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Publications

MPIDR Working Papers and Preprints

since 2025 2011–2024 1996–2010 all

Vecgaile, L.; Härkönen, J.:

The effects of fertility timing on women’s wages: a comparison of Germany and the United Kingdom

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-033. (2026)

Vecgaile, L.:

Convergence and divergence: from life-course trajectories to age 50 to projections of gendered old-age income inequality in Germany

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-032. (2026)

Vecgaile, L.:

The timing of poverty prevention: how early can women’s near-retirement poverty risk be detected?

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-031. (2026)

Donzowa, J.; Perrotta, D.; Feehan, D.; Zagheni, E.:

Fertility measurement in data-constrained settings: possibilities and limitations of a Facebook-recruited network reporting survey in Senegal

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-030. (2026)

Akbaritabar, A.; Theile, T.; Zagheni, E.:

Bilateral flows and rates of subnational and international migration of scholars worldwide by gender and field

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-029. (2026)

Leone P., L.; Counil, E.; Perrotta, D.:

Family echo chambers and COVID-19 vaccine uptake: longitudinal evidence from the UK

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-028. (2026)

Micheletti, C.; Strozza, C.; van Raalte, A. A.; Permanyer, I.:

Compression or expansion of morbidity: evaluating life expectancy with and without cardiovascular diseases in Denmark

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-027. (2026)

Zhou, H.; Akbaritabar, A.; Sun, M.; Zagheni, E.; Nunes Amaral, L. A.:

A natural experiment reveals the impact of geopolitical shocks on the trajectory of a nation’s scientific enterprise

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-026. (2026)

Gualdi, R.; Conte Keivabu, R.:

Geographical heterogeneity in temperature-related deaths in Europe

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-025. (2026)

Conte Keivabu, R.; Rubio-Cabanez, M.:

Wildfires and birth outcomes: evidence from Spain

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-024. (2026)

Mason, M.; Noel, S.; Rosenquist Ohlsson, L.; Salim, Z.; Conte Keivabu, R.; Perrotta, D.; Şanlitürk, A. E.:

Unequal adaptation: socioeconomic stratification in short-term mobility responses to wildfire hazards in Spain

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-023. (2026)

Peters, S.; Gaml-Sørensen, A.; Ramlau-Hansen, C. H.; Strandberg-Larsen, K.; Torvik, F. A.; Myrskylä, M.:

Childhood behavior and sexual debut in adolescence: a Danish National Birth Cohort study

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-022. (2026)

Haskell-Craig, Z.; Ronnkvist, S.; Robinson, A.; Bovienzo, D.; Conte Keivabu, R.; Hauer, M.; Zagheni, E.:

Not just heat: place-based vulnerability to temperature extremes overestimated in Europe without including measures of adaptive capacity

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-021. (2026)

Dańko, M. J.; Del Fava, E.; Wiśniowski, A.; Zagheni, E.:

Modeling international migration flows by integrating multiple data sources

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-020. (2026)

Kim, J. S.; Carrasco Armijo, J. I.; Vishnoi, S.; Liang, Y.; Lauber, M.; Cortes, J. D.; Akbaritabar, A.; Basellini, U.; Zagheni, E.:

Global improvements in the representation of women in science are stalling

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-019. (2026)

Slocombe, H.; Rowe, F.; Akbaritabar, A.:

Global sequencing of researcher migration reveals factors associated with disparities in subnational patterns of brain gain and drain

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-018. (2026)

Tun Mendicuti, A.; Masferrer, C.; Mulder, C. H.; Zagheni, E.:

The role of family networks in male Mexican migration to the United States over time

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-017. (2026)

Barron, B.; Hall, M.; Rich, P.; Cohen, I.; Arias, T.:

When all measures fail the same way: a fundamental correction to American segregation trends

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-016. (2026)

Dierker, P.; Skirbekk, V. F.:

Grandparenthood related to reduced risk of gray divorce: evidence from 15 countries

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-015. (2026)

Pojman, E.; Hong, C.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

Queer family matters: estimates of queer kinship in the United States

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-014. (2026)

Afable, S. B. D.; Mikolai, J.; Evans, M.; Korhonen, K.; Vierboom, Y. C.; Martikainen, P.; Kulu, H.; Myrskylä, M.:

Nearby children, longer lives? Evidence from the Finnish population register

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-013. (2026)

Fernández Soto, M.; Escoto, A.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Williams, I.:

The role of kinship networks in childcare at birth: evidence from three Latin American countries

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-012. (2026)

Kannankeril Joseph, V. J.:

Growing up in a warming world: temperature and child health in India

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-011. (2026)

Dierker, P.; Ophir, A.; Hiekel, N.:

From dating to marriage: changes in short-term fertility intentions across partnership transitions

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-010. (2026)

Akbaritabar, A.; Castro Torres, A. F.; Zagheni, E.:

Internationally mobile researchers contribute to scientific production far beyond their share in the population

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-009. (2026)

Hiilamo, A.; Sedovic , M.; Kailaheimo-Björkqvist, S.; Villadsen , A.; Ploubidis, G.B.; Myrskylä, M.:

Patterns of childhood internalising and externalising symptoms and lifetime fertility in the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-008. (2026)

Wright, K. Q.; Şanlitürk, A. E.; Mann, E. S.:

Ideology over evidence: pronatalist media discourse and its (dis)connection from U.S. fertility trends

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-007. (2026)

Schlueter, B.-S.; Bruno, S.; Alexander, M. J.:

A Bayesian parametric model to estimate and reconstruct male age-specific fertility rates

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-006. (2026)

Schlueter, B.-S.; Root, L.; Alexander, M. J.:

Trends and patterns in childlessness by age, race, ethnicity, and education in the United States: a research note

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-005. (2026)

Neville, R.; Anastasiadou, A.:

Gender dynamics in international student mobility: the case of the United Kingdom

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-004. (2026)

Tsai, C.-J.:

Self-protection or “othering” discrimination? How information sources link perceived threats and avoidance behaviors toward immigrants during the COVID-19 pandemic

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-003. (2026)

Bister, L.; Dierker, P.:

Parental separation and the accumulation of stress during early life: a pubertal development marker approach

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-002. (2026)

Hiilamo, A.; Fugletveit , R.; Pitkänen, J.; Moretti, M.; Martikainen, P.; Hermansen, Å.; Myrskylä, M.:

Children´s out-of-home care across Finnish and Norwegian regions: lifetime risks, expected length, and care leaving routes for synthetic cohorts

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2026-001. (2026)

Breen, C. F.; Bailey, M.; Rivera, V.; Zagheni, E.; Redmiles, E.:

Evidence of a migration preparatory phase in global social network data

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2026)

Carollo, A.; Eilers, P. H. C.; Putter, H.; Gampe, J.:

TwoTimeScales: an R-package for smoothing hazards with two time scales

arXiv e-prints 2603.13009. unpublished. (2026)

Castro Torres, A. F.; Giner-Miguelez, J.; Crosas, M.:

When AI meets science: research diversity, interdisciplinarity, visibility, and retractions across disciplines in a global surge

arXiv e-prints 2605.06033. unpublished. (2026)

Colasurdo, A.; Mulder, C. H.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

The role of migration history and household structure in internal migration: evidence from the Netherlands, 1850-1940

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2026)

Dowd, J. B.; Schöley, J.; Polizzi, A.; Aburto, J. M.; Jaadla, H.; Lei, H.; Kashyap, R.:

Temporary shock or lasting scar? Life expectancy trajectories since COVID-19

medRxiv preprints. unpublished. (2026)

Klein, J. D.:

Mobility measurement and network structure shape mortality inequalities in epidemic simulations

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2026)

Kniffka, M. S.; Ullrich-Kniffka, N.; Bertens, L. C. M.; Been, J. V.; Lee, D. S.; Koenigbauer, J. T.; Goepfrich, A.; Schöley, J.:

Changing spatial access to obstetric care in Germany from 2014 to 2024

medRxiv preprints. unpublished. (2026)

Afable, S. B. D.; Evans, M.; Vierboom, Y. C.; Korhonen, K.; Martikainen, P.; Mikolai, J.; Myrskylä, M.; Kulu, H.:

Who moves where? A family ties perspective on later-life health decline and residential mobility in Finland

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-037. (2025)

Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Meslé, F.; Jasilionis, D.; Janssen, F.:

Analysis of intra-annual mortality fluctuations by cause of death in Italy

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-036. (2025)

Hiilamo, A.; Oberndorfer, M.:

Partial basic income has positive and no heterogenous effects on mental health: an analysis of the Finnish basic income randomized experiment among people in unemployment

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-035. (2025)

Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist, S.; Metsä-Simola, N.; Myrskylä, M.:

From early to fewer first births: ADHD and family formation among young adults

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-034. (2025)

Miranda, M. L.; Basellini, U.; Acosta, E.; Zagheni, E.:

How period life expectancy can distort our interpretation of mortality crises

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-033. (2025)

Vasiakina, M.; Dudel, C.:

The hidden costs of technological change: investigating pathways through which highly automatable jobs undermine workers’ health in Germany

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-032. (2025)

John, B. M.; Yeatman , S.:

Marital dissolution, repartnering, and the realization of fertility desires in Sub-Saharan Africa

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-031. (2025)

Rao, Z.; Hellstrand, J.; Myrskylä, M.:

Educational tracking and fertility

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-030. (2025)

Hellstrand, J.; Andersson, L.; Dommermuth, L.; Fallesen, P.; Jónsson, A. K.; Jalovaara, M.; Myrskylä, M.:

Growing divergences: a research note forecasting ultimate childlessness by education in the Nordic countries

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-029. (2025)

Rottenkolber, A.; Ali, O.; Mónus, G.; Li, J.; Kim, J.; Perrotta, D.; Akbaritabar, A.:

It's who you know — unless you’re famous: professional networks and prestige in scholarly mobility

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-028. (2025)

Vasiakina, M.; Dudel, C.:

The glass is half empty: the role of highly automatable jobs in shaping drinking behaviors in Russia

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-027. (2025)

Bassoli, E.; Eibich, P.; Zai, E.:

The mental health consequences of spousal bereavement

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-026. (2025)

Schubert, H.-A.; Dudel, C.:

Subnational birth squeezes: male-female TFR differences across eight high- and middle-income countries over time

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-025. (2025)

Jiang, S.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Chung, P. H.; Alexander, M. J.:

Measuring kinship dependency: a cross-national comparison across care regimes

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-024. (2025)

Ponkilainen, M.; Einiö, E.; Kolk, M.; Fallesen, P.; Torvik, F. A.; Andersen, M. L.; Myrskylä, M.:

Changing landscapes of parenthood: childbearing among same-sex and different-sex couples in the Nordic countries

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-023. (2025)

Rowold, C.; Gädecke, M.; Van Winkle, Z.:

Rethinking children’s family complexity: a multi-conceptual approach with dynamic sequence analysis and fixed effects models

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-022. (2025)

Jiang, S.; Liang, H.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Zagheni, E.:

Human capital investment helps mitigate family caregiving challenges in aging China

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-021. (2025)

Calderón-Bernal, L. P.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Kolk, M.; Zagheni, E.:

Assessing the agreement between microsimulated and register-based kin counts in Sweden

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-020. (2025)

Stonkute, D.; Lorenti, A.; Korhonen, K.; Martikainen, P.; Myrskylä, M.:

Downstream of hearing loss: a population-based multistate analysis of lifetime risk and years lived with hearing loss, dementia and their comorbidity in Finland

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-019. (2025)

Kannankeril Joseph, V. J.; Conte Keivabu, R.; Muttarak, R.; Zagheni, E.; Mazzuco, S.:

Harvesting effect and extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-018. (2025)

Feraldi, A.; Dudel, C.:

Smoking and the length of working life: an examination using the U.S. health and retirement study

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-017. (2025)

Shi, S.; Loi, S.:

Loneliness as a pathway to immigrant health decline: a longitudinal mediation analysis in Germany

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-015. (2025)

Dierker, P.; Kühn, M.; Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist, S.; Myrskylä, M.:

Enduring links: mental health effects of ex-partner’s life events among separated parents

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-014. (2025)

Marinetti, I.; Jdanov, D. A.; Jasilionis, D.; Nepomuceno, M. R.; Janssen, F.:

Seasonal mortality and its impact on spatial inequality in life expectancy across Italy

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-013. (2025)

Trigos-Raczkowski, C.; Wright, K. Q.; Pitkänen, J.; Loi, S.; Martikainen, P.; Moustgaard, H.; Myrskylä, M.:

First formal romantic unions among 1^st, 2^nd, and 2.5 generations of immigrant women in Finland

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-012. (2025)

Afable, S. B. D.; Evans, M.; Korhonen, K.; Vierboom, Y. C.; Martikainen, P.; Myrskylä, M.; Kulu, H.:

Are ageing parents and adult children living farther apart? Decomposing trends in intergenerational distance and co-residence in Finland (2003-2017)

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-011. (2025)

Kailaheimo-Lönnqvist, S.; Nisén, J.; Metsä-Simola, N.; Martikainen, P.; Myrskylä, M.:

Different mental health disorders and childlessness: the importance of partnership status

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-010. (2025)

Stonkute, D.; Lorenti, A.; Hale, J. M.:

Institutional contexts and cognitive health inequalities: an analysis of educational gradients and gender differences in cognitive health expectancy in Europe

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-009. (2025)

