sometimes done to see whether international migration disrupts fertility. Similar issues can arise in comparisons of union formation before and after first birth, marriage formation before and after home purchase, as well as in other comparisons of behaviour before and after an index event if one confines the study only to those who have experienced the index event. We point out that if one does this, then the study of behaviour before the index event actually conditions on the later arrival of the index event. This amounts to anticipatory analysis, which normally produces an estimation bias. In this paper we discuss this issue, provide a mathematical and graphical representation of it, and show how one can avoid estimation bias and get a meaningful (unconditional) comparison of behaviour before and after the index event provided the data contain enough information for both sub-periods.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: childbearing, event history analysis, marriage, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cornelia Mureşan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mihaela Hărăguş
Title: Recent features of cohabitational and marital fertility in Romania
Abstract: Until the late 1980s there was little non-marital cohabitation in Romania; time in consensual unions constituted only a few per cent of the total time spent in unions every year. After the fall of state socialism, the overall fraction in consensual unions grew steadily, and by 2005 it had reached some ten per cent. This development had consequences for the patterns of childbearing. The purpose of the present paper is to display selected features of fertility in consensual and marital unions in Romania over the period 1985-2005 based on the data from the national Generations and Gender Survey of 2005. To this end we use underlying fertility rates specified by union duration and utilize a metric based on an aggregation of such rates over all durations, irrespective of parity. We also highlight groups of women who have been particularly prone to have children outside marriage. This turns out to be women with a low educational attainment and women of a rural origin. Women in consensual unions in these two groups were especially strongly affected by the dramatic changes in family policies around 1990, and their aggregate fertility in cohabitational unions in subsequent years is largely of the same size order as in marital unions. For the fertility of partnered women in the two groups it does not seem to matter much whether they are married.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Romania, event history analysis, fertility, fertility rate, premarital cohabitation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: a comparison of Denmark and Germany
Abstract: Studies that have investigated the role of unemployment in childbearing decisions have often provided conflicting results. We argue that many of the inconsistencies of prior research may be attributed to a neglect of group-specific differences in behavior. In this study, we examine how the effects of unemployment on fertility vary by socio-demographic subgroups using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and from Danish population registers. We find that male unemployment leads to a postponement of first and second childbearing in both countries. The role of female unemployment is less clear at these parities. Both male and female unemployment is positively correlated with third birth risks. More importantly, our results show that there are strong educational gradients in the unemployment and fertility nexus, and that the relationship between unemployment and fertility varies by socioeconomic group. Fertility tends to be lower during periods of unemployment among highly educated women and men, but not among their less educated counterparts.
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anja Vatterrott
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Geschlechtsspezifische Arbeitsmarktsegregation und Geburtenverhalten: neue Befunde auf Basis der „Biografiedaten ausgewählter Sozialversicherungsträger in Deutschland“ (BASiD)
Abstract: This paper uses recently available data from linked pension and employment registers for Germany, which contain complete fertility histories of women as well as longitudinal information of firm-specific characteristics where these women have been employed. It is examined how occupational sex segregation of the labor market (measured by the share of female employees in a firm) is related to first, second and third birth risks. In line with previous research, we find a strong sex segregation of the German labor market. We also find strong support for a close relationship of occupational sex segregation and fertility behavior. Women who are employed in female-dominated firms have substantially higher first, second and third birth risks than other women.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rachel Margolis
Title: Parental benefits improve parental well-being: evidence from a 2007 policy change in Germany
Abstract: Family policies aim to influence fertility and labor force participation, and support families. However, often only fertility and labor supply are considered in policy evaluations. For example, the 2007 extension of parental leave benefits in Germany is generally considered unsuccessful because changes in fertility and labor force participation were modest. However, parental wellbeing is also important, in itself and as a determinant of child well-being. This paper is the first to consider the effect of parental leave policies on parental well-being. We analyze the German 2007 parental benefits reform and find that the extension of benefits strongly increased parental well-being around the birth of a child. The effect is observed for first and second births and for various sub-populations. A placebo test using data from Britain where there was no policy change supports the causal interpretation. Our results cast the success of the German 2007 policy change in new light. Parental leave benefits have an important direct impact on parental wellbeing.
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, parenthood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kai P. Willführ
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Charlotte Störmer
Title: Reproductive behavior of landless agricultural workers, small farmers, and the economic elite in the historical Krummhörn region [East Frisia, Germany, 1720-1870]
Abstract: The historical population of the Krummhörn region [1720-1850] in the northwest of Germany can be characterized as a non-industrialized, pre-capitalist agricultural society. Around 70 percent of the families had either no land or owned farms too small to ensure subsistence, and therefore worked on the big farms owned by the families of the economic upper class. The economic elite made up around 15 percent of the population, but they owned 80 percent of the farm land. The remaining 15 percent of the population did not belong to the elite, but owned estates that were big enough to support their families, and were therefore economically independent. During the study period there were no famines or wars, and mortality, especially of infants, was very low compared to mortality in other German regions. Furthermore, the population was not naturally fertile. As there were on average only four to five births in complete families, the population was barely growing. In this paper, we investigate how the reproductive behavior of these families was affected by their social status and by short-term fluctuations in their socioeconomic conditions. Poisson and Cox regression models are used to analyze the age at first reproduction, fertility, the sex ratio of the offspring, sex-specific infant survival rates, and the number of children. In addition, we investigate how fluctuations in crop prices affected seasonal-specific infant mortality and fertility. We also include information about the seasonal climate that may had an effect on crop prices as well as on infant mortality via other pathways. In sum, we find that reproductive success (the number of children born and the number of children surviving to adulthood) was correlated with social rank. Individuals from high-ranking families had more births and a higher number of surviving children. We also find that social strata-specific constraints were important factors: birth rank and sex-specific reproductive values affected both infant mortality and the female age at first marriage differently in the different social strata. High crop prices were associated with a rise in infant mortality in the autumn and the winter, which may have been a reflection of a tense situation among the landless. Meanwhile, warm or hot weather was associated with an increase in child mortality in the summer, possibly because of the increased risk of infection with malaria, a common disease in the Krummhörn region at that time.
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
Number: WP-2013-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family reconstitution, historical sources, reproductive behavior, social stratification
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Miguel Sánchez Romero
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Naohiro Ogawa
Author-Name: Rikiya Matsukura
Title: To give or not to give: bequest estimate and wealth impact based on a CGE model with realistic demography in Japan
Abstract: In Japan due to the rapid population aging and its large financial pressure on pay-as-you-go retirement systems, the economic impact of bequest wealth has been drawing a tremendous amount of attention. Despite that, there are neither official statistics on bequest for the whole population, nor analyses of the historical evolution of bequest. Our study fills this gap by offering an estimate of bequest in Japan from 1850 to 2100, based on a computable general equilibrium model with realistic demography. Our model shows that the historical evolution of the bequest-to-output ratio in Japan follows the same U-shaped pattern described by Piketty (2011) for France. Moreover, we estimate that the annual flow of bequest represented between 4% and 6% of the output in the year 2000 and that it will reach between 7% and 13% of the output by year 2100.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Japan, economic demography, inheritance, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The East-West gradient in spatial population development within Germany: temporary GDR legacy vs. longstanding spatial disparities
Abstract: Since the unification of Germany in 1990, the former communist eastern part of the country has experienced substantial levels of population decline and outmigration. These trends are largely attributable to East-West differences in economic development (May 2007). In this article, we explore the question of whether the recent decline in population is a temporary phenomenon related to the period of transition, or whether long-term geographical factors also affect spatial population trends in Germany. In particular, we investigate to what extent East-West differences are related to the fact that parts of western Germany belong to the European dorsal (or Blue Banana arc), which has long been the most important area of economic activity in Europe (Brunet 1989). Our findings show that an East-West gradient in spatial population trends has existed since the late 19th century. This suggests that long-term geographical factors are relevant for understanding trends in Germany’s spatial population development.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/the_east_west_gradient_in_spatial_population_development_within_germany_temporary_gdr_legacy_vs_longstanding_5328
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, population change, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tobias C. Vogt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Fanny A. Kluge
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Care for money? Mortality improvements, increasing intergenerational transfers, and time devoted to the elderly
Abstract: Background: After the reunification of Germany, mortality among older eastern Germans converged quickly with western German levels. Simultaneously, the pension benefits of eastern Germans rose tenfold.   Objective: We make use of German reunification as a natural experiment to show that, first, increasing financial transfers from the elderly to their children led to increasing reverse transfers in the form of care; and, second, this rise in the number of hours spent on care led to a reduction in old-age mortality.   Method: As a first step, we calculated intergenerational transfer profiles by age for eastern and western Germany to determine whether any changes in downward and in upward transfers in the form of time and money occurred since reunification. We use generalized linear regression to test whether rising pensions led to an increase in the number of hours spent on care, and whether this increase led to a reduction in old-age mortality. We use different macro level data sources to test our hypothesis, including mortality rates and time use surveys for East and West Germany and information on private intergenerational transfers from the National Transfer Accounts project for Germany.   Results: We show that since German reunification, intergenerational downward transfers more than doubled in percentage terms in the east. This was predominantly caused by the sharp increase in pension benefits since the fall of the Berlin Wall. At the same time, mortality among pensioners dropped markedly, and converged to western German levels. We further show that the rise in pension income was strongly correlated with the increase in social support and the decline in mortality among older eastern Germans.   Discussion: Our result suggest that there was an interfamilial monetary transfer from the elderly to the young in exchange for social support. This mutual beneficial exchange may have helped to improve the survival of older East Germans after the reunification.  
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, mortality determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kai P. Willführ
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Disease load at conception predicts survival in later epidemics in a historical French-Canadian cohort, suggesting functional epigenetic imprinting
Abstract: Background: Epigenetic inheritance is a potentially important determinant of health in several mammals. For humans, the existing evidence is weak. We investigate whether disease exposure triggers functional epigenetic inheritance among humans by analyzing siblings who were conceived under different disease loads, and comparing their mortality in later epidemics. Under functional epigenetic inheritance, we expect that those who were conceived under high pathogenic stress load will have relatively low mortality during a later epidemic. Methods: We use data from the Registre de la Population du Québec Ancien, which covers the historical population living in St. Lawrence Valley, Québec, Canada. Children born in 1705-1724 were grouped according to their exposure during conception to the measles 1714-15 epidemic. The 1714-15 epidemic was followed by two mortality crises in 1729-1734 which were caused by measles and smallpox. Using proportional hazard Cox regression models with multivariate adjustment and with fixed-effects approach that compare siblings, we analyze whether mortality in 1729-1734 is affected by exposure to the 1714-15 epidemic. Results: hildren who were conceived during the peak of the measles epidemic of 1714-15 exhibited significantly lower mortality during the 1729-1734 crisis than those who were born before the 1714-15 epidemic (mortality hazard ratio 0.106, p<.05 in multivariate adjusted models; 0.142 p<.1 in sibling comparison models). Conclusion: The results are consistent with the functional epigenetic inheritance mechanism that responds to pathogen stress and suggest that early disease exposure may be protective later in life. Alternative explanations for the mortality patterns are discussed and shown to be problematic.  
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
Number: WP-2013-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christine Schnor
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does waiting pay off? The effect of partnership duration prior to household formation on union stability
Abstract: This article investigates how the length of the non-residential partnership phase, which is known as LAT (living apart together), relates to separation behavior. There is a large body of literature on the effects of cohabiting prior to marriage on union stability. However, relatively few studies have examined how the LAT period before moving in together influences separation risks. This is surprising, as this study has found that 90 percent of the unions were preceded by an LAT period. On the one hand, we might expect to find that a short LAT period has a negative influence on union stability, because the partners have relatively little information about each other, and mismatches are therefore possible. It is, however, also conceivable that a short LAT period prior to moving in together is indicative of the couple’s commitment to the union. Data for the empirical analyses came from the German Family Panel. The dataset includes 8,230 residential non-marital and marital unions of 2,899 men and 3,866 women born in 1971-1973 and in 1981-1983. Multilevel piecewise constant survival models were estimated to assess the influence of the length of the LAT (living apart together) period on stability. The results reveal that union stability is positively related to the length of the LAT phase. However, the separation rates of unions without a prior LAT period are also low. The LAT stage has a similar impact on cohabitations and on marriages. The findings suggest that the LAT period is a significant phase in the partnership which enables couples to acquire information about the quality of the partnership.
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family stability
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela R. Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sonja Bastin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Blurred memory, deliberate misreporting, or “true tales”? How different survey methods affect respondents’ reports of partnership status at first birth
Abstract: This paper examines the reliability of biographical information gathered retrospectively. It draws on data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), which collected information on the partnership status at first birth using two different methods. The first method is based on data on partnership and fertility histories collected retrospectively. The second method uses data gathered through the use of a “landmark question” on the respondents’ partnership status when their first children were born. We find that in almost 20 percent of the cases, the information collected using the first method did not correspond with the information collected using the second method. Partnership dissolution and “turbulence” in the partnership biography are strong predictors for discrepancies in the information gathered through the two different survey methods. We conclude by drawing attention to the limitations of the retrospective collection of partnership histories at a time when divorce and separation rates are increasing.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anne-Kristin Kuhnt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heike Trappe
Title: Easier said than done: childbearing intentions and their realization in a short term perspective
Abstract: This paper studies the short-term fertility intentions of women and men and their subsequent behavior. On the one hand, the predictive strength of fertility intentions is of interest. On the other hand, the most important determinants that inhibit or enable the realization of fertility intentions are analyzed. Data from the first three waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam) are used in the analysis. The theoretical model is derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior. Its validity for the realization of short-term childbearing intentions is tested in the low-fertility context of Germany. Our descriptive findings indicate that fertility intentions have a certain predictive strength. Individuals who reported a strong desire to have a child within the next two years were the most likely to have had a child. However, negative intentions were even more predictive of subsequent behavior. For the women and men with positive fertility intentions, the chances of failure were relatively high. The multivariate results suggest that being in a stable relationship was by far the most important determinant of whether individuals had and realized positive fertility intentions. In addition, financial security and parenthood status were strong determinants. Social pressure exerted by the parents was also a factor, as subjective norms appear to have affected the realization of positive intentions. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2013
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2013-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2013-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family demography, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2013-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katharina Wolf
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility of Turkish migrants in Germany: duration of stay matters
Abstract: This study examines the fertility behavior of male and female Turkish migrants in Germany. Our main objective in this paper is to investigate the role of duration since migration in first and higher order birth risks. We use data from the 2nd wave of the German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) that was conducted in 2005/06. In a first step, the age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rates are estimated and compared for the German and the Turkish respondents following a method suggested by Toulemon (2004). Second, discrete-time hazard rate models are calculated. We find strongly elevated birth risks among the Turkish respondents in the years immediately following migration. This effect is found to be stronger for the females than for the males. The role of age at migration is also investigated. We find here that migrants who were older than age 30 at migration had significantly lower birth rates than other migrants, particularly those who migrated in young adulthood. We conclude that the fertility of Turkish migrants in Germany is strongly associated with their migration history. It is therefore important to take into account both the age at migration and the duration of stay when studying migrant fertility.
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: migrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Trude Lappegård
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Social norms, economic conditions and spatial variation of childbearing within cohabitation across Europe
Abstract: Childbearing within cohabitation has gained considerable ground in recent decades, but existing explanations for this development are not coherent. Proponents of the Second Demographic Transition framework interpret it rather as a pattern of progress driven by processes such as emancipation from traditional social norms. Others see rises in childbearing in cohabitation being related to a “pattern of disadvantage” as they are often concentrated among individuals faced with blocked opportunities. In this paper we argue that these inconsistencies might stem from a gap in knowledge how the relevance of existing theories varies dependent on whether we look at variation in family formation behavior across individuals, subnational regions or countries. To test this hypothesis we revisit the existing theories by analyzing harmonized survey data from 16 European countries using a three-level hierarchical model. Our results suggest that the Second Demographic Transition framework is particularly important to understanding variation between countries, while pattern of disadvantage hypotheses seem more relevant to understanding variation between individuals and subnational regions.
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, cohabitation, economic conditions, family formation, fertility, social norms
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny A. Kluge
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elke Loichinger
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tobias C. Vogt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?
Abstract: Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
Number: WP-2014-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, ageing
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Frans J. Willekens
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Demographic transitions in Europe and the world
Abstract: The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions that trigger the transition. As a consequence, we observe diverging trends in population growth and ageing around the world. The paper shows that transitions in mortality, fertility and migration have several features in common. Demographic transitions are intertwined with science and technology, the economy, cultural change and social and political processes. The interaction between these processes take place at the level of the individual, not at the population level. The human desire for a long and fulfilling life is the main driver of demographic change. Science and technology provide instruments to control demographic processes but the use of these instruments is conditioned by economic and cultural change. Individuals are more likely to act if they are aware that they can influence the outcome of their action, the outcome is beneficial and they have the instruments to exercise control. The pace of a transition depends on (a) diffusion processes that govern the transmission of values, preferences, norms and practices and (b) inertia in a population due to its composition.   Keywords: Demographic transition, path dependence, diffusion, agency, demographic dividends
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: demographic transition
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Oliver Wisser
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The sex differential in mortality: a historical comparison of the adult-age pattern of the ratio and the difference
Abstract: The ratio (RMR) is the standard measure of sex differentials in mortality. It is commonly known that the RMR was historically small and increased throughout the 20th century. However, numerical properties might account for the trend in the RMR rather than sex differences in risk factors. In this study we examine the age pattern of the absolute difference in male to female mortality rates (DMR) as an alternative measure in a historical context and compare it to the RMR pattern. Whereas the RMR is close to one at every age in the 19th and early 20th century and increases until the present day, the adult age pattern of the DMR is relatively stable throughout the last 150 years. We also found that the DMR is approximately exponentially increasing from age 40 to 90, implying a universal biological force behind sex differentials in mortality. However, interactions between biology, behavior and environment are complicated and have to be considered when interpreting these findings. Moreover, between ages 15 and 40 the DMR declined in the second half of the 20th century, whereas the RMR increased. Hence, the trend in the latter measure is likely to be an artifact of very different mortality regimes between populations. Therefore, we argue that it is necessary to consider both measures when conducting comparative analyses and to be careful in interpreting their time, cross-cultural and age trends, since they can lead to different conclusion about sex specific underlying risk factors.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: England, Europe, France, Sweden, adult mortality, historical analysis, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Patriarchy Index: a comparative study of power relations across historic Europe
Abstract: This paper stands at the confluence of three streams of historical social science analysis: the sociological study of power relations within the family, the regional demography of historical Europe, and the study of spatial patterning of historical family forms in Europe. It is a preliminary exercise in the design and application of the new “master variable” for cross-cultural studies of family organization and relations. This indexed composite measure, which we call the Index of Patriarchy, incorporates a range of variables related to familial behavior, including nuptiality and age at marriage, living arrangements, postmarital residence, power relations within domestic groups, the position of the aged, and the sex of the offspring. The index combines all these items, with each being given equal weight in the calculation of the final score, which represents the varying degrees of sex- and age-related social inequality (“patriarchal bias”) in different societal and familial settings. To explore the comparative advantages of the Index, we use information from census and census-like microdata for 91 regions of historic Europe covering more than 700,000 individuals living in 143,000 domestic groups from the Atlantic to the Urals. The index allows us to identify regions with different degrees of patriarchy within a single country, across the regions of a single country, or across and within many broader zones of historic Europe. The unprecedented patterning of the many elements of power relations and agency contained in the index generates new ways of accounting for both the geographies and the histories of family organization across the European landmass.
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, patriarchy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jörg  Baten
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A golden age before serfdom? The human capital of Central-Eastern and Eastern Europe in the 17th-19th centuries
Abstract: Can the 16th and early 17th centuries in Poland‐Lithuania and some other east‐central European countries be characterized as a “Golden Age” in human capital? We trace the development of a specific human capital indicator during this period: numeracy. We draw upon new evidence for Poland and Russia from the early 17th century onwards; and for Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania from the 18th century onwards; controlling for potential selectivity issues. Poland had quite high levels of numeracy during the early 17th century, but these levels subsequently fell below those of even southern Europe. As in other countries in the area, numeracy levels in Poland were lower than those of western Europe during the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries. This finding might support the hypothesis that the second serfdom process, which gained momentum during the 17th century, was one of the core reasons why human capital accumulation was delayed in eastern Europe. The major wars in the region also had devastating effects on numeracy levels. (KEYWORDS: Central‐Eastern Europe; historical Demography; Eastern Europe; Human Capital; Numeracy; Age‐Heaping; census microdata)
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eva U. B. Kibele
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regional mortality disparities in Germany: long-term dynamics and possible determinants
Abstract: While regional mortality inequalities in Germany tend to be relatively stable in the short run, over the course of the past century marked changes have occurred in the country’s regional mortality patterns. These changes include not only the re-emergence of stark differences between eastern and western Germany after 1970, which have almost disappeared again in the decades after Germany’s unification in 1990; but also substantial changes in the patterns in northern and southern Germany. By the end of the 19th century, the northern regions in Germany had the highest life expectancy levels, while the southern regions had the lowest. Today, this mortality pattern is reversed. In this paper, we study these long-term trends in spatial mortality disparities in Germany since 1900, and link them with theoretical considerations and existing research on the possible determinants of these pattern. Our findings support the view that the factors which contributed to shape spatial mortality variation have changed substantially over time, and suggest that the link between regional socioeconomic conditions and mortality outcomes strengthened over the last 100 years.
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/journal_articles/regional_mortality_disparities_in_germany_long_term_dynamics_and_possible_determinants_5465
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, mortality, socio-economic conditions, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Assessment of cross-sectional and longitudinal components of a difference with an algorithm of contour replacement
Abstract: This study proposes a new decomposition method which permits a difference in an aggregate measure at a final time point to be split into additive components corresponding to the initial differences in the event-rates of the measure and differences in trends in these underlying event-rates. The method is an extension of the existing algorithm of stepwise replacement. We provide a full description of the method and two examples of its application with mortality and fertility data. The outcome of these two decompositions are: 1) age-specific contributions of initial conditions and trends to the Japan-USA life expectancy gap in 2009 with a reference time point at 1970; and 2) age-specific contributions of initial conditions and trends to the difference in Czech-Russian age variations in fertility for the 1970 female birth cohorts with reference to the 1955 cohorts.
Length: 11 pages
Creation-Date: 2014
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2014-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2014-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2014-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2014-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Spatial variation in non-marital fertility across Europe: recent trends, past path dependencies, and potential future pathways
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, family formation, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Klabunde
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frans J. Willekens
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sabine Zinn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Matthias Leuchter
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: An agent-based decision model of migration, embedded in the life course - Model description in ODD+D format
Abstract: This report contains the model description for a prototype model of migration decision making which is based on the theory of planned behavior. It makes use of empirically estimated demographic transition rates and is thus, to our knowledge, the first decision model of migration which is embedded in the life course. Moreover, it is, other than most agent-based models, a continous time model which makes heavy use of survival theory and competing risks.  The model description follows the ODD+D (``Overview, Design Concepts, Details + Decisions'') protocol as suggested in Müller et al. (2013).
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Senegal, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pil H. Chung
Author-Name: Jeroen J. A. Spijker
Author-Name: John MacInnes
Title: Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency
Abstract: We aim to determine the extent to which variables commonly used to describe health, wellbeing, and disability in old-age vary primarily as a function of years lived (chronological age), years left (thanatological age), or as a function of both. We analyze data from the US Health and Retirement Study to estimate chronological age and time-to-death patterns in 78 such variables. We describe results from the birth cohort born 1915-1919 in the final 12 years of life. Our results show that most markers used to study well-being in old-age vary along both the age and time-to-death dimensions, but some markers are exclusively a function of either time to death or chronological age, and others display different patterns between the sexes. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/ThanoEmpirical
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, age, demographic accounting, disability, methodology, morbidity, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Melanie D. Sereny Brasher
Author-Name: Danan Gu
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Older parents benefit more in health outcome from daughters’ than sons’ care in China
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eckart Voland
Author-Name: Kai P. Willführ
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Why does paternal death accelerate the transition to first marriage in the C18-C19 Krummhörn population?
Abstract: In the population of the Krummhörn (Ostfriesland, Germany) in the 18th and 19th centuries, paternal death led to an accelerated marriage of his children on average. Three evolutionary explanations are offered for this “paternal absence” effect in the literature, namely (i) the assumption of an adaptive “psychosocial acceleration” of the children with pre-pubertal experience of uncertainty within the framework of evolutionary life history theory, (ii) an adaptive adjustment of life and reproduction decisions within the theoretical framework of behavioral ecology as a reaction to the personal cost-benefit balances changed by the father’s death, and (iii) in view of the genetic parent-offspring conflict, an increase in the reproductive autonomy of offspring after the loss of the dominant father figure. Our models, which are based on the analyses of the vital-statistics data derived primarily from church registers and compiled into a family reconstitution study, attribute the greatest explanatory power to the behavioral ecology approach (ii) for the circumstances in the Krummhörn. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, family reconstitution, historical demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan F. Fox
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe
Abstract: Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development turns positive at high levels of development. Here we investigate whether such a turnaround could also occur at the sub-national regional level in highly developed countries. In the theoretical section we discuss important trends that might foster the emergence of a positive relationship within such countries. Our empirical analysis focuses on Europe, which is comprised of a number of highly developed countries with comparatively high fertility levels. We investigate data for 20 countries between 1990 and 2012. Using panel regression techniques, we find evidence for the emergence of a positive—or, at the very least, less negative—relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. Moreover, the results indicate that there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies toward a reversal are observed. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, economic development, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Renewal and stability in populations structured by remaining years of life
Abstract: The Lotka-Leslie renewal model is the core of formal demography. This model is structured by chronological age, and it does not account for thanatological age. I derive a speciﬁcation of the classic renewal equation that is structured by thanatological age rather than by chronological age. I give both continuous and discrete variants of the derived model, and relate these to the Lotka-Leslie renewal model. In stability, the thanatological and chronological renewal models are commensurable, implying identical intrinsic growth rates. I demonstrate approximate symmetry be- tween chronological and thanatological age structure in stability when subject to intrinsic growth rates equal magnitude and opposite sign. Birth-death renewal processes can be expressed as death-birth processes, and vice versa. The thanatological renewal model oﬀers a new perspective on population renewal, and it is valid more generally as an aspect of birth-death processes. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/ThanoRepro
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: stable population
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jonas Schöley
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francisco Villavicencio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A unified framework of demographic time
Abstract: Demographic thought and practice is largely conditioned by the Lexis diagram, a two-dimensional graphical representation of the identity between age, period, and birth cohort. This relationship does not account for remaining years of life or other related time measures, whose use in demographic research is both underrepresented and incompletely situated. We describe a three-dimensional relationship between six diﬀerent measures of demographic time: chronological age, time to death, lifespan, time of birth, time of death, and period. We describe four identities among subsets of these six measures, and a full identity that relates the six of them. One of these identities is the age-period-cohort identity, while the other three are relatively novel. We provide a topological overview of the diagrams that pertain to these identities. The 3-d geometric representation of the full six-way identity is proposed as a coordinate system that fully describes temporal variation in demographic data. We oﬀer this framework as an instrument to enable the discovery of yet-undescribed relationships and patterns in formal and empirical demography. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/APCT
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Advanced maternal age and offspring outcomes: causal effects and countervailing period trends
Abstract: Women are having children later in the developed world. The mean age at first birth has increased in each of the 23 OECD countries since 1970, now averaging 28, and advanced-age fertility has also been increasing. Advanced maternal age is associated with increased risk of poor perinatal outcomes, as well as an increased risk of mortality and cancer in adulthood. The research documenting these negative outcomes, however, neglects the potential benefits of being born at a later date. For a prospective parent, delaying parenthood means that the child is born in a later birth cohort. This is beneficial, as for many important outcomes from health to educational attainment, secular trends are positive. We illustrate this general principle using data from Sweden, and show that the macro level contextual trends outweigh the individual risk factors. As a result, fertility postponement even beyond age 40 is positively associated with long-term offspring outcomes. 
Length: 68 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: first birth, maternal age
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alice Goisis
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Secular changes in the association between advanced maternal age and the risk of low birth weight: a cross-cohort comparison in the UK
Abstract: Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child well-being and advanced maternal ages. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus are changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at advanced ages. This is the first study that tests secular changes in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies covering births from 1958-2001, and use low birth weight as a marker for child health. We find that across successive birth cohorts, the association between advanced maternal age and low birth weight becomes progressively weaker, and is negligible statistically and substantively for the 2001 cohort. Among current cohorts advanced maternal age does not predict low birth weight, but if selection into older maternal ages had not changed, it would still predict strongly increased risk of giving birth to a low birth weight child. 
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Olga Penina
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pavel Grigoriev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Producing reliable mortality estimates in the context of distorted population statistics: the case of Moldova
Abstract: Background and Aim Despite having a functioning population register, the official demographic indicators in Moldova are seriously biased. The problem arises primarily because the registration of deaths and births covers only the events that occur within the country (the de facto population), whereas the population at risk includes Moldovan citizens who live abroad (the de jure population). Because the country has high levels of emigration, there are substantial differences between the de facto and the de jure population numbers. Thus, the nominator-denominator bias must be taken into account in the population statistics. To obtain plausible demographic rates, appropriate corrections of population size have to be made. Our aim is to estimate the size of the de facto Moldovan population, and to produce reliable mortality estimates for the longest period possible. Data and Methods We rely on official data obtained from various sources. These include mortality data, census counts, and annual population estimates collected from archives or obtained directly from the Moldovan National Bureau of Statistics. Using alternative administrative data sources, we first correct the size of the Moldovan population. We then generate adjusted population estimates. Finally, on the basis of the adjusted population estimates, we produce life tables. All of the calculations are performed using the methodology and programming tools developed within the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Project. Results Our corrected population estimates are 18 percent lower than the official figures. The adjusted estimates of life expectancy at birth in 2014 are 64.94 years for males and 73.74 years for females. These figures are, respectively, 2.58 years and 1.65 years lower than the official estimates. Our estimates of the size of the population are consistent with unpublished 2014 population census data. Complete life tables for the period 1970–2014, as well as some other HMD statistics, are provided as supplementary material. Conclusions We show that even when there is a serious distortion of population statistics, it is possible to obtain plausible mortality estimates. This issue is highly relevant not just for Moldova, but for other European countries that have also been experiencing problems with the incorrect registration of migration. To improve the quality of their population estimates, countries will increasingly have to consult alternative administrative data sources. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Moldova, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Linda George
Author-Name: Melanie Sereny
Author-Name: Danan Gu
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Older parents enjoy better filial piety and care from daughters than sons in China
Abstract: This study based on analyzing the unique datasets of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey clearly demonstrate that, compared to having son(s), having daughter(s) is beneficial at older ages, with regards to enjoying greater filial piety from and better relationships with children and satisfaction with care provided by children. The daughter-advantages of enjoying greater filial piety from and better relationships with children are more profound among oldest-old aged 80+ compared to young-old aged 65-79, and surprisingly more profound in rural areas compared to urban areas, while son-preference is much more prevalent among rural residents. We also discuss why the rigorous fertility policy until October 2015 and less-developed pension system in rural areas substantially contribute to the sustentation of the traditional son-preference which resulted in high sex ratio at birth (SRB) when fertility is low. We recommend China to take integrative policy actions of informing the public that having daughter(s) is beneficial for old age care, developing rural pension system and implementing the most recently announced universal two-child policy as soon as possible. We believe that these policy actions would help China to change the traditional son-preference, bringing down the high SRB, and enable more future elderly parents to enjoy their life including better care provided by daughters. 
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2015-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2015-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China, daughters, parents, sons
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2015-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Fertility in Rostock in the 19th Century
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan F. Fox
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kai P. Willführ
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alain Gagnon
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lisa Y. Dillon
Author-Name: Eckart Voland
Title: The consequences of sibling rivalry on survival and reproductive success across different ecological contexts: a comparison of the historical Krummhörn and Quebec populations
Abstract: This article investigates the relationship between large families and the probability of offspring survival, marriage, and fertility across the historical populations of the Quebec (1670-1799) and Krummhörn regions (1720-1874). Both populations exist in agriculturally based economies, but differ in important ways. The Krummhörn population faced a fixed supply of land, which was concentrated amongst a small number of farmers. Most individuals were landless agricultural workers who formed a relatively competitive labor supply for the large farmers. In contrast, individuals in Quebec had access to a large supply of land, but with far fewer available agricultural workers, had to rely on their family to develop and farm that land. Results indicate that more siblings of the same gender were generally associated with increases in mortality during infancy and childhood, later ages of first marriage, and fewer numbers of children ever born. For mortality and age at first marriage, the effects of sibling formation appear strongest in the Krummhörn region. This indicates that although sibship effects appear in both ecological contexts, that the context of the region mattered in determining their magnitude.
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Canada, Germany, child mortality, historical demography, reproduction, siblings
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tobias C. Vogt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pavel Grigoriev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: German East-West mortality difference: two cross-overs driven by smoking
Abstract: Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, mortality was considerably higher in the former East than West Germany. The gap narrowed rapidly after German unification, particularly for women, to the point that Eastern women aged 50-64 now have lower mortality, despite lower incomes and worse overall living conditions. Prior research shows that lower smoking rates among East German females was a major contributor to this cross-over. However since 1990, higher smoking rates have been observed among women in the eastern part of Germany. We forecast the impact of this changing smoking behavior on East-West mortality differentials and find that the higher smoking rates among younger East German cohorts will reverse their contemporary mortality advantage. Experience from other countries show that smoking can be effectively reduced by strict anti-smoking policies. Instead, East Germany is becoming a warning example of the consequences of weakening anti-smoking policies and changing behavioral norms. 
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, forecasts, mortality, smoking
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Recent trends in US working life expectancy at age 50 by gender, education, and race/ethnicity and the impact of the Great Recession
Abstract: A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working lives. We use the US Health and Retirement Study for 1992-2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 by gender, race/ethnicity, and education. Despite declines of 1-2 years following the Great Recession, in 2008-2011 American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; while American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. At age 50, the working life expectancy of college-educated individuals is twice as long as that of individuals with no high school education, and the working life expectancy of whites is one-third longer than that of blacks or Hispanics. These differentials are driven by labor force attachment, not mortality. Although educational differences have been stable over the past 20 years, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that while Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, there is considerable sub-population heterogeneity. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Govert E. Bijwaard
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Per Tynelius
Author-Name: Finn Rasmussen
Title: Education, cognitive ability and cause-specific mortality: a structural approach
Abstract: Education is negatively associated with mortality for most major causes of death. The literature ignores that cause-specific hazard rates are interdependent and that education and mortality both depend on cognitive ability. We analyze the education-mortality gradient at ages 18-63 using Swedish register data. We focus on months lost due to a specific cause of death which solves the interdependence problem, and use a structural model that derives cognitive ability from military conscription IQ scores. We derive the educational gains in months lost and the selection effects for each cause of death, and quantify the selection contribution of observed characteristics and unobserved cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model that controls for observed IQ, primary education was associated with 6 months lost when compared to secondary education. In a structural model that accounts for cognitive ability the difference was 43% larger. In addition, the largest educational gains were achieved for the lowest education group in the reduction of external cause mortality. The educational gains in cardiovascular mortality was small, mainly due to large selection effects. These results suggest that educational differences in cause specific mortality may be biased by conventional Cox regression analyses. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Hällsten
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Birth order and college major in Sweden
Abstract: Previous research on birth order has consistently shown that later-borns have lower educational attainment than first-borns, however it is not known whether there are birth order patterns in college major. Given empirical evidence that parents disproportionately invest in first born children, there are likely to be birth order patterns attributable to differences in both opportunities and preferences, related to ability, human capital specialization through parent-child transfers of knowledge, and personality. Birth order patterns in college major specialization may shed light on these explanatory mechanisms, and may also account for long-term birth order differences in educational and labour market outcomes. Furthermore, given that within-family differences in resource access are small compared to between-family differences, the explanatory potential of these mechanisms has the potential to say much more about inequality production mechanisms in society at large. Using Swedish population register data and sibling fixed effects we find large birth order differences in university applications. First-borns are more likely to apply to, and graduate from, medicine and engineering programs at university, while later-borns are more likely to study journalism and business programs, and to attend art school. We also find that these birth order patterns are stronger in high SES families. These results indicate that early life experiences and parental investment shapes sibling differences in ability, preferences, and ambitions even within the shared environment of the family. 
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, birth order
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Dribe
Author-Name: Francesco Scalone
Title: Spatial and social distance in the fertility transition: Sweden 1880-1900
Abstract: Most existing studies on the fertility transition focus either on macro-level trends or on micro-level patterns with limited geographic scope. Much less attention has been given to the interplay between individual characteristics and contextual conditions, including geographic location. This paper contributes to closing this research gap. We investigate the relevance of geography and socioeconomic status (SES) for understanding fertility variation in the initial phase of the fertility decline in Sweden. Spatially-sensitive multi-level analyses are applied to study fertility trends by SES and parish, using full-count individual-level census data for 1880, 1890, and 1900. Our results show that the elite not only constituted the vanguard group in the fertility decline, but that the shift in fertility behavior occurred quickly among this social class in virtually all parts of Sweden. Other social classes experienced the decline with some delay in both central and peripheral areas, and their patterns of decline were more clustered in and around the early centers of the decline compared to the pattern of the elite. Long-distance migrants, who were disproportionately represented among the elite and who initially had higher fertility, were among the pioneers in the process. This suggests that factors such as social connectedness through space and local social embeddedness were important in determining the early adoption of changes in fertility behavior. Our results confirm the view that social status and social class boundaries were of considerable relevance in structuring the fertility transition. The importance of space for understanding variation in the fertility decline seems to be negatively correlated with social status, with the pattern of decline among the elite showing the lowest degree of spatial variation. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility decline, geography, social classes, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: María A. López Gómez
Author-Name: Fernando G. Benavides
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A lost generation? The financial crisis and the length of working life in Spain
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, working life
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Parental age and offspring mortality: negative effects of reproductive aging are outweighed by secular increases in longevity
Abstract: As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing as well. Advanced maternal and paternal ages have been associated with a range of negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the benefits of being born at a later date. We analyse mortality among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born in 1938-1960, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time invariant factors shared by the siblings. We show that there are no adverse effects of childbearing at advanced maternal ages, and that offspring mortality declines monotonically with advancing paternal age. This positive effect is attributable to the increase in life expectancy over successive birth cohorts, which dominates over individual-level factors that may have negative effects on offspring longevity, such as reproductive ageing. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, ageing, longevity, mortality, parents, reproduction
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tomas Frejka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective
Abstract: The principal focus of this paper is to analyze the fertility transition of the 19th to early 21st centuries with cohort fertility measures, and a discussion of key societal conditions shaping the transition. This new approach and procedure reveals that there were four different fertility transition pathways. Arguably equally important is the finding that thus far the demographic transition has not resulted in an equilibrium of relatively stable low mortality and stable low fertility. Early in the 21st century mortality is continuing to decline steadily, fertility is generally below replacement, and fertility trends are in a flux with a tendency towards further declines. The four types of fertility transition patterns were: a. The “Western” distinguished by major cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) fluctuations; b.  The Central and East European characterized by a stable CTFR band around 2.0 births per woman in the 1920s to 1950s birth cohorts; c. The Southern European characterized by a relatively stable secular CTFR decline; d.  The East and South-East Asian characterized by rapidly declining CTFRs starting as late as in the middle of the 20th century. In all four fertility transition pathways almost all CTFRs were below replacement in the youngest cohorts born in the 1960s and early 1970s ending their childbearing early in the 21st century. The higher CTFRs, mostly between 1.7 and 2.0 births per woman, were in the “Western” populations, the lowest of 1.2 to 1.6 in East and South-East Asia. The exploration of societal conditions shaping mortality and fertility trends confirm Notestein’s conclusions formulated 70 years ago (Notestein 1945 and 1953). This investigation has shown that it was a complex combination of “technological, social, economic, and political developments,” and also of cultural and ideational effects – revealed by subsequent research, especially of Coale (1973) as well as of Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa (1986) – which shape mortality and fertility trends. Furthermore, Notestein observed that it is “impossible to be precise about the various causal factors” generating mortality and fertility trends.  Primary causal factors alternated between economic, social, political, policy and other factors.   Keywords: Demographic transition – Pathways of the fertility transition – International comparative analysis – Cohort fertility – Causes of the demographic transition 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.humanfertility.org/Research/Reports
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: cohort fertility, comparative analysis, demographic transition
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Radosław Poniat
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The Patriarchy Index: a new measure of gender and generational inequalities in the past
Abstract: In this article, we present a new measure for use in cross-cultural studies of family-driven age- and gender-related inequalities. This composite measure, which we call the Patriarchy Index, combines a range of variables related to familial behaviour that reflect varying degrees of sex- and age-related social inequality across different family settings. We demonstrate the comparative advantages of the index by showing how 266 historical populations living in regions stretching from the Atlantic coast of Europe to Moscow scored on the patriarchy scale. We then compare the index with contemporary measures of gender discrimination, and find a strong correlation between historical and current inequality patterns. Finally, we explore how variation in patriarchy levels across Europe is related to the socio-economic and institutional characteristics of the regional populations, and to variation across these regions in their degree of demographic centrality and in their environmental conditions. Overall, the results of our study confirm previous findings that family organisation is a crucial generator of social inequality, and point to the importance of considering the historical context when analysing the current global contours of inequality. 
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2016
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2016-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2016-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, gender, patriarchy, social heterogeneity, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2016-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Govert E. Bijwaard
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Per Tynelius
Author-Name: Finn Rasmussen
Title: Educational gain in cause-specific mortality: accounting for confounders
Abstract: For many causes of death a negative educational gradient has been found. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both education attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-speciﬁc educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors, using an innovative method based on months lost due to a speciﬁc cause of death re-weighted by the probability to attain a higher education level. We use men with brothers in the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative Swedish registers. These data, comprising 700,000 men, allow us to distinguish ﬁve education levels and many causes of death.   The empirical results reveal that improving education from primary to higher education would lead to 20 months longer survival between 18 and 63. The reduction in death due to external causes when improving education is attributable to most of these gains. Ignoring confounding would underestimate the educational gains, especially for the low educated. Implied by our results is that if 50,000 men from the 1951 cohort had had the 1983 education distribution they would have saved 22% of the person-years between ages 18 and 63 that were lost to death. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Zeng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Huashuai Chen
Author-Name: Xiaomin Liu
Author-Name: Rui Ye
Author-Name: Enjun Xie
Author-Name: Zhihua Chen
Author-Name: Jiehua Lu
Author-Name: Jianxin Li
Author-Name: Yaohua Tian
Author-Name: Ting Ni
Author-Name: Lars Bolund
Author-Name: Kenneth C. Land
Author-Name: Anatoliy Yashin
Author-Name: Angela M. O'Rand
Author-Name: Liang Sun
Author-Name: Ze Yang
Author-Name: Wei Tao
Author-Name: Anastasia Gurinovic
Author-Name: Claudio Franceschi
Author-Name: Jichun Xie
Author-Name: Jun Gu
Author-Name: Yong Hou
Author-Name: Xiao Liu
Author-Name: Xun Xu
Author-Name: Jean-Marie Robine
Author-Name: Joris Deelen
Author-Name: Paola Sebastiani
Author-Name: P. Eline Slagboom
Author-Name: Thomas T. Perls
Author-Name: Elizabeth R. Hauser
Author-Name: William Gottschalk
Author-Name: Qihua Tan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Author-Name: Mike Lutz
Author-Name: Xiao-Li Tian
Author-Name: Huanming Yang
Author-Name: Junxia Min
Author-Name: Chao Nie
Author-Name: James W. Vaupel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sex differences in genetic associations with longevity in Han Chinese: sex-stratified genome-wide association study and polygenic risk score analysis
Abstract: Based on sex-stratified genome-wide association study (GWAS) of Han Chinese, 2,178 centenarians and 2,299 middle-aged controls, we identified 11 male- and 12 female-specific independent loci that are significantly associated with longevity (P-5), replicated in independent North and South regions in one sex, but are not significant (P>0.05) in the other sex. We found that the association of rs60210535 at LINC00871 with longevity replicated well between Chinese females (P=4.6x10-5) and U.S. females (P=9.0x10-5), but was not significant in both Chinese and U.S. males (P>0.05). We discovered that 11 male-specific and 34 female-specific pathways are significantly associated with longevity (PFDR) P-5 in one sex, P>0.05 in other sex), 44/58 male/female strong loci (10-5≤P-4 in one sex, P>0.4 or P>0.35 in other sex), and 191/311 male/female moderate loci (10-4≤P-3 in one sex, P>0.75 or P>0.7 in other sex) are jointly and highly associated with longevity exceeding a significance level P10-8 in one sex, but not jointly associated with longevity in the other sex (P>0.05). Our integrated PRS and novel sex-specific genetic  relative benefit/loss ratio analyses indicate that females’ genetic constitution favors longevity more than males’. Further interdisciplinary collaborative efforts are warranted, such as replications from other populations, international meta-analyses with much larger sample size, lab tests, and in silico functional validations.   Significance Statement: On average, women live significantly longer lives than men but they have lower physical performance and more adverse health outcomes at older ages compared to men: patterns that signify the male-female health-survival paradox (1). Research on sex differences in health and mortality has proliferated, but has yet to achieve a good understanding of the effects of genetic variants on the sex gap in longevity and health. Based on sex-stratified genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of Han Chinese including centenarians with a sample size 2.7 times as large as other published largest single GWAS on longevity involving centenarians (2), the present study aims to contribute a better understanding of sex differences in genetic associations with longevity. 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-004-supplemental_materials.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Formation and realisation of moving intentions across the adult life course
