LabTalk with Amanda Martins de Almeida, Gabriel Borges, and César Marques

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, June 25, 2024

1:00 PM: Amanda Martins de Almeida - A Kinship Perspective on Shared Lifetime and Years of Life Lost by Socioeconomic Status

Individuals spend time with their relatives over the life course. For example, the years that an individual overlaps with the mother begin to count when the individual is born and end when either the individual or the mother dies. In the literature, this is called "intergenerational shared lifetime": the time that members of multiple generations overlap. Changes in mortality and fertility affect the kinship structure of a population; for example, if longevity increases and fertility remains unchanged, children will share more time with parents and grandparents. This study aims to measure the length of time individuals live with their mothers and the amount of shared life years lost due to maternal premature death, and to analyze these aspects across different socioeconomic groups. Using the matrix formulation of cohort component population projection to describe the dynamics of a kinship network, based on mortality and fertility data stratified by educational attainment as an indicator of SES, this research aims to uncover disparities in these measures between different SES groups. Individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are expected to experience greater and earlier losses in years of shared lifetime with their mothers compared to those from higher socioeconomic groups.

1:30 PM: Gabriel Borges - Content Error Analysis of the 2022 Census in Brazil Using the Post-Enumeration Survey

The Census is a vital source of data for understanding living conditions across nations. National Statistical Offices invest heavily to ensure these surveys achieve high coverage and quality. Despite these efforts, censuses are complex operations subject to errors, making evaluations of census coverage and quality essential. This talk presents the initial findings on content error from the Post-Enumeration Survey of Brazil's 2022 Census. The results explore key variables such as geographic coordinates, household relationships, race, age, sex, and literacy, providing insights into the complexities of the data collection process.

2:00 PM: César Marques - Multidimensional population projections in Brazil subnational areas: challenges and possibilities

This presentation highlight some of the main challenges, possibilities and results from subnational multidimensional population projections in contexts of lack of quality data. To this, we use the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) set of narratives and scenarios adopted at IPCC reports, which contains assumptions about mortality, fertility, and migration by age, sex, and level of education for all countries of the world. The projection was made for the 27 Brazilian states from 2022-2062 by 3 SSP scenarios: sustainability (SSP1), middle-of-the-road (SSP2), and regional rivalry (SSP3). The approach contain the use of novel data (including the 2024 version of the data used by SSP and the Brazilian 2022 Demographic Census), the incorporation of population heterogeneity at a subnational level, and the explicit use of scenarios. Our results indicate a maximum population of 217 million inhabitants by 2040, a significantly smaller population than previously projected by the Brazilian National Statistical Office and the United Nations (approximately 233 million inhabitants). This is closely related to demographic dynamics resulting from the general increase of the relative and absolute numbers of population with higher levels of education and of people over 65 years old. These trends indicates important shits in population structures in the close future across the country.


Please register via email (office-myrskyla@demogr.mpg.de) for online participation. The Zoom link will be sent to you afterwards.

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.