MPIDR Working Paper

Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy

Billari, F. C., Manfredi, P., Valentini, A.

MPIDR Working Paper WP-1999-014 (November 1999).
Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

This working paper has now been published. It is available at Mathematical Population Studies, 9 (1): 33-63


We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one-sex, stable population model to evaluate structural and long-term effects of changes in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba (1996) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on reproduction and on the age structure of the population. (AUTHORS)