Abstract: In the theoretical discussion on migration and moving behaviour, it is frequently argued that life course events such as the birth of a child or entry into retirement can act as potential triggers for moving decisions. However, in order to fully understand moving behaviour, it is important to examine not just people’s actual life course and moving events, but also their prior plans, as not all life course intentions and potentially related moving intentions are realised. In this paper, we analyse representative data for Norway that provide us with a rare opportunity to study these issues empirically. For the purposes of our study, we linked information from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) with follow-up data from the Norwegian population register. The GGS is a representative life course survey that covers the adult population of Norway. It provides rich information on intentions in a broad range of life domains. In our multivariate analyses, we distinguish three life phases: the young adult phase, the family phase, and the retirement phase. Our outcomes confirm existing findings that moving intentions are highly predictive of subsequent behaviour. For all three life phases, we obtain highly significant associations between intentions in various life domains and moving intentions. In line with the theoretical framework, we find that the relationship between these intentions and subsequent moving behaviour is relatively weak, while the subsequent occurrence of life course events is more strongly related to actual moves. 
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway, decision making, life cycle, migration, migration determinants, residential mobility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Adrien Remund
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Carlo G. Camarda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A cause-of-death decomposition of the young adult mortality hump
Abstract: We propose a method to decompose the young adult mortality hump by cause of death. This method is based on a flexible shape-decomposition of mortality rates that separates cause-of-death contributions to the hump from senescent mortality. We apply the method to US males and females from 1959 to 2010. Results show divergences between time trends of hump and observed deaths, both for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The study of the hump shape reveals age, period and cohort effcts, suggesting that it is formed by a complex combination of different forces of biological and socioeconomic nature. Male and female humps share some traits in all-cause shape and trend, but also differ by their overall magnitude and cause-specific contributions. Notably, among males the contributions of traffic and other accidents were progressively replaced by those of suicides, homicides and poisonings, whereas among females traffic accidents remained the major contributor to the hump. 
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angela Carollo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sven Drefahl
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Carlo G. Camarda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaare Christensen
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does the age difference between partners influence the career achievements of women?
Abstract: Women earn less than men at most career stages, and they also tend to partner with older men. This study investigates whether being the younger partner in a marriage reduces a woman’s incentive to pursue an independent career. We hypothesize that the income gender gap might be partially explained by the age differences between spouses. Using both a within-twin (n = 4716) and pooled-twin (n = 13354) design to more readily account for differences in early household environments, we investigated for Denmark whether the age gap between a female twin and her partner has any influence on her income. The hypothesis could not be confirmed, as the age gap between partners did not appear to be associated with women’s earnings. The finding that women’s wages were generally unaffected by partnering with an older man could be a result of heterogeneous groups of women entering men-older partnerships. Future research should explore this question further by using the number of promotions to assess the career success of women, and should extend this work to countries with different social welfare systems and less egalitarian gender norms. 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tobias C. Vogt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Trends in gender differences in health and mortality at working ages among West and East Germans
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, gender, health, satisfaction, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: An ordinal measure of population health
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mathias Lerch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Urban and rural fertility transitions in the developing world: a cohort perspective
Abstract: Although the role of urbanization in fertility decline remains debated, few studies have assessed long-term fertility trends by urban/rural place of residence. Relying on successive surveys for 55 countries, we analyze the diffusion of cohort fertility decline in urban and rural areas across Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. We show that, once the fertility transition is initiated, the decline in urban areas is similarly fast in all three continents. The pattern of the urban-to-rural diffusion of birth limitation, however, has differed significantly. In Latin American and Caribbean countries, the evolution in the rural-urban fertility differentials followed an inverted U-shaped pattern over the fertility transition. In Asia, the differences remained more limited, because of a parallel decline in fertility by type of place of residence, whereas in Africa they increased monotonically because rural areas have not yet experienced significant fertility declines. The implications of these results for urban population projections and for our understanding of the international variations in the pace of fertility transition are discussed. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-011.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Radosław Poniat
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family organisation and human capital inequalities in historic Europe: testing the association anew
Abstract: There has been growing interest in the question of whether variation in family systems is a factor in the disparities in growth, development, and human capital formation. Studies by proponents of the field of New Institutional Economics have suggested that differences in family organisation could have considerable influence on regional developmental inequalities in today’s world, while a number of economic historians have argued that certain systems of marriage and household structure in the European past might have been more conducive than others to economic growth. Despite recent criticism of these ideas by Dennison and Ogilvie, who argued that the family has no exogenous effects on growth, the debate over this potential relationship continues. However, we believe that this discussion has been suffering from a lack of historical data that would give a fuller picture of the rich diversity of family settings, and from methodological shortcomings that have so far hindered the proper operationalisation of historical family systems and their potential effects on developmental outcomes. In this paper, we apply a recently developed multidimensional measure of historic familial organisation, the Patriarchy Index; and use spatially sensitive multivariate analyses to investigate its relationship with human capital levels, as approximated by numeracy across 115 populations of historic Europe. We find a strong negative association between the Patriarchy Index and regional numeracy patterns that remains significant even after controlling for a broad range of other important factors. Our observation that family-driven age- and gender-related inequalities, as captured by the index, are relevant for understanding variation in basic numeracy patterns in the past suggests that there are indeed important links between family organisation and human capital accumulation that merit further investigation. 
Length: 40 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, economic and social development, historical demography, patriarchy, spatial analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ben Wilson
Title: Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula
Abstract: Theories predict that the timing of childbearing and number of children born are determined by multiple socio-economic factors. Despite this, many methods are unable to investigate the interrelationships between these determinants, including the direct and indirect influence that they have on fertility over the life course. Here we use the parametric g-formula to examine the interdependent influences of time-varying socio-economic processes – education, employment status and partnership status – on fertility. To demonstrate this approach, we study a cohort of women who were born in the UK in 1970. Our results show that socio-economic processes play an important role in determining fertility, not only directly but also indirectly. We show that increasing higher education attendance has a largely direct effect on early childbearing up to age 25, resulting in a substantial increase in childlessness. However, childbearing at later ages is dominated by an indirect effect of education on fertility, via partnership status and employment status, that is twice as large as the direct effect. We also use the g-formula to examine bias due to unobserved heterogeneity, and demonstrate that our results appear to be robust. We conclude that the method provides a valuable tool for mediation analysis in studies of interdependent life course processes.   Key words: fertility, socio-economic determinants, mediation, g-formula, UK 
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, fertility determinants, socio-economic conditions, statistical analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonas Wood
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karel Neels
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Is a positive link between human development and fertility attainable? Insights from the Belgian vanguard case
Abstract: It is expected that by the end of the 21st century the vast majority of the human population will live in densely populated environments that are frequently characterized by low fertility. Belgium constitutes one of the few recently emerged cases, where a densely populated and highly developed country not only escapes from low fertility, but also exhibits positive associations between education and childbearing. It has been argued, that these patterns might be related to Belgium’s extensive policies supporting the reconciliation of family and career goals, and that especially highly educated people are benefiting from these policies. We look into these hypotheses by studying a unique micro-dataset covering all Belgian residents between 2002 and 2005. The main focus is on the relevance of between-municipality variation in economic conditions and social services for understanding variation in second birth risks by educational attainment. Our results suggest that the second birth risks of highly educated women are by far most sensitive to variation in local conditions. Controlling for ethnic composition effects and internal migration, we reveal that a considerable part of the local variation in the educational gradient in second births can be related to a positive link between fertility and economic conditions as well as social services for the highly educated. Low educated mothers, on the other hand, are found to be less likely to progress to a second child in more prosperous municipalities. This provides support for the view that institutional support for families might indeed be very relevant, and this particularly for the highly educated. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belgium, child care, economic and social development, family policies, fertility determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Healthy life expectancy, mortality, and age prevalence of morbidity
Abstract: In calculating period healthy life expectancy, the use of age-specific morbidity prevalence patterns assumes that age captures the important time-variation in the given health condition, i.e. that the disabling process is related to how long an individual has lived. However, many morbidity patterns are better classified by time-to-death. At advanced ages the conﬂation of an increasing chronological-age mortality pattern and a time-to-death morbidity pattern produces an apparent morbidity pattern that increases with advancing age. Differences in period healthy life expectancy over time or between populations cannot easily be partitioned into morbidity and mortality components because the period morbidity pattern may depend on an unknown future time-to-death process not captured by period mortality. We illustrate these concepts formally and empirically, using morbidity data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. While holding the time-to-death morbidity pattern fixed, we show that mortality reduction alone reduces the total life years with disability. We estimate the magnitude of this bias for different realistic morbidity patterns. This has implications for any between- or within-population comparisons of period healthy life expectancy conditioned on different age patterns of mortality. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/HLETTD
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2017-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Evgeny M. Andreev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The decomposition of the difference between two healthy life expectancies: which formula is right?
Abstract: About two months ago, a colleague asked me to look at a preliminary version of a working paper written by him together with two other researchers. The topic of the paper was how patterns of morbidity prevalence influence the length of healthy life. Among other analyses, the authors presented an age decomposition of a change in healthy life expectancy (HLE). The text of the working paper included references to two studies published in the early 2000s, which were the first to introduce formulas for decomposing the difference between two HLE values by age, and by health and mortality within each age. In this note, we intend to clarify this apparent discrepancy by demonstrating 1) the correctness of the method by Andreev, Shkolnikov, and Begun 2002; and 2) the flaws in the method related to mortality components by Nusselder and Looman 2004. 
Length: 6 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Expanding the Markov chain tool box: distributions of occupation times and waiting times
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: José M. Aburto
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy ﬂuctuation: the case of Central and Eastern Europe
Abstract: Central and Eastern Europe have experienced considerable instability in mortality since the 1960s. Long periods of stagnating life expectancy were followed by rapid increases in life expectancy and in some cases even more rapid declines before more recent periods of improvement. These trends have been well documented but to date, no study has comprehensively explored trends in lifespan variation. We improve such analyses by incorporating life disparity as a health indicator alongside life expectancy. We analyzed how lifespan variation has changed since the 1960s for 12 countries from the region and determined the ages which have contributed the most to the observed variability in age at death. Furthermore, we quantiﬁed the effect of mortality related to alcohol consumption on life disparity since 1994. Our results showed that life disparity was high and strongly ﬂuctuating over the time period. Life expectancy and life disparity moved independently from one another, particularly during periods of life expectancy stagnation. Fluctuations in mortality were, to a large extent, directly or partially attributable to changes in alcohol consumption. These trends run counter to the common patterns observed in most developed countries and contribute to the life expectancy-disparity discussion by showing that expansion/compression levels do not necessarily mean lower/higher life expectancy or mortality deterioration/improvements. 
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, age at death, alcoholism, causes of death, differential mortality, inequality, life expectancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Estimating male fertility from vital registration data with missing values
Abstract: Comparative perspectives on male fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data often do not include paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate male age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which the paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age. To assess the performance of these two methods, we conduct simulations that mimic vital registration data for Sweden, the U.S., Spain, and Estonia. In these simulations, we vary the overall proportion and the age selectivity of missing values. We find that the conditional approach outperforms the unconditional approach in the majority of simulations, and should therefore generally be preferred. 
Length: 61 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cognitive ability and fertility amongst Swedish men: evidence from 18 cohorts of military conscription
Abstract: We examine the relationship between cognitive ability and childbearing patterns in contemporary Sweden using administrative register data. The topic has a long history in the social sciences and has been the topic of a large number of studies, many arguing for a negative gradient between intelligence and fertility. We link fertility histories to military conscription tests with intelligences scores for all Swedish born men born 1951 to 1967. We find an overall positive relationship between intelligence scores and fertility and that is consistent across our cohorts. The relationship is most pronounced for transition to a first child, and that men with the lowest categories of IQ-scores have the fewest children. Using fixed effects models we additionally control for all factors that are shared across siblings, and after such adjustments we find a stronger positive relationship between IQ and fertility. Furthermore, we find a positive gradient within groups of different lengths of education. Compositional differences of this kind are therefore not responsible for the positive gradient we observe - instead the relationship is even stronger after controlling for both educational careers and parental background factors. In our models where we compare brothers to one another we find that relative to men with IQ 100, the group with the lowest category of cognitive ability have 0.58 fewer children, and men with the highest category have 0.14 more children. 
Length: 51 pages
Creation-Date: 2017
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2017-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility, intelligence, men, military service
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2017-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel Grigoriev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anatoli I. Michalski
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vasily P. Gorlischev
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: New methods for estimating detailed fertility schedules from abridged data
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2018
File-URL: https://www.humanfertility.org/Research/Reports
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2018-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2018-001-supplemental_materials.zip
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2018-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2018-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2018-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Torkild H. Lyngstad
Author-Name: Dalton Conley
Title: The production of inequalities within families and across generations: the intergenerational effects of birth order and family size on educational attainment
Abstract: There has long been interest in the extent to which effects of social stratification extend and persist across generations. We take a novel approach to this question by asking whether birth order and sibling group size in the parental generation influences the educational attainment of their children. To address this question we use Swedish population data on cohorts born 1960-1982. To study the effects of parental birth order and family size we apply a cousin fixed effects design and exploit information on twin births in the parents generation. Relative to having a first-born mother, having a second-born or fifth-born mother is associated with educational attainment at age 30 being 4% and 8% of a standard deviation lower, respectively. After adjusting for attained parental education and social class, the parental birth order effect is heavily attenuated. Nevertheless, we do find that children who share the same birth order and gender as their parents attain slightly more education, and this is particularly pronounced when the parents have higher levels of education themselves. We do not find clear or consistent evidence for parental sibling group size effects. Overall our results suggest that birth order and family size effects operate through a Markovian process of transmission. 
Length: 76 pages
Creation-Date: 2018
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2018-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2018-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, birth order, education, family size, population registers
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2018-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2018-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joseph Molitoris
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: When birth spacing does and does not matter for child survival: an international comparison using the DHS
Abstract: A large body of research has found an association between short birth intervals and the risk of infant mortality in developing countries, but recent work from highly developed countries has called these claims into question, arguing that previous estimates have been biased by a failure to adequately control for unobserved heterogeneity. This study addresses this issue by estimating within-family models on a sample of 4.5 million births from 77 countries at various levels of development. We show that even after controlling for unobserved maternal heterogeneity, intervals less than 24 months substantially increase the probability of infant death, and this relationship is present in all countries in our analysis. We do show, however, that the importance of birth intervals as a determinant of infant mortality varies inversely with maternal education. Finally, we demonstrate that the mortality-reducing effects of longer birth intervals are strong at low levels of development but decline steadily towards zero as populations become healthier and wealthier. These findings offer a clear way to reconcile previous research showing that birth intervals are important for infant mortality in low-income countries, but much less consequential in high-income settings. 
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2018
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2018-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2018-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: birth spacing, demographic and health surveys, infant mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2018-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2018-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anneli Ivarsson
Title: Interpregnancy intervals and perinatal and child health in Sweden: a comparison within families and across social groups
Abstract: Until recently a large body of research conducted in high-income countries had shown that children born after an especially short or especially long birth interval are at an elevated risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, being small for gestational age, as well as other poor perinatal outcomes. However, a handful of recent studies that have adjusted for shared family background more effectively have cast doubt on that conclusion. We use Swedish population data on cohorts born 1981-2010 and sibling fixed effects models to examine whether the length of the birth interval preceding the index person has an impact on the risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, and hospitalization during childhood. We additionally present for the first time for this particular research question analyses stratified by salient social characteristics such as maternal educational level, and maternal country of birth. Overall, we find few effects of birth intervals on our outcomes except for very short birth intervals. Short interpregnancy intervals (60 months) increase the probability of low birth weight and preterm birth. We also find that longer intervals (>42 months) decrease the probability of hospitalization during the first year of life, but interpregnancy intervals greater than 30 months increase the probability of hospitalization between ages 1-3. We find few differences in the patterns by maternal educational level, or by maternal country of origin after stratifying by the mother’s highest attained education. The results from this study contribute to the ongoing debate about whether the length of interpregnancy intervals matter for perinatal and child health in high-income countries. 
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2018
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2018-004.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2018-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, interpregnancy interval, siblings
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2018-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2018-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José M. Aburto
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lexis fields
Length: 6 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/MacroShape
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-001.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: lexis diagram, mortality trends, research methods
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christina Bohk-Ewald
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Boom, echo, pulse, flow: 385 years of Swedish births
Abstract: Human population renewal starts with births. Since births can happen at any time in the year and over a wide range of ages, demographers typically imagine the birth series as a continuous ﬂow. Taking this construct literally, we visualize the Swedish birth series as a ﬂow. A long birth series allows us to juxtapose the children born in a particular year with the children that they in turn had over the course of their lives, yielding a crude notion of cohort replacement. Macro patterns in generational growth deﬁne the meandering path of the ﬂow, while temporal booms and busts echo through the ﬂow with the regularity of a pulse. 
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/BirthFlows
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-002.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Julian Schmied
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Pension adequacy standards: an empirical estimation strategy and results for the United States and Germany
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-003.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nikkil Sudharsanan
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A generalized counterfactual approach to decomposing differences between populations
Abstract: One key objective of the population health sciences is to understand why one social group has different levels of health and well-being compared to another. While several methods have been developed in economics, sociology, demography, and epidemiology to answer these types of questions, a recent method introduced by Jackson and VanderWeele (2018) provided an update to decompositions by anchoring them within causal inference theory. In this paper, we demonstrate how to implement the causal decomposition using Monte Carlo integration and the parametric g-formula. Causal decomposition can help to identify the sources of differences across populations and provide researchers a way to move beyond estimating inequalities to explaining them and determining what can be done to reduce health disparities. Our implementation approach can easily and flexibly be applied for different types of outcome and explanatory variables without having to derive decomposition equations and can also decompose functions of outcomes, such as period life expectancy, that are not based around a simple comparison of means or proportions. We describe the concepts of the approach and the practical steps and considerations needed to implement it. We then walk through a worked example where we investigate the contribution of smoking to sex differences in mortality in South Korea using two different outcomes and contrasts: the age-adjusted mortality risk ratio and the absolute difference in period life expectancy. For both examples, we provide both pseudocode and R code using our package, cfdecomp. Ultimately, we outline how to implement a very general decomposition algorithm that is grounded in counterfactual theory but still easy to apply to a wide range of situations. 
Length: 49 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
Number: WP-2019-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: methods of analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Baudin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Robert Stelter
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The rural exodus and the rise of Europe
Abstract: To assess the importance of the rural exodus in fostering the transition from stagnation to growth, we propose a unified model of growth and internal migrations. Using an original set of Swedish data, we identify the deep parameters of our model. We show that internal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to authorize an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities and the demographic transition of the country. We then compare the respective contribution of shocks on internal migration costs, infant mortality and inequalities in agricultural productivity to the economic take-off and the demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks on labor mobility generate larger delays in the take-off to growth compared to mortality shocks equivalent to the Black Death. Deepening inequalities of productivity in the agricultural sector, like it has been done by enclosure movements, contributes to accelerate urbanization at the cost of depressed economic growth. 
Length: 82 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-005.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications
Abstract: In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable cohort fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, period total fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable fertility. 
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-006.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, cohort fertility, forecasts
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Grätz
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Øyvind Wiborg
Author-Name: Torkild H. Lyngstad
Author-Name: Aleksi Karhula
Author-Name: Jani Erola
Author-Name: Patrick Präg
Author-Name: Thomas Laidley
Author-Name: Dalton Conley
Title: Universal family background effects on education across and within societies
Abstract: The extent to which siblings resemble each other measures the total impact of family background in shaping life outcomes. We study sibling similarity in cognitive skills, school grades, and educational attainment in Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We also compare sibling similarity by parental education and occupation within these societies. The comparison of sibling correlations across and within societies allows us to characterize the omnibus impact of family background on education across social landscapes. We find similar levels of sibling similarity across social groups. Across countries, we find only small differences. In addition, rankings of countries in sibling resemblance differ across the three educational outcomes we study. We conclude that sibling similarity is largely similar across advanced, industrialized countries and across social groups within societies contrary to theories that suggest large cross-national differences and variation of educational mobility across social groups within societies. 
Length: 81 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-007.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Hällsten
Title: Socioeconomic variation in child educational and socioeconomic attainment after parental death in Sweden
Abstract: In this study we use Swedish population register data to examine whether parental death differentially affects educational and occupational attainment according to the socioeconomic status of the parent who dies, and the socioeconomic status of the surviving parent and extended kin. That is, we examine whether parental death has an equalizing or exacerbating effect on offspring socioeconomic attainment, and also whether the socioeconomic status of the rest of the family plays a meaningful role in compensating for parental death. Using data on cohorts born 1973 to 1982 we examine five different outcomes, which are grade point average (GPA) at age 16 in high school, the transition from lower to upper-secondary education, the transition to tertiary education, overall educational attainment, and occupational status by age 30. We match families based upon antemortem parental socioeconomic trajectories. Overall we find mixed results in our between-family regression analyses adjusting for observables, with inconsistent evidence suggesting that losing a parent with very high socioeconomic resources is worse, and some evidence for a protective effect if the socioeconomic resources of the surviving parent and extended family members are at the top of the distribution. Using sibling fixed effects models that adjust for unobservable factors shared within the family, we see zero results for moderation by parents’ SES, but find consistent evidence that it is worse to lose a father at a younger age if grandparents have higher ranked occupations. We discuss possible interpretations of our findings.
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-008.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, education, mortality, parents
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joonas Pitkänen
Author-Name: Heta Moustgaard
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Health of immigrant children: the role of immigrant generation, exogamous family setting, and family material and social resources
Abstract: Children of first-generation immigrants tend to have better health than the native population, but over generations, the health advantage of immigrant children deteriorates. It is, however, poorly understood how family resources can explain health assimilation, whether the process of assimilation varies across health conditions, and where on the generational health assimilation spectrum children with one immigrant and one native parent (exogamous families) lie. We seek to extend our understanding of the process of health assimilation by analyzing the physical and mental health of immigrant generations, assessing the role of exogamous family arrangements, and testing the contribution of family material and social resources on the offspring’s outcomes. We use register-based longitudinal data from a 20% random sample of Finnish households with children born in years 1986-2000, free of reporting bias and loss to follow-up. We estimate the risk of being hospitalized for somatic conditions, psychopathological disorders, and injuries by immigrant generation status. Our results show a negative health assimilation process with higher prevalence of physical and, in particular, mental health problems among second-generation immigrant children than among native children, and to first-generation immigrant children, that is only partially explained by family resources. We find that the children of exogamous families are at especially high risk of developing psychopathological disorders. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that children of exogamous families constitute a specific health risk group, especially for psychopathological disorders, and that the role of the family seems to be is secondary to other unobserved factors. 
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-009.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Robyn Donrovich Thorén
Author-Name: Heidi A. Hanson
Author-Name: Ken R.  Smith
Title: The effect of widowhood on mortality in polygamous marriages: evidence from the Utah Population Database
Abstract: Although the increase in mortality following widowhood has been widely studied, much less is known about how this pattern varies across less common household structures. Polygamous marriages are still prevalent across much of the world, but whether and how mortality varies following the death of a partner has not been studied in polygamous relationships. In this study we use data from the Utah Population Database to examine the relationship between marital status and mortality in polygamous marriages in 19th century Utah. With data on 110,952 women and 106,898 men, we particularly focus on whether the widowhood mortality effect varies between monogamous and polygamous marriages. We examine how the number of wife deaths affects male mortality in polygamous marriages, how the death of a sister wife, meaning other women with whom they share a husband, affects female mortality relative to the death of a husband, as well as how marriage order amongst sister wives affects the mortality of women in polygamous marriages. For women we find that the death of a husband in polygamous marriages increases mortality to a similar extent as in monogamous marriages, while the death of a sister wife does not have a qualitatively different effect on mortality than the death of the husband. Marriage order does not play a role in the mortality of women in polygamous marriages in this historical context. For men we find that the death of one wife in a polygamous marriage increases mortality to a lesser extent than it does for men in monogamous marriages. For men there is a dose-response effect to losing additional wives. We discuss these findings in relation to theories regarding the mechanisms driving the widowhood mortality effect. 
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-010.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Utah, adult mortality, polygamy, widowhood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniela V. Negraia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jennifer M. Augustine
Title: Unpacking the parenting wellbeing gap: the role of dynamic features of daily life across broader social structures
Abstract: Although public debate ensues over whether parents or nonparents have higher levels of emotional well-being, scholars suggest that being a parent is associated with a mixed bag of emotions. Drawing on the American Time Use Survey (2010, 2012, 2013) and unique measures of subjective well-being that capture positive and negative emotions linked to daily activities, we ‘unpack’ this mixed bag. We do so by examining contextual variation in the parenting emotions gap based on: (1) activity type, (2) whether parents’ children were present, (3) parenting stage, and (4) respondent’s gender. We found that parenting was associated with more positive emotions than nonparenting, but also more negative emotions. This pattern only existed during housework and leisure, not during paid work. Moreover, patterns in positive emotions only existed when parents’ children were present; patterns in negative emotions were primarily observed during earlier stages of parenting. Results were similar for men and women. 
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
Number: WP-2019-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, gender, individual welfare, life cycle, mental health, parenthood, time series
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniela V. Negraia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jennifer M. Augustine
Title: SES and the emotional 'benefits' and 'costs' of parenting
Abstract: In today’s society, children’s value to their parents is primarily emotional. As such, scholars have devoted a tremendous amount of effort to understanding how children both enhance, and diminish, the emotional wellbeing of parents. What remains unclear, however, is how these emotional ‘costs’ and ‘benefits’ vary across different socioeconomic segments of U.S. society. We investigate this question using random effects models and a representative sample of adults participating in the American Time Use Survey Wellbeing Module (N activities =52,036, N respondents =17,481). We find that caring for minor children (versus not) is associated with greater levels of positive emotions (happiness, meaning) and less sadness for all socioeconomic groups, but it is only associated with greater levels of negative emotions (stress, fatigue) for higher SES parents. This overall pattern of results was also observed when looking only at men. For women, however, it was only observed among higher SES mothers. For lower SES women, raising children did not seem to enhance, or diminish, emotional wellbeing. We discuss these SES and gender related findings in the context of recent trends in fertility among both lower and higher socioeconomic segments of society, as well as trends in social inequality more broadly.   Key words: wellbeing, parenting, education, time use, gender 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, education, gender, mental health, parenthood, time series
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniela V. Negraia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jill E. Yavorsky
Author-Name: Denys Dukhovnov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Mothers' and fathers' well-being while parenting: does the gender composition of children matter?
Abstract: Objective: This study examines whether—and if so how—gender composition of children matters for mothers’ and fathers’ well-being during parenting activities. Background: Despite that parents interact with girls and boys differently and spend different amounts of time with them, scholars have paid little attention to how gender composition of children may influence parental well-being. Method: The study assessed parental well-being during time spent with children, across four measures of subjective well-being (N = 16,140 activities, 8,621 parents), pooled across three survey waves (2010, 2012, 2013) from the American Time Use Survey Well-being Module. Random intercept models were used to account for the multilevel structure of the data. Results: For both mothers and fathers, gender composition of children was not associated with different levels of positive emotions, like happiness or meaning, while parenting. However, for negative emotions, fathers reported greater stress parenting all girls and mixed-gender children (i.e., girl/s and boy/s at the same time) compared to parenting all boys. Mothers reported greater fatigue and stress parenting all girls, compared to parenting all boys. Differences in parenting activities partially explained the stress patterns, for both fathers and mothers. Conclusion: This study, which is contextualized in broader literature on gender stereotypes, interactional processes and time-use, makes several contributions to research on gender, family, and health and identifies an important factor—gender composition of children—that helps shape mothers’ and fathers’ well-being while parenting. Keywords: childhood/children, gender, family roles, parenting, time-use, well-being 
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
Number: WP-2019-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, childhood, children, family relationship, gender, mental health, parenthood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Victoriya Yuodeshko
Title: Retraditionalization as a pathway to escape lowest-low fertility? Characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom”
Abstract: Over the last two decades, Belarus and Russia have witnessed substantial fertility increases that have catapulted their total fertility rates from lowest-low fertility to levels above 1.7 children per woman. While it is frequently argued that greater gender equality is an important mechanism for overcoming low fertility, these developments seem to have instead been accompanied by a retraditionalization of gender attitudes. This paper uses the 2017 Belarusian Generations and Gender Survey to investigate the characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom.” We show that the fertility increases are driven by two main components: the recuperation of births postponed during the preceding post-communist transition crisis, and fertility increases among cohorts born in the 1980s. These cohorts also display very traditional gender attitudes. While the recuperation will not have a long-term impact, it is more uncertain whether or not the cohort fertility increases will be sustained. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Belarus, below-replacement fertility, cohort fertility, cumulative fertility, fertility increase, life tables
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marilia R. Nepomuceno
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cássio M. Turra
Title: The population of centenarians in Brazil: historical estimates from 1900 to 2000
Abstract: Does anyone know the exact number of centenarians in Brazil? Since the nineteenth century,  the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in one of the most populous countries  worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, and 100 years  later, 24,576 centenarians were recorded in the census. Due to data quality issues, we are  skeptical about the real growth of the recorded population in the census. Therefore, we  produce new statistics of the centenarian population through the variable-r method combined  with different mortality models. We offer a set of estimates of the most likely number of  centenarians in Brazil over the period 1900-2000. There was virtually no centenarian at the  beginning of the twentieth century, and only in the 1990s, the centenarian population  surpassed 1,000 individuals. Our estimates confirm an extensive over-enumeration of  centenarians in census records since 1900. The good news is the improvement in census data  collection over time.  
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: census data, centenarians, data evaluation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joan Costa-i-Font
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Berkay Özcan
Title: Preterm births and educational disadvantage: heterogeneous effects across families and schools
Abstract: Although preterm births are the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in advanced economies, evidence about the consequences of such births later in life is limited. Using Swedish population register data on cohorts born 1982-1994 (N=1,087,750), we examine the effects of preterm births on school grades using sibling fixed effect models which compare individuals with their non-preterm siblings. We test for heterogeneous effects by degree of prematurity, as well as whether family socioeconomic resources and school characteristics can compensate for any negative effects of premature births. Our results show that preterm births can have negative effects on school grades, but these negative effects are largely confined to children born extremely preterm ( 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, education, premature birth, school success
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ben Wilson
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The gendered impacts of delayed parenthood on educational and labor market outcomes: a dynamic analysis of population-level effects over young adulthood
Abstract: Later parenthood is often beneficial for women, but less is known about its impact on men. As first births continue to occur later in life, it is important to understand whether this delay influences the educational and labor market outcomes of women and men differently, and how it changes the socioeconomic characteristics of children’s parents at birth. However, education, employment, and fertility are linked, implying that complex models are required in order to analyze the time-varying impacts of delayed parenthood. We use dynamic longitudinal models and Finnish data to analyze how, and through which socioeconomic mechanisms, a material delay in parenthood is likely to influence educational and labor market outcomes over young adulthood. A three-year delay in young-adult parenthood for all women increases educational enrollment in their early 20s, employment in their late 20s, and partly due to higher education income in their 30s. The impact of the same delay for men is more modest, and almost negligible for their employment, suggesting that later parenthood exacerbates the educational advantage of women and attenuates the income advantage of men. However, it strengthens the socioeconomic standing of both men and women when they become parents, essentially due to the accumulation of effects. 
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-017.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, education, gender, labor market, longitudinal analysis, parenthood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Johan Dahlberg
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michaela Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Trude Lappegård
Author-Name: Peng Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Karel Neels
Author-Name: Bernhard Riederer
Author-Name: Saskia te Riele
Author-Name: Laura Szabó
Author-Name: Alessandra Trimarchi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francicso Viciana
Author-Name: Ben Wilson
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe
Abstract: Educational differences in female cohort fertility have been shown to vary across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries in order to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional estimates of GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. Our results document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable variation in the gradient across regions. The gradient varies systematically by the level of economic development: moving from less to more developed regions, we observe smallergradients both across countries and within countries. However, the within-country patterns of countries differ. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth fertility analyses by education at the sub-national level. 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, cohort fertility, economic development, education, population registers, regions
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua  Wilde
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Bénédicte  Apouey
Author-Name: Joseph Coleman
Author-Name: Gabriel Picone
Title: The effect of antimalarial campaigns on child mortality and fertility in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract: We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to identify the causal effect of ITNs on mortality and fertility. We show that the ITN distribution campaigns reduced all-cause child mortality, but surprisingly increased total fertility rates in the short run in spite of reduced desire for children and increased contraceptive use. We explain this paradox in two ways. First, we show evidence for an unexpected increase in fecundity and sexual activity due to the better health environment after the ITN distribution. Second, we show evidence that the effect on fertility is positive only temporarily – lasting only 1-3 years after the beginning of the ITN distribution programs – and then becomes negative. Taken together, these results suggest the ITN distribution campaigns may have caused fertility to increase unexpectedly and temporarily, or that these increases may just be a tempo effect -- changes in fertility timing which do not lead to increased completed fertility. 
Length: 61 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-019.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, child mortality, fertility, malaria
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The influence of health in early adulthood on male fertility
Abstract: Despite the large literature examining socioeconomic predictors of fertility and the influence of reproductive history on post-reproductive mortality, previous research has not offered a population-level perspective on how male health in early adulthood is related to subsequent fertility. Using Swedish population registers and military conscription data, we study how body mass index (BMI), physical fitness and height are associated with total fertility and parity transitions by 2012 amongst 405,427 Swedish men born 1965-1972, meaning we observe fertility up to age 40 or older. Applying linear regression as well as sibling fixed effects, we find that our anthropometric measures are strong predictors of later fertility, even after accounting for educational attainment and cumulative income up to age 40. Men with a 'normal' BMI and in the highest decile of physical fitness have the most children by the end of our follow-up period. Men who were already obese at ages 17-20 had a relative probability of childlessness almost twice as high as men who had a 'normal' BMI at ages 17-20, and men in the bottom decile of physical fitness had a relatively probability of childlessness almost 50% higher than men in the top decile of physical fitness. These patterns were at least as strong in our models applying the sibling fixed effects design. We find that the association between male height and fertility is curvilinear in models estimated without sibling fixed effects, but only men in the lowest decile of height have lower fertility in sibling comparison models. Further analyses show that the strong associations between our anthropometric measures and male fertility persist even amongst men who married. We discuss the implications of our findings for fertility in high-income countries in light of secular increases in the prevalence of overweight/obesity. 
Length: 104 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-020.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, anthropometry, body height, body weight, cohort fertility, fertility, health, population registers, siblings
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Neal Marquez
Author-Name: Kiran Garimella
Author-Name: Ott Toomet
Author-Name: Ingmar G. Weber
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Segregation and sentiment: estimating refugee segregation and its effects using digital trace data
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-021.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Marilia R. Nepomuceno
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cássio M. Turra
Title: Assessing the quality of self-reported education in Brazil with intercensal survivorship ratios
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Number: WP-2019-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Brazil, adult mortality, census data, data evaluation, developing countries, education
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: New opportunities for comparative male fertility research: insights from a new data resource based on high-quality birth registers
Abstract: Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. This paper presents analyses based on a new male fertility database providing data on more than 330 million live births. This new resource, made available in the Human Fertility Collection, allows for the first time a comparative perspective on male fertility in high-income countries using high-quality birth register data. Contrasting male and female fertility trends across 17 countries, we show that trends in disparities between male and female period fertility rates are driven to a large degree by the interplay of parental age and cohort size differences. For parental age differences at childbirth, we observe a tendency toward smaller disparities, except in Eastern Europe. This observation fits with expectations based on gender theories. However, variation across countries also seems to be driven by factors other than gender equality.     
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-023.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2019-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Ciganda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nicolas Todd
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The limits to fertility recuperation
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2019
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2019-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2019-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: computational demography, fertility, forecasts
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Analysis of Latin American fertility change in terms of probable social classes
Length: 51 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Chia Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Albert Esteve
Title: Living arrangements across households in Europe
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Enrique Acosta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alain Gagnon
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nadine Ouellette
Author-Name: Robert R. Bourbeau
Author-Name: Marilia R. Nepomuceno
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The boomer penalty: excess mortality among baby boomers in Canada and the United States
Abstract: Studies suggest that, relative to adjacent cohorts, baby boomers in Canada and the United States have experienced a slowdown, or even a deterioration, in mortality improvements. These findings are counterintuitive and surprising since the unprecedented improvements in early-life conditions experienced by baby boomers should have led to declines in morbidity and mortality in later life, as was the case for earlier generations.   The present study explores the mechanisms that could have produced this “excess” mortality among the baby boom cohorts in Canada and in three racial/ethnic groups in the United States. Using micro-level mortality data from vital statistics systems, we analyzed the contributions of the causes of death that are likely driving this cohort’s excess mortality, and their dynamics over time. The analyses were done using demographic decomposition, visual, and statistical methods.   We found evidence of a higher susceptibility of the trailing edge boomers (those born around 1960) to behavioral causes of death: namely, mortality from drugs, alcohol, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis C, COPD, and suicide. Most of these causes contributed to the all-cause mortality disadvantage of baby boomers through sustained cohort effects that followed the cohorts over time. This finding calls into question the assumption that secular improvements in early life conditions lead to a monotonic decline in cohort mortality rates. Instead, there may be important disruptions in the continuous progress in health and mortality, and it is possible that the baby boom generation represents one such disruption. This insight calls for a rethinking of the mechanisms that drive current age-period-cohort mortality patterns. The mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort disadvantage of baby boomers – such as the higher levels of distress and frustration as well as the riskier attitudes toward drug use and sexual practices that are constituent of the boomer generation identity – are addressed and discussed. 
Length: 62 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
Number: WP-2020-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: America, avoidable mortality, cohort analysis, excess mortality, exogenous mortality, mortality trends
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Katherine Keenan
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alice Goisis
Title: Health outcomes of only children across the life course: an investigation using Swedish register data
Abstract: The proportion of only children – children with no full biological siblings – is growing in high-income settings, but we know little about their life course outcomes and how this is related to long-term health. Previous studies of only children have tended to focus on short-term, developmental and intellectual outcomes in early life or adolescence, and provide mixed evidence. Using Swedish population register data on children born between 1940 and 1975, we compare only children with children from multi-child sibling groups, taking into account birth order, family size and half-siblings to account for family complexity. We consider physical health outcomes measured at late adolescence (height, body mass index and physical fitness), and mortality. Only children with and without half-siblings had lower height and fitness scores, were more likely to be overweight or obese, and had higher mortality, than those with 1 or 2 biological siblings. Only children without half-siblings generally did better than only children with half-siblings, suggesting that only children experiencing parental disruption experience additional disadvantages. With the exception of height, the patterns persist after adjustment for parental characteristics and after employing within-family cousin comparison designs. In mortality models, some of the excess risk for only children was explained by adjustment for fertility, marriage and educational history. We discuss the extent to which the patterns we observe are explained by selection processes and contextual differences in the prevalence of one-child sibling groups. 
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
Number: WP-2020-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, adult mortality, body height, body weight, cardiovascular system, only child
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jorge Cimentada
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A new perspective on the international achievement gap: is academic autonomy good for everyone?
Abstract: There is a growing literature and interest on the study of the cognitive achievement gap between the top and bottom SES groups. Amidst public concern for this distancing between social classes, researchers have been unable to find an adequate explanation for the increasing cross-country inequality. In this paper, I argue that we need to refocus our efforts towards understanding better what correlates with the academic performance of both SES groups separately. By shifting attention to the amount of school autonomy that different schools have, I show that school autonomy over academic content, courses and text books is associated with a decrease of test scores of nearly .4 standard deviations for the bottom 10% performers in mathematics and literacy – a whole grade’s worth of knowledge. I show that this relationship holds under several specifications, including fixed effect models. In contrast, the same relationship turns positive when relating to the top 10% of students but it’s much weaker than for the bottom performers. These results point out that perhaps an explanation to the changing gaps is not symmetrical between groups but rather group specific. The importance of understanding what affects separate SES groups is paramount to understanding the achievement gap and these preliminary results can have important implications in policy making as they speak directly to education policy makers trying to fine tune the autonomy measures of their country. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://osf.io/preprints/osf/j25yn_v1
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, education, inequality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Working and disability expectancies at old ages: the role of childhood circumstances and education
Abstract: The ability to work at older ages depends on health and education. Both accumulate starting very early in life. We assess how childhood disadvantages combine with education to affect working and health trajectories. Applying multistate period life tables to data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) for the period 2008-2014, we estimate how the residual life expectancy at age 50 is distributed in number of years of work and disability, by number of childhood disadvantages, gender, and race/ethnicity. Our findings indicate that number of childhood disadvantages is negatively associated with work and positively with disability, irrespective of gender and race/ethnicity. Childhood disadvantages intersect with low education resulting in shorter lives, and redistributing life years from work to disability. Among the highly educated, health and work differences between groups of childhood disadvantage are small. Combining multistate models and inverse probability weighting, we show that the return of high education is greater among the most disadvantaged. 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-006.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, disability, early childhood, education, ethnicity, length of working life, Markov chains
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vitor Miranda
Author-Name: Peter Fallesen
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries
Abstract: With their historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline, and analyse to what extent it is attributable to tempo or to quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births, but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-thirties. Large-scale fertility declines at ages above 30 have not been previously documented in these countries. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from two children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility, below 1.6, and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be updated, and call into question the broader theories linking fertility and gender equality.   Keywords: Nordic fertility regime, period fertility, cohort fertility, fertility timing, forecasting 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-007.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family formation trajectories and migration status in the United States, 1970-2010
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela Vono de Vilhena
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Exclusion through statistical invisibility. An exploration on what can be known through publicly available datasets on irregular migration and the health status of this population in Germany
Abstract: This working paper offers an overview on the availability of data on irregular migration in Germany. Precisely, it critically describes the main data sources available, indicating that it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to conduct an accurate assessment of the dimensions of irregular migration as a social phenomenon in the country, the characteristics and challenges faced by this population, and the extent to which their rights are protected with the data currently available. Second, it further discusses how the lack of data on irregular migrants makes it particularly challenging to monitor specific outcomes, such as their health conditions. The final section of the document provides an overview on future prospects for the study of irregular migration in Germany, underlining the need to develop new data sources that focus on this population. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-009.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, health, health policy, illegal migration, international migration, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do income and marriage mediate the relationship between cognitive ability and fertility? Data from Swedish taxation and conscriptions registers for men born 1951-1967
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests a positive association between fertility and cognitive ability among Swedish men. In this study we use data on 18 birth cohorts of Swedish men to examine whether and how the relationship between cognitive ability and patterns of childbearing are mediated by income, education and marriage histories. We examine whether the expected positive associations between cognitive ability and life course income, can explain this positive association. We also explore the role of marriage for understanding the positive gradient between cognitive ability and fertility. To address these question we use Swedish population administrative data that holds information on fertility histories, detailed taxation records, and data from conscription registers. We also identify siblings in order to adjust for confounding by shared family background factors.  Our results show that while cognitive ability, education, income, marriage, and fertility, are all positively associated with each other, income only explains a part of the observed positive gradient between fertility and cognitive ability. We find that much of the association between cognitive ability and fertility can be explained by marriage, but that a positive association exists among both ever-married and never-married men. Both low income and low cognitive ability are strong predictors of high childlessness and low fertility in our population. The results from the full population persist in the sub-sample of brothers. 
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-010.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, cohort fertility, completed fertility, income, intelligence, marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Léontine Goldzahl
Title: Does retirement affect secondary preventive care use? Evidence from breast cancer screening

