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MPIDR Working Paper

Cohort postponement and period measures

Goldstein, J. R., Cassidy, T.

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2010-015, 17 Seiten (Februar 2010).
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

Abstract

We introduce a new class of models in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. We show how this model fits into a general framework of period and cohort postponement that includes the existing models in the literature, notably those of Bongaarts and Feeney and Kohler and Philipov. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo-adjusted measure of period total fertility in the absence of observed shifts. Simulation reveals that when postponement is governed by cohorts, the cohort-based indicator outperforms the Bongaarts and Feeney model that is now in widespread use. The cohort-based model is applied to fertility in several modern populations.

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