Scientific Presentations
LabTalks@DCD
Department of Digital and Computational Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, February 05, 2025
11:00 AM: Talk with Linda Vecgaile - Predicting Life Course Sequences: Addressing Uncertainty in Career Transitions
Abstract
Life course sequences are complex trajectories of interconnected events that shape individuals' futures in multifaceted ways. Traditional life course research often predicts single life events at specific stages, overlooking the sequential and dynamic nature of individual lives. Additionally, these approaches tend to be deterministic, without accounting for the inherent uncertainty and potential alternative pathways individuals may encounter. In this study, we adapt a Transformer architecture to predict sequences of future life events focusing on individuals in Germany between ages 56 and 60. Our model forecasts sequences of future events from which we provide probabilistic assessments of alternative pathways. The analysis of alternative life courses offers a more nuanced and comprehensive understanding of future life trajectories, capturing both the sequential dynamics and the unpredictability inherent in human lives. This framework can inform interventions to support vulnerable populations and enhance labor market policies.
About
Linda Vecgaile is a Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Department of Digital and Computational Demography. She holds a PhD in Political and Social Sciences from the European University Institute, Italy. Her research focuses on adapting natural language processing (NLP) models to predict life course sequences, offering insights into individuals' familial and career trajectories. Her work also explores the broader implications of these patterns for social inequalities and policy development.
Online Seminar Talk, February, 05th from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. (Rostock time)