Length: 49 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Chia Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: For better or for worse mental health? The role of social networks for exogamous older couples
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-012.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Does postponing retirement affect cognitive function? A counterfactual experiment to disentangle life course risk factors

Abstract: Life-course sociodemographic and behavioral factors affect later-life cognitive function. Some evidence suggests that contemporaneous labor force participation also affects cognitive function; however, it is unclear whether it is employment itself or endogenous factors related to individuals’ likelihood of employment that protects against cognitive decline. We exploit innovations in counterfactual causal inference to disentangle the effect of postponing retirement on later-life cognitive function from the effects of other life-course factors. With the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (1996-2014, n=20,469), we use the parametric g-formula to estimate the population-averaged effect (PAE) of postponing retirement to age 67, the average treatment on the treated (ATT), the moderating effect of gender, education, and occupation, and the mediating effect via depressive symptoms and comorbidities. We find that postponing retirement is protective against cognitive decline, accounting for other life-course factors (age 67 PAE: 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20,0.47; ATT: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.26,0.60). The extent of the protective effect depends on subgroup, with the highest educated experiencing the greatest reduction in cognitive decline (age 67 ATT: 50%, 95% CI: 32%,71%). By using innovative models that better reflect the empirical reality of interconnected life-course processes, this work makes progress in understanding how retirement affects cognitive function. 
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-013.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: America, age at retirement, ageing, labor, length of working life, retirement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mathias Lerch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The emergence and diffusion of birth limitation in urban areas of developing countries
Abstract: The rising heterogeneity of women in terms of family size over the course of the fertilitytransition challenges the classic hypothesis about the diffusion of birth limiting behaviors acrossparities, known as family limitation. We evaluate whether birth limitation diffused sequentiallyfrom upper to lower parities during the onset and unfolding of the urban fertility transition in 27developing countries. Relying on multiple surveys and censuses, we decompose long-termdeclines in cohort fertility into the parity-specific contributions, and propose two new summaryindicators for international comparison. The results challenge the hypothesis of family limitation.We find a significant international variation in the parities at which birth limitation initiallyemerges, in the direction of its subsequent diffusion to other parities, as well as in the extent towhich the limiting behavior is generalized across all parity groups. We finally discuss theinternational heterogeneity in the patterns of emergence and diffusion of birth limitation, anddraw theoretical conclusions and societal implications. 
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Irene Mosca
Title: Does retirement affect voluntary work provision? Evidence from England, Ireland and the U.S.
Abstract: Voluntary work is an important contribution for many non-profit organizations, such as charities, political and religious organizations. Older individuals make up a sizable share of the volunteer workforce, and volunteering is often regarded as an example of “active ageing”. In this study, we examine whether retirement has a causal effect on the frequency of voluntary work provision in three English-speaking countries – England, Ireland and the U.S. We draw on data from the ELSA, TILDA and HRS studies and employ a harmonised approach in the empirical analysis. We use eligibility ages for old age pensions in an instrumental variable estimation to address potential confounding. We find that retirement increases the frequency of voluntary work provision in all three countries, especially among men. This suggests that labour market policies aimed at increasing labour force participation at older ages might have unintended consequences for the size of the volunteer workforce. 
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: England, Ireland, USA, retirement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Riccardo Ciacci
Author-Name: Jorge  García-Hombrados
Author-Name: Ayesha Zainudeen
Title: Mobile phone network and migration: evidence from Myanmar
Abstract: This study explores the effect of the expansion of mobile phone signal on migrationdecisions in Myanmar. The empirical strategy proposed follows Manacorda and Tesei (2019) and Andersen et al. (2011), it uses variation in lightning frequency across spaceas an instrumental variable for the expansion of mobile phone signal. Our results suggest that longer exposure to mobile phone network decreases migration. Specifically, an increase of 1 s.d. in the time exposed to mobile phone signal diminishes the probability of household members to migrate by 17%. We find empirical evidencesuggesting that such findings are driven by the positive effects of access to mobilephone signal on labor market outcomes and on perceived well-being. 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Burma/Myanmar, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Seymour Spilerman
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Birth order pairings and romantic success
Abstract: The possibility that birth order influences romantic compatibility has long intrigued the lay public.  In the absence of empirical research a marital advise literature has emerged, based on the observations of counselors and clinical psychologists, which purports to explain marital success in terms of birth order pairings.  The present paper has two parts.  In the first, using population register data from Sweden, we investigate the propositions about birth order and romantic relationships that are prevalent in the popular literature and show they have little validity.  In the second, we undertake our own analysis which reveals two major birth order impacts: (a) a pronounced only-child effect, in that couples in which either spouse is an only have a divorce rate notably higher than couples in which neither is an only-child; and (b) for males, a protective effect from divorce from marriage with a first-born female, an outcome that does not hold for females in their own pairing choices. 
Length: 49 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, birth order, divorce, siblings
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yen-hsin Alice Cheng
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The unexplored parental age gap in an era of fertility postponement
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/mzp2r/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Yuan Hsiao
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lee Fiorio
Author-Name: Jonathan Wakefield
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Modeling the bias of digital data: an approach to combining digital and survey data to estimate and predict migration trends
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-019.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, computational demography, digital demography, migration, migration measurement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Enrique Acosta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cosmo Strozza
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case-fatality rates using decomposition methods: contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-020.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/vdgwt/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny A. Kluge
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tobias C. Vogt
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Intergenerational transfers within the family and the role for old age survival
Abstract: In this paper, we study the relationship between income and old age survival via the indirect pathway of private transfers. Our analysis focuses on intergenerational transfers in the family as an important, but so far less investigated, link between income and improved old age survival. We use an agent based model to simulate an exchange relationship between two generations in a family and incorporate realistic demographic, economic and time use data for Germany. We ﬁnd that older parents transfer increasing shares of their pensions to their oﬀspring and receive informal care or emotional support in return. This exchange motive is mutually beneﬁcial as younger generations are in greater need for ﬁnancial subsidies and older ones for contact and care. Our inductive approach adds to our understanding how income is spread in the family and how older family members can beneﬁt from an exchange of money for care. 
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-021.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Denys Dukhovnov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joan Ryan
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The impact of demographic change on transfers of care and associated well-being
Abstract: Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the impact of demographic change on long-term, macro-level childcare and adult care transfers, and the associated well-being effects of informal caregiving.   Method: We measure the impact of demographic change on non-monetary care exchanged between different groups by estimating matrices of time transfers by age and sex, and weighting the time flows by self-reported indicators of well-being, for activities related to childcare and adult care. The analysis employs cross-sectional data from the American Time Use Survey 2011-2013, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Disability and Use of Time Module 2013 to produce the estimates of well-being associated with various forms of care.   Results: We show that people have more positive feelings when caring for children than when caring for adults. Although reductions in the country-level care supply are expected to be small relative to demand, future projections indicate a 17.1% decrease in the ratio of time spent caring for children under age 15 relative to time spent caring for the rest of the population by 2050. While this change is expected to produce only a minor increase in the ratio of negative-to-positive feelings associated with caregiving, purely due to population aging, it could have nontrivial deterioration of well-being for some caregivers.   Discussion: Significant reductions in absolute caregiver well-being caused by demographic changes at the population level may reduce workload, productivity, and adversely impact health, if not offset by caregiver-friendly family policies. 
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-022.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, child care, household, time budget
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sophie Lohmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Multi-platform social media use: little evidence of impacts on adult well-being
Abstract: Social media have become a near-ubiquitous part of our lives. The growing concern that their use may alter our well-being has been met with elusive scientific evidence. Existing literature often simplifies social media use as a homogeneous process. In reality, social media use and functions vary widely depending on platform and demographic characteristics of users, and there may be qualitative differences between using few versus many different social media platforms. Using data from the General Social Survey, an underanalyzed data source for this purpose, we characterize intensive social media users and examine how differential platform use impacts well-being. We document substantial heterogeneity in the demography of users and show that intensive users tend to be young, female, more likely to be Black than Hispanic, from high SES backgrounds, from more religious backgrounds, and from families with migration background, compared to both non-users and moderate users. The intensity of social media use seemed largely unrelated to well-being in both unadjusted models and in propensity-score models that adjusted for selection bias and demographic factors. Among middle-aged and older adults, however, intensive social media use may be slightly associated with depressive symptoms. Our findings indicate that although mediums of communication have changed with the advent of social media, these new mediums are not necessarily detrimental to well-being. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/r46nd
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-023.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Lee Fiorio
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Guy J. Abel
Author-Name: Johnathan Hill
Author-Name: Gabriel Pestre
Author-Name: Emmanuel Letouzé
Author-Name: Jixuan Cai
Title: Analyzing the effect of time in migration measurement using geo-referenced digital trace data
Abstract: Geo-referenced digital trace data oﬀer unprecedented ﬂexibility in migration estimation. Due to their high temporal granularity, many diﬀerent migration estimates can be generated from the same dataset by changing the deﬁnition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general framework for converting digital trace data into estimates of migration transitions and for systematically analyzing their variation along quasi-continuous time-scale, analogous to a survival function. From migration theory,we develop two simple hypotheses regarding how we expect our estimated migration transition functions to behave. We then test our hypotheses on simulated data and empirical data from three diﬀerent platforms in two internal migration contexts: geo-tagged Tweets and Gowalla check-ins in the U.S., and cell-phone call detail records in Senegal. Our results demonstrate the need for evaluating the internal consistency of migration estimates derived from digital trace data before using them in substantive research. At the same time, however, common patterns across our three empirical datasets point to an emergent research agenda using digital trace data to study the speciﬁc functional relationship between estimates of migration and time and how this relationship varies by geography and population characteristics. 
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alexander Subbotin
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Samin  Aref
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Brain drain and brain gain in Russia: analyzing international mobility of researchers by discipline using Scopus bibliometric data 1996-2020
Abstract: We study international mobility in academia with a focus on migration of researchers to and from Russia. Using an exhaustive set of over 2.4 million Scopus publications from 1996 to 2020, we analyze the affiliation addresses of more than 659,000 researchers who have published with a Russian affiliation address at some point in their careers. Migration of researchers is observed through the changes in their affiliation addresses which alter the mode country of affiliation over different years. Only 5.2% of these researchers are internationally mobile, but they account for a substantial proportion of citations. Our estimates of net migration rates indicate that while Russia has been a donor country in the late 1990s and early 2000s, it has experienced a relatively balanced circulation of researchers in more recent years. Overall, researchers emigrating from Russia outnumber and outperform researchers immigrating to Russia. Using subject categories of publications, we quantify the impact of migration on each discipline of scholarship. Our analysis shows that Russia has suffered a net loss in most disciplines and more notably in five disciplines of neuroscience, decision sciences, mathematics, biochemistry, and pharmacology. We demonstrate the robustness of our main findings under random exclusion of data and changes in numeric parameters. Our substantive results reveal new aspects of international mobility in academia and its impact on a national science system which speak directly to policy development. Methodologically, our novel approach of handling big data can be adopted as a framework of analysis for studying scholarly migration in other countries. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-025.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03129
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Russian Federation, bibliographies, brain drain, circular migration, computational demography, computational social science, digital demography, information sciences, international migration, labor migration, libraries, library science
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sven Drefahl
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jennifer Caputo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siddartha Aradhya
Title: Is it better to intermarry? Ethnic composition of marriages  and suicide risk among native-born and migrant persons in Sweden
Abstract: Marriage is protective against suicide across populations, including for persons of different ethnicities and immigrant backgrounds. However, the well-being benefits of marriage are contingent upon marital characteristics—such as conflict and quality—that may vary among persons of different migration backgrounds in interaction with the migration background of their spouse. Leveraging Swedish register data, we compare suicide mortality hazard among married persons on the basis of their and their spouse’s migration background. We find that relative to those in a native Swede-Swede union, Swedish men married to female immigrants and immigrant women married to native men are at higher risk of death by suicide, while immigrants of both genders who are married to someone from their birth country have lower suicide mortality risk. The findings support hypotheses about the strains that may be encountered by those who intermarry, as well as the potential selection of individuals into inter- and intra-ethnic marriages. 
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-026.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, immigrants, mental health, mixed marriage, population registers, suicide
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Edith Y. Gutierrez Vazquez
Title: Gendered and stratified family formation trajectories in the context of Latin American migration, 1950 to 2000
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-027.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)
Length: 49 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-028.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/euznw/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alessandra Trimarchi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marika Jalovaara
Title: The power of two: second birth rate differences between couples with homogamous and heterogamous educational pairings
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-029.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Stelter
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: David De la Croix
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leaders and laggards in life expectancy among European scholars from the sixteenth to the early twentieth century
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-030.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Limor Gabay-Egozi
Author-Name: Lloyd Grieger
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: In my brother’s footstep or shadow? Siblings’ compositional characteristics and gender differences in STEM major
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-031.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Enrique Acosta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José M. Aburto
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Altová
Author-Name: Simona Bignami-Van Assche
Author-Name: Didier Breton
Author-Name: Eungang Choi
Author-Name: Jorge Cimentada
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gonzalo De Armas
Author-Name: Emanuele Del Fava
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alicia Delgado
Author-Name: Viorela Diaconu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Donzowa
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Antonia Fröhlich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alain Gagnon
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mariana Garcia Cristómo
Author-Name: Victor M. Garcia-Guerrero
Author-Name: Armando González-Díaz
Author-Name: Irwin Hecker
Author-Name: Dagnon Eric Koba
Author-Name: Marina Kolobova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Chia Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andrea Lozer
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Madalina-Elena Manea
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Muntasir Masum
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ryohei Mogi
Author-Name: Saskia Morwinsky
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ronald Musizvingoza
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marilia R. Nepomuceno
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michelle Nickel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Samuel Oladele
Author-Name: Emmanuel Olamijuwon
Author-Name: Oluwafunke Omodara
Author-Name: Soumaila Ouedraogo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mariana Paredes
Author-Name: Marius Pascariu
Author-Name: Manuel Piriz
Author-Name: Raquel Pollero
Author-Name: Federico Rehermann
Author-Name: Filipe Ribeiro
Author-Name: Silvia Rizzi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francisco Rowe
Author-Name: Isaac Sasson
Author-Name: Jiaxin Shi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rafael Silva-Ramirez
Author-Name: Cosmo Strozza
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Catalina Torres
Author-Name: Sergi Trias-Llimos
Author-Name: Fumiya Uchikoshi
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Paola Vazquez-Castillo
Author-Name: Estevão Vilela
Author-Name: Iván Williams
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Virginia Zarulli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: COVerAGE-DB: a database of age-structured COVID-19 cases and deaths
Abstract: COVerAGE-DB is an open access database including cumulative counts of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and tests by age and sex. Original data and sources are provided alongside data and measures in age-harmonized formats. The database is still in development, and at this writing, it includes 87 countries, and 195 subnational areas. Cumulative counts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and tests are recorded daily (when possible) since January 2020. Many time series thus fully capture the first pandemic wave and the beginning of later waves. An international team, composed of more than 60 researchers, contributed to the collection of data and metadata in COVerAGE-DB from governmental institutions, as well as to the design and implementation of the data processing and validation pipeline. We encourage researchers interested in supporting this project to send a message to the email: coverage-db@demogr.mpg.de   
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-032.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/mpwjq/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, age-sex distribution, data collection, data comparability, epidemics, infectious diseases
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ricky Kanabar
Author-Name: Alexander Plum
Author-Name: Julian Schmied
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: In and out of unemployment - labour market dynamics and the role of testosterone
Abstract: Biological processes have provided new insights into diverging labour market trajectories. In this paper, we use population variation in testosterone levels to explain transition probabilities into and out of unemployment. We follow individual employment histories for 1,771 initially employed and 109 initially unemployed British men from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (“Understanding Society”) between 2009 and 2015. To account for unobserved heterogeneity, we apply dynamic random effect models. We find that individuals with high testosterone levels are more likely to become unemployed, but they are also more likely to exit unemployment. Based on previous studies and descriptive evidence, we argue that these effects are likely driven by personality traits and occupational sorting of men with high testosterone levels. Our findings suggest that latent biological processes can affect job search behaviour and labour market outcomes, without necessarily relating to illness and disability.  
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-033.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: United Kingdom
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua  Wilde
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Wei Chen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sophie Lohmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: COVID-19 and the future of US fertility: what can we learn from Google?
Abstract: We use data from Google Trends to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on future births in the United States.  First, we show that periods of above-normal search volume for Google keywords relating to conception and pregnancy in US states are associated with higher numbers of births in the following months. Excess searches for unemployment keywords have the opposite effect.  Second, by employing simple statistical learning techniques, we demonstrate that including information on keyword search volumes in prediction models significantly improves forecast accuracy over a number of cross-validation criteria. Third, we use data on Google searches during the COVID-19 pandemic to predict changes in aggregate fertility rates in the United States at the state level through February 2021.  Our analysis suggests that between November 2020 and February 2021, monthly US births will drop sharply by approximately 15%.  For context, this would be a 50% larger decline than that following the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and similar in magnitude to the declines following the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919 and the Great Depression.  Finally, we find heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic across different types of mothers.  Women with less than a college education, as well as Black or African American women, are predicted to have larger declines in fertility due to COVID-19.  This finding is consistent with elevated caseloads of COVID-19 in low-income and minority neighborhoods, as well as with evidence suggesting larger economic impacts of the crisis among such households. 
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-034.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: B. Sofia Gil-Clavel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Valeria Bordone
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Close social networks among older adults: the online and offline perspectives
Abstract: Qualitative studies have found that the use of Information and Communication Technologies is related to an enhanced quality of life for older adults, as these technologies might act as a medium to access social capital regardless of distance. In order to quantitatively study the association between older people’s characteristics and the likelihood of having a network of close friends offline and online, we use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and from Facebook. Using a novel approach to analyze aggregated and anonymous Facebook data within a regression framework, we show that the associations between having close friends and age, sex and being a parent are the same offline and online. Migrants who use internet are less likely to have close friends offline, but migrants who are Facebook users are more likely to have close friends online, suggesting that digital relationships may compensate for the potential lack of offline close friendships among older migrants. 
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-035.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, old age, social capital, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nicholas Campisi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Júlia Mikolai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends
Abstract: -Since 2010, some of the Nordic countries have experienced fertility declines down to unprecedented levels. Fertility decline in the Nordic countries was unexpected for most experts, considering that these countries were not heavily affected by the 2008 economic recession which was related to fertility declines in other European countries. Researchers have sought to understand why fertility is declining in these countries but have so far paid little attention to the spatial dimension of this process, despite evidence of large spatial variation of fertility. This paper contributes new understanding to the role of space in Nordic fertility changa and how the uncertainty perspective is related to spatial patterns of fertility. We apply advanced spatial panel models to data covering 1,099 municipalities in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden to separate out spatial variation and temporal variation. Our models use both economic (employment, income) and social (partnership dissolution, voting) measures of uncertainty to explore how uncertainty is related to fertility. Results show that fertility levels and trends by age vary substantially by level of urbanization. Differences in uncertainty by age appear essential to spatial variation – while social contexts are related to variation at all ages, economic measures are more related to fertility under age thirty than over age thirty. In addition, stability in fertility over age thirty seems to be an important buffer for the overall rate of total fertility decline, especially in rural municipalities. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-036.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Carl Mason
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The “Sandwich Generation” revisited: global demographic drivers of care time demands
Abstract: Generational overlap affects the care time demands on parents and grandparents worldwide. Here, we present the first global estimates of the experience of simultaneously having frail older parents and young children (“sandwichness”) or young grandchildren (“grandsandwichness”) for the 1970-2040 cohorts using demographic methods and microsimulations.  We find that sandwichness is more prevalent in the Global South – e.g., almost twice as prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa as it is in Europe for the 1970 cohort – but is expected to decline globally by one-third between 1970 and 2040.  The Global North might have reached a peak in the simultaneous care time demands from multiple generations but the duration of the grandsandwich state will increase by up to one year in Africa and Asia. This increasing generational overlap implies more care time demands over the entire adult life course but also opens up the opportunity for the full potential of grandparenthood to materialize. 
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-037.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, demographic ageing, dependency, developing countries, generations, microsimulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ken R.  Smith
Title: The effects of birth spacing on health and socioeconomic outcomes across the life course: evidence from the Utah Population Database
Abstract: The relationship between the length of birth intervals and child outcomes has received increased attention in recent years, but few studies have examined offspring outcomes across the life course in North America. In this study we examine the relationship between birth intervals and a range of short- and long-term outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight, infant mortality, college graduation, occupational attainment, and adult mortality, using data from the Utah Population Database (UPDB). To study infant outcomes we use data on cohorts born 1947--2016, to study educational and occupational outcomes we use data on cohorts born 1950--1980, and to study adult mortality we use data on cohorts born 1900--1949, with mortality outcomes followed until 2016. We use linear regression, linear probability models, and survival analysis, and compare the results from models with and without sibling comparisons. Children born after a birth interval of 9-12 months have a higher probability of low birth weight, preterm birth, and infant mortality both with and without sibling comparisons; longer intervals are further protective, but to a much less dramatic extent, and the protective effect of longer intervals against low birth weight and preterm birth was clearer in cohorts born before the 1990s. Based upon sibling comparison analyses, even the very shortest birth intervals do not negatively influence educational or occupational outcomes, nor long-term mortality. These findings suggest that extremely short birth intervals can increase the probability of poor perinatal outcomes, but that any such disadvantages disappear over the extended life course 
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2020
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2020-038.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2020-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Utah, adult mortality, birth intervals, education, infant mortality, socio-economic status
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Iván Williams
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Mortality change and its impact on child survival
Abstract: Background   The Goodman-Keyfitz-Pullum Kinship Equations estimate offspring survival for women in populations with stable levels of mortality and fertility. A separate body of literature has focused on the effects of mortality change on life expectancy. Combining these two approaches allows us to consider the effects of mortality change on offspring survival.   Results   The effect of an all-age mortality increase on child survival is indirectly proportional to the mean age of an average woman's surviving children. Equivalently, the effect is indirectly proportional to the mean time that a woman has spent with her surviving offspring. Generalizing for an age-specific mortality change follows life expectancy treatment.   Contributions   We bring together two separate traditions in mathematical demography to provide an intuitive understanding of the consequences of mortality change for offspring survival and women's lived experience of child loss. This conceptual framework can be used, for example, to study maternal bereavement in the context of a sustained mortality decline or a sudden mortality crisis. 
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://github.com/IvanWilli/ChildSurv
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, kinship, maternal and child health, mathematical demography, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards
Abstract: Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison to their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes, like state occupation times, under assumptions that posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow only a very limited set of choices about transition timing. We propose to utilize Markov chains with rewards as an intuitive and general way of modelling the timing of transitions. Combining existing discrete-time models with the rewards methodology results in an estimation strategy that features easy parameter estimation, flexible transition timing, and little theoretical overhead. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards- based multistate life tables with SHARE data for the estimation of working life expectancy using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that, for the single-state case, the rewards-based multistate life tables match traditional life table methods exactly. We provide code to replicate all results of the paper, as well as R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed. 
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/68tkb/?view_only=a444d38ce94249a99be9d86e5dae9de6
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The demographic drivers of grief and memory after genocide in Guatemala
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-003.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/S5TAJ
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Guatemala, demographic analysis, excess mortality, genocide, kinship, war
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ilya Klimkin
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Calculation of week-specific age-standardized death rates from STMF data on mortality by broad age intervals
Abstract: The Short-Term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF) data series provides an opportunity for analysis of intra-annual excess mortality, in particular, human losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the STMF has a limitation caused by the nature of the collected original weekly death counts. In many countries, weekly death counts are available only by broad age groups or/and are too small and shaky. Moreover, the original age scales somewhat vary by country. Thus, the STMF data file presents weekly deaths and death rates by broad age intervals. This simplifies the usage of the STMF and helps to conduct analyses but limits the comparability of results across countries and time. The comparisons may be biased due to differences between the population age composition. This study addresses the problem by providing a method for the estimation of week-specific standardized death rates (SDRs) that combines the aggregated weekly mortality data with detailed annual data on mortality and population. This allows deriving annual transition coefficients for the transformation of crude death rates into SDRs. We show that the derived SDRs approximate well exact SDRs across time and countries. 
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-004.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Care or self-care? The impact of informal care provision on health behaviour
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: André Grow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela Perrotta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emanuele Del Fava
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jorge Cimentada
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco Rampazzo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: B. Sofia Gil-Clavel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: René D. Flores
Author-Name: Ilana Ventura
Author-Name: Ingmar G. Weber
Title: How reliable is Facebook’s advertising data for use in social science research? Insights from a cross-national online survey
Abstract: Social scientists increasingly use Facebook’s advertising platform for research, either in the form of conducting digital censuses of the general population, or for recruiting participants for survey research. Both approaches depend on the reliability of the data that Facebook provides about its users, but little is known about how reliable these data are. We address this gap in a large-scale, cross-national online survey (N = 137,224), in which we compare self-reported and Facebook-classified demographic information (sex, age, and region of residence). Our results suggest that Facebook’s advertising platform can be fruitfully used for conducing social science research if additional steps are taken to assess the reliability of the characteristics under consideration.   
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-006.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, digital demography, population censuses, social network, surveys
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Luis A. Serratos-Sotelo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Lasting effects of parental death during childhood: evidence from Sweden
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-007.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?
Abstract: In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.   Keywords: first births, union formation, union dissolution, Finland, incidence-based multistate model, counterfactual approach 
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ewa Batyra
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Income inequality and increasing dispersion of the transition to first birth in the Global South
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-009.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kateryna Savelieva
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Venla Berg
Author-Name: Anneli Miettinen
Author-Name: Anna Rotkirch
Author-Name: Markus Jokela
Title: Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-010.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ewa Batyra
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tiziana Leone
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil
Abstract: The Brazilian period fertility rate (PTFR) dropped from six to 1.8 between 1950 and 2010. Due to the shifts in the timing of fertility, the PTFR might be providing a misleading picture of fertility levels. Moreover, the national average hides important educational differences, as in 2010, the PTFR was 2.3 among the lower educated, whereas it had fallen to 1.5 among the higher educated. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) – a measure that is free from tempo distortions – and for the educational differences in completed fertility have not been previously studied. Due to the scarcity of time series of fertility rates, the application of CTFR forecasting methods outside of high-income countries (HICs) has been rare, and has been largely limited to population-level analysis. We use four Brazilian censuses to forecast the CTFR for the total population and by educational level using rates reconstructed with indirect techniques. The results of four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is likely to decline to 2.1 for the 1980 cohort, and to 1.9 for the 1984 cohort. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to remain stark – at between 0.7 and 0.9 depending on the cohort and the method – and to be larger than they are in HICs with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted, including by educational level, in settings with limited data. Finally, we call for more research on the educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Brazil, census data, cohort fertility, education, forecasts
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Body mass index during early adulthood and first births: racial/ethnic and sex differences in the US NLSY79 cohort
Abstract: Growing evidence indicates lifetime fertility is predicted by health conditions during early adulthood such as body mass index (“early BMI”). Less is known if the early BMI to fertility pathway differs by race/ethnicity, a major axis along which disparities in both health and fertility develop. We examined, within each sex, how the deviations of early BMI from healthy range relate to first birth timing and lifetime childlessness in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites of the US NLSY79 cohort. Obesity was consistently associated with higher childlessness across race/ethnic groups in both sexes, but only in women, its implication in delaying first births manifested after early adulthood. The overall higher childlessness among underweight women was largely driven in Blacks, whereas the lower childlessness among underweight men was detectable in Blacks and Whites. Our findings on the intersectionality of race/ethnicity and sex in the BMI-childlessness pathways encourage more research on the underlying mechanisms.   Keywords: body mass index (BMI), childlessness, first birth, age at first birth, race/ethnicity, Blacks; Hispanics; Whites; United States, NLSY79 
Length: 51 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2128396
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, body weight, completed fertility, desired family size, ethnicity, health, marital union, races, sex differentials
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: North and South: naming practices and the hidden dimension of global disparities in knowledge production
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Karen van Hedel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heta Moustgaard
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Work-family typologies and mental health among women in early working ages
Abstract: Better mental health is observed among women with a partner, children, or employment as compared with women without a partner, children, or employment, respectively. Moreover, women who fulfill all three roles are generally healthier than those with fewer roles. Because of significant changes in work-family life constellations over age, understanding these health differentials requires a life course approach. We linked work-family trajectories to mental health in mid-life for Finnish women using longitudinal registry data. Panel data from an 11% random sample of the population residing in Finland in any year between 1987 and 2007 and followed up until 2013 were used. Work-family combinations were based on partnership status, motherhood status, and employment status. Purchases of prescribed psychotropic medication were used as a measure of mental health. We used sequence analysis to identify 7 distinct groups of women based on their work-family trajectories between ages 20 to 42 years. The associations of typologies of trajectories with mental health at age 43 years were estimated with logistic regression models. Compared to employed mothers with a partner, all other women were more likely to have purchased any psychotropic medication at age 43; especially women without a partner, children or employment and lone mothers had worse mental health. These disadvantages remained after controlling for psychotropic medication purchases earlier in life (to account for potential health selection). Adjusting for age at motherhood did not contribute to the better mental health of employed mothers with a partner. Women combining partnership, motherhood, and employment during early working ages had better mental health later in life than women with other work-family trajectories even after adjusting for mental health earlier in life. Interventions to improve the mental health of women living alone in mid-life, including lone mothers, and individuals without employment, may be needed.   Keywords: Work-family life; Mental health; Finland; Life course approach; Sequence analysis; Psychotropic medication use 
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Ciganda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Title: Changes in the educational gradient of fertility not driven by changes in preferences
Abstract: Fertility levels have historically been negatively correlated with the amount of information and material resources available to individuals and families. The recent reversal of this trend has been interpreted as a fundamental change in preferences, a return to large families led by more educated individuals. Our analysis shows, however, that the recently documented changes in fertility can be reproduced in the context of declining family size preferences across educational levels, and without assuming any transformation of the underlying behavioral mechanisms that link resources and fertility across cohorts. We demonstrate this point by replicating the stylized facts reported in previous studies using a simulated dataset. We generate this dataset from a model that assumes continuity in the way education shapes reproductive intentions over time. In our simulated population, the reversal in the relationship between education and fertility emerges as a result of the transition from a natural to a regulated fertility regime, as the share of unplanned births decreases over time, and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with \textit{desired} fertility become dominant. We conclude, thus, that the explanation for the weakening educational gradient of fertility lies primarily in the decline of unintended fertility, instead of in changes in fertility preferences.  
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2319031
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Gueltzow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The contribution of health behaviors to depression risk across birth cohorts
Abstract: Background: More recent birth cohorts are at a higher depression risk than cohorts born in the early twentieth century. We aimed to investigate to what extent changes in alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity and obesity, contribute to these birth cohort variations.   Methods: We analyzed panel data from US adults born 1916-1966 enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (N=163,760 person-years). We performed a counterfactual decomposition analysis by combining age-period-cohort models with g-computation. This allowed us to compare the predicted probability of elevated depressive symptoms (CES-D 8 score ≥3) in the natural course to a counterfactual scenario where all birth cohorts had the health behavior of the 1945 birth cohort. We stratified analyses by sex and race/ethnicity.   Results: Depression risk of the 1916-1949 and 1950-1966 birth cohort would be on average 2% (-2.3 to -1.7) and 0.5% (-0.9 to -0.1) higher had they had the alcohol consumption levels of the 1945 cohort. In the counterfactual with the 1945 BMI distribution, depression risk is on average 2.1% (1.8 to 2.4) higher for the 1916-1940 cohorts and 1.8% (-2.2 to -1.5) lower for the 1950-1966 cohorts. We find no cohort variations in depression risk for smoking and physical activity. The contribution of alcohol is more pronounced for Whites than for other race/ethnicity groups, and the contribution of BMI more pronounced for women than for men.   Conclusion: Increased obesity levels exacerbated depression risk in recent birth cohorts in the US, while drinking patterns only played a minor role. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.06.21264610v1%20
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, behavior, cohort analysis, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elke Loichinger
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Harun Sulak
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide
Abstract: The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/eb2qs/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julieta Bengochea Soria
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emanuele Del Fava
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Victoria Prieto Rosas
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leveraging census data to study migration flows in Latin America and the Caribbean: an assessment of the available data sources
Abstract: Although the scarcity of accurate and accessible data on international migration flows typically prevents a full understanding of migratory patterns, this might not be the case for Latin America, where high-quality census data on migrant flows is publicly available through the project International Migration in Latina America (IMILA). However, such data has mostly been used for research at the regional level because of the fragmented nature of their availability and the lack of English documentation. To tackle this issue, we consolidated data from the IMILA collection to provide a harmonized dataset with five-year flows by country of birth, sex, and age group, for 19 countries of destination and five census waves. Moreover, comparing IMILA to other two available data sources on flows to Latin America, we showed that IMILA provides a more accurate assessment of migration flows from North America and Europe, enables a better quantification of minor migration flows, and enhances the visibility of female migration. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://osf.io/f75tn/?view_only=d552b113ea8a4a3a856ad797608d15f2
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, census data, data collection, data comparability, international migration, migration flow
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Niina  Metsä-Simola
Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj
Author-Name: Hanna M. Remes
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Support from grandparents and mothers’ depression around the time of separation
Abstract: Objective. This study examined mothers’ depression trajectories around the time of separation by potential availability of support from their youngest child’s grandparents. Background. Separation and single motherhood are both associated with an increased risk of depression. Grandparents are often the most important source of support to families with children, and their support may moderate separating mothers’ depression trajectories. Method. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on 118,006 separating mothers whose youngest child was age 12 or less, we examined the mothers’ depression trajectories, based on antidepressant use 4 years before and 4 years after separation. The trajectories were examined by grandparental characteristics – age, employment, health, geographical distance to the mother, and union stability – using logistic panel regression. Results. Grandparent’s availability for providing support, as proxied by younger age, employment, and lack of severe health problems all predicted a lower probability of maternal depression both before and after separation. The level of depression was also lower if grandparents lived close to the mother, and if the maternal grandparents’ union was intact. Overall, the maternal grandmothers appeared to matter the most. Conclusion. The availability of support from grandparents may partially compensate for the resource losses related to separation, and it is associated with lower maternal depression both before and after separation.   Keywords. Separation, depression, mothers, grandparents, social support 
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-020.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jonas Wood
Author-Name: Leen Marynissen
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peter Fallesen
Author-Name: Karel Neels
Author-Name: Alessandra Trimarchi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Ruben Van Gaalen
Author-Name: Martin Kolk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Regional variation in women’s education-fertility nexus in Northern and Western Europe
Abstract: The relationship between female education and fertility is a long-standing topic in demography, our understanding of which continues to develop. Since the turn of the century, a growing body of research has documented cross-national variation in the female educational gradient in fertility, with mostly positive gradients in Western and Northern European countries. However, such national gradients may mask important variation in the educational gradient in fertility at the subnational level. This study is among the first to use large-scale individual-level administrative data to study regional educational gradients in parity-specific fertility in Northern and Western European countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Adopting hazard models and model-based Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios, our results highlight considerable subnational regional variation in the educational gradient in first, second and third births. We conclude that, in addition to variation between countries, substantial within-country regional variation deserves to receive future scholarly attention. The documentation of regional variation in the female education-fertility nexus is a substantial extension of cross-national comparisons and contributes to the empirical and theoretical debate on the context-contingencies of the education-fertility nexus. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-021.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, education, fertility, population registers, regional demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Benson John
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Stalls and reversals in age at first marriage in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of female education expansion
Abstract: Age at first marriage stalled in some sub-Saharan African (SSA) regions despite female education expansion. However, a systematic investigation of this paradox concerning where, over which birth cohorts, at what ages and why such stalls occurred is lacking. This paper analyzes these dimensions among women born 1945-1999 in four broad SSA regions (West, Central, East and Southern Africa) and 33 countries using Demographic Health Survey data. Findings reveal that median age at first marriage (MAFM) at the population level stalled in 12 countries and reversed in nine countries. At the regional level, MAFM stalled in Central and East Africa and reversed in Southern Africa. The stalls and reversals dominated the 1965-69 – 1985-89 birth cohorts and occurred at MAFM between 15.6-31.1. In some regions, stalls or reversals emerged because female education expansion dominated primary education, while in others, they emerged because age at marriage within specific education groups stalled or reversed. However, the pace of progress for girls’ participation in secondary schooling was the most essential condition for stalls or reversals to emerge at the population level. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy/programs aiming at eradicating early marriages in SSA. 
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
Number: WP-2021-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, age at marriage, cohort analysis, education of women
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Enrique Acosta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: U.S. racial/ethnic mortality gap adjusted for population structure
Abstract: Background: Racial mortality disparities in the U.S. are well-documented and central to the debate on social inequalities in health. We argue that standard measures that are used to describe the disparities, such as life expectancy or years of life lost, underestimate those disparities.   Methods: We analyze contemporary U.S. mortality disparities comparing Blacks and Hispanics to Whites using CDC and NCHS data. We estimate mortality disparities using standard metrics and a novel approach that weights mortality inequalities by the population fraction that is exposed to the inequalities. We then express the magnitude of these inequalities by comparing them to the loss of life due to leading causes of death.   Results: Based on the exposure-adjusted measure, the Black mortality disadvantage is as deadly or deadlier than circulatory diseases, the top cause of death in the U.S; and 43% (men) and 87% (women) larger than the disadvantage as measured by life expectancy. For Hispanics, the exposure-adjusted mortality advantage over Whites is over two times larger, for both men and women, than what life expectancy disparities would imply, and 21% (men) and 11% (women) larger than when measured using standard years of life lost.   Conclusions: Mortality inequalities experienced by real populations can differ markedly from the inequalities that are calculated for synthetic populations that are used in standard calculations. We show that racial/ethnic disparities in the U.S. are underestimated if not adjusted for the populations experiencing the inequalities. For health policy the exposure-adjusted inequalities are likely to provide a more reasonable signal on where to allocate scarce resources.      
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-023.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/hj8g3/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, age distribution, differential mortality, racial discrimination, risk exposure
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Christina Bohk-Ewald
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Enrique Acosta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Magnitude, global variation, and temporal development of the COVID-19 infection fatality burden
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2021
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2021-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://github.com/christina-bohk-ewald/assess-total-infection-fatality-burden-of-COVID-19
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2021-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Shubhankar Sharma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Disparities in the population burden of joint cognitive and physical impairment in the US, 1998-2016
Abstract: Although cognitive and physical impairments often co-occur in older individuals, they are typically studied as separate outcomes. Using the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2016) and multistate models, we quantify the population burden of their co-occurrence (joint impairment) using two key indicators- lifetime risk and expectancy, by gender, race/ethnicity/nativity, education and their interactions for Americans aged 50 and over. Furthermore, we analyze what fraction of the racial/ethnic inequalities in joint impairment is attributable to inequalities in educational attainment. Results reveal that 58% of women and 42% of men aged 50 are predicted to experience joint impairment in their remaining life expectancy. Women also live longer in joint impairment than men (3.4 vs 1.9 years). Foreign-born Latinas have 83% lifetime risk compared with Whites’ 52% and three times more jointly impaired years. Lower educated men experience 32 percentage points higher lifetime risk and three times more joint impairment years than higher educated men. The lowest educated Blacks and Latinx carry the greatest joint impairment burden. This study emphasizes the importance of considering cognitive and physical impairment simultaneously in assessing older-age disability. The finding that up to 74% of the racial/ethnic disparities are attributable to inequalities in educational attainment can inform policy. 
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Domestic migration and family formation and dissolution trajectories in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1950-2000
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Edith Y. Gutierrez Vazquez
Author-Name: Tereza Bernardes
Title: Power relations and persistent low fertility among domestic workers in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
Number: WP-2022-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Chia Liu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ewa Batyra
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A gender story of social disengagement in Latin America
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-004.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Chong
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Monica J. Alexander
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Correcting historical mortality rate bias in big crowd-sourced online genealogies
Length: 73 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, USA, bias, genealogy, mortality, statistics
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The prospective power of personality for childbearing: a longitudinal study based on data from Germany
Length: 55 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-006.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniela Perrotta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sarah C. Johnson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tom Theile
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: André Grow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Helga A. G. de Valk
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Openness to migrate internationally for a job: evidence from LinkedIn data in Europe
Length: 10 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-007.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ansgar Hudde
Title: Countries embracing maternal employment opened schools sooner after Covid-19 lockdowns
Abstract: The Covid-19-pandemic-related closure of schools has affected the majority of the world’s students and remains a contentious issue. Using data from the UNESCO school database, the ISSP 2012, and country-level panel regressions, we leverage simultaneous school closures during the first wave of Covid-19 lockdowns to estimate the effect of gender ideology on school reopening schedules. We show that societal gender ideology has likely influenced school reopening policies: i.e., that societies with more supportive attitudes toward maternal employment reopened schools significantly sooner, and at higher intensities, than societies with less supportive attitudes toward maternal employment, relative to other reopening measures, and net of infection rates. Our findings suggest a causal effect of gender ideological beliefs regarding pandemic-related school closure policies. We test and exclude a variety of potential confounders, such as a country’s maternal employment rate, GDP, social spending, and cultural values toward children. We argue that school closures may be perceived as less problematic in countries where more people support the ideal of a stay-at-home mother. Gender attitudes may thus represent a set of ideas that affect policy-makers’ decision-making via gender ideology normative framing or a potential gender ideology bias. However, the specific underlying mechanisms through which the gender ideology effect operates at the policy-maker level remain untested in our study, and should be investigated by future research. 
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leadership skills and family formation among males. A study based on Swedish register data
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
Number: WP-2022-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Benson John
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Indirect estimation of the timing of first union dissolution with incomplete marriage histories
Abstract: Lack of nationally representative data with detailed marriage histories in developing countries impedes comprehensive understanding of essential aspects of union dissolution in these countries – for example, the timing of first union dissolution. This research note proposes a method, denoted as 'Indirect Life Table of first Union Dissolution' (ILTUD), for estimating quantum adjusted measures of the timing of first union dissolution from incomplete marriage histories. ILTUD estimates a survival function of first union from a simple tabulation of ever-married women by duration since first union, classified by union dissolution status (intact vs dissolved first union). It then uses the relationships between life table functions to generate the distribution of marriages ending each year (θ(t)) for a given marriage cohort. Using the distribution of θ(t), ILTUD generates quantum adjusted first union survival rates from which the percentiles of first union dissolution are calculated. ILTUD estimates are consistent with estimates produced using traditional statistical methods such as the Kaplan Meier estimator. In addition, ILTUD is simple to implement and has simple data requirements – available in most nationally representative surveys, e.g. the Demographic Health Surveys. Thus, ILTUD presents an opportunity for broadening our understanding of union dissolution dynamics in developing countries. 
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: life tables, marriage duration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: B. Sofia Gil-Clavel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: André Grow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Analyzing EU-15 immigrants’ language acquisition using Twitter data
Abstract: The increasingly complex and heterogeneous immigrant communities settling in Europe have led European countries to adopt civic-integration measures. Among these, measures that aim to facilitate language acquisition are often considered crucial for integration and cooperation between immigrants and natives. Simultaneously, the rapid expansion of the use of online social networks is believed to change the factors that affect immigrants’ language acquisition. However, so far, few studies have analyzed whether this is the case. This article uses a novel longitudinal data source derived from Twitter to: (1) analyze differences between destination-countries in the pace of immigrants’ language acquisition depending on the citizenship and civic-integration policies of those countries; and (2) study how the relative size of migrant groups in the destination-country, and the linguistic and geographical distance between origin- and destination countries, are associated with language acquisition. We focus on immigrants whose destination countries were in the EU-15 between 2012 and 2016. We study time until a user mostly tweets in the language of the destination-country for one month as a proxy of language acquisition using survival analysis. Results show that immigrants who live in countries with strict requirements for immigrants’ language acquisition and low levels of liberal citizenship policies have the highest median times of language acquisition. Furthermore, on social media such as Twitter, language acquisition is associated with classic explanatory variables, such as size of the immigrant group in the destination country, linguistic distance between origin- and destination-language, and geographical distance between origin- and destination-country. 
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-012.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/fbq68/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: European Union, computational social science, culture, immigration policy, international migration, languages
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dalton Conley
Title: The influence of cousin order and cousin group size on educational outcomes
Abstract: Despite growing interest in the potential influence of grandparents on grandchild status attainment, research has not addressed whether the ordinal position or number of grandchildren affects outcomes. We apply sibling- and cousin-fixed effects analyses to Swedish population data to examine how cousin order and cousin group size influence grade point average (GPA) percentile rank at the end of compulsory school. We study cohorts born 1972-2003 (N=1,591,979). In cousin fixed effects analyses, second-born, fifth-born, and tenth or later born maternal cousins achieve GPA ranked scores 1.04, 2.17, and 4.97 percentile points lower than first-born cousins, respectively. Amongst paternal cousins the differences relative to the first-born cousin are 0.02, 0.46, and 1.86 percentile points lower, respectively—suggesting the greater influence of the mother’s extended family. In further analyses we examine whether an arguably exogenous shock to cousin group size, a twin birth to an aunt or uncle, has any impact on GPA percentile rank. Instrumental variable analyses indicate that an increase in maternal cousin group size has a statistically significant negative effect on GPA rank, lowering GPA rank in percentile points by 0.27, but an increase in paternal cousin group size does not negatively affect GPA rank. 
Length: 79 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
Number: WP-2022-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Sweden, birth order, education, extended family, family size
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jorge  García-Hombrados
Author-Name: Berkay Ozcan
Title: Age at marriage and marital stability: evidence from China
Abstract: Many studies showed that marrying younger is associated with a higher risk of divorce. We investigate the causal effect of marrying at an earlier age on women’s divorce risk. We exploit the introduction of the 1981 reform in China, which facilitated legal marriage for urban women younger than 25 years old, using the Chinese Census data. We show that the reform generated a kink in the mean age at marriage for women, which we use in a fuzzy regression kink design (RKD) to assess the causal effect of marrying younger on the probability of divorce. First, we conﬁrm in our data the existence of a negative (in fact, a U-shaped) association between age at marriage and divorce, as commonly observed in previous studies from the USA. Then, we show that this association disappears in our analyses based on RKD. This ﬁnding suggests that the well-documented association between early marriage and divorce is in fact attributable to unobservable factors driving both marriage timing and the likelihood of divorce. We discuss the implications. Keywords: Age at marriage, divorce, legal age of marriage, China. JEL codes: J12. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: China, age at marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jiaxin Shi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christiaan Monden
Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Inequalities in retirement lifespan in the United States
Abstract: Objectives  Persistent and substantial disparities in old-age mortality suggest that there may be great inequalities in the length of retirement life. This study aims to assess gender and educational differences in the average retirement lifespan and the variation in retirement lifespan, taking into account individual labor-force exit and re-entry dynamics.    Methods  We used longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study in 1996–2016, focusing on respondents aged 50 and above (N = 32,228). Multistate life tables were estimated using discrete-time event history models. The average retirement lifespan, as well as absolute and relative inequalities in retirement lifespan, were calculated analytically.    Results  We found that among women there was a persistent educational gradient in average retirement lifespan over the whole period studied; among men, the relationship between education and retirement expectancy was different across periods. Women and the lower-educated had higher absolute inequality in retirement lifespan than men and the higher-educated—yet these relationships were reversed when examined by relative inequality.    Discussion  Our multistate approach provides an accurate and comprehensive picture of the retirement lifespan of older Americans in the past two decades. Such findings should be considered in high-level discussions on Social Security. Potential reforms such as raising the eligibility age or cutting benefits may have unexpected implications for different social groups due to their differential impacts on retirement initiation and re-entry dynamics.   
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, age at retirement, inequality, life expectancy, mortality, multi-state life tables, retirement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: When do parents bury a child? Quantifying uncertainty in the parental age at offspring loss
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Benson John
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Marital life courses in sub-Saharan Africa: all cause union dissolution, its timing, and time spent outside marriage
Abstract: Not only whether but also when a union ends and how long individuals remain unpartnered subsequently is consequential for social and demographic outcomes. However, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), information about the timing of union dissolution and the reproductive time ‘lost’ due to union dissolution is unknown. We close this gap by applying novel and standard indirect demographic techniques to Demographic Health Survey data collected in 34 SSA countries to document the level and timing of all-cause union dissolution and the time women spend outside of marriage due to union dissolution. Results revealed that in 28/34 countries, over one-fifth of first unions end within 15 years, and in 14/34 countries, the proportion of first unions ending within 25 years exceeds 40%. The average marital duration at first union dissolution varies between 4.8 and 9.4 years. The pace of remarriage is rapid across all countries, with the average duration between first union dissolution and first remarriage ranging between 0.2 and 2.9 years. The overall reproductive years lost to union dissolution varies between 1.3 and 5.3 years, and it accounts for 4.0% to 16.3% of the total reproductive life expectancy. We discuss the implications of these dynamics for fertility outcomes in SSA. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, cohort fertility, dissolution of marriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peng Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: At the intersection of adverse life course pathways: the effects on health by nativity
Abstract: Adverse life events are major causes of declining health and well-being, but the effects are not the same across subpopulations. We analyze how the intersection of nativity and two main adverse life events, job loss and divorce, affect individual health and well-being trajectories. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2017), we apply descriptive techniques and individual fixed-effects regressions to analyze how job loss and divorce influence health. Our results support the hypothesis of the intersectional effects of disadvantage and adversities on health and well-being, with immigrants suffering more from adverse life events than natives in both the short and the long run. Compared to natives, immigrants have a health advantage at younger ages, which turns into a disadvantage at older ages. The observed health declines are particularly steep among immigrants who experienced adverse life events. These results help to explain the vanishing health advantage of immigrants by showing that they are exposed to a double disadvantage over the life course: i.e., immigrants are more likely than natives to suffer from adverse life events, and such events typically have a larger impact on the health of immigrants than of natives. Our findings are the first to provide evidence on the effects of different adverse life events intersecting with each other and with nativity. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of intersectional analyses in research on immigrant health. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, health, inequality, migrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Asli Ebru Şanlitürk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Samin  Aref
