Scientific Presentations
LabTalks@DCD
Department of Digital and Computational Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, January 22, 2025
Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher, Assistant Professor at the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop) at the University of Southern Denmark gives a talk on “Modeling and forecasting healthy life expectancy with Compositional Data Analysis”.
Abstract
Will the extra years of life gained by the increase in life expectancy be lived in good or poor health? As forecasts support social, economic and medical decisions, as well as individuals' choices, there is a clear rationale for forecasting healthy life expectancy (HLE). However, only a limited number of models is available to forecast HLE. We here suggest two models to forecast health and mortality simultaneously and coherently. One model is based on the Sullivan method to estimate HLE and the second one on the multistate life table method. Both models use Compositional Data Analysis (CoDA) to account for the coherence between health and mortality. Mortality and health at age 50 and above is forecast for French, Spanish, Swedish and UK females. Both models provide non significantly different estimates and forecasts of HLE, in most cases. In addition, the models improve forecast accuracy compared with other forecast models.
About
Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher is an Associate Professor at the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop) at the University of Southern Denmark. She is a demographer interested in the study of human mortality, longevity and ageing, with a particular interest in exploring new demographic methods to help understand and forecast changes in health and mortality in industrialised societies.
Register to Take Part
You would like to attend the Seminar Talk online? You are very welcome. Please register by using this link: survey.demogr.mpg.de
LabTalks@DCD January 22nd from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. (Rostock time)