Scientific Presentations

LabTalks­@DCD

Department of Digital and Computational Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, March 12, 2025

11:00 AM: Talk with Marco Cozzani - Changes in Conception Rates Influence Preterm Birth Rates at the Population Level

Abstract

Seasonality in both conceptions and births, as well as in birth outcomes such as low birth weight and preterm birth, is a well-known empirical pattern. However, the link between these phenomena has received surprisingly little attention. In this article, we argue that seasonality can be understood as a series of consecutive conception shocks, and we explore how these shocks can influence birth outcomes. Drawing on birth certificate data from the United States (2010–2019), we examine how the number of conceptions is linked with birth outcomes—mainly preterm births—in three ways. First, we formalize the relationship between conceptions and birth outcomes, simulating how changes in conception rates affect birth outcomes. Second, we analyze the temporal relationship between changes in conception rates and birth outcomes. Third, we estimate the impact of seasonality in conceptions on birth outcomes across different U.S. population groups. Our results show a link between the number of conceptions and the distribution of preterm births, such that a decline in conceptions will lead to a decrease in PTB eight months later, whereas an increase will lead to the opposite pattern. This link is stronger among groups with higher incidences of preterm birth, such as Black Americans. Seasonality in conceptions accounts for about one-tenth of the seasonality in birth outcomes, and this proportion increases among groups with higher incidence rates. This study offers new insights into the demographic determinants of health at birth at the population level.

About

Marco Cozzani is an Assistant Professor of Demography at the University of Florence, Italy. His main research interests include population and children's health, fertility, social stratification, child development, parental responses, fetal origins, quantitative methods, and causal inference.
 

Room 400

Register to Take Part

You would like to attend the Online Seminar Talk? You are very welcome. Please register by writing an e-mail to office-zagheni@demogr.mpg.de.

Online Seminar Talk, March, 12th from 11:00 a.m. to 12 p.m. (Rostock time)