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Homecoming after Brexit: evidence on academic migration from bibliometric data
Length: 52 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-019.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Emotion and fertility in times of disaster: conceptualizing fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-020.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Johanna Tassot
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francesco Iacoella
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The effect of fertility timing on women’s earnings at midlife in the UK
Abstract: An extensive body of research shows that motherhood has substantial impacts on women’s earnings, but there is less evidence on the effect of the timing of motherhood, particularly in the long term and from contexts other than the US. This study analyses data from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) to examine whether the timing of motherhood affects women’s midlife earnings, as well as the role of potential mediators (tertiary education, years in paid work, and number of children). We make use of the occurrence and timing of biological fertility shocks as a source of exogenous variation in the age at first birth. We find evidence for that avoidance of early motherhood may have a positive effect on women’s earnings in midlife in the UK. This effect is likely to be mediated by years in paid work and number of children. These findings call for policies that support early mothers’ employment careers. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-021.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: United Kingdom, contraception, education, female employment, fertility, income, labor market
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019
Abstract: Fertility declined sharply and unexpectedly in Finland in the 2010s. Using detailed Finnish register data, we calculated total fertility rates (TFRs) and the proportion of women expected to have a first birth (TFRp1) in 2010–2019 for 153 fields of education and estimated how the characteristics of each field predicted its fertility decline. As educational field predicts factors related to economic uncertainty, heterogeneity in fertility decline across fields could shed light on the role of economic uncertainty behind the recent fertility decline.  In general, women with the highest initial fertility levels (health, welfare, and education) and women in agriculture experienced weaker fertility declines (around -20% or less), while women with the lowest initial fertility levels (ICT, arts and humanities) experienced stronger fertility declines (around -40% or more). The extent of the fertility decline increased with higher unemployment and lower income levels of the field, and with a lower share employed in the public sector. These uncertainty measures together explained one-fourth of the decline in TFR and two-fifths of the decline in first births. The results imply that groups characterized by stable job prospects escaped very strong fertility declines and that objective economic uncertainty fueled the fertility decline in Finland.
Length: 52 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-022.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, fertility decline
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia A. Lam
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katherine Keenan
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socioeconomic status, and gender in South Africa
Abstract: The burden of multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how many years someone is expected to live with multimorbidity, and how it varies by social and economic factors particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate this in South Africa, where its apartheid history further complicates the roles of race, socioeconomic, and gender inequalities in society. This underlines the importance of taking an intersectional perspective when trying to understand the interplay of these factors and how they influence health and mortality. We introduce the term ‘multimorbid life expectancy’ to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using an incidence-based multistate Markov modeling approach, we find that females had higher multimorbid life expectancy than males (17.7 years vs 9.9 years), and this disparity was consistent across all race and education groups. Asian/Indians and the post-secondary educated had the highest multimorbid life expectancy relative to other groups. White males seemed to benefit the most from having more education, while African males and females seemed to benefit the least. This suggests associations between structural inequalities and multimorbid life expectancy, highlighting the need for health system and educational policy changes that are proportionate to each group’s level of need. 
Length: 90 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: South Africa, adult mortality, apartheid, chronic diseases, education, gender, infectious diseases, life expectancy, morbidity, races, socio-economic status
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Baranowska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Niina  Metsä-Simola
Author-Name: Liina M. Junna
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The effects of unemployment among single mothers on adolescent children’s mental health
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-026.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peng Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maxi S. Kniffka
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jonas Schöley
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christos Bagavos
Author-Name: Ann Berrington
Author-Name: Ivan Čipin
Author-Name: Susana Clemente
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Peter Fallesen
Author-Name: Dovile Galdauskaite
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dănuţ-Vasile  Jemna
Author-Name: Mathias Lerch
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cadhla  McDonnell
Author-Name: Arno Muller
Author-Name: Karel Neels
Author-Name: Olga Pötzsch
Author-Name: Diego Ramiro
Author-Name: Bernhard Riederer
Author-Name: Saskia te Riele
Author-Name: Laura Szabó
Author-Name: Laurent Toulemon
Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tina  Žnidaršič
Title: Pandemic babies? Fertility in the aftermath of the first COVID-19 wave across European regions
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-027.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Risto Conte Keivabu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Racial disparities in deaths related to extreme temperatures in the United States between 1993 and 2005
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-028.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Neil K. Mehta
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Understanding cognitive impairment in the U.S. through the lenses of intersectionality and (un)conditional cumulative (dis)advantage
Abstract: Grounded in theories of intersectionality and cumulative (dis)advantage, we develop complementary formalizations of (dis)advantage to study disparities in cognitive impairment: Conditional Cumulative (Dis)Advantage that reflects inequalities in outcomes and Unconditional Cumulative (Dis)Advantage that additionally accounts for inequalities in opportunities. We study the properties of these formalizations and show that cumulative disadvantage does not imply cumulative advantage. Using these formalizations and incidence-based multistate models, we analyze the Health and Retirement Study to assess how racial/ethnic, nativity, gender, early-life adversity, and educational (dis)advantages accumulate into three important metrics for characterizing later-life cognitive impairment—lifetime risk, mean age at first impairment, and cognitive health expectancies. We find that the benefits and penalties of one (dis)advantage depend on positionality on the other axes of inequality. Black women and Latinas experience Conditional Cumulative Disadvantage in cognitive impairment: they are penalized more from having lower education than Whites. White men experience Conditional Cumulative Advantage: they benefit more from higher education than Blacks or Latinx. However, when accounting for racial/ethnic inequities in educational opportunities, results ubiquitously show Unconditional Cumulative Disadvantage. Our formalization provides a mathematical grounding for cumulative (dis)advantage, and the empirical results comprehensively document the multi-dimensional, intersecting axes of stratification that perpetuate inequities in cognitive impairment. 
Length: 83 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-029.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Ponkilainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Elina Einiö
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marjut Pietiläinen
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational differences in fertility among female same-sex couples
Abstract: Same-sex couples increasingly often live in legally recognized unions and have children as a couple. The accessibility of parenthood, however, depends on intersecting contextual and couple-level characteristics. Using Finnish register data on female same-sex couples who registered their partnership in 2006–2015, during which important legal reforms regarding same-sex parenthood took place, we explore how education and the existence of prior children predict childbearing within the same-sex partnership. Female same-sex couples’ likelihood of having a child within five years of registering a partnership increased from 34% to 43% over the observation window. This increase was not universal. For couples educated to tertiary level, the increase was from 39% to 52%. For primary and lower-secondary levels, the likelihood decreased from 26% to 8%. Couples with the highest level of education and no prior children were most likely to have a child, and couples with low education and a prior child born before the partnership were least likely to do so. These results highlight how intersectional factors shape female same-sex couples’ fertility behavior. Intensifying educational differences in couples’ fertility may reflect changes in couple-level characteristics as well as institutional barriers to childbearing that need more attention.   Keywords Same-sex couple, Registered partnership, Family formation, Childbearing, Educational level 
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-030.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Fallesen
Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emil Simonsen
Author-Name: Lisbeth Trille Gylling Loft
Author-Name: Laust H. Mortensen
Title: Research note: comparing ideal family size with observed and forecasted completed cohort fertility in Denmark and Norway
Abstract: We examine whether cohort ideals for children exhibit similar trends as those produced by cohort fertility forecasts in Denmark and Norway – two Nordic countries on diverging fertility trajectories. We use recent data from the Generation and Gender Survey to obtain measures of stated ideal family sizes and compare these stated ideals to those suggested by forecasts. In both Denmark and Norway, women express higher ideal family sizes than the number of children they can expect to have. For Denmark, the difference between stated ideal and expected number of children is stable over forecasts for more recent birth cohorts, whereas for Norway there is an increasing gap across recent birth cohorts between women’s ideal number of children and their expected cohort fertility driven by forecasted decline in cohort fertility. Norway either must see a fertility schedule for cohorts still in the childbearing age drastically different to any schedule ever recorded previously or should expect an increasing deficit in childbearing quantum relative to ideals.   Keywords: fertility, forecasting, Generation and Gender Survey, ideals, Nordic countries 
Length: 19 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-031.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, Norway
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Heini Väisänen
Author-Name: Ewa Batyra
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The effect of birth intention status on infant mortality: a fixed effects analysis of 60 countries
Abstract: Most studies on the impact of birth intentions on children’s wellbeing do not separate the effect of pregnancy intention status from the socio-demographic characteristics associated with it. There is a lack of studies taking a multi-country comparative perspective. We analysed 60 Demographic and Health Surveys in Asia, Americas and Africa to examine the effect of birth intentions on infant mortality using sibling fixed-effects linear probability models accounting for confounding due to unobserved time-invariant family-level characteristics. Compared to wanted births, the probability of infant mortality was higher after an unwanted or mistimed birth, or both, in 44 countries. Particularly in West Africa, mostly mistimed pregnancies were associated with infant mortality, whereas in Americas unwanted pregnancies mattered more. These differences could be partly due to contextual variation in the concept and reporting of birth intentions. We show that the risk of infant mortality after an unwanted/mistimed pregnancy was higher in countries with low human development index and high overall infant mortality rate, highlighting the importance of taking context into account rather than pooling data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale, cross-country comparative study to analyse the effect of birth intentions on infant mortality using a fixed-effects approach. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-032.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, America, Asia, Global, childbirth, comparative analysis, fertility, health, infant mortality, reproductive behavior, unplanned pregnancy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jesús  García-Gómez
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Want but won’t: a research note on the gap between fertility desires and intentions in Spain
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-033.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nicolas Todd
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories
Abstract: Adult obesity has been increasing in the United States since the 1980s. For the cohorts now in young adulthood, the future prevalence of obesity depends on current prevalence and future increase in weight. In order to investigate the future of obesity, we pooled 92,615 body-mass index (BMI) measures from 26,337 adults interviewed and examined by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), aged between 25 and 55 in years 1998-2018. We applied functional data analysis to probabilistically reconstruct individual BMI trajectories. We found that the prevalence of obesity at age 55 is expected to reach 58% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 54%-61%) for females born in 1984-1988 and 57% (95% UI, 53%-61%) for males born in the same cohort. The prevalence of severe obesity at age 55 will increase rapidly in both sexes. Time spent being obese will increase, e.g. for females from 10.7 years (95% UI, 10.4–10.9 years) in the 1964-68 cohort to 14.7 years (95% UI, 14.2-15.3 years) in the 1984-88 birth cohort. Although obesity prevalence may level off in the coming decades, higher prevalence of severe obesity as well as longer durations of obesity are therefore expected to increase the burden of this disease.   KEYWORDS: projections, obesity, time spent obese, BMI trajectory reconstruction 
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-034.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Miika Mäki
Author-Name: Anna E. Hägglund
Author-Name: Anna Rotkirch
Author-Name: Sangita Kulathinal
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Stable marital histories predict happiness and health across educational groups
Abstract: Couple relations are a key determinant of mental and physical well-being in old age. However, we do not know how the advantages and disadvantages associated with partnership histories vary between socioeconomic groups. We create relationship history typologies for the cohorts 1945-1957 using the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, and examine, for the ﬁrst time, how relationship histories relate to multiple indicators of well-being by educational attainment. Results show that stable marriages co-occur with higher well-being, compared to single and less stable partnership histories. All educational groups experience clear and similar beneﬁts from stable unions. The adverse outcomes of union dissolution are more pronounced for those with lower education. The larger drawbacks on well-being among the less educated, especially among men, suggest that those with fewer resources suﬀer more from losing a partner. The ﬁndings underscore that current and past romantic relations predict well-being in old age and help policymakers in identifying vulnerable subgroups among the aging population.   Keywords: partnership history, cumulative disadvantage, health, quality of life, aging 
Length: 41 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-035.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Bastian Mönkediek
Title: Does parental separation moderate the heritability of health risk behavior among adolescents?
Abstract: Social influences on adolescents’ health risk behavior are well documented, but little is known about the interaction of parental separation with genetic sensitivities. Using data from a German sample of 1,824 twins, this study examines whether family living arrangements moderate the extent to which health risk behavior among adolescents is influenced by genetic predispositions. Derived from variance decomposition moderator models, the results provide evidence of a significantly larger genetic contribution to smoking among adolescents living in single-mother families than among adolescents living with both parents, but not of the moderation of heritability for drug use and excessive alcohol consumption. Thus, these findings indicate that the unfolding of genetic risk is increased for smoking, but not for other substances. However, the significantly stronger influences of individual experiences of drug use observed in single-mother families reveal the overall vulnerability of families who have experienced parental separation. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-036.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The prospective power of personality factors for family formation and dissolution processes among males: evidence from Swedish register data
Length: 80 pages
Creation-Date: 2022
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2022-037.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2022-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2022-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Re-partnering and single mothers' mental health and life satisfaction trajectories
Abstract: Single mothers are a particularly disadvantaged group in terms of their mental health and life satisfaction. While it is plausible that re-partnering could compensate for these disadvantages by providing social, emotional, and financial resources, the evidence is inconclusive. Using annual panel data from Germany (1984-2020) and the United Kingdom (1991-2020), this study examines the life satisfaction and mental health trajectories around re-partnering transitions among single mothers. The guiding questions are whether re-partnering has positive (resource model) or negative (crisis model) effects on the outcomes, and whether the effects depend on the national context. Fixed-effects regressions reveal effects among 1,675 single mothers. Results show that life satisfaction is positively affected by re-partnering in both Germany and the UK, mainly driven by income-related factors. The effects on mental health differ more, with an increasing trajectory in Germany and a declining trajectory after the re-partnering transition in the UK. Overall, the findings indicate that re-partnering is beneficial, especially for the life satisfaction of single mothers, and highlight the importance of financial resources and family policies. 
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia A. Lam
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katherine Keenan
Author-Name: Genevieve Cezard
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Inequalities in disability-free and disabling multimorbid life expectancy in Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States
Abstract: Existing research on multimorbidity (two or more co-existing chronic diseases) has mainly been cross-sectional, prevalence-based, and from high-income countries, although rates of chronic diseases and related mortality are highest in low- and middle-income countries. There is also a lack of research comparing countries at varying levels of development to determine how multimorbidity progression might differ. This study uses longitudinal data from Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States and an incidence-based multistate Markov approach to estimate multimorbid life expectancy (MMLE): the years someone is expected to live with multimorbidity. We disaggregate MMLE into disability-free and disabling states to understand severity progression and stratify models by gender and education to study within-country heterogeneity. Individuals from Costa Rica have the lowest MMLE, followed by those from Mexico, then the United States. Individuals from the United States spend about twice as long with disability-free MMLE compared to others. Women generally have higher MMLE than men across countries. In the United States, disability-free MMLE increases and disabling MMLE decreases with education. This study found widespread MMLE inequalities in gender, education, and disability status. More attention must be paid to the drivers of these disparities, such as life course and health system differences across contexts.   
Length: 70 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Costa Rica, Mexico, USA, ageing, chronic diseases, developing countries, inequality, life expectancy, multi-state life tables
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Gueltzow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The role of labor market inequalities in explaining the gender gap in depression risk among older US adults
Abstract: Background: We aim to investigate to what extent gender inequality at the labor market explains higher depression risk for older US women compared to men.   Methods: We analyze data from 35,699 US adults aged 50-80 years that participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We calculate the gender gap as the difference in the prevalence of elevated depressive symptoms (>= 3, 8-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale) between women and men. We employ a dynamic causal decomposition and simulate the life course of a synthetic cohort from ages 50-80 with the longitudinal g-formula. We introduce four nested interventions by assigning women the same probabilities of A) being in an employment category, B) occupation class, C) current income, and D) prior income group as men, conditional on women’s health and family status until age 70.   Findings: The gender gap in depression risk is 2.9%-points at ages 50-51 which increases to 7.6%-points at ages 70-71. Intervention A decreases the gender gap over ages 50-71 by 1.2%-points (95%CI for change: -2.81 to 0.4), intervention D by 1.64%-points (95%CI for change: -3.28 to -0.15) or 32% (95%CI: 1.39 to 62.83), and the effects of interventions B and C are in between those of A and D. The impact is particularly large for Hispanics and low educated groups.   Interpretation: Gender inequalities at the labor market substantially explain the gender gap in depression risk in older US adults. Reducing these inequalities has the potential to narrow the gender gap in depression.   
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-003.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, gender, inequality, labor market, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Martin Diewald
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Compensation or accentuation? How parents from different social backgrounds decide to support their children
Abstract: Previous research has shown that parents respond to differences in their children’s potential by providing them with different levels of support, and that such support allocation decisions are shaped by socioeconomic status (SES). We extend this observation to the assumption, raised in research on parental compensation and social mobility, that not only the allocation, but also the form of support provided is socially stratified. Specifically, we investigate whether socioeconomically advantaged parents use mechanisms that do not rely directly on cognitive enhancement. Drawing on data from three consecutive waves of the German TwinLife study (N=962), we use twin fixed-effects models to examine how parents respond to their children having different grades. We investigate parental support strategies, including help with schoolwork and school-related communication, encouragement and explicitly formulated expectations, and extracurricular cognitive stimulation. Our findings suggest that high-SES parents tend to compensate for their children’s poor performance by helping them with schoolwork, fostering communication, and formulating academic expectations and encouragement. In contrast, we found no evidence that parents in either high- or low-SES families respond to differences in their children’s school performance by providing them with extracurricular cognitive stimulation. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-004.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: secondary education, social stratification, twins
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peng Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Immigrant-native health disparities: an intersectional perspective on the weathering hypothesis
Abstract: The weathering hypothesis implies that there is an interaction between age and race or ethnicity that results in disadvantaged groups experiencing a more rapid decline in health than other groups. While the weathering hypothesis has been tested based on racial or ethnic identity, less is known about weathering by immigration status, and about weathering as viewed from an intersectional perspective. We contribute to the literature on weathering by addressing three research questions: Are immigrants, and especially immigrant women, ageing in poorer health? Does education protect immigrants from a faster health decline with age? How do income and marital status affect the health trajectories of immigrants and natives? We focus on Germany and estimate trajectories of declining health at the intersection of age, sex, and nativity, and evaluate the role of education. We estimate the ages at immigrant-native crossover across the health trajectories, and the corresponding health levels. We find that immigrants, and especially immigrant women, age in poorer health than natives. Furthermore, we show that high education explains the differential relationship between age, nativity, and health. We also find that employment and marital status only partly account for the observed gaps, as differences persist even after these factors are considered. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Luca Badolato
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ari Gabriel Decter-Frain
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nicolas Irons
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maria Laura Miranda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Erin Walk
Author-Name: Elnura Zhalieva
Author-Name: Monica J. Alexander
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The limits of predicting individual-level longevity
Abstract: Individual-level mortality prediction is a fundamental challenge with implications for life planning, social policies and public spending. We model and predict individual-level lifespan using 12 traditional and state-of-the-art models and over 150 predictors derived from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. Machine learning and statistical models report comparable accuracy and relatively high discriminative performance, but fail to account for most lifespan heterogeneity at the individual level. We observe consistent inequalities in mortality predictability and risk discrimination, with lower accuracy for men, non-Hispanic Blacks, and low-educated individuals. Additionally, people in these groups show lower accuracy in their subjective predictions of their own lifespan. Finally, top features across groups are similar, with variables related to habits, health history, and finances being relevant predictors. We conclude by highlighting the limits of predicting mortality from representative surveys and the inequalities across social groups, providing baselines and guidance for future research and public policies. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://github.com/mpidr-mort-pred/Replication-Package
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, forecasts, inequality, longevity
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Ciganda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Future fertility scenarios in Finland: a computational forecasting approach
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-010.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hanna Semenchenko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Father absence and pubertal timing in Korean boys and girls
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jisu Kim
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Soazic E. Wang Sonne
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kiran Garimella
Author-Name: André Grow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ingmar G. Weber
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Online social integration of migrants: evidence from Twitter
Abstract: As online social activities have become increasingly important for people’s lives and well-being, understanding how migrants integrate into online spaces is crucial for providing a more complete picture of integration processes. We curate a high-quality data set to quantify patterns of new online social connections among immigrants in the United States. Specifically, we focus on Twitter, and leverage the unique features of these data, in combination with a propensity score matching technique, to isolate the effects of migration events on social network formation. The results indicate that migration events led to an expansion of migrants' networks of friends on Twitter in the destination country, relative to those of users who had similar characteristics, but who did not move. We found that male migrants between 19 and 29 years old who actively posted more tweets in English after migration also tended to have more local friends after migration compared to other demographic group, which indicates that migrants' demographic characteristics and language skills can affect their level of integration. We also observed that the percentage of migrants' friends who were from their country of origin decreased in the first few years after migration, and increased again in later years. Finally, unlike for migrants' friends networks, which were under their control, we did not find any evidence that migration events expanded migrants' networks of followers in the destination country. While following users on Twitter in theory is not a geographically constrained process, our work shows that offline (re)location plays a significant role in the formation of online networks.  
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-012.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: America, World, immigrants, immigration, integration, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Letizia Mencarini
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gendered parenthood-employment gaps in midlife: a demographic perspective across three different welfare systems
Abstract: Women’s labor force participation has increased remarkably in western countries, but important gender gaps still remain, especially among parents. This paper uses a novel comparative perspective assessing women’s and men’s mid-life employment trajectories by parity and education. We provide new insight into the gendered parenthood penalty by analyzing the long-term implications, beyond the core childbearing ages by decomposing years lived between ages 40 to 74 into years in employment,  inactivity, and retirement. We compare three countries with very different institutional settings and cultural norms: Finland, Italy, and the U.S. Our empirical approach uses the multistate incidence-based life table method. Our results document large cross-national variation, and the key role that education plays. In Finland years employed increase with parity for women and men and the gender gap is small; in the U.S. the relation between parity and years is relatively flat, whereas among those with two or more children a gender gap emerges; and in Italy, years employed decreases sharply with parity for women, and increases for men. Education elevates years employed similarly for all groups in Finland; but in the U.S and Italy, highly educated mothers experience only half of the gender gap compared to low-educated mothers. The employment trajectories of childless women and men differ greatly across countries.   
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-024-09699-2
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-013.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Fabrizio Bernardi
Author-Name: Risto Conte Keivabu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Poor air at school and educational inequalities by family socioeconomic status
Abstract: In this paper we study social stratification in the impact of poor air quality on educational achievement. We address two main questions. First, are students from socioeconomically disadvantaged families more likely to attend schools with poor air quality? Second, is the effect of bad air quality for school results the same for children from high and low socioeconomic status families? We use a novel data set with test scores in math and reading for 456,508 students in 8th grade in a test administered nationally in Italy in 2019. We geocode the location of 6,882 schools based on their addresses and link the level of air pollution of the area around the school, using data on fine particulate matter provided by the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group. To deal with possible confounders we use municipality fixed effects and control for an indicator of the characteristics of the school neighbourhood, using administrative fiscal data of the real estate values of the area around the school. We have three main findings. First, there is no SES gradient in the exposure to poor air at school. Second, we find a small but robust negative effect of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) on test scores in math but not in reading. Third, this effect is mostly concentrated among low SES students. Conversely, high SES students are largely unaffected by exposure to poor air quality at school. We conclude that exposure to air pollution can exacerbate inequalities in education and the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Hannu Lahtinen
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaarina Korhonen
Author-Name: Tim T. Morris
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Educational tracking and the polygenic prediction of education
Abstract: Although it is well known that individuals’ genetics relate to their educational attainment, our understanding of how this may vary across differing educational institutional contexts is limited. In an educational system that does not separate students into different tracks early on, individuals’ unique skills and interests may have more time to manifest, which could potentially strengthen the genetic prediction of education. We test such a hypothesis exploiting the natural experiment of the Finnish comprehensive school reform employed gradually and regionally across the country between 1972 and 1977, using genetically informed population-representative surveys linked to data from administrative registers. We observed that the genetic prediction of education was stronger after the reform by one-third among men and those coming from low-educated families. We observed no evidence for reform effects among women or those from high-educated families. The increase in genetic prediction was particularly pronounced among the first cohort experiencing the new system. From the perspective of genetic prediction, the reform to a more universalist curriculum was successful in promoting equality of opportunity. The results also highlight the potential of various turbulent circumstances – such as puberty or ongoing restructuring of institutional practices – in magnifying genetic effects. 
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Gueltzow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joost Oude Groeniger
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: P. W. Jansen
Author-Name: T. A. J. Houweling
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Title: The role of childhood obesity in socioeconomic inequalities in young adolescents’ mental health: differential exposure or differential impact?
Abstract: We investigated to what extent socioeconomic inequalities in young adolescents’ mental health are due to differential exposure to, or differential impact of obesity. We used data from 4,660 Generation R participants and defined mothers’ education and household income at child’s age 5 as a disparity measure. We estimated the contribution of differential exposure to, and differential impact of, body fat percentage at age 9 to the total disparity in internalizing and externalizing symptoms at age 13. This was done through a four-way decomposition with interventional analogues using marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment weighting. The total disparity in internalizing symptoms was 0.98 points (95%CI 0.35, 1.63) and 1.68 points (95%CI 1.13, 2.19), comparing children from least- and most-educated mothers, and lowest and highest-income households, respectively. Of these total disparities in internalizing symptoms, 0.50 points (95%CI 0.15, 0.85) and 0.24 points (95%CI 0.09, 0.46) were due to differential exposure to obesity. We found no evidence for differential exposure or impact contributing to disparities in externalizing symptoms. Our results indicate that tackling the higher obesity prevalence in children from mothers with a low socioeconomic position may also reduce inequalities in internalizing symptoms in early adolescence.  
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Netherlands, adolescence, children, inequality, mental health, obesity
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ronak Paul
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sean Reid
Author-Name: Carolina Coimbra Vieira
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christopher Wolfe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yuan Zhao
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yan Zhang
Author-Name: Rumi Chunara
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Methodological improvements in social vulnerability index construction reinforce role of wealth across international contexts
Length: 12 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Cambodia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Morocco, Nepal, Panama, Senegal, USA, World
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aliakbar Akbaritabar
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tom Theile
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Global flows and rates of international migration of scholars
Abstract: Lack of reliable and comprehensive migration data is one of the major reasons that prevents advancements in our understanding of the causes and consequences of migration processes, including for specific groups like high-skilled migrants. We leverage large-scale bibliometric data from Scopus and OpenAlex to trace the global movements of a specific group of innovators: scholars. We developed pre-processing steps and offered best practices for the measurement and identification of migration events from bibliometric data. Our results show a high level of correlation between the count of scholars in Scopus and OpenAlex for most countries. While the magnitude of observed migration events in OpenAlex is larger than in Scopus, the bilateral flows among top pairs of origin and destination countries are consistent in the two databases. Even though OpenAlex has a higher coverage of non-Western countries, the highest correlations with Scopus are observed in Western countries. We share our aggregated estimates of international migration rates, and bilateral flows, at the country level, and expect that our estimates will enable researchers to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of migration of scholars, and to forecast  the future mobility of global academic talent. 
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://github.com/MPIDR/Global-flows-and-rates-of-international-migration-of-scholars
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, World, international migration, migration, migration flow
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Samuel H. Preston
Author-Name: Yana C. Vierboom
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States
Abstract: We investigate the contribution of socio-behavioral factors to changes in US adult mortality over the period 1997-2019, using National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) for years 1997-2018 linked to death records through 2019. The variables studied include alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, health insurance coverage, educational attainment, mental distress, obesity, and race/ethnicity. We evaluate the contribution of each socio-behavioral variable to mortality change by estimating the mortality risks associated with each variable in a hazards model and applying the risks to changes in the variable’s distribution. We find that reductions in cigarette smoking and increases in educational attainment are the largest contributors to recent mortality improvements, accounting between them for 67% of mortality improvements. In a secondary analysis, we compare two subperiods to investigate whether the variables can account for a widely-observed slowdown in the rate of mortality reduction that occurred within the period of study. Rising levels of psychological distress, combined with very high risks associated with distress, were responsible for 13% of the slowdown. However, most of the slowdown remains unaccounted for.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-019.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ricarda Duerst
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jonas Schöley
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christina Bohk-Ewald
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: A validation workflow for mortality forecasting
Abstract: Accurate mortality forecasts are essential for decision makers to plan for changing needs of pension and other social security systems. Researchers have developed a variety of methods with increasing methodological complexity to forecast mortality developments. We introduce a method validation workflow designed for mortality forecasts. The aim of our workflow is to assess the suitability of forecast method depending on the prevailing mortality regime in the country of interest. For our analysis, we apply our workflow to short-term Lee-Carter forecasts for 24 countries to showcase different mortality regimes. We assess Lee-Carter's forecast performance on the life expectancy and lifespan disparity at birth. We show that the mortality regime in the country of interest plays a crucial role for the performance of a forecast method. Thus, our method validation workflow helps researchers to choose an appropriate mortality forecast method. 
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-020.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: forecasts, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Risto Conte Keivabu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marco Cozzani
Author-Name: Joshua  Wilde
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Temperature and fertility: evidence from Spanish register data
Abstract: In this paper, we combine administrative data for continental Spain from 2010 to 2018 with meteorological data to identify the effect of temperature on fertility. We demonstrate that warm (25-30°C) and hot days (>30°C) decrease total fertility rate (TFR) in Spain, and that the estimated decrease is higher than the effects estimated in previous literature for other countries. Moreover, we show that locations with a colder climate are more vulnerable to the impact of heat. Our results suggest that the global impact of climate change on population dynamics may be understated, especially without adaptation and mitigation measures, and that temperature increases may exacerbate the socio-economic consequences of low fertility such as population ageing. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-021.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henrik-Alexander Schubert
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marina Kolobova
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States
Abstract: Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: at low and intermediate levels of development, the association is negative; and at high levels of development the association is reversed and becomes positive. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this paper, we draw on subnational data on development and fertility in the U.S. states between 1969 and 2018 to examine the relationship between development and fertility. Using a longitudinal approach and addressing several criticisms of the fertility reversal hypothesis, our results support the inverse J-shaped pattern, reconciling trends observed in the U.S. with those in other high-income countries. We also discuss potential explanations for why studies might not detect the inverse J-shape. Moreover, our ﬁndings provide insights into the mechanisms that link development and fertility, showing that gender equality and economic uncertainty mediate the relationship between development and fertility. 
Length: 48 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-022.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/mrzb5/?view_only=98d4065e951d4b8bb1d03198fa12ddd8
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, economic and social development, fertility, fertility determinants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Erich Striessnig
Author-Name: Maria Rita Testa
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alessandra Trimarchi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Too worried about the environment to have children? Or more worried about the environment after having children? The reciprocal relationship between environmental concerns and fertility
Abstract: Climate change is one of the central challenges for contemporary societies. It is widely discussed as triggering “climate anxiety,” and as dampening the desire to reproduce, particularly among young people. Conversely, parenthood could affect people’s attitudes and behaviors toward the environment. Empirically, however, little is known about this potentially reciprocal relationship due to the lack of longitudinal data of sufficient temporal scope. Our study extends this debate using unique data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP), which contains both full fertility histories and yearly measures of environmental concerns (1984 to 2020). We follow individuals born between 1965 and 2000 through time and investigate a) whether environmental concerns predict first birth quantum and timing, and b) whether environmental concern trajectories vary between eventual parents and the childless. Results show no significant relationship between environmental concerns early in or throughout the life course and first birth timing or quantum, except for individuals born before 1970, who delayed parenthood if they had substantial environmental concerns. Moreover, while some differences in environmental concern trajectories between eventual parents and the childless are found, they seem to be largely rooted in unobserved heterogeneity. 
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-023.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Su Y. Jang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Healthy immigrants, unhealthy ageing? Analysis of health decline among older migrants and natives across European countries
Abstract: Immigrants face a particularly high risk of unhealthy ageing. It is well-known that the probability of having multiple chronic conditions simultaneously, or multimorbidity, tends to increase with age. This study investigates the immigrant-native disparities in age-related health decline, focusing on the number of chronic health conditions; and considers the heterogeneity of this decline within immigrant populations by origin and receiving country. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe on adults aged 50 to 79 from 28 European countries, and employ fixed-effects regression models to account for the unobserved heterogeneity related to individual characteristics, including migration background. Our results indicate that immigrants have a higher number of chronic conditions at all ages relative to their native-born peers, but also that the immigrant-native differential in the number of chronic conditions decreases from age 65 onwards. When considering differences by origin country, we find that the speed of chronic disease accumulation is slower among immigrants from the Americas and the Asia and Oceania country groups than it among natives. When looking at differences by receiving country group, we observe that the speed of health decline is slower among immigrants in Eastern Europe than among natives, particularly at older ages. Our findings suggest that age-related trajectories of health vary substantially among immigrant populations by origin and destination country, which underscore that individual migration histories play a persistent role in shaping the health of ageing immigrant populations throughout the life course. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: R. Gordon Rinderknecht
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela V. Negraia
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sophie Lohmann
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Understanding the growth of solitary leisure in the U.S., 1965 – 2018
Abstract: This research examines the extent to which solitary leisure in the U.S. has grown over the past 60 years. The demographic and technological developments of the past decades have profoundly altered the way people live life. An increase in social isolation is one potential such change, though its prevalence remains debated and challenging to directly quantify. To provide this direct quantification, we focus on an area of life where social isolation has the potential to be especially detrimental: leisure time. We assess changes in leisure spent alone via nationally representative U.S. time-use data spanning six decades. Findings indicate that time spent alone during leisure has more than doubled among working-aged adults, from 58 daily minutes in 1965 to 119 in 2018. Further, the probability of spending five hours or more in solo leisure a day has increased nearly six-fold. Multivariate analyses indicate this increase is partly accounted for by population changes, most notably reductions in marriage rates and increases in living alone, but most of the growth of solo leisure remains unexplained. Leisure is an important source of social capital and network formation, and increasingly solitary leisure may undermine well-being in the moment and across the life course. 
Length: 68 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-025.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maciej J. Dańko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Arkadiusz  Wiśniowski
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Assessing the quality of data on international migration flows in Europe: the case of undercounting
Abstract: Undercounting is a serious data quality issue that can lead to a directional bias in migration statistics. It may be caused by a lack of legal requirements for reporting migration events between and within countries, or difficulties in enforcing such requirements. The main sources of information on undercounting are the metadata accompanying official statistics and expert opinions. However, metadata related to undercounting are very limited. Similarly, expert opinions may be arbitrary, elicited from few experts who might not know all the details of the migration data shared by different countries, or who might not take into account changes in methodologies or definitions, or retrospective updates of the data after censuses. This paper aims to develop a methodological solution for the assessment of undercounting in international migration data, and has three main objectives. First, the paper provides an overview of the available metadata and expert opinions on undercounting in European migration flows. Second, the study proposes a new, data-driven, year-specific, and duration-of-stay-adjusted approach to classifying undercounting that enables scientists, researchers, policymakers, and other users to combine information from various sources. The proposed methodological solution relies on bilateral migration data provided by Eurostat and the UN, as well as migration data provided directly by some national statistical institutes (NSIs), to compare flows, in the same direction reported by a given country with high-quality data reported by another set of countries. The duration-of-stay correction coefficients are calculated by using an optimization model, or are taken from previous migration models. We construct metadata and expert opinion scores and combine them into a single classification of undercounting. Third, the final outcome is a dynamic classification of undercounting for 32 European countries (2002-2019) that is easily accessible and, flexible, and that allows for changes to the underlying assumption via an online Shiny application.Our findings suggest that the highest level of undercounting in migration data are observed in the new EU member states, particularly in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Romania. However, we also show that for certain periods, there have been notable levels of undercounting in many other European countries, including in those countries that are traditionally assumed to maintain reliable population statistics. 
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
Number: WP-2023-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aasli Abdi Nur
Author-Name: Aliakbar Akbaritabar
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maria Vignau Loria
Author-Name: Noah Coolman
Author-Name: Xinguang Fan
Author-Name: Sara Curran
Title: Bibliometric analysis of published literature on the determinants of family planning
Abstract: Introduction: Our study reviews published literature about the determinants of family planning, specifically studies that examined contraceptive use, non-use, and unmet need. We sought to understand the state of knowledge in the field, particularly as it relates to when, where, and by whom that knowledge is produced. Methods: Our extensive scoping review identified all articles published between 2000-2016 on the determinants of family planning in FP2020 countries. We use bibliometric tools and techniques to identify authors’ institutional and national affiliations, as well as their citation counts to assess how authorship characteristics contribute to knowledge production Results: Descriptive analysis of our curated database shows that contraceptive use was most frequently studied each year. Articles on Asia and Africa were published at a similar rate until 2008 when the number of studies on African countries increased dramatically relative to other FP2020 regions. We also found that most research on family planning was collaborative and focused on a single country of interest. Teams of authors had the highest rates of publication across all family planning outcomes, with teams of men and women representing the largest authorship type based on gender and teams from the Global South representing the largest group based on global location. However, our bibliometric analysis found that characteristics associated with most family planning behavior research were not those associated with citation counts. In particular, research published by authors affiliated with Global South institutions received significantly less citations compared to groups of authors affiliated with institutions in the Global North and Global South. Discussion: Citations counts are often seen as a measure of scientific impact and attention paid by the scientific community to specific research results. Our findings indicate preference for certain authorship characteristics over others based on citations, implicating concerns about knowledge diffusion disparities in family planning literature.  
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-027.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, World, family planning, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Donata Stonkute
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jeroen J. A. Spijker
Title: Educational disparities in disability-free life expectancy across Europe: a focus on the East-West gaps from a gender perspective
Abstract: Education plays a crucial role in shaping the health outcomes of adults. This study examines the relationship between educational attainment and health across Europe. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we estimate educational inequalities in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) by gender in seven Western European (2004-2019) and three Central and Eastern European (CEE) (2010-2019) countries. We exploit a novel approach that combines the Sullivan method and multivariate life tables to calculate DFLE using SHARE data. We find that educational differences in DFLE favoring the better-educated exist in both CEE and Western European countries, but also that the differences across countries are more pronounced among the low-educated. While the absolute gaps in DFLE between low- and high-educated individuals in CEE and Western European countries are similar, the educational disparities in DFLE impose a more significant burden on the CEE populations due to their overall lower life expectancy. Educational inequalities are larger among women than among men in CEE countries, while the results for Western European countries are mixed. Our findings further highlight the important role of the institutional context in mitigating or exacerbating educational inequalities in health.  
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-028.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aliakbar Akbaritabar
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Andrés F. Castro Torres
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vincent Larivière
Title: A global perspective on the social structure of science
Abstract: We reconstruct the career-long productivity, impact, (inter)national collaboration, and (inter)national mobility trajectory of 8.2 million scientists worldwide. We study the interrelationships among four well-established bibliometric claims about academics’ productivity, collaboration, mobility, and visibility. Scrutinizing these claims is only possible with a global perspective simultaneously considering influential bibliometric variables alongside collaboration among scientists. We use Multiple Correspondence Analysis with a combination of 12 widely-used bibliometric variables. We further analyze the networks of collaboration among these authors in the form of a bipartite co-authorship network and detect densely collaborating communities using Constant Potts Model. We found that the claims of literature on increased productivity, collaboration, and mobility are principally driven by a small fraction of influential scientists (top 10%). We find a hierarchically clustered structure with a small top class, and large middle and bottom classes. Investigating the composition of communities of collaboration networks in terms of these top-to-bottom classes and the academic age distribution shows that those at the top succeed by collaborating with a varying group of authors from other classes and age groups. Nevertheless, they are benefiting disproportionately to a much higher degree from this collaboration and its outcome in form of impact and citations. 
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-029.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, inequality, science
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Margherita Moretti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends in Italy 2004-2019
Abstract: Italy has witnessed increases in life expectancy and severe population ageing, raising concerns about their impact on population health. Disability status greatly affects the participation of older adults in various aspects of life. This study examines the long-term trend of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in Italy and explores the drivers in terms of disability onset and recovery dynamics, as well as changes in disability-specific mortality. By using IT-SILC longitudinal data (2004-2019), transition probabilities and DFLE between ages 50 and 79 are calculated, and the drivers of DFLE evolution are analysed through decomposition. DFLE among mid-to-older Italians has progressed overall over the last decades, albeit not as favourably as life expectancy. The trends indicate compression of disability in recent years. Changes in disability transitions have the greatest influence on DFLE patterns, while less the changes in disability-specific mortality. The greatest contributions come from increases in the probability of recovery from disability.  
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-030.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, ageing, demographic models, disability
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ben Malinga John
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Neglected forces of fertility variation in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of marital dissolution and repartnering
Abstract: Union dissolution and repartnering are fundamental features of nuptiality regimes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, they are greatly overlooked in the discourse of macro fertility developments in this region. This paper addresses this gap. Theoretically, the paper argues for a modified conceptual framework linking union dissolution, repartnering and fertility that emphasizes adaptation mechanisms as a central pathway through which union dissolution and repartnering affect fertility. Empirically, the paper uses Demographic Health Survey data to examine: (i) the macro-level relationship between union dissolution and repartnering rates with fertility, (ii) the contribution of union dissolution and repartnering rates to cross-country fertility variation, and (iii) the influence of union dissolution and repartnering on the pace of fertility decline. The results revealed that union dissolution and repartnering dynamics are important forces of fertility variation in SSA. Higher union dissolution rates are associated with lower fertility, and country heterogeneity in union dissolution and repartnering rates account for 9.0% of cross-country fertility differences. Furthermore, it is found that union dissolution and repartnering dynamics mostly slowed the pace of fertility decline. These findings call for a new research agenda for integrating union dissolution and repartnering dynamics in the discourse of union-fertility nexus and fertility variation in SSA and beyond.     
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-031.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany/GDR, cohort fertility, dissolution of marriage, fertility decline, remarriage
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir M. Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: David A. Leon
Title: Decomposition of differences between life expectancy losses or gains: relative change and absolute level components. A research note
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-032.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela Grunow
Author-Name: Ansgar Hudde
Title: Couples’ ideological pairings, relative income and housework sharing
Abstract: Our study offers and empirically tests a new conceptual framework of couples’ housework sharing. We suggest that the partners’ joint gender ideology, or their ‘ideological pairings’ will determine their housework sharing. Further, we argue the link between couples’ relative socio-economic resources and their housework sharing likely depends on these ‘ideological pairings’. Our results, based on data from the German Panel Study of Family and Income Dynamics (pairfam) and mixed- and fixed-effects panel regressions, offer support for this conceptualization. First, we find egalitarian attitudinal duos to share housework the most equally, traditional attitudinal duos to share housework the most unequally, and mismatched attitudinal couples to lie in between. Second, our results indicate that only egalitarian duos further equalize housework sharing when she becomes the family’s main earner. Traditional duos don’t adjust their housework divisions even if she outearns him. Findings for mismatched couples are mixed, but don’t lend support for successful within-couple re-negotiations of housework divisions as her income share rises. Our study advances prior literature by conceptualizing the relevance of the partners’ joint attitudes for gendered domestic work divisions and by making complex interactions between sociological and economic aspects visible. Further, it underscores the importance of investigating couples as an essential meso-level institution in the reproduction of gender inequalities. 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-033.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation
Abstract: An incomplete understanding of biases affecting the representativeness of genealogies has hindered their full exploitation. We report on a series of experiments on synthetic populations designed to assess how different biases in ascendant genealogies can affect the accuracy of demographic estimates. Using the SOCSIM microsimulation programme and Swedish fertility and mortality data (1751-2022), we analyse three sources of bias: selection in direct lineages, incomplete reconstruction of family trees, and missing information on subpopulations. Comparing demographic measures derived from ‘fully-recorded’ and ‘bias-infused’ synthetic populations, we find that including only direct ancestors leads to underestimating total fertility rate (TFR) (c.a. −39%) before the fertility decline and overestimating life expectancy at birth (e0) (c.a. +42.2%) in the first two centuries. However, after including collateral kin, TFR underestimation was reduced to −2.4% and e0 overestimation limited to +1.5%. Our study shows that the completeness of family trees is essential for obtaining accurate demographic estimates. 
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-034.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://github.com/liliana-calderon/SOCSIM_Genealogies
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: genealogy, historical demography, kinship, microsimulation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Chia-Jung Tsai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: R. Gordon Rinderknecht
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The interplay between refugee inflows and media coverage in determining attitudes towards immigration in Germany
Abstract: In this study, we examined the role media plays in moderating the relationship between refugee influx and anti-immigration attitudes across German regions. Specifically, we focused on the salience of refugees in local news media in each region, and we explored the extent to which such attention heightened the connection between increasing refugees in an area and growth in anti-immigration views. We conducted this analysis using data from the German Socio-Economic-Panel (2011-2017), asylum applications data from the Federal Office of Statistics, and the Gdelt database, which is a real-time news database. Using a mixed effect approach, we found that the effect of refugee influx on anti-immigration attitudes across regions was moderated as expected by the salience of refugees in local news, albeit in former East Germany but not in former West Germany. We contend that this difference between East and West Germany relates to East Germany’s relatively stronger ethnonationalist attitudes. Based on this, we conclude that refugee salience in media plays an essential, albeit inconsistent, role in characterizing changes in population composition as threatening, and thus in triggering anti-immigration attitudes. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-035.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, attitude, immigration, media, refugees
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist
Author-Name: Marika Jalovaara
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Parental separation and children’s education – changes over time?
Abstract: Objective and background: The association between parental separation and children’s education has been widely studied, but mostly at a single time point, for one educational outcome at a time and for marital dissolution only. We examine whether the (generally negative) association has changed across cohorts for several educational outcomes and whether the association differs by parental union type (marriage, cohabitation) and family background (parental education). Due to high rates of separation, the association with children’s education could have weakened over time.   Methods: We use Finnish total population register data. We focus on child cohorts born between 1987 and 2003 (N=1,004,823) and analyse grade point averages, secondary education and tertiary education using linear probability models with standard errors clustered within families.   Results and conclusion: The association between parental separation and educational achievement is negative and has remained similar across the birth cohorts. Differences according to parental union type and socioeconomic family background are small and do not exhibit changes over time. The stability of the association over time suggests that the consequences of parental separation on children’s education have not changed, even though attitudes towards separation may have changed.   Keywords: parental separation, parental divorce, children’s education, cohort differences 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-036.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Riku Laine
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Aaltonen
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sociohistorical context and post-prison life course
Abstract: Life-course criminology has recently begun to focus on the sociohistorical context, with the use of multi-cohort studies. However, those studies have mostly concentrated on offending or aggregate crime rates. Desistance research, in turn, has largely overlooked the impact of the broader sociohistorical context. Based on recent work on the sociohistorical context and offending, we propose that context can also shape the desistance process.   We examined the employment, housing, and marriages of Finnish first-time prisoners released between 1995 and 2014 (N = 23 358) until 2019. We quantified the link between selected macro-level indicators and these three outcomes using applied age-period-cohort-models.   The results showed that the outcomes evolved in separate ways post-release. Employment and marriage became more common, but only employment showed distinct periodical changes. The probability of living in housing remained relatively stable. A higher level of national unemployment was associated with all outcomes. The association between background factors and the outcomes changed depending on release year.   Post-prison societal integration should not be measured by recidivism alone. Desistance studies should address the societal context when comparing different times or countries. Early studies may require replication if the associations between demographic factors and desistance outcomes are subject to change. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-037.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aliakbar Akbaritabar
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maciej J. Dańko
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Xinyi Zhao
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sub-national disparities in the global mobility of academic talent
Abstract: The migration of scholars has been often studied across countries, however, these studies have rarely focused on sub-national regions. We used data on 28+ million Scopus publications of 8+ million unique authors and geo-coded the aﬀiliation addresses. Our results show that by focusing on the sub-national regions, the share of mobile scholars increases from 8% to 12.4%. We found that in all continents when a sub-national region is attractive for international migrants, it is also attractive for internal ones. The reverse is not true, though. For most continents, a depopulation is happening where scholars move abroad and their position is filled by scholars arriving from other sub-national regions inside the country. In the US, as an example, states in the mid-eastern area have the highest net rate of scholars leaving for other destinations inside the US, mostly on the west coast. In Europe, multiple countries show a similar trend that more developed provinces receive scholars from internal origins and send scholars to international destinations. Our results have implications for the global circulation of academic talent by adding more nuance to the generally accepted image of brain drain and brain gain. We highlight the interrelation between internal and international migration, specifically for regions constantly losing their academic workforce. 
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-038.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: World, internal migration, international migration, migration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Athina Anastasiadou
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jisu Kim
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Asli Ebru Şanlitürk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Helga A. G. de Valk
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Sex- and gender-based differences in the migration process: a systematic literature review
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-039.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Neil K. Mehta
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Intersectionality and opportunity-weighted cumulative (dis)advantage
Abstract: Grounded in theories of intersectionality and cumulative (dis)advantage, we develop complementary formalizations of (dis)advantage: one that captures the traditional practice of studying Cumulative (Dis)Advantage (CDA) that reflects inequalities in outcomes and Opportunity-Weighted CDA that additionally accounts for inequalities in opportunities. We study the properties of these (dis)advantages and show that traditional cumulative disadvantage and advantage are mutually exclusive; this is not true of opportunity-weighted CDA. Using these formalizations, we analyze the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2018) to assess how total life expectancy at age 50 is associated with the accumulation of racial/ethnic, nativity, gender, early-life, and educational (dis)advantages. We find that the benefits and penalties of one (dis)advantage depend on positionality on the other axes of inequality. Whites ubiquitously experience Cumulative Advantage: they benefit more from having higher education than Blacks and Latinx. However, when accounting for racial/ethnic inequities in educational attainment, results predominantly show Opportunity-Weighted Cumulative Disadvantage for Blacks and Latinx. Finally, we present a specification curve analysis that includes early-life adversity. Our contributions include the formalization (a mathematical grounding) of two CDA approaches – traditional and one that incorporates inequities in opportunities – and empirical results that comprehensively document the intersecting axes of stratification that perpetuate health inequities. 
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-040.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/y8dnz/?view_only=1d31f2f3b56042c3b3ca13356904f800
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-040
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, life expectancy, social demography, social stratification
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-040
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-040