Wu, M.; Loi, S.; Lee, D. S.; del Rey Poveda, A.:

Bridging the gap? The moderating role of non-parental childcare use in the gap in maternal employment between immigrants and non-immigrants

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-008. (2025)

Peters, S.; Barclay, K. J.; Mynarska, M. A.; Myrskylä, M.:

Consistent patterns across birth parities? Psychological measures and birth parity transitions among Swedish men

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-007. (2025)

Hiilamo, A.; Hermansen, Å.:

Financial strain in Norway: the lifetime risk of and expected time spent in payment problems

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-006. (2025)

Tyagi, R.; Baranowska-Rataj, A.; Gugushvili, A.:

Adult children’s unemployment and parental mental health in India: social and economic moderators

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-005. (2025)

Akbaritabar, A.; Carrasco Armijo, J. I.; Anastasiadou, A.:

Gender dynamics in international migration and social networks

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-004. (2025)

Adhikari, S.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

The future of grandparenthood in South Asia: the role of population aging and educational expansion

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-003. (2025)

Dierker, P.; Kühn, M.; Van Winkle, Z.:

The role of family complexity in mental and physical health in mid-adulthood

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-002. (2025)

Hellstrand, J.; Nisén, J.; Myrskylä, M.:

Economic uncertainty and men’s fertility: analysing the 2010s fertility decline in Finland by field of education and employment characteristics

MPIDR Working Paper WP-2025-001. (2025)

Abrams, L. R.; Jiang, S.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Acosta, E.; Zagheni, E.:

Adverse mortality trends have increased the number bereaved in the United States

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Baik, K.; Kim, J.:

Analyzing the discourse around Russo-Ukrainian war in Germany: understanding variances in public stances

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Basellini, U.; Camarda, C. G.:

Forecasting cohort mortality: Lee–Carter methods and CCP-splines

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Basilone, R.; Bergamin, E.; Fanelli, F.; Kotov, E.; Morelle, K.; Klamm, A.; Nhili, M.; Rosen, J.; Schendl, A.; Holubowska, O.; Renninger, A.; Smolak, K.:

Preliminary analysis of Sus scrofa movement using Hidden Markov Models and Networks

arXiv e-prints 2506.22138. unpublished. (2025)

Colasurdo, A.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Mulder, C. H.:

Geographical dispersal of kin in Europe and the United States: 1700-1900

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Hünteler, B. M.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.:

Projecting generational placement trajectories: empirical and simulated populations in Norway

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Hünteler, B. M.; Hank, K.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Leopold, T.:

A typology of nuclear and extended family relations in the United States

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Hünteler, B. M.; Hank, K.; Alburez-Gutierrez, D.; Leopold, T.:

Younger adults' nuclear and extended family relationships in Europe: a latent class analysis

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Kim, J.; Weber, I. G.; Zagheni, E.:

The grass really is greener on the other side: immigration and changes in expressed sentiments online

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Klein, J. D.:

A mechanistic framework for modeling social gradients in emerging infectious disease mortality: evidence from Brazil

medRxiv preprints. unpublished. (2025)

Klein, J. D.:

Counting the uncounted: investigating the "other" ancestry category in the American Community Survey

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Leger, A.-E.; Rizzi, S.; Basellini, U.:

Modelling and short-term forecasting of seasonal mortality

arXiv e-prints 2502.10787. unpublished. (2025)

Martins de Almeida, A.; Strozza, C.; Rentería, E.:

Using the orphanhood method to explore the association between children’s education and maternal survival in Chile

OSF preprints. unpublished. (2025)

Maskileyson, D.; Hünteler, B. M.:

Unequal returns? Wealth and debt gradients in health among immigrants and natives in Norway

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Moretti, M.; Korhonen, K.; van Raalte, A. A.; Riffe, T.; Martikainen, P.:

Evolution of widowhood lifespan and its gender and educational inequalities in Finland over three decades

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Tahmassebpur, J.; Li, B.; Barron, B.; Abruña, H.; Frazier, P.; Arias, T.:

Effective Atom Theory: gradient-driven ab initio materials design

arXiv e-prints 2509.07180. unpublished. (2025)

Vecgaile, L.; Spata, A.; Vecchietti, L. F.; Zagheni, E.:

Predicting individual life trajectories: addressing uncertainty in social employment transitions

SocArXiv papers. unpublished. (2025)

Zhao, X.; Thoma, A. I.; Hertwig, R.; Wulff, D. U.:

Mapping the gender attrition gap in academic psychology

arXiv e-prints 2510.13273. unpublished. (2025)

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