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Statistical inference for discrete-time multistate models: asymptotic covariance matrices, partial age ranges, and group contrasts
Abstract: This paper lays out several new asymptotic inference results for discrete-time multistate models. First, it derives asymptotic covariance matrices for the outcome statistics of conditional and/or state expectancies, mean age at first entry, and lifetime risk. It then discusses group comparisons of these outcome measures, which require the calculation of a joint covariance matrix of two or more results. Finally, new procedures are presented for the estimation of multistate models over a partial age range, and how these subrange calculations relate to the result that is obtained from the full age range of the model. All newly derived expressions are compared against bootstrap results in order to verify correctness of results and to assess performance. 
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-041.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/nxeaf/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: multi-state life tables, statistical analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Statistical inference for discrete-time multistate models: extensions to Markov Chains with rewards
Abstract: Markov Chains with rewards (MCWR) have been shown to be a useful modelling extension to discrete-time multistate models (DTMS). In this paper, we substantially improve and extend the possibilities that MCWR holds for DTMS. We make several contributions. First, we develop a system of creating and naming different rewards schemes, so-called "standard rewards". While some of these schemes are of interest in their own right, several new possibilities emerge when dividing one rewards result by another, the result of which we call "composite rewards". In total, we can define at least ten new useful outcome statistics based on MCWR that have not yet been used in the literature. Secondly, we derive expressions for asymptotic covariance matrices that are applicable for any standard rewards definition. Thirdly, we show how joint covariance matrices of two or more rewards results can be obtained, which leads to expressions for covariance matrices of composite rewards. Lastly, expressions for point estimates and covariance matrices of partial age ranges are derived. We confirm correctness of results by comparisons to simulation-based results (point estimates) and by comparisons to bootstrap-based results (covariance matrices). 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-042.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/nxeaf/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-042
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: multi-state life tables, statistical analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-042
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-042

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Afza Rasul
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jamal Abdul Nasir
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Quality of reported ages: a robust re-modification in total modified Whipple’s index
Abstract: In demographic research, th accuracy of the reported ages in surveys and censuses is a persistently important issue. The common indexes developed and used to examine the quality of age data are Whipple, Myers, Bachi's, modified Whipple, and the total modified Whipple’s index. The most commonly used and simplest to compute index is the original Whipple's index proposed by George Chandler Whipple. It is a summary measure used to check age heaping on ages ending with digits 0 and 5. The other summary index is the total modified Whipple index (Wtot) by Spoorenberg (2007). A re-modification (RW′tot) is proposed for the total modified Whipple index. The new modification, based on the method of the original Whipple index for all digits (0, 1, 2 … 9), is simple, robust, and easy to interpret. The proposed modification is suitable for social, temporal, and spatial comparisons of the quality of self-reported and interviewer-recorded ages at the time of surveys and censuses.   Key Words: Quality of reported ages, Whipple Index, Modified Whipple Index, Total Modified Whipple index 
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-043.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-043
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-043
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-043

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Neil K. Mehta
Title: Trends in cognitive impairment among older adults in the USA and Europe, 1996-2018
Abstract: Background Single-country studies document varying time trends in cognitive impairment. Comparative analyses across several countries are limited.   Methods We use data for a total of 13 countries from three large representative surveys (USA: HRS; England: ELSA; 11 European countries: SHARE), across years 1996-2018, and ages 50 and above. Cognitive function is based on the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status. We use linear regression to study trends in average test scores and logistic regression for cognitive impairment. We analyze trend heterogeneity by gender, age, and education and explore mechanisms by adjusting for migration background, education, health and health behaviors, and partnership status.   Results The age-adjusted 10-year change in average score is 0.23 standard deviations (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.24) for SHARE countries; 0.08 (95% CI 0.05, 0.10) in England; and -0.02 (95% CI -0.03, -0.01) in the USA The 10-year change in odds ratio for cognitive impairment is 0.63 (95% CI 0.61, 0.66) for SHARE; 0.93 (95% CI 0.85, 1.02) in England; and 1.05 (95% CI 1.02, 1.09) in the USA. The trends are largely similar across gender, education, and age subgroups. Regional differences in trends remain after adjustment for potential mechanisms.    Conclusions Time trends in cognitive function and impairment vary across countries. European countries have experienced improvement over the last twenty years, whereas the USA time trend is worsening or stagnating both in mean scores and in indicators for impairment. Uncovering the causes for this “American exceptionalism” should be both a research and public health priority.   Keywords: Cognitive impairment, dementia, trends, comparative analysis 
Length: 51 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-044.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-044
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-044
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-044

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Torsten Santavirta
Title: Look at your old men dying: long-run effect of civil war on mortality
Abstract: We study the long-run effect of early adulthood prison camp exposure on mortality using an examiner design and data on 6,961 former prisoners during the Finnish Civil War of 1918. Our descriptive analysis shows a statistically significant adverse association and a dose response between prison sentence length and old-age mortality. Our instrumental variable design exploits the variation in judge sentence tendency across quasi-randomly assigned judges. We document an effect of sentence length on old-age mortality that is five times larger than the estimated associations. We show that our causal estimates have a local average treatment effect interpretation for the compliers.   Keywords: Civil war, Ageing, Mortality, Examiner design 
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-045.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-045
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-045
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-045

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José C. Andrade Santacruz 
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: An overlapping cohorts perspective of lifespan inequality
Abstract: A growing applied literature investigates the levels, trends, causes, and effects of lifespan variation. This work is typically based on measures that combine partial cohort histories into a synthetic cohort, most frequently in a period-life table, or focus on single (completed) cohort analysis. We introduce a new cohort-based method, the overlapping cohorts perspective, that preserves individual cohort histories and aggregates them in a population level measure. We apply these new methods to describe levels and trends in lifespan variation, and to the assessment of temporary and permanent mortality changes in several case studies, including the surge of violent deaths in Colombia in the 1990s and 2000s, and cause-deleted exercises for top mortality causes such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer. The results from our approach differ from those of existing methods in the timing, trends, and levels of the impact of these mortality developments on lifespan variability, bringing new insights to applied work. 
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-046.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/t6qns/
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-046
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: cohort analysis, life tables
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-046
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-046

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Jessica Donzowa
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela Perrotta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Assessing self-selection biases in online surveys: evidence from the COVID-19 Health Behavior Survey
Length: 59 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-047.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-047
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, USA, advertising, bias, cross-sectional surveys
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-047
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-047

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Manuel T. Valdés
Author-Name: Mar C. Espadafor
Author-Name: Risto Conte Keivabu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Can a low emission zone improve academic performance? Evidence from a natural experiment in the city of Madrid
Abstract: -In late 2018, the government of Madrid instituted a low emission zone (LEZ) in the central district of the city, aiming primarily to alleviate traffic-related emissions and enhance air quality. Extensive research has documented the adverse effects of air pollution on academic performance. Consequently, the success of Madrid’s LEZ in reducing traffic-related emissions could potentially translate into improved performance among students schooled in the designated area. Through a difference-in-differences design, we demonstrate the policy's effectiveness in improving air quality during the four years following its implementation. Subsequently, we show a noteworthy increase of 0.17 standard deviations in the average EvAU scores (high-stakes examinations for university admittance) of high schools within the LEZ, a crucial advantage for gaining entry into the most competitive university programs. Importantly, our findings reveal positive spillover effects in the surroundings of the LEZ area and a larger effect the longer and earlier the exposure to cleaner air. In sum, our study offers compelling empirical evidence of the beneficial educational impacts resulting from the implementation of a low emission zone successful in improving air quality.   
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-048.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-048
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-048
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-048

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Gueltzow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hannu Lahtinen
Author-Name: Maarten J. Bijlsma
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Genetic susceptibility to depression and the role of partnership status
Abstract: This study explored the interplay between genetic predisposition, partnership status and depression by examining the association of a polygenic risk score (PGS) for depression with time to antidepressant purchasing and the moderating role of partnership status. We analysed data from 30,192 Finnish individuals with an accelerated failure time model. While the cumulative hazard of antidepressant purchasing varied across PGS and partnership status – with the highest cumulative hazard in the widowed group, followed by divorced, single, married and cohabiting – we found no evidence for an interaction between PGS and partnership status. Results were robust to different model specifications, gender stratification, choice of PGS, and endogenous selection. Although antidepressant purchasing correlated with both PGS and partnership status, we found no evidence that partnership status could partially offset or amplify the association between the PGS for depression and depression incidence.  
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-049.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-049
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, genetics, marital status, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-049
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-049

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Elena Pojman
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Duke Elijah Mwedzi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Orlando Olaya Bucaro
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Stephanie  Zhang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Michael Chong
Author-Name: Monica J. Alexander
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Leaving for life: using online crowd-sourced genealogies to estimate the migrant mortality advantage for the United Kingdom and Ireland during the 18<sup>th</sup> and 19<sup>th</sup> centuries
Abstract: Demographic studies consistently find a mortality advantage among migrants, but a lack of longitudinal data tracking individuals across national borders has limited the study of historical international migration. To address this gap, we use the crowd-sourced online genealogical database Familinx to estimate the migrant mortality advantage for migrants from the United Kingdom and Ireland between 1750 and 1910. We compare age at death for non-migrants and migrants to Canada, the United States, South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia using mixed-effects regression models that account for unobserved factors shared between siblings. Results suggest an overall expected migrant advantage of 5.9 years, 95% CI [5.7, 6.2] even after accounting for between-family variation, with migrants estimated to live an additional 2.6 [1.1, 4.0] to 8.7 [6.3, 11.2] years depending on the country of destination. This study contributes to the understanding of the migrant mortality advantage in a historical context and shows the potential for online genealogies to contribute to demographic research.     Keywords: crowd-sourced genealogies, migrant mortality advantage, United Kingdom, Ireland, sibling effects  
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2023
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-050.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2023-050
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, USA, genealogy, migration, mortality, siblings
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-050
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-050

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Afza Rasul
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jamal Abdul Nasir
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: New adjustment procedure for distortion in age distribution
Abstract: Accurate age data is a prerequisite for any demographic inquiry. Unfortunately, in many developing countries visible age heaping is present in census and survey data of reported age at the time of census or survey. In this article, a new method is proposed for age adjustment of the respondent current age at the time of interview/data collection. The method is based on the rectangular distribution probabilities for terminal digits of age. The algorithms-based method is used to estimate true/adjusted age distribution in the presence of age heaping/age misreporting. Application of the method is performed on the most recent demographic and health survey data from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Ethiopia, and Gambia. UN Criteria for age accuracy is used to check the accuracy of adjusted/true age distribution. The result revealed that after adjustment of the terminal digit by the proposed method of digit shift the adjusted age distributions are perfectly accurate. The method will be applicable to survey and census data. The method will be very useful in fertility analysis where the individual year of age of women plays an important role. 
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sampo Lappo
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ziwei Rao
Author-Name: Heikki Tikanmäki
Title: Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability

Abstract: Future fertility is a key input when charting the sustainability of social security systems, and declining fertility is often expected to put pressure on economic indicators such as pension burden. Such expectations are based on a narrow view of the impact of fertility on the economy, focusing on age structure. Dynamic impacts – for instance, the potential for increased human capital of smaller cohorts – are mostly ignored. We use a dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model to explore to what extent investments in human capital could offset the adverse economic impact of low fertility. We implement our model in the Finnish context, which is a particularly interesting case as Finland is the fastest-ageing European country and experienced dramatic fertility declines and stagnant education levels in the 2020s. We find that an ambitious but simple human capital investment strategy that keeps the total investment constant despite declining cohort size, thereby increasing per-capita investment, can offset the negative impact of a smaller labor force on pension burden. Human capital investment not only reduces pension burden, but also increases working years, pension income, retirement years, and longevity. Policies focusing on human capital investment are likely to be a viable strategy to maintain economic sustainability.   Keywords: low fertility, human capital investment, economic sustainability, Finland, dynamic longitudinal microsimulation model 
Length: 49 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Su Y. Jang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Inequalities in multimorbidity between older migrants and natives across Europe
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-003.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Stefano Arnolfo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nicole Hiekel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Pathways of family change: a typology of multipartnered fertility life courses in five Northern European countries

Abstract: This study investigates the heterogeneity of multipartnered fertility (MPF) trajectories in the Northern European context, where transformations in family formation patterns and in the partnership context of childbearing, together with high social acceptance for new family behaviours, result in a large degree of family life course differentiation. Applying sequence and cluster analyses to high-quality partnership and fertility histories of men and women who experience MPF from the Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, Estonian, and Finnish Generations and Gender Survey Round II collected between 2020 and 2022, we provide a timely description of how MPF trajectories unfold, and identify a typology of these family life courses. Our findings reveal that in the five countries, various trajectories of MPF co-exist that differ substantially in terms of the order and timing of union formation and dissolution, and the partnership context of births. Furthermore, we investigate gender and socioeconomic inequalities, and reflect on the potential vulnerabilities nested within MPF life courses and the additional layer of disadvantage that childbearing can represent for mothers vis-à-vis fathers in the context of family complexity. 
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Exploring associations between the Covid-19 vaccination campaign and fertility trends: a population-level analysis for 22 countries
Abstract: At the turn of 2021-2022, monthly birth rates declined in many higher-income countries. We explore how COVID-19 vaccination was associated with this decline. Using an interrupted time series design, we evaluate the impact of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of COVID-19 vaccination on seasonally-adjusted monthly total fertility rates in 22 high-income countries. Our findings show that the start of the pandemic had an immediate effect on fertility in most countries, although the size and direction of level changes considerably varied. The impact of COVID-19 vaccination was less all-embracing. A negative association between the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and fertility nine months later was found for ten out of 22 studied countries. For several countries, the decline was preceded by fertility increase that took place after the onset of the pandemic. Only four out of 22 countries had post-vaccination fertility declines that resulted in fertility being on a lower level than what the pre-pandemic trend predicted. Additional controlling for youth unemployment, stringency index, and vaccination coverage changed the associations only little. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign contributed to the variation in the short-term fertility trends. Fertility appeared to have responded in short run to vaccination, however, the resulting decline returned fertility closer to the pre-pandemic trend in most cases, and only in few countries, fertility dropped below the pre-pandemic trend. 
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-006.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Canada, Europe, Israel, Japan, Korea, South, USA, fertility, fertility decline, vaccination
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ana C. Gómez Ugarte Valerio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Carlo G. Camarda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Fanny Janssen
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Reassessing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality via distributional similarities
Abstract: Commonly used measures of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, such as the slope and the relative index of inequality, are based on summary measures of the group-specific age-at-death distributions (e.g. life expectancy). While this approach is informative, it ignores valuable information contained in the group-specific distributions. We apply and evaluate a novel measure of socio-economic inequality in mortality. Leveraging a metric of statistical distance, our Population Total Variation (PTV) measure is sensitive not only to changes in the means or variances, but also to broader mortality changes that affect distributional shapes. The PTV also allow the levels and trends of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality to be decomposed into mortality changes versus changes in the composition of the population. We use mortality data by socioeconomic groups to assess mortality inequalities with both established measures and our proposed PTV. Our findings suggest that levels and trends in mortality inequalities computed with the PTV differ compared to other conventional summary-based measures. The method we propose can be applied to any context where mortality rates are available by socio-economic groups. We conclude that measuring distributional similarities in mortality enhances our understanding of between groups inequalities in mortality.  
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-007.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/6sv5z/?view_only=4088fe63b22e4e97856781427f697bca
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Denmark, England, Sweden, inequality, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ole Hexel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Family structure and bequest inequalities between black and white households in the United States, 1989-2022
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, inequality, wealth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Kathryn C. Beck
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: More education and fewer children? the contribution of educational enrollment and attainment to the fertility decline in Norway
Abstract: Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. While there is a clear education-fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it’s unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrolment, attainment and childbearing for men and women born in 1964-2002. Using a counterfactual approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility by education to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11-2.01) for 1964-1974 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts and the predicted decline thereafter (1.76 by the 1988 cohort), and the 2010s period fertility decline, is fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and didn’t contribute to the fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the lower educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education isn’t the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, socioeconomic resources increasingly promote childbearing for both genders.   Keywords: Educational attainment, educational enrollment, fertility decline, Norway, multi-state model, fertility forecasting 
Length: 61 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-009.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henrik-Alexander Schubert
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and male childlessness in Finland
Abstract: Male childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland in 2022, the share of all men who were childless at age 45 had reached 29%. What is causing these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether gender imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of male childlessness. Partner markets are unbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to women, or vice versa. The data generally shows increasingly imbalanced partner market situation for men over time, but with considerable regional heterogeneity. Regression results indicate an increased probability of childlessness at age 45 after extended exposure to unbalanced partner markets over the life course. This association is particularly strong for low-income men. These ﬁndings are robust across indicators and speciﬁcations. Overall, the regional context seems to play a crucial role in the risk of childlessness. 
Length: 75 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-010.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, fertility, fertility decline
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Niina  Metsä-Simola
Author-Name: Hanna M. Remes
Author-Name: Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Parental separation risk before and after the diagnosis of a child physical health condition
Abstract: Results of previous research examining whether children’s physical health conditions increase the risk of parental separation show considerable heterogeneity, potentially due to varying degrees of severity of health conditions, or to reverse causality or diagnostic delays for certain conditions. This study aims to extend the previous literature by categorizing eight common child health conditions into grades of severity, and estimating changes in parental separation risk before and after the first diagnosis. Using total population data from Finnish registers, we follow 363,830 couples whose first child was born between 1987 and 2000 until the child’s 18th birthday. We identify parents whose child was diagnosed with a less severe (allergies, atopic dermatitis, chronic/repeated ear infections), severe (type 1 diabetes, epilepsy, inflammatory bowel disease, rheumatoid arthritis), or life-threatening (cancer) physical health condition, and use discrete-time event-history-models to examine changes in parental separation risk in each group compared to those in couples whose first child remained undiagnosed. Our results reveal that changes in separation risk differed by the severity of the child's health condition, with the risk temporarily declining following the diagnosis of a life-threatening condition, but increasing following the diagnosis of a severe condition. In contrast, separation risk was already elevated years before the first diagnosis of a less severe condition, and began to decline after the diagnosis. These findings suggest that while most parents avoided separation at the time of the diagnosis of a life-threatening illness, the stress and burden related to children’s physical health conditions otherwise increased parental separation risk. 
Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: children, end of union, family dynamics, parenthood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Zafer Büyükkeçeci
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Siri E. Håberg
Author-Name: Cecilia H. Ramlau-Hansen
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Subjective biology: how perceived fecundity influences relationship satisfaction and stability
Abstract: Objective: This study investigates how perceived own fecundity and that of the partner are related to life satisfaction, relationship satisfaction, and union dissolution.   Background: Across many high-income countries, fertility has been gradually moving to ages at which fecundity starts to decline. This delay in reproductive timing can have profound implications for individuals' fertility outcomes, increasing the risk of either voluntary or involuntary childlessness. In a context that is characterized by late childbearing, perceived fecundity, both one’s own and that of the partner, may emerge as an important determinant of individuals' overall satisfaction and the dynamics of their romantic relationships.   Method: Using 13 waves of longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), we employ individual fixed-effects models to examine within-person changes in perceived fecundity, both one’s own and that of the partner, and their consequences for satisfaction and relationship outcomes.    Results: Declines in perceived fecundity, for both oneself and one's partner, were associated with reductions in life and relationship satisfaction. A key finding is that the partner's perceived fecundity, as rated by the anchor, had a stronger impact on relationship outcomes than the anchor’s own perceived fecundity. Additionally, an increase in the risk of union dissolution was observed with a decline in the partner's perceived fecundity, while such an association was not found with one's own perceived fecundity. Our analysis revealed no significant gender differences in these associations. Additional analyses, in which we interacted perceived fecundity with parental status and age, showed that the relationship between perceived fecundity and outcomes was weaker among parents than among childless individuals, and decreased with age.   Conclusion: The study contributes to the literature on fertility dynamics and their social implications by highlighting the role of subjective perceptions of one’s own fecundity and that of the partner in shaping life satisfaction and relationship resilience. 
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-012.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fecundity, fertility, interspouse relationships, satisfaction, separation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Iñaki Permanyer
Author-Name: Rustam Tursun-Zade
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Magdalena Muszynska-Spielauer
Title: Calculating the joint distribution of years lived in good and poor health
Length: 13 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/ms_dist
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-013.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Francisco Villavicencio
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mauricio Gonzalez-Forero
Title: Sensitivity and decomposition of multistate healthy life expectancy
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://github.com/timriffe/ms_sensitivity
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carla Rowold
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Differences in gender pension gaps in public and private pensions in West Germany: what role do work-family life courses play?
Abstract: Even though Gender Pension Gaps (GPG) surpass gender wage gaps in most European countries, we know less about how they emerge and relate to gendered life-course inequalities. This study contributes by applying a life-course-sensitive decomposition to linked survey-register data for Germany (SHARE-RV), decomposing gender gaps in public and private pensions based on common work-family life courses. It considers the interdependencies of employment, family life, and earning positions over the life course, relevant due to pension privatization in Europe. GPGs occur because privileged life courses (stable civil servant careers for public and high-income employment for private pensions) yield high pensions but are almost exclusively accessible by fathers. Gender differences in access to high-income careers for parents drive the GPG in private pensions more than the gap in public pensions. The study underscores the future risk of high GPGs given the persistently high Gender Wage Gap and pension privatization in Germany.  
Length: 82 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/czn74
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), employment, family life cycle, gender, income, life cycle, pension schemes, retirement pensions
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Ricarda Duerst
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jonas Schöley
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Calibrating probabilistic forecast paths on past forecast errors: an application to the Finnish Total Fertility Rate
Length: 8 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Laura Miranda
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Cássio M. Turra
Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo City, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased mortality rates, disrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death saw a decrease of over four years in life expectancy at birth for males and over three years for females between 2019 and 2021. São Paulo has been at the forefront of the demographic transition in the country and experienced a nonlinear mortality decline over the 20th century. The city's historical mortality trajectory and the disruptive effects of COVID-19 have introduced challenges to mortality forecasting.   In this study, we used a unique dataset starting from 1920 to forecast life expectancy in São Paulo until 2050 using the Lee-Carter (LC) and Lee-Miller (LM) methods. Mortality rates were obtained from a combination of deaths gathered by the SEADE Foundation (SEADE) and population collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). To mitigate the dependency on the fitting period's choice and better incorporate the effects of the recent mortality shock, we used different baseline periods, using all years from 1920 to 1995 as the starting year of the analysis and six scenarios for post-pandemic mortality levels. Additionally, we used a simulation approach for the time-index parameter to calculate prediction intervals. Based on 73,200 simulations for each year between 2023 and 2050, we synthesized the resulting life expectancy forecasts into median values and 95% prediction intervals (PI).   By 2050, we predict that life expectancy at birth in São Paulo will reach approximately 81.5 years for men and 88.3 years for women. Also, within the 95% PI, we estimated that by 2045, male life expectancy could reach the levels of best-performing countries. Our approach is among the first attempts to forecast mortality in the presence of shocks. Additionally, by evaluating different baseline periods, we advocate for the adoption of more accurate forecasting strategies, particularly in contexts of recent mortality decline. These findings provide valuable resources for policymakers and researchers working to address public health challenges arising from the pandemic and plan for the future well-being of many populations. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Brazil
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sanny Boy Domingo Afable
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Yana C. Vierboom
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Megan Evans
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Júlia Mikolai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Health decline and residential transitions among older adults in Europe
Abstract: Residential mobility is one strategy to cope with the challenges of ageing. But how health decline triggers residential mobility and whether this relationship differs by parental status remain underexplored. Using data on parents and non-parents aged 50+ from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we perform multinomial logistic regression to examine how recent and previous experiences of acute health events, functional limitation, worsened frailty status, and worsened self-rated health influence the two-year probability of transitions between independent private home living, co-residence with a child (among parents), receiving home-based care, and nursing home admission. We find that none of the health variables are associated with parents’ co-residential moves with adult children, while acute health events, functional limitation, and worsened frailty are associated with transitions to home-based care for parents and non-parents alike. Previous experiences of these health declines have a stronger influence on most residential transitions compared to their recent counterparts across parental status, suggesting that the “triggering” effects of health on residential mobility take time. Our findings demonstrate the importance of viewing late-life residential mobility from a relational, competing risk framework, and highlight home-based care as key strategy for responding to health challenges in later life. 
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, ageing, health, residential mobility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-018

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia A. Lam
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katherine Keenan
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Disease accumulation across birth cohorts in South Korea
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-019.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-019
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Korea, South, chronic diseases, cohort analysis
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-019
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-019

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Valeria Ferraretto
Author-Name: Nicole Hiekel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Agnese Vitali
Title: Do his or her economic characteristics matter? A couple-level perspective on the transition to living together in Germany
Length: 42 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-020.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-020
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-020
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-020

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carla Rowold
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Full-time employment is all that matters? Quantifying the role of relevant and gender-exclusive life course experiences for gender inequalities
Abstract: Gender Pension Gaps (GPG) represent crucial indicators of gender inequalities over the life course and reflect the value welfare states place on different types of work. Despite reaching higher levels, they receive less attention than other gender inequalities, such as gender wage gaps. More generally, research on gender inequalities typically focuses on selected sets of life course summary measures, predominantly the employment duration, to explain gender inequalities across the life course.   Taking a life course perspective and using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for the Netherlands and West Germany, I propose an innovative combination of machine learning, sequence analysis, and decomposition techniques, allowing for a new perspective on gender inequalities over the life course. The study contributes by disentangling which specific life course elements are most relevant for pension inequalities and quantifies the role of gender-exclusive life-course experiences for gender disparities.   I find that the duration, timing, order of life-course states, and overall life course complexity matter for pension income inequalities in both pension systems. Specifically, the duration, timing, and order of care work experiences are more crucial pension predictors than employment duration, which has been the primary focus of previous research. The largest parts of the GPGs are attributable to gender-exclusive life course experiences: There is no male counterpart for the female engagement in care work, which is poorly rewarded in pension systems.   Future research and policymakers likely benefit from considering such gender-specific combinations of life-course experiences and applications of the methodological approach to other inequalities. 
Length: 94 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/fbq92_v1
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-021.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-021
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), Netherlands, family life, gender, inequality, life cycle, retirement pensions, working life
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-021
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-021

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia A. Lam
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Katherine Keenan
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Working longer despite poorer health? Inequalities in working and health expectancies at older ages in South Korea
Length: 56 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-022.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-022
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Korea, South, chronic diseases, expectation of working life, life expectancy, retirement
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-022
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-022

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nicole Kapelle
Author-Name: Carla Rowold
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Uncovering what matters: family life course aspects and personal wealth in late working age
Abstract: Background: Capturing the complexity of family life courses as predictors of later-life outcomes like wealth is challenging. Previous research has either (a) assessed a few selective but potentially irrelevant summary indicators, or (b) examined entire life course clusters without identifying specific important aspects within and between them.    Objective: To investigate which family life-course variables—encompassing variables that capture the order, duration, and timing of states and transitions—are key personal wealth predictors for Western Germans aged 50 to 59. And analyse the strength and direction of associations between relevant variables and personal wealth, and whether these differ by gender.     Methods: We used German Socio-economic panel study (SOEP) data and combined feature selection, sequence analysis tools, and regression techniques.    Results: We identified 23 family life-course variables as relevant predictors, with two—the time spent never-married, both without and with children—deemed most relevant. Most family life-course variables were negatively associated with personal wealth and characterised by single parenthood, marital separation or early marital transitions with or without fertility transitions. The prevalence and significance of associations between these variables and personal wealth differed partly across genders. Results highlight the importance of previously concealed family life-course variables for wealth inequalities in late working age.    Contribution: We extend previous research on the nexus between family demography and wealth stratification by using a novel, data-driven approach that more effectively explores family life-course complexities by considering the ‘entire’ universe of variables that describe such life courses and identifying those life-course variables that are relevant wealth predictors.  
Length: 58 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/pucvt_v1
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-023.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-023
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany (Alte Bundesländer), family life, gender, inequality, wealth
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-023
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-023

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Flavia Mazzeo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Nicole Hiekel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Agnese Vitali
Title: Joint pot or separate purses? Unpacking the cohabitation-marriage gap in income pooling across Europe
Length: 46 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-024.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-024
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-024
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-024

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carla Rowold
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Housewives never retire!? Gender biases in popular sample definitions for studies on the elderly
Abstract: While research emphasized the risk of gendered sample selection bias among the elderly decades ago, the empirical literature on old-age inequalities remains largely unaware of it. This research note addresses this issue by investigating gendered sample selectivity for individuals aged 65 or older employing two common sample criteria: self-reported retirement status and pension receipt in countries covered by the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).   Findings show that more than half of older women are excluded when these criteria are applied. Gender selection bias varies widely across countries and is less pronounced in post-socialist or social-democratic welfare states. Visualizing work trajectories by sample status reveals that women with long unpaid care work periods and men with high self-employment, unemployment, and extended education levels are particularly likely to be excluded.   Studies employing such sample criteria risk underestimating gender inequalities in pensions, health, and life satisfaction. The implications are severe for Southern, conservative, and liberal welfare states, and for cross-country comparisons, where sample bias often goes undetected due to its variability across contexts. While this article cannot offer a universal recommendation for sample definitions, it aims to promote less biased sample conceptualizations in studies of the elderly population. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/4kq5e_v1
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-025.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-025
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: bias, gender, life cycle, old age, pension schemes, retirement, retirement pensions, samples
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-025
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-025

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rishabh Tyagi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Employment uncertainty and reproductive decisions in Norway: a register-based study based on plant closures
Abstract: We assess how employment uncertainty due to experiencing plant closure relates to childbearing among women and men in Norway. We use plant (workplace) closure as an indicator of employment uncertainty to infer a causal effect of experiencing employment uncertainty on fertility outcomes. We use population-level register data for 1999-2014 and event history analysis with logit models of first and second births separately. Our results show that for men, first-birth probabilities remained almost the same within three years of experiencing plant closure, while for women, first- and second-birth probabilities decreased a year before the plant closure, possibly due to anticipation effects, but first-birth probabilities increased by three percentage points in the year of the closure, possibly due to declining opportunity costs. Similarly, for women experiencing plant closure, second-birth probabilities increased by two percentage points in the year of closure compared to the year before closure. The fertility response to experiencing plant closure remained the same for men before (1999-2008) and after the economic crisis (2009-2014). For women, first-birth probabilities increased 1.2 percentage points within three years of the closure, though this increase declined slightly to 0.8 percentage points after the recession period. We conclude that in a setting with high social security levels, experiencing plant closure does not affect men's fertility outcomes (first or second birth), while it increases women’s probabilities of having children within three years of the closure. We find no significant differences in the number of children at age 49 between those who did and did not experience plant closure. Therefore, we conclude that plant closure had a slightly positive tempo effect on women’s fertility in the years around the closure, but did not have a significant quantum effect on women's fertility. This could be because the scarring (negative long-term) effects of experiencing plant closure on fertility dissipated after a few years due to Norway’s generous welfare benefits, and because fertility readjusted after the shock. Thus, workers experiencing plant closure in Norway might have seen it as an opportunity to realise their childbearing ideals over the shorter term and at younger ages. 
Length: 45 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-026.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-026
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway, economic demography, fertility
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-026
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-026

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rishabh Tyagi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peter Eibich
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vegard Skirbekk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gender norms and partnership dissolution following involuntary job loss in Germany
Abstract: We study the impact of job loss on the risk of separation among German couples. We focus on job losses due to plant closures and involuntary dismissals as a source of variation that is likely to be independent of other individual risk factors for partnership dissolution. We use panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (1986–2019) for persons aged 20-65. We use event study design and propensity score matching combined with the difference-in-differences approach to analyse the effects of involuntary job loss on the likelihood of divorce or separation within three years. First, in our event study design, we find an increase in the probability of union dissolution in the year following job loss by around two percentage points (ppts). In our matching design combined with the difference-in-differences approach, union dissolution risk increases by 2.12 ppts for our treatment group compared to our control group within three years of the job loss. This increase in union dissolution risk is slightly higher in the case of male job loss (2.23 ppts) than for job loss among women (1.64 ppts) over three years compared to those not exposed to involuntary job loss. We analyse differences between East and West Germany and between migrants from different countries of origin to examine the role of gender norms. Gender norms in the place of origin do not seem to explain the increased union dissolution risk. However, the individual-level gender norms based on males’ share of home production activities in the couple over the years show an increased risk of union dissolution for the traditional half and no effect for the liberal half of the men losing their jobs. The effect of involuntary job loss on union dissolution risk is mediated by declining family life satisfaction, males’ share of hours spent on home production and lower household income for the person experiencing involuntary job loss. 
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-027.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-027
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, dismissal, division of labor, divorce, economic demography
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-027
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-027

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rasmus Mannerström
Author-Name: Katariina Salmela-Aro
Title: Identity and marriage: a bidirectional approach based on evidence from Finland
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-028.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-028
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-028
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-028

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Timothy Riffe
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Rustam Tursun-Zade
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sergi Trias Llimós
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Arriaga meets Kitagawa: life expectancy decomposition with population subgroups
Length: 23 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-029.pdf
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://osf.io/xnmv6/?view_only=047c4f8fe11c478a9aa71e8993b73e22
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-029
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, mathematical demography, mortality, population composition
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-029
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-029

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nathan Robbins
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Is “being there” enough? Father’s instrumental support and union dissolution among disadvantaged families
Abstract: Objective: The objective of this paper is to explore the relationship between financial provision, instrumental support and union dissolution among low-income men – particularly whether men can compensate for lower income and employment levels through increased presence and availability in the home.   Background: In recent years, disadvantaged fathers have expressed a determination to not only provide financially for their families, but to also “be there” for them, giving support in other instrumental ways. Little is known about the relationship between these two types of provision and the relationship they have in stabilizing or dissolving unions.   Method: Using five waves (nine years) of data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Survey (FFCWS, n = 3239), I conduct discrete-time event-history analysis to assess the probability of union dissolution among cohabiting and married couples based in relation to levels of income, division of paid labor, and instrumental support.   Results: Instrumental support is highly protective against union dissolution. Odds of union dissolution were 62% lower for those with high levels of instrumental support, with a stronger association seen among married couples than cohabiting couples.   Conclusion: Results suggest that no level of instrumental support can completely compensate for lower incomes and employment levels among disadvantaged fathers: both financial and instrumental support are important. 
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-030.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-030
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, dissolution of marriage, division of labor, end of union, father, household income
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-030
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-030

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nathan Robbins
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Time and money: parental leave generosity and first-time parents’ uptake of leave across 23 European countries
Abstract: As couples transition into parenthood, they face many decisions regarding the division of paid and unpaid labor. A key factor in navigating these divisions is whether – and for how long – each partner takes paid parental leave. Previous studies have shown that more generous leave policies lead, in general, to more uptake of leave, but little data exists on the association between leave generosity at the household level. This study assesses the association between paid parental leave generosity on the leave-taking behavior of new parents across 23 European countries, using data from the 2018 European Union Labor Force Survey. I examine how the two key leave policy levers, time (the number of job-protected weeks available) and money (the wage-replacement rate paid), influence whether first-time parents take leave and for how long, and whether these results differ across income groups. Using multilevel regression analysis on a sample of n = 16,161 couples, I assess the association between time, money, and a measure account for both together. Results indicate a positive relationship between generosity and uptake among both mothers and fathers, but with outcomes twice as large for fathers. I also find differences in results across income groups. The findings highlight the role of paid parental leave in promoting gender equality in household labor division, and the need. The study suggests that enhancing leave policies, especially for fathers, could encourage a more equitable sharing of parental leave and, consequently, the division of paid and unpaid labor. 
Length: 36 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-031.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-031
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: European Union, United Kingdom, division of labor, family policies, parenthood
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-031
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-031

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Su Y. Jang
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Oksuzyan
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Frank J. van Lenthe
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Living arrangements and chronic disease accumulation among native-born and immigrant older adults in Europe
Length: 57 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-032.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-032
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-032
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-032

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maria Gueltzow
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hannu Lahtinen
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Do genetics shape mental health trajectories around partnership transitions?
Abstract: While the existing literature on the interplay between partnership dynamics and mental health has explored various moderating environmental factors, the influence of genetic propensity remains understudied. This is surprising due to the high share of variation in mental health that can be explained by genes. Investigating whether people with different genetic predispositions react differently to partnership transitions could add substantial knowledge to the research on partnership dynamics and mental health. Therefore, this study explores to what extent genetic propensity for depression impacts antidepressant (AD) purchasing up to five years before and five years after union formation and dissolution. It draws on two partly competing gene-environment interaction models: the diathesis stress model, which assumes that individuals with a greater genetic propensity for depression are more affected by union dissolution; and the differential susceptibility model, which assumes a stronger impact of union dissolution as well as union formation on these individuals. We follow the genotyped sample of the FINRISK rounds 1992–2012 and the Health 2000 and 2011 surveys with linkage to Finnish register data from 1997 to 2019. We use individual fixed effects models, analyzing individuals who have experienced union formation (N=7,888) or union dissolution (N=7,375). The results suggest that only women with different genetic endowments had different mental health reactions following a union formation. More specifically, only women with high genetic propensity for depression showed an increase in AD purchasing probability following union formation. The results did not show any gene-environment interaction following union dissolution. However, in the period three to five years before a union dissolution, individuals with high genetic propensity for depression were particularly vulnerable, as the changes in AD purchasing probability were larger for them than for the group with low genetic propensity. These findings partly support the diathesis stress model. 
Length: 43 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-033.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-033
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, cohabitation, end of union, family dynamics, genetics, mental depression, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-033
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-033

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Maria C. Magnus
Author-Name: Andreas Ernst
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Multiple births mortality by maternal age at birth: a within-family analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data on 42 low-income countries
Abstract: Background: Existing evidence suggests that children from multiple-births experience lower infant mortality with advanced maternal age, in contrast to what is observed for singletons. The role of unmeasured confounding, and whether this observation is also present in low-income countries where the infant mortality is higher than in Western countries, remain unknown.   Methods: Using the Demographic Health Surveys data of over 6 million live births reported from 42 low-income countries, we applied mother fixed-effects in linear probability models with and without parity.   Results: The infant mortality (as well as neonatal mortality) was highest among the twin offspring of younger mothers. Compared to infants of mothers age 24-25 at delivery, the infant mortality was highest (0.14 [0.13, 0.15]) among offspring of mothers younger than 18 years of age, and declined by around 0.01 until a mother reaches her late 30s. The overall pattern was robust to adjustment for parity to the model and estimation without mother fixed-effects. Similar patterns hold in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and across different developmental settings.     Conclusions: We observed a lower infant mortality among children from multiple births when the mothers were in the 30s compared to when mothers are in the mid-20s or younger also in low-income countries. Unlike previous findings, the lower mortality associated with advanced maternal age is visible from the mid-20s. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-034.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-034
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-034
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-034

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Flatø
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jonas Minet  Kinge
Author-Name: Maria C. Magnus
Author-Name: Cecilia  Ramlau-Hansen
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The changing social gradient in age at menarche across cohorts and generations in Norway
Abstract: Age at menarche (AAM) is an important milestone in women's life-courses. A secular decline in AAM has raised concerns, as early AAM has been associated with adverse health and social outcomes. Still, it remains unclear whether the decline differs by socio-economic position (SEP) and drivers of such differences. Using data from 122,826 Norwegian women born 1960-2008 whose childhood SEP was assessed from registers, we document a declining trend and a growing positive social gradient in AAM. We further used a balanced panel of 10,896 mother-daughter dyads in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) to decompose the inter-generational decline in AAM within each income quintile into within-family and between-family components. Mean AAM declined by 0.44 years in the lowest quintile compared to 0.24 years in the highest quintile, but there was no systematic difference between the quintiles in the within-family component. This suggests that factors operating through childhood conditions to causally affect AAM have similar impacts across SEPs. Rather, we find earlier AAM among mothers whose children grow up in a low SEP than for mothers who themselves had low SEP during childhood, which suggests that maternal selection is the main mechanism for the emerging gradient. 
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-035.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-035
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway, age at menarche, intergenerational social mobility, puberty, socio-economic conditions
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-035
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-035

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Carla Rowold
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joan E. Madia
Title: Demographic transitions and lifestyle factors: quantifying the burden of smoking-attributable diseases on Germany's healthcare system
Abstract: This study focuses on the long-term effects of the Baby Boomers' (born between 1960 and 1979) historical smoking prevalence in Germany. It emphasizes the linkage to an anticipated increase in smoking-attributable diseases and corresponding healthcare costs by 2035. Our analysis leverages data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the Mikrozensus, and the Federal Health Report, along with treatment costs, to document the persistently high smoking rates among this cohort. In addition, it also projects the ensuing economic burden on healthcare from conditions such as COPD and lung cancer. Highlighting the necessity for targeted public health interventions aimed at smoking cessation and lifestyle modifications, this study draws on UK strategies, including support for quitting. We suggest Germany could adopt similar measures to address these challenges effectively. These insights aim to guide policymakers in developing targeted interventions to reduce the future healthcare burden. We estimate smoking attributable healthcare costs to rise by 56% until 2035 totaling €193 billion over the period. Although our projections are conservative compared to other literature, incorporating data from Effertz (2019) suggests that annual costs could skyrocket to as much as €46 billion. Adequate strategies could reduce these costs. 
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-036.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-036
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, demographic ageing, diseases, health, life styles, public health, smoking
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-036
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-036

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Elizabeth M. Jacobs
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Tom Theile
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Daniela Perrotta
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Xinyi Zhao
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Athina Anastasiadou
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Global gender gaps in the international migration of professionals on LinkedIn
Abstract: This paper examines gender differentials in the international migration of professionals, and how this varies by country, industry, age, and years of experience. We leverage data from LinkedIn, the largest professional networking website, to construct immigrant and emigrant Gender Gap Indexes (iGGI and eGGI). These indexes measure inflows and openness to international relocation. The findings indicate that, among LinkedIn users, the global population of immigrant professionals is at gender parity. The professional migrant population is majority-female in key destination countries like the U.S., U.K., Australia and France, as well as emerging destination countries like South Korea and Singapore. Our results show that the mobility of women migrants is driven by industries like finance, healthcare and real estate. We find evidence of positive selection among women migrant professionals in key destination countries and industries. Our results indicate that men are more open to international relocation than women, suggesting that men express higher migration aspirations, but men and women have similar rates of observed mobility. The paper makes novel contributions to the literature on migration aspirations, behavior and selectivity. Methodologically, we develop a new data set and appropriate measures to complement existing sources to study professional migration across a wide range of countries. 
Length: 39 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-037.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-037
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-037
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-037

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alessandra De Rose
Author-Name: Filomena Racioppi
Title: Volunteering during early retirement reduces depression
Abstract: As individuals age, they often face deteriorating health and significant lifestyle changes, including retirement. While retirement can alter individuals' economic and social roles, potentially increasing the risk of depression, involvement in volunteer activities has been found to be beneficial for retirees. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we apply the parametric g-formula to simulate an intervention aimed at estimating the effect of volunteering on depression and ist heterogeneity, and to assess the mediating role of limitations in activities of daily living. Our results show that engagement in volunteering reduces the probability of depression by approximately 5% in the whole population, with larger gains among early retirees. The results hold irrespective of gender, and indicate that the benefits are greater for women and racial minorities. Our findings show that about 10% of the positive impact of volunteering on depression operates via a reduction in the likelihood of experiencing limitations in activities of daily living. Therefore, we conclude that the benefits of volunteering extend to improving the overall health of both individuals and the population. Our simulated intervention targeting early retirees may be a viable public health strategy for protecting individuals against depression, while also enabling them to contribute to the public good.  
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-038.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-038
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: USA, disability, mental depression, retirement, simulation, voluntary workers
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-038
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-038

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Moritz Oberndorfer
Author-Name: Juha Luukkonen
Author-Name: Hanna M. Remes
Author-Name: Thomas Waldhör
Author-Name: Lizbeth Burgos Ochoa
Author-Name: Marta Rado
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jasper V. Been
Author-Name: Enny S. Paixao
Author-Name: Ila R. Falcão
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The COVID-19 pandemic changed the socioeconomic composition of parents: a register-based study 
of 76.5 million live births in 12 countries
Length: 122 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-039.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-039
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, live births, parents, population composition
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-039
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-039

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Henrik-Alexander Schubert
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Vegard Skirbekk
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing
Abstract: The impact of religion on family formation pattern and fertility is widely assumed to be of modest relevance in contemporary Western contexts. We argue that religious affiliation continues to play a significant role in social processes, and that secularization remains a driver of demographic trends. We examine the relationship between secularization and fertility decline in Finland from an individual and a couple perspective, amid a broader trend of declining birth rates in Western countries. We show that secularization can exert a self-reinforcing negative effect on fertility through an interplay of declining church membership, changing couple dynamics, and childbearing of religiously mixed and homogeneous couples. Using data from the Finnish administrative registers covering the period from 1995 to 2019, we are able to identify religious affiliation, as indicated by church tax payment in the secularized context of Finland. The analysis unfolds in two parts: first, we perform a demographic examination of the fertility trends of the religiously affiliated and unaffiliated groups; and, second, we use a dyadic perspective to explore the relationships between religious affiliation, couple composition, and the probability of having a first child. We conclude that the accelerated decline in church membership has contributed to the recent fertility decline. 
Length: 65 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-040.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-040
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, Finland, fertility decline, fertility determinants, fertility trends, religious affiliation
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-040
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-040

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mariia Vasiakina
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: From efficiency to illness: do highly automatable jobs take a toll on health in Germany?
Abstract: Automation transforms work at a rapid pace, with gradually increasing shares of the workforce being at risk of replacement by machines. However, little is known about how this risk is affecting workers. In this study, we investigate the impact of exposure to a high risk of automation at work on the subjective (self-reported health, anxiety, and health satisfaction) and objective (healthcare use and sickness absence) health outcomes of workers in Germany. We base our analysis on survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and administrative data from the Occupational Panel for Germany (2013-2018). Employing panel regression, we demonstrate that for workers, exposure to a high risk of automation at the occupational level is associated with lower self-reported health and health satisfaction, increased sickness absence, and, depending on how the risk is measured, anxiety. No effect on healthcare use is found. Our heterogeneity analysis provides evidence that none of the analyzed demographic and occupational groups is disproportionally affected by high automation risk. We also conduct several robustness checks (i.e., alternative model specifications and risk measures with different thresholds), with the results remaining largely consistent with our main findings. 
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2024
File-URL: https://osf.io/kv684/
File-Format: text/html
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-041.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2024-041
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, automation, health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-041
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-041

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Economic uncertainty and men’s fertility: analysing the 2010s fertility decline in Finland by field of education and employment characteristics
Abstract: In the Nordic countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell sharply in the 2010s, and increasing disparities in childbearing outcomes across different levels and fields of education have been documented in previous research. However, the role of economic uncertainty in shaping these fertility trends is not well understood. This study examines the male fertility decline in Finland during the 2010s, focusing on how fertility levels and trends vary by field of education and the economic uncertainty associated with these fields. Using full population register data, the analysis explores total fertility rates (TFR) and the expected shares of men having a first birth (TFRp1) across 122 detailed education groups. We find that fertility declines were stronger in fields with initially lower fertility levels, such as ICT, arts, and humanities, and weaker in fields like health, teaching, and agriculture. Weighted linear regression was used to analyse the association between characteristics reflecting uncertainty and the fertility decline. Fields with higher unemployment, lower income, and lower occupational match saw sharper fertility declines. Additionally, as unemployment decreased and income grew during the 2010s, fertility declines were less pronounced in fields that experienced stronger improvements in these areas. The predictive power of the uncertainty variables increased in the 2010s. The uncertainty model accounted for approximately half of the TFR decline and two-thirds of the TFRp1 decline across different fields. The study highlights the growing disparities in fertility patterns by educational field, underlining the increasing importance of economic security in shaping men’s fertility. Keywords: men’s fertility, Finland, unemployment, income, occupational match, occupation specificity 
Length: 38 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-001.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-001
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, fertility, income, men, unemployment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-001
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-001

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Zachary Van Winkle
Title: The role of family complexity in mental and physical health in mid-adulthood
Abstract: Objective: This study examines the association between accumulated family complexity and mental and physical health in mid-adulthood, with a focus on gender differences.   Background: While research on family and health often centers on the health effects of specific family transitions, the life course health development model emphasizes the cumulative influence of life experiences on health. Complex family trajectories, particularly those including episodes of singlehood or single parenthood, may have lasting implications for mental and physical health.   Method: Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, differently weighted sequence complexity indices were developed to capture the number and the unpredictability of transitions in partnership and parenthood trajectories from ages 18 to 55.   Results: Family complexity is negatively associated with both women’s and men’s mental and physical health, but findings differ based on the specification of family complexity. Women’s physical health appears to be particularly affected by the accumulation of family complexity following a separation involving children, whereas men’s mental and physical health seem to be more affected by accumulated family complexity after any separation.   Conclusion: By uncovering substantial gender differences in patterns of associations between family complexity and health, this study highlights the importance of accounting for gender-specific dynamics in studies of accumulated family complexity. Our finding that long-term health disadvantages are associated with family complexity suggests that entire life course trajectories should be considered and quantified when examining long-term health outcomes. 
Length: 60 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-002.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-002
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: United Kingdom
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-002
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-002

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Saroja Adhikari
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: The future of grandparenthood in South Asia: the role of population aging and educational expansion
Abstract: Grandparents are an integral part of family support systems, serving as both providers and consumers of instrumental, financial, and emotional care. They also play a central role in transmitting cultural and financial capital to their grandchildren. Grandparenting, which refers to the care, support, and engagement grandparents provide to their grandchildren, is a socially expected phenomenon in South Asia. Grandparents are often expected to play active caregiving roles and typically co-reside with their grandchildren. While previous research has explored grandparenting across various socioeconomic groups, little is known about how evolving sociodemographic trends might impact grandparenthood in the future. Using data from the United Nations and the Wittgenstein Center for Global Human Capital, we explore how national-level sociodemographic changes are expected to affect the number of living grandparents per grandchild, as well as the age, sex, and educational profiles of grandparents across South Asia. We project that grandparental availability will increase, with grandparents becoming older and better educated. Specifically, the average age of grandparents in South Asia is expected to rise by six to eight years from 2024 to 2100, and the number with post-secondary education will increase significantly. These shifts are likely to affect the balance of care exchanged between generations, with potential benefits and challenges for grandparents, parents, and grandchildren. 
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-003.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-003
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Asia, ageing, child care, demographic transition, education
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-003
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-003

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aliakbar Akbaritabar
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: José Ignacio Carrasco Armijo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Athina Anastasiadou
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Gender dynamics in international migration and social networks
Abstract: Reviews of migration theories start from more classical and deterministic views and follow with more recent developments that consider networks, cumulative causation, planned behaviour, agency, and aspiration/capability frameworks. One of the less discussed dimensions is gender differences in how one’s network affects their migration decision before, during, and after migration. In this chapter, we intend to provide an overview and critically delve into the literature discussing the network’s effect on international migration and show the underexplored dimension of gender differences. The chapter has an additional focus on a subset of the highly-skilled population i.e., the case of migration of scholars, and is concluded by avenues for future research. 
Length: 14 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-004.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-004
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Global, World, computational demography, computational social science, gender, internal migration, international migration, network, sex, social network
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-004
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-004

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rishabh Tyagi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj
Author-Name: Alexi Gugushvili
Title: Adult children’s unemployment and parental mental health in India: social and economic moderators
Abstract: This study explores the relationship between adult children's unemployment and parental mental health. Given India's vast inequalities in social capital and income, we examine their moderating effects on this relationship. We use data from the Longitudinal Ageing Survey of India, including 73,396 individuals aged 45 and above. We consider exposure to the unemployment of adult children as a treatment and measure parental risk of depression using the CES-D score, with respondents reporting four or more symptoms out of 10 considered “depressed”. We employ inverse probability weighting based on the logistic regression model to form a pseudo-control group, accounting for the confounding demographic and socio-economic factors. Our findings show a 3.11 percentage point (ppt) increase in absolute terms (and a 12.30% relative increase) in the probability of parental depression associated with adult children's unemployment. Moderation analyses reveal that among older adults with high social participation, there is no increase in their risk of depression following their children's unemployment. Similarly, among older adults residing in low and medium-income inequality states, the negative consequences of their children's unemployment are weaker. Overall, this research concludes that while adult children’s unemployment is associated with an increased risk of parental depression, higher social participation and residing in low or medium-income inequality states have protective effects on older adults’ mental health following their children's unemployment. Governments may consider expanding labour market policies supporting youth labour market entry as a means to improve not only the employability of younger individuals, but also the well-being of older generations.  
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-005.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-005
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: India, inequality, mental health, social capital, unemployment
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-005
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-005

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Aapo Hiilamo
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Åsmund  Hermansen
Title: Financial strain in Norway: the lifetime risk of and expected time spent in payment problems
Abstract: While some 10% of adults in Europe report having payment problems, that is, not being able to meet their financial commitments over a prolonged period, how many people experience payment problems at some point in their lives, and how long these payment problems last, remain unknown. We investigated the determinants of the lifetime risks and expectancies of payment problems in Norway, the country with the highest household debt burden among the OECD countries. We derived geographic, demographic, socio-economic, and health variables from national registers and data on monthly payment problems from the national debt collection agency for the 2015-2019 period. We analysed these data in a discrete multistate modelling framework, and calculated the lifetime risk of experiencing payment problems, the expected time spent in payment problems, and total life expectancy. These metrics were calculated for synthetic cohorts who experienced the current risk of payment problems and mortality throughout their life course. Some 39% of the cohort members experienced payment problems at least once during their life course, with the share being higher among men. The life expectancy with payment problems at age 18 was 2.1 years, which corresponded to 3% of the total life expectancy. Across subgroups defined by the intersections of low education, sex, record of psychiatric diagnosis, and area-level income, the longer the payment problem expectancy these groups had, the shorter their total life expectancy was. These findings demonstrate that payment problems are often chronic, and have the same upstream determinants as early mortality.  
Length: 30 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-006.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-006
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Norway, debt, inequality, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-006
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-006

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Steffen Peters
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kieron J. Barclay
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Monika A. Mynarska
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Consistent patterns across birth parities? Psychological measures and birth parity transitions among Swedish men
Length: 71 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-007.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-007
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-007
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-007

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Mengyao Wu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: D. Susie Lee
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Alberto del Rey Poveda
Title: Bridging the gap? The moderating role of non-parental childcare use in the gap in maternal employment between immigrants and non-immigrants
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-008.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-008
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Spain, child care, family, female employment, immigration
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-008
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-008

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Donata Stonkute
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Angelo Lorenti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Jo M. Hale
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Institutional contexts and cognitive health inequalities: an analysis of educational gradients and gender differences in cognitive health expectancy in Europe
Abstract: Variations in the accumulation and decline of cognitive reserve across different cultural and institutional contexts, as well as selective survival processes that influence which population groups remain at risk for cognitive impairment, may contribute to the heterogeneity of educational disparities in cognitive health across European countries and between genders. We explore how educational disparities in Cognitive Health Expectancies (CHE) for men and women vary across different contextual settings in Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Applying multivariate life table approach and the Sullivan methods to the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data, we estimated CHE by gender and education at age 50 and the proportion of CHE relative to remaining life expectancy, across 10 European countries. We found that educational inequalities in cognitive health are significantly influenced by national context, with some of the most pronounced effects in CEE countries, particularly for women. Despite higher overall educational attainment in CEE countries, the benefits typically associated with education did not translate equally across groups. The key divergence, which is most pronounced for women, occurs among those with low educational attainment, who appear to be highly disadvantaged. Substantially smaller disparities, such as observed in Northern European countries, suggest untapped potential for mitigating educational inequalities in cognitive ageing.  
Length: 33 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-009.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-009
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-009
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-009

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist
Author-Name: Jessica Nisén
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Niina  Metsä-Simola
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Different mental health disorders and childlessness: the importance of partnership status
Abstract: Mental health problems are increasing, while childlessness is becoming more common. We examine how mental health disorders (MHD) of varying prevalence, severity, and symptoms (common, severe, and behavioural and addiction-related disorders) are related to childlessness, and whether these associations are explained by partnerships and the partner’s mental health.   We use Finnish total population register data on cohorts born between 1977 and 1980 and follow individuals from the age of 18 to 39. We estimate discrete-time event history models for the annual likelihood of having a child for men and women, with MHDs, co-residential partnership, and the partner’s MHDs as the main explanatory variables. We measure MHD by using both diagnose information (ICD-10 codes) from the special health care registers and medication information (ATC-codes).   All types of MHDs predicted lower likelihood of having a child, the annual probability being 0.8–1.3%-points lower for women and 1.0–1.8 %-points for men in age-controlled models. The strongest association was observed for severe mental disorders. Co-residential partnerships explained part of the difference between those with and without MHD (for any MHD 13% for women and 36% for men compared to age-controlled model). When both partners have an MHD, the likelihood for childlessness was higher compared to partners where only one of the partners had an MHD.   We conclude that partnerships and partner’s mental health are important factors in explaining the relationship between mental health disorders and childlessness, particularly among men.   Keywords: mental health, childlessness, partnerships, partner, fertility 
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-010.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-010
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, mental health
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-010
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-010

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sanny Boy Domingo Afable
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Megan Evans
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Kaarina Korhonen
Author-Name: Yana C. Vierboom
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Hill Kulu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Are ageing parents and adult children living farther apart? Decomposing trends in intergenerational distance and co-residence in Finland (2003-2017)
Abstract: Closer distance between parents and their children facilitates intergenerational contact and exchanges of support in later life. There are mixed narratives and evidence regarding the divergence—or convergence—of intergenerational proximity in ageing societies. In this study, we examine the trends and structural drivers of intergenerational distance and co-residence in a rapidly ageing high-income society. We analyse register data from Finland, a country commonly characterised by weak family ties and a strong social welfare system. Using fine-scale geographic units and real-world navigation data to compute travel times, we examine the proximity of parents aged 60-69 to their children aged 18+ from 2003 to 2017, specifically analysing trends in distance and co-residence between fathers and sons, fathers and daughters, mothers and sons, and mothers and daughters. We then decompose the contribution of changing sociodemographic composition of the population on changes in these outcomes. We find that while co-residence is low (10% with sons and 5% with daughters in 2017), more than half of Finnish parents live within 30 minutes by car journey to their nearest, non-coresident child, with parents living 5 minutes farther away from their daughters than their sons. From 2003 to 2017, the average distance to the nearest, non-coresident child increased by 10% to 19% or 2-5 minutes, with father-daughter distance showing the greatest increase. While this suggests that ageing parents and adult children are living farther apart, we find that compositional changes—including educational expansion and increased divorce rates among parents, as well as the decline in co-residence with sons—underlie this geographic divergence. 
Length: 67 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-011.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-011
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, ageing, human geography, residential mobility, spatial distance
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-011
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-011

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Citlali Trigos-Raczkowski
Author-Name: Kelsey Q. Wright
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Joonas Pitkänen
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Heta Moustgaard
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: First formal romantic unions among 1<sup>st</sup>, 2<sup>nd</sup>, and 2.5 generations of immigrant women in Finland
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-012.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-012
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, Finland, cohabitation, first marriage, immigrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-012
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-012

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Isabella Marinetti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Dmitri A. Jdanov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Domantas Jasilionis
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Marilia R. Nepomuceno
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Fanny Janssen
Title: Seasonal mortality and its impact on spatial inequality in life expectancy across Italy
Abstract: Seasonal mortality fluctuations significantly affect national life expectancy, yet their role in regional inequalities remains underexplored. Understanding this is crucial for targeted health policies aimed at reducing spatial mortality differences. We quantify the impact of seasonal excess mortality on regional life expectancy levels (e0) and inequalities in Italy. Using monthly mortality data from the Italian National Statistical Institute by region (N = 20), sex and age between 2005-2019, we assessed e0 losses due to seasonality by comparing observed mortality with minimum achievable levels. Seasonal effects on inequalities in e0 were quantified by comparing standard deviations with and without excess seasonal mortality and examined regional contributions using decomposition analysis. Eliminating seasonal excess mortality reduced regional e0 differences by 1.4 years (1.36-1.70) on average for both sexes. This effect was most pronounced in southern and insular regions (Campania and Sicilia), especially for winter-related excess mortality. Overall, removing winter excess mortality led to an average of 0.6 years (7.5%) decline in regional inequality. However, during the years with high mortality burdens (2005 and 2015), seasonality contributed to spatial mortality inequality by 10% and 5.2%, respectively. The regional contributions to e0 inequality revealed that Campania and Sicilia also had the strongest role in increasing spatial mortality variation throughout the period. The pronounced regional inequalities in e0 losses due to seasonal excess mortality contributed significantly to shaping regional e0 variation in Italy, mostly due to different impacts of winter mortality within the country. 
Length: 26 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-013.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-013
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-013
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-013

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Philipp Dierker
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mine Kühn
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Sanna Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Enduring links: mental health effects of ex-partner’s life events among separated parents
Abstract: Objective: This study examines whether life events of ex-partners with a shared child affect each other’s mental health.   Background: While prior research has documented interdependencies within intact families, such as between parents and children or within couples, we extend the linked lives concept to separated parents. We argue that parents’ lives remain interdependent even after separation, unlike separations between partners without children. Accordingly, life events experienced by the ex-partner (re-partnering, separation, childbirth, cancer diagnosis, death, and parental death) could affect an individual’s mental health.   Method: Using Finnish register data and panel data methods (fixed effects, fixed effects with individual slopes, and dynamic difference-in-difference models), we analyze families in which parents separated while their firstborn was a minor. Mental health is operationalized by psychotropic medication purchasing.   Results: Positive life events of the ex-partner, such as re-partnering and childbirth, reduce the probability of the other ex-partner purchasing psychotropic medication. Conversely, negative life events, including the ex-partner’s cancer diagnosis and death, increase this probability, with stronger effects observed for women. More distant life events, such as the ex-partner’s separation or their parent’s death, show no consistent associations.   Conclusion: These findings support the presence of enduring links among separated parents. However, the effects of life events diminish with generational distance and after new partnerships are formed. Current partners’ life events have a stronger impact than those of ex-partners throughout.  
Length: 53 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-014.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-014
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, end of union, family dynamics, life span, mental health, parents
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-014
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-014

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Songyun Shi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Silvia Loi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Loneliness as a pathway to immigrant health decline: a longitudinal mediation analysis in Germany
Abstract: Objectives   Despite often having better health at arrival, and at young ages, there is evidence that immigrants age at a faster pace than non-immigrants over the life course. One potential mediator in the relationship between migration background and health deterioration is loneliness. This study examines the direct impact of migration-related factors on mental and physical health trajectories, as well as their indirect effects through loneliness in the German context.   Methods   Using data from the 2012–2020 German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we apply a parallel process latent growth curve model (PPM) with mediation analysis to examine the long-term impact of migration background and age at migration on physical and mental health trajectories. We also explore the mediating role of loneliness in this relationship. The analysis is stratified by gender.   Results   Loneliness fully mediates the relationship between migration background and mental health, as immigrants are more likely to experience loneliness, which in turn leads to worse mental health. Immigrants who moved to Germany after age 18 are more likely to experience loneliness, resulting in poorer mental health. This mechanism is particularly pronounced among women.   Discussion   Loneliness contributes to mental health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. Women who migrated after age 18 are particularly vulnerable. This study presents an innovative approach to examining the mechanisms behind health disparities by migration background. Interventions targeted at reducing loneliness may help to reduce health disparities between immigrants and non-immigrants. 
Length: 44 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-015.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-015
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Germany, longitudinal analysis, mental health, migrants
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-015
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-015

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Xianhua Zai
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Peng Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Luca Dei Bardi
Author-Name: Kaarina Korhonen
Author-Name: Margherita Moretti
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Disparities in cancer stage at diagnosis, treatment, and mortality across socioeconomic groups in Finland
Abstract: Background: Socioeconomic inequalities exist in each cancer-related aspect globally, but the evidences were relatively fragmented and unsystematic, even within high-income countries with more in-depth data. We aim to assess disparities in cancer stage at diagnosis, treatment, and mortality by socioeconomic status (SES) in Finland to assess inequalities in the whole cancer journey.   Methods: All Finnish residents aged 30 years or older and newly diagnosed with cancer between 2000 and 2020 were included in this study, and information including date of diagnosis, cancer type, stage, and treatments, was extracted from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Mortality, SES (education and income) and other demographic characteristics was extracted from the Population Register. Odds ratios (OR) of diagnosed with early stage or later stage, and receiving specific treatment or not across SES groups were estimated using adjusted logistic regression models. The differences of mortality in low and high SES groups were shown in hazard ratios (HR) estimated using adjusted Cox models.   Finding: Totally 377,986 Finnish residents were newly diagnosed with cancer (191,341 men and 186,645 women) between 2000 and 2020. Systematic disparities were observed in stage at diagnosis, treatment and mortality in overall cancers and subtypes of cancers, such as prostate, breast, melanoma, and uterine cancer. Patients with high education had 10–16% higher probabilities of being diagnosed with early-stage cancer than people with low education for overall cancer types in both men (OR=1.14, 95% CI=1.11–1.16) and women (OR=1.11, 95% CI=1.10–1.13). Patients with high education had 12–18% higher probabilities to receive surgery (men: OR=1.18, 95% CI=1.15–1.20; women: OR=1.18, 95% CI=1.15–1.21) comparing with patients with low education. Patients with high education had consistently around 20% lower mortality comparing to patients with low education for overall cancers (men: HR=0.79, 95% CI=0.77–0.81; women: HR=0.80, 95% CI=0.78–0.82). Similar patterns were observed across groups with different levels of income.   Conclusions: Systematic disparities throughout the cancer journey exist across SES groups in Finland, with low SES people often disadvantaged in cancer stage at diagnosis, treatment, and mortality. 
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-016.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-016
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Finland, adult mortality, education, income
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-016
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-016

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Alessandro Feraldi
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Christian Dudel
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Title: Smoking and the length of working life: an examination using the U.S. health and retirement study

Length: 37 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-017.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-017
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-017
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-017

Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Vinod Joseph Kannankeril Joseph
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Risto Conte Keivabu
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Raya Muttarak
Author-Name: Emilio Zagheni
Author-Workplace-Name: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Author-Name: Stefano Mazzuco
Title: Harvesting effect and extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy
Abstract: It is well-established that deaths peak in winter and show throughs in summer. However, it remains unclear how mortality patterns will unfold as the climate warms, bringing fewer cold days and more hot days. One concern is “harvesting,” where a short-term surge in deaths among the most vulnerable people is then followed by a period with fewer deaths than usual because those individuals would have died soon anyway. Under global warming, it is possible that higher mortality rates in summer will result not only from an increase in extreme heat events but also from a seasonal shift in excess deaths that would have previously occurred in winter. Combining mortality data from the Italian Statistical Office with temperature data from the Copernicus Data Store for Italy at the provincial level from 2011 to 2019, we employ Poisson regression models to estimate the effects of temperature extremes on mortality among individuals aged 60 and above. The results reveal that temperatures outside the comfort zone, both lower and higher, are associated with increased monthly mortality rates, with the strongest effects seen in the most extreme temperature ranges. We find evidence of a harvesting effect, particularly for moderately warm days (≥ 85th to  
Length: 50 pages
Creation-Date: 2025
File-URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-018.pdf
File-Format: text/html
Number: WP-2025-018
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Italy, climate, mortality
DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-018